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Systems and sectors at baseline

6 min read0 figures2 tables15 notesNR-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Brazil’s risk runs through water, forest and fire
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
    1. 3.1 Where each system stood at evidence close
    2. 3.2 Domain posture
    3. 3.3 Sector screens
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Strong El Niño drought across rivers, hydropower and fire
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

WAT · Water

People using safely managed drinking water

88.6%

Safely managed sanitation reached 55.0%. Sewage collection data were not bound.

Reported2024World Bank WDI22

ENE · Energy

Renewable share of electricity supply

86.8%

Hydropower fell 4.8% in 2025 and gas generation rose 22.7%.

Reported2025EPE10

FOO · Food

Grain harvest, agency estimate, crop year 2025/26

360.8Mt

Soybeans are estimated at 180.5 Mt on 83.5 million hectares.

Reported2025/26CONAB24

HLT · Health

Dengue deaths confirmed

5,972deaths

6,484,890 probable cases in 2024; 908 further deaths were under investigation.

Reported2024Ministry of Health17

BIO · Biodiversity

Amazon deforestation estimate, PRODES

5,796km²

11.08% below the consolidated 2024 rate of 6,518 km².

ReportedAug 2024 to Jul 2025INPE11

SYS · Cross-system

Rio Grande do Sul floods, effects estimated

88.9R$ billion

About 2.4 million people affected; 185 deaths confirmed.

Reported2024World Bank, IDB, ECLAC15

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries risk into other systems.

Table 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
DomainPosture at baselineCouplingStatus
WATLarge basins; 88.6% safely managed drinking water, 55.0% safely managed sanitation; floods in the south, low rivers in the Amazon.WAT → ENE · WAT → FOO · WAT ↔ INFReported EQL 4
ENE86.8% renewable power; hydropower about half of generation; gas rises when rivers fall.ENE ← WAT · ENE → allReported EQL 5
FOOLarge grain and oilseed output; outside the FAO Hunger Map; fertiliser dependence not bound.FOO ← WAT, CLI, TRDReported EQL 4
HLTLife expectancy 76.6 years; dengue load in 2024; heat deaths not bound.HLT ← CLI, WATReported EQL 3
BIOForest 58.5% of land; 29.4% of territory protected; deforestation falling, fire volatile.BIO ↔ WAT, FOO, CLIReported EQL 4
CLIWarmest year on record in 2024; drought and flood extremes; strong El Niño outlook.forcing on all systemsReported EQL 4
INFRiver transport and ports exposed to low water; levees and drainage tested in 2024.INF → allInferred EQL 3
FINGross debt 93.3% of GDP; policy rate 14.0%; climate-risk rules for banks since 2022.FIN ← CLI, WATReported EQL 3
DATDigital dependencies of lifelines not mapped at public-safe resolution.DAT → ENE, FINExpert input EQL 2
AICData-centre and compute demand on the power system not bound.AIC → ENE, WATExpert input EQL 2
MINMining and critical minerals not assessed in this edition.MIN ← TRDExpert input EQL 1
TRDLarge agricultural exporter; exports depend on rivers, roads and ports.TRD → allInferred EQL 3

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened on the same grammar, so that later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Table 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
CodeSectorBaseline evidenceExposure to watchEvidence coverage
GS-00Cross-systemdrought, fire and flood on one hydrological cyclestrong El Niño droughtPARTIAL
GS-01Water88.6% safely managed drinking water22floods; river lowsPARTIAL
GS-02Energy86.8% renewable power10hydro shortfall; thermal dispatchGOOD
GS-03Foodharvest estimate 360.8 Mt24logistics and input shocksPARTIAL
GS-04Healthdengue 202417; ageing2heat, smoke and vector loadPARTIAL
GS-05Financegross debt 93.3% of GDP46disaster fiscal costPARTIAL
GS-06Developmentpoverty 23.1% in 20244regional gapsPARTIAL
GS-07Climatewarmest year 202420drought and heavy rainGOOD
GS-08Disastercivil protection law30floods; landslidesTHIN
GS-09Infrastructurelevees and ports in 202415river lows; flood defencesTHIN
GS-10Citieslarge metropolitan regionsurban flooding and heatTHIN
GS-11Biodiversityforest 58.5% of land22fire; conversionGOOD
GS-12Earth observationPRODES since 198811continuityGOOD
GS-13Cyber and digitaldependencies not yet mappedsystemic outagesTHIN
GS-14Policyclimate policy and carbon market2629coordination across levelsPARTIAL
GS-15Sciencestrong national and Amazon science base4044translation to regionsPARTIAL

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 22World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: forest area (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), terrestrial and marine protected areas (ER.PTD.TOTL.ZS), people using safely managed drinking water and sanitation services (SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS, SH.STA.SMSS.ZS), Brazil. World Bank, Washington DC, data release of 8 October 2026, which post-dates evidence close; see the edition notes. Observation year: 2024 (forest, water, sanitation) and 2025 (protected areas).back
  2. 10Empresa de Pesquisa Energética (ed.), Balanço Energético Nacional 2026: Relatório Síntese, ano base 2025. EPE and Ministério de Minas e Energia, Rio de Janeiro, 3 June 2026, updated 31 July 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
  3. 24Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (ed.), 11º Levantamento da Safra de Grãos 2025/26, released 13 August 2026, as reported by Agência Brasil. CONAB, Brasília. Observation year: 2025/26 (agency estimate).back
  4. 17Ministério da Saúde (ed.), Painel de Monitoramento das Arboviroses, data to 28 December 2024, as reported by Agência Brasil, “Casos de dengue em 2024 passam de 6,4 milhões; mortes somam 5,9 mil,” January 2025. Observation year: 2024.back
  5. 11Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (ed.), Estimativa de desmatamento na Amazônia Legal para 2025 é de 5.796 km², Nota técnica, Programa BiomasBR (PRODES). INPE, São José dos Campos, October 2025. Observation year: 2025 (August 2024 to July 2025).back
  6. 15World Bank, Inter-American Development Bank and ECLAC (eds.), “BID, CEPAL e Grupo Banco Mundial estimam que atuação tempestiva evitou impacto de 1,1 ponto percentual do PIB no Rio Grande do Sul,” press release on the joint Damage and Loss Assessment of the 2024 floods. World Bank, Brasília, 28 November 2024. Observation year: 2024.back
  7. 2Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (ed.), Censo Demográfico 2022: população residente por sexo e idade (SIDRA table 9514). IBGE, Rio de Janeiro. Observation year: 2022.back
  8. 46International Monetary Fund (ed.), “IMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with Brazil,” Press Release No. 26/257, with staff projections. IMF, Washington DC, 23 July 2026. Observation year: 2025 (staff estimates) and 2026.back
  9. 4Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (ed.), Síntese de Indicadores Sociais 2025. IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 3 December 2025, as reported in the press on the day of release. Observation year: 2024.back
  10. 20Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (ed.), balanço climático de 2024: annual mean temperature 25.02 °C, 0.79 °C above the 1991 to 2020 mean, warmest year since 1961, as reported by Brazilian press, January 2025. INMET, Brasília. Observation year: 2024.back
  11. 30República Federativa do Brasil (ed.), Lei nº 12.608, de 10 de abril de 2012, institui a Política Nacional de Proteção e Defesa Civil. Diário Oficial da União, Brasília, 2012. Observation year: 2012.back
  12. 26República Federativa do Brasil (ed.), Lei nº 15.042, de 11 de dezembro de 2024, institui o Sistema Brasileiro de Comércio de Emissões de Gases de Efeito Estufa (SBCE). Diário Oficial da União, Brasília, 2024. Observation year: 2024.back
  13. 29República Federativa do Brasil (ed.), Lei nº 12.187, de 29 de dezembro de 2009, institui a Política Nacional sobre Mudança do Clima. Diário Oficial da União, Brasília, 2009. Observation year: 2009.back
  14. 40B. M. Flores, A. Montoya, I. Staal et al., “Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system,” Nature, vol. 626, pp. 555–564, 2024. Observation year: 2024.back
  15. 44J.-C. Espinoza, J. C. Jimenez, J. A. Marengo et al., “The new record of drought and warmth in the Amazon in 2023 related to regional and global climatic features,” Scientific Reports, vol. 14, article 8107, 2024. Observation year: 2023.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 3: Systems and sectors at baseline. In Brazil Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Brazil’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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