Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Brazil’s risk runs through water, forest and fire

Part I describes systems and their couplings. It assesses no authority and ranks no state.

8 min read2 figures2 tables21 notesNR-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Brazil’s risk runs through water, forest and fire
    1. 1.1 The questions this part answers
    2. 1.2 The argument
    3. 1.3 Twenty couplings between five systems
    4. 1.4 Reinforcing loops
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Strong El Niño drought across rivers, hydropower and fire
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

  • Where is Brazil’s risk concentrated, and in which systems?
  • Which couplings carry shocks from one system to the next?
  • Which capabilities hold under compound stress, and which are only documented?
  • What must the 2027 programme measure first?

In this part

  • Narrative
  • Headline finding
  • Lead figure
  • Five system chapters
  • Twelve-domain reading
  • Sector screens
  • Dependency matrix
  • Risk objects
  • Capability ladder
  • Scenario
  • Three lenses
  • Portfolio

1.2The argument

Brazil is a continental country with five macro-regions, 27 federative units and 214.2 million residents1. Its systems are large, varied and tied to the same climate drivers. This baseline reads its exposure as three forces acting together: a hydrological cycle that swings between flood and drought, a forest and savanna estate under pressure from land conversion and fire, and an energy and food economy that depends on both.

The hydrological swing is now visible in records. The Negro River at Manaus fell to 12.70 m in October 2023 and to 12.66 m in October 2024, record lows in a gauge series that begins in 19022144. In April and May 2024, floods in Rio Grande do Sul affected about 2.4 million people, and the joint World Bank, IDB and ECLAC assessment put their effects at R$88.9 billion1516. The regional climate report for 2025 describes record heat, persistent drought and extreme rainfall across the region18.

The land layer is changing in the right direction, with limits. PRODES estimated Amazon deforestation at 5,796 km² for August 2024 to July 2025, and MapBiomas counted deforestation below 1 million hectares nationally for the first time in 20251112. Fire remains the larger swing: about 30 million hectares burned in 2024, and about 12.7 million in 20251314. Gross emissions fell 16.7% in 2024, yet net emissions stay above the 2035 range89.

The energy layer is among the cleanest in the world by share, and it is hydrological. Renewables supplied 86.8% of electricity in 2025, hydropower provided about half of generation, and when hydropower fell 4.8% gas generation rose 22.7%10. Food is the other large economic layer: the 2025/26 grain harvest is estimated at 360.8 Mt24, and Brazil remained outside the FAO Hunger Map7.

Beneath these sit population and finance. Life expectancy is 76.6 years and the share aged 65 or over was 10.9% in 202225. General government gross debt was 93.3% of GDP in 2025 on IMF definitions46, which bears on how disasters are financed.

This edition therefore reads Brazil’s risk as a property of the couplings between rivers, forests, power and food. The matrix, risk objects, capability ladder and scenario that follow ask the same two questions: where does a shock travel next, and who holds the capability to stop it?

Figure 1.1How far is Brazil from its 2035 range? Emissions and target (Mt CO₂e)

Net emissions in 2024 were about 440 Mt above the upper end of the 2035 range and about 640 Mt above the lower end. The comparison mixes the SEEG series with the inventory-based target, so it is indicative (INFERRED)89.

ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
2005 net (inventory)2560
2024 gross (SEEG)2145
2024 net (SEEG)1490
2035 range, upper end1050

Source: as cited in the note to this figure. Year 2024.

Figure ID FIG-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-01-003

442.3Mt CO₂e

energy-sector emissions, 202510

249Mt CO₂e

net land-use emissions, 20249

626Mt CO₂e

agriculture, gross, 20249

2050climate neutrality

stated goal8

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The Brazil matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

Figure 1.2Couplings between the five systems

Each line is one coupling from one system to another, drawn by the strength the edition assigns. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events.

  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Weak

Source: this edition’s coupling matrix (Table 1.1); status Estimated.

Table 1.1Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system
From, toWATENEFOOHLTBIO
WAT Water·STRONG
nuclear cooling · hydro		STRONG
irrigation · rain-fed yield		MODERATE
drinking water		STRONG
flows · wetlands
ENE EnergyMODERATE
pumping · treatment		·STRONG
fuel · fertiliser · cold chain		STRONG
facility power · cooling		MODERATE
reservoirs · land use
FOO FoodMODERATE
withdrawals · nutrients		WEAK
biofuel feedstock		·STRONG
nutrition · food safety		STRONG
land conversion
HLT HealthWEAK
workforce		WEAK
workforce		MODERATE
labour · disease		·WEAK
residues
BIO BiodiversitySTRONG
regulation · filtration		MODERATE
fire on lines · biomass		STRONG
pollination · soils		MODERATE
zoonoses · smoke		·
Strength: strong, moderate or weak; a Nexus estimate (status Estimated) from cited evidence and analogue events. The scale is defined in Annex A.

Transmission paths

  1. 01

    CLI → WAT → ENE

    Drought lowers river flows and hydropower, and thermal dispatch rises.

    Inferred hydro −4.8%, gas +22.7%, 202510

  2. 02

    CLI → WAT → INF

    Record river lows interrupt river transport.

    Reported Negro River, 2023 and 20242144

  3. 03

    CLI → BIO → HLT

    Drought and fire raise smoke and heat load on health services.

    Inferred ≈30 million ha burned, 202413

  4. 04

    CLI → INF → FIN

    Floods destroy assets and output, and fall on public budgets.

    Reported Rio Grande do Sul, 202415

  5. 05

    BIO → CLI → FOO

    Forest loss weakens regional moisture recycling that supports crops.

    Inferred literature394043

1.4Reinforcing loops

A shock entering either system of a loop can return amplified through the other.

Table 1.2Pairs of systems where both directions are rated strong
LoopFirst directionSecond direction
WAT and BIOWater to biodiversity: flows · wetlandsBiodiversity to water: regulation · filtration
FOO and BIOFood to biodiversity: land conversionBiodiversity to food: pollination · soils
A causal-loop reading of the matrix (Sterman, Business Dynamics, 2000): structural, from estimated strengths, not a measured feedback.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (ed.), Estimativas da população residente no Brasil e unidades da federação com data de referência em 1º de julho de 2026 (SIDRA table 6579). IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 28 August 2026. Observation year: 2026.back
  2. 21Serviço Geológico do Brasil (ed.), Negro River gauge at the port of Manaus, level of 12.66 m on 4 October 2024, as reported by the Associated Press, “Drought has dried a major Amazon River tributary to its lowest level in over 122 years,” October 2024. SGB, Manaus. Observation year: 2024.back
  3. 44J.-C. Espinoza, J. C. Jimenez, J. A. Marengo et al., “The new record of drought and warmth in the Amazon in 2023 related to regional and global climatic features,” Scientific Reports, vol. 14, article 8107, 2024. Observation year: 2023.back
  4. 15World Bank, Inter-American Development Bank and ECLAC (eds.), “BID, CEPAL e Grupo Banco Mundial estimam que atuação tempestiva evitou impacto de 1,1 ponto percentual do PIB no Rio Grande do Sul,” press release on the joint Damage and Loss Assessment of the 2024 floods. World Bank, Brasília, 28 November 2024. Observation year: 2024.back
  5. 16Governo do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul, Defesa Civil (ed.), “Situação nos municípios,” SOS Rio Grande do Sul, state portal, last updated 19 August 2025. Porto Alegre. Observation year: 2024 (event of April and May 2024).back
  6. 18World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Latin America and the Caribbean 2025. WMO, Geneva, 18 May 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
  7. 11Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (ed.), Estimativa de desmatamento na Amazônia Legal para 2025 é de 5.796 km², Nota técnica, Programa BiomasBR (PRODES). INPE, São José dos Campos, October 2025. Observation year: 2025 (August 2024 to July 2025).back
  8. 12MapBiomas Alerta (ed.), Relatório Anual do Desmatamento no Brasil, RAD 2025: Destaques (factsheet, version of 26 May 2026). MapBiomas, São Paulo, 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
  9. 13MapBiomas (ed.), RAF 2024: primeiro Relatório Anual do Fogo. MapBiomas, São Paulo, 24 June 2025. Observation year: 2024.back
  10. 14MapBiomas (ed.), RAF 2025: segunda edição do Relatório Anual do Fogo no Brasil, released 21 July 2026, as reported by Correio Braziliense, “Área queimada no Brasil cai para 12,7 milhões de hectares em 2025, aponta MapBiomas,” July 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
  11. 8Federative Republic of Brazil (ed.), Brazil’s Nationally Determined Contribution: National determination to contribute and transform (second NDC). Submission to the UNFCCC, Brasília, November 2024. Observation year: 2024 (2005 reference; target year 2035).back
  12. 9Observatório do Clima (ed.), SEEG 13: Análise das emissões brasileiras de gases de efeito estufa e suas implicações para as metas climáticas do Brasil, 1970 a 2024. Observatório do Clima, São Paulo, November 2025, read from press reports and search excerpts of the release because the report PDF returned HTTP 403. Observation year: 2024.back
  13. 10Empresa de Pesquisa Energética (ed.), Balanço Energético Nacional 2026: Relatório Síntese, ano base 2025. EPE and Ministério de Minas e Energia, Rio de Janeiro, 3 June 2026, updated 31 July 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
  14. 24Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (ed.), 11º Levantamento da Safra de Grãos 2025/26, released 13 August 2026, as reported by Agência Brasil. CONAB, Brasília. Observation year: 2025/26 (agency estimate).back
  15. 7FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026. FAO, Rome, 21 July 2026, Brazil results as reported by the Federal Government on 30 July 2026. Observation year: 2023 to 2025.back
  16. 2Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (ed.), Censo Demográfico 2022: população residente por sexo e idade (SIDRA table 9514). IBGE, Rio de Janeiro. Observation year: 2022.back
  17. 5Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (ed.), Tábuas Completas de Mortalidade 2024. IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 28 November 2025, as reported in the press on the day of release. Observation year: 2024.back
  18. 46International Monetary Fund (ed.), “IMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with Brazil,” Press Release No. 26/257, with staff projections. IMF, Washington DC, 23 July 2026. Observation year: 2025 (staff estimates) and 2026.back
  19. 39T. E. Lovejoy and C. Nobre, “Amazon tipping point,” Science Advances, vol. 4, no. 2, eaat2340, 2018. Observation year: 2018.back
  20. 40B. M. Flores, A. Montoya, I. Staal et al., “Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system,” Nature, vol. 626, pp. 555–564, 2024. Observation year: 2024.back
  21. 43R. Rajão, B. Soares-Filho, F. Nunes et al., “The rotten apples of Brazil’s agribusiness,” Science, vol. 369, pp. 246–248, 2020. Observation year: 2020.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 1: Brazil’s risk runs through water, forest and fire. In Brazil Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Brazil’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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Sector signature

The sectors behind Brazil.

A reading aid: the sectors the findings run through and how strongly they depend on each other.

Select corners · hover lines6 / 15 relations

Signature

Water and Biodiversity

Water gives biodiversity environmental flows (0.6): the strongest relations between the sectors this subject joins.

W · E · I · F · H · B

Sectors
4 of 6
Relations
6 of 15
Coupling
0.43 share of total

Strongest relations in play

  • Food → Biodiversity · land conversion0.6
  • Water → Energy · cooling water and hydropower0.6
  • Water → Food · irrigation0.8
  • Water → Biodiversity · environmental flows0.6
Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen.
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