- Brazil 2026
- Chapter 6
Readings from the other desks
The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument. The other desks’ own editions of this subject are listed first, as cross-references, not copies.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Brazil’s risk runs through water, forest and fire
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Strong El Niño drought across rivers, hydropower and fire
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 6.1 The other desks’ editions of this subject
- 6.2 Three lenses
- 6.3 Standards, Academy and steward contributions
- 6.4 GCRI reading: the model card
- 6.5 Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays
- 6.6 Global Risks Alliance reading: q1 2027 readiness pack
- 6.7 Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch
- 6.8 Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject
Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.
| Desk | Edition | State | Identifier |
|---|---|---|---|
| GCRI Systems Evidence | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| GRF Public Deliberation | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| GRA Capital Readiness | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Standards Progress | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit | |
| Academy Capability | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit | |
| Index Measurement | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle |
6.2Three lenses
One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.
GCRI · KEY T
Technical Truth
The evidence supports a coupled reading of Brazil’s risk: drought, flood and fire share one hydrological cycle, and power, food and logistics depend on it. Evidence is strongest for emissions, land cover, energy and floods, and weakest for heat mortality, reserves and lifeline continuity.
CLI-001 · WAT-007 · ENE-005 · SYS-012
GRF · KEY M
Public Meaning
For most people risk arrives as a flood, a smoke-filled season or a dengue wave. The baseline asks that public debate weigh how regional gaps in poverty and services change who recovers fastest.
WAT-007 · HLT-010 · FOO-009
GRA · KEY F
Capital Meaning
Readiness implications only. General government gross debt was 93.3% of GDP in 2025, climate-risk rules for banks have applied since 2022, and an emissions trading system has been legislated262746. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an approval.
FIN-011 · WAT-007
NEXUS
Synthesis
Brazil has world-class monitoring of forests and a very clean grid, and thinner evidence on reserves, continuity and heat health. The 2027 programme should test the drought pathway, bind reservoir and heat data, and measure logistics exposure.
SYS-012 · A-01 · A-02
6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions
How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for Brazil. The standards are preparatory working drafts (October 2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.
| Quarter | Edition | Question | Boundary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | State and Agenda | What matters this year, and what is the starting position? | observed baseline stays distinct from planned work |
| Q2 | Evidence and Build | What new evidence and capability have been developed? | a configured capability is not a validated result |
| Q3 | Stress Test and Readiness | What do scenarios and tests reveal? | simulated loss or performance is not observed impact |
| Q4 | Annual Synthesis and Renewal | What did the year establish, and what changes next? | release follows review, not event publicity deadlines |
| Steward or body | Role | Contribution route |
|---|---|---|
| The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI Canada) | Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat; publisher of record; technical truth (key T) | science and practice communities · GCRI gateway |
| The Global Risks Forum (GRF) | leadership, dialogue and the Universe programme; public meaning (key M) | policy, Universe and national adoption · GRF gateway |
| The Global Risks Alliance (GRA) | finance, insurance and development readiness; capital meaning (key F) | finance and insurance · GRA gateway |
| Nexus Standards | preparatory drafts on vocabulary, hazards, indicators and methods | Standards site · working groups HAZ, IND, MTH, FIN, AI |
| Risk Academy | learning pathways tied to the agenda questions | Academy gateway · learning by review |
| Brazil | national pathway: Desk, Leadership Council, Consortium, Working Groups | national Commons room |
Standards drafts used in this edition
- Risk vocabulary NRS-C1 (424 terms) for terms in the glossary
- Hazard atlas NHS-1 1.1.0 (905 hazards in 120 families) for risk objects
- Seven risk classes: global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier-tech
Standards calendar to watch
- Founding calls from 20 October 2026; working groups meet from 5 November 2026
- Inaugural Global Standards Council session, 12 January 2027
- Quarterly reviews in March, June, September and December, aligned with each edition
6.4GCRI reading: the model card
GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology
6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays
Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.
Flood in the south, drought in the north and fire in the centre are often described as separate problems. The baseline treats them as one hydrological cycle that is moving faster, and reads every system through it.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 01
One cycle, three hazards
Brazil’s electricity is 86.8% renewable, which is an asset. It is also hydrological, so a dry year changes the mix, the emissions and the cost within a single season.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 02
A clean grid that depends on rain
Deforestation and gross emissions fell. Fire burned far more land in 2024 than in 2025, which shows how fast the picture can change. The baseline records the gains and the volatility together.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 03
Progress that has to hold
Heat deaths, sewage collection, reservoir storage and fertiliser dependence were not bound at evidence close. The edition shows each gap, names the source that would fill it and estimates nothing in its place.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 04
Evidence has gaps, and the gaps are shown
6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: q1 2027 readiness pack
The registers that open the first operational quarter. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.
| Item | Register | State at baseline | First Q1 2027 entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| E1 | National risk state delta | baseline set by this edition | changes against the baseline |
| E2 | WEFH+B state delta | five system readings set | indicator updates and freshness |
| E3 | Agenda and Portfolio movement | eight agenda items · 7 proposed objects | admission decisions |
| E4 | NWG delivery register | no groups yet | first monthly outputs |
| E5 | NNC capability register | membership opens in Q1 2027 | first contributions |
| E6 | NLC questions and challenges | none yet | first challenge log |
| E7 | Foundry technical state | environment prepared | first sealed cut |
| E8 | Publication candidates | twelve findings carried forward | PUBLISH · HOLD dispositions |
| E9 | Universe readiness | one candidate mission | admission and role spine |
| E10 | Correction register | none | first correction cycle |
Publication dispositions
- Publish
- Hold
- Needs evidence
- Restricted
- Superseded
6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch
Instruments that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.
- IN FORCE
- ADOPTED
- SUBMITTED
- UNDER REVIEW
- PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY
| Instrument | Body | Scope | Status | Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Agreement34 · second NDC, 59 to 67% net by 20358 | UNFCCC · Brazil | national | SUBMITTED 2024 | emissions pathway |
| National Climate Change Policy, Law 12.187/200929 | Federal Government | national | IN FORCE | climate governance |
| Emissions trading system, Law 15.042/202426 | Federal Government | national | IN FORCE · REGULATION PHASED | carbon pricing |
| Climate and environmental risk rules, CMN Resolution 4.943/202127 | National Monetary Council | financial institutions | IN FORCE | finance |
| Sanitation legal framework, Law 14.026/202028 | Federal Government | national | IN FORCE | water services |
| National Civil Protection Policy, Law 12.608/201230 | Federal Government | national | IN FORCE | disaster management |
| Payments for environmental services, Law 14.119/202131 | Federal Government | national | IN FORCE | forest incentives |
| Kunming-Montreal Framework32 | CBD | international | ADOPTED 2022 | 30by30 |
| Sendai Framework 2015–203033 | UNDRR | international | ADOPTED 2015 | disaster risk |
Changed since 2024
6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments
The review behind this edition covers peer-reviewed science, national and international assessments and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Full systematic reviews begin in Q1 2027 for each agenda item.
Review protocol
- Question
- What does the published evidence establish about Brazil’s coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity risks?
- Sources searched
- peer-reviewed literature; national and international assessments; official releases; industry loss data
- Window
- releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026
- Selection
- sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition
- Next step
- systematic reviews for agenda items A-01 to A-05 in Q1 2027
| Reference | Type | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flores et al.40 | journal article | 2024 | supports | Amazon transitions |
| Lovejoy and Nobre39 | journal article | 2018 | framework | tipping behaviour |
| Boulton et al.41 | journal article | 2022 | supports | resilience loss |
| Lapola et al.42 | journal article | 2023 | supports | forest degradation |
| Espinoza et al.44 | journal article | 2024 | supports | 2023 drought |
| Rajão et al.43 | journal article | 2020 | context | supply chains |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IPCC Working Group II, Chapter 1236 | IPCC | 2022 | context | regional impacts |
| IPCC Synthesis Report35 | IPCC | 2023 | context | forcing |
| IPBES nexus assessment37 | IPBES | 2024 | framework | interlinkages |
| Compound events38 | Nature Climate Change | 2018 | framework | compound events |
| State of the Climate, Latin America18 | WMO | 2026 | supports | regional climate |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deforestation estimate11 | INPE | 2025 | supports | Amazon loss |
| Energy balance10 | EPE · MME | 2026 | supports | power and emissions |
| Population estimates and Census12 | IBGE | 2026 | supports | profile |
| National accounts3 | IBGE | 2026 | supports | economy |
| Social indicators46 | IBGE | 2025 | supports | poverty and food |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deforestation and fire reports121314 | MapBiomas | 2026 | supports | land and fire |
| Emissions estimates9 | SEEG | 2025 | supports | emissions |
| Flood assessment15 | World Bank · IDB · ECLAC | 2024 | supports | losses |
| Article IV report46 | IMF | 2026 | context | fiscal |
Where the evidence agrees
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 26República Federativa do Brasil (ed.), Lei nº 15.042, de 11 de dezembro de 2024, institui o Sistema Brasileiro de Comércio de Emissões de Gases de Efeito Estufa (SBCE). Diário Oficial da União, Brasília, 2024. Observation year: 2024.back
- 27Conselho Monetário Nacional (ed.), Resolução CMN nº 4.943, de 15 de setembro de 2021, gerenciamento de riscos social, ambiental e climático. Banco Central do Brasil, Brasília, 2021. Observation year: 2021 (in force from 2022).back
- 46International Monetary Fund (ed.), “IMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with Brazil,” Press Release No. 26/257, with staff projections. IMF, Washington DC, 23 July 2026. Observation year: 2025 (staff estimates) and 2026.back
- 34UNFCCC (ed.), Paris Agreement. United Nations, Paris, 2015. Observation year: 2015.back
- 8Federative Republic of Brazil (ed.), Brazil’s Nationally Determined Contribution: National determination to contribute and transform (second NDC). Submission to the UNFCCC, Brasília, November 2024. Observation year: 2024 (2005 reference; target year 2035).back
- 29República Federativa do Brasil (ed.), Lei nº 12.187, de 29 de dezembro de 2009, institui a Política Nacional sobre Mudança do Clima. Diário Oficial da União, Brasília, 2009. Observation year: 2009.back
- 28República Federativa do Brasil (ed.), Lei nº 14.026, de 15 de julho de 2020, atualiza o marco legal do saneamento básico. Diário Oficial da União, Brasília, 2020. Observation year: 2020.back
- 30República Federativa do Brasil (ed.), Lei nº 12.608, de 10 de abril de 2012, institui a Política Nacional de Proteção e Defesa Civil. Diário Oficial da União, Brasília, 2012. Observation year: 2012.back
- 31República Federativa do Brasil (ed.), Lei nº 14.119, de 13 de janeiro de 2021, institui a Política Nacional de Pagamento por Serviços Ambientais. Diário Oficial da União, Brasília, 2021. Observation year: 2021.back
- 32Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Observation year: 2022.back
- 33UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Observation year: 2015.back
- 25Ministério das Relações Exteriores (ed.), “Over USD 5.5 billion announced for Tropical Forest Forever Facility as 53 countries endorse the historic TFFF launch declaration.” Government of Brazil, Brasília, November 2025. Observation year: 2025.back
- 40B. M. Flores, A. Montoya, I. Staal et al., “Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system,” Nature, vol. 626, pp. 555–564, 2024. Observation year: 2024.back
- 39T. E. Lovejoy and C. Nobre, “Amazon tipping point,” Science Advances, vol. 4, no. 2, eaat2340, 2018. Observation year: 2018.back
- 41C. A. Boulton, T. M. Lenton and N. Boers, “Pronounced loss of Amazon rainforest resilience since the early 2000s,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 12, 2022. Observation year: 2022.back
- 42D. M. Lapola, P. Pinho, J. Barlow et al., “The drivers and impacts of Amazon forest degradation,” Science, vol. 379, eabp8622, 2023. Observation year: 2023.back
- 44J.-C. Espinoza, J. C. Jimenez, J. A. Marengo et al., “The new record of drought and warmth in the Amazon in 2023 related to regional and global climatic features,” Scientific Reports, vol. 14, article 8107, 2024. Observation year: 2023.back
- 43R. Rajão, B. Soares-Filho, F. Nunes et al., “The rotten apples of Brazil’s agribusiness,” Science, vol. 369, pp. 246–248, 2020. Observation year: 2020.back
- 36E. Castellanos, M. F. Lemos, L. Astigarraga et al., “Central and South America,” in Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Working Group II contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, chapter 12. Cambridge University Press, 2022. Observation year: 2022.back
- 35H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. Observation year: 2023.back
- 37P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. Observation year: 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054back
- 38J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Observation year: 2018.back
- 18World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Latin America and the Caribbean 2025. WMO, Geneva, 18 May 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
- 11Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (ed.), Estimativa de desmatamento na Amazônia Legal para 2025 é de 5.796 km², Nota técnica, Programa BiomasBR (PRODES). INPE, São José dos Campos, October 2025. Observation year: 2025 (August 2024 to July 2025).back
- 10Empresa de Pesquisa Energética (ed.), Balanço Energético Nacional 2026: Relatório Síntese, ano base 2025. EPE and Ministério de Minas e Energia, Rio de Janeiro, 3 June 2026, updated 31 July 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
- 1Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (ed.), Estimativas da população residente no Brasil e unidades da federação com data de referência em 1º de julho de 2026 (SIDRA table 6579). IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 28 August 2026. Observation year: 2026.back
- 2Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (ed.), Censo Demográfico 2022: população residente por sexo e idade (SIDRA table 9514). IBGE, Rio de Janeiro. Observation year: 2022.back
- 3Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (ed.), “PIB cresce 2,3% em 2025 e fecha o ano em R$ 12,7 trilhões,” Contas Nacionais Trimestrais. IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 3 March 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
- 4Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (ed.), Síntese de Indicadores Sociais 2025. IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 3 December 2025, as reported in the press on the day of release. Observation year: 2024.back
- 6Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (ed.), Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios Contínua: Segurança Alimentar 2024. IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 10 October 2025, as reported in the press on the day of release. Observation year: 2024.back
- 12MapBiomas Alerta (ed.), Relatório Anual do Desmatamento no Brasil, RAD 2025: Destaques (factsheet, version of 26 May 2026). MapBiomas, São Paulo, 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
- 13MapBiomas (ed.), RAF 2024: primeiro Relatório Anual do Fogo. MapBiomas, São Paulo, 24 June 2025. Observation year: 2024.back
- 14MapBiomas (ed.), RAF 2025: segunda edição do Relatório Anual do Fogo no Brasil, released 21 July 2026, as reported by Correio Braziliense, “Área queimada no Brasil cai para 12,7 milhões de hectares em 2025, aponta MapBiomas,” July 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
- 9Observatório do Clima (ed.), SEEG 13: Análise das emissões brasileiras de gases de efeito estufa e suas implicações para as metas climáticas do Brasil, 1970 a 2024. Observatório do Clima, São Paulo, November 2025, read from press reports and search excerpts of the release because the report PDF returned HTTP 403. Observation year: 2024.back
- 15World Bank, Inter-American Development Bank and ECLAC (eds.), “BID, CEPAL e Grupo Banco Mundial estimam que atuação tempestiva evitou impacto de 1,1 ponto percentual do PIB no Rio Grande do Sul,” press release on the joint Damage and Loss Assessment of the 2024 floods. World Bank, Brasília, 28 November 2024. Observation year: 2024.back