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Risks and capability

Four risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.

4 min read0 figures1 table11 notesNR-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Brazil’s risk runs through water, forest and fire
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
    1. 4.1 Risk objects
    2. 4.2 Capability ladder
  7. 5Strong El Niño drought across rivers, hydropower and fire
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

  1. ReportedEQL 4RSK-BRA-CLI-001

    Extreme rainfall and river flooding in the south

    Driver
    intense rainfall in a warming climate
    Exposure
    floodplains, cities, farms
    Vulnerability
    levee and pumping design; settlement in flood zones
    Capacity
    civil defence; recovery finance1516
    Cascade
    CLI → WAT → INF, FOO, FIN
    Horizon
    annual

  2. ReportedEQL 4RSK-BRA-CLI-002

    Amazon drought, low rivers and fire

    Driver
    El Niño years on a warming baseline
    Exposure
    river transport, riverine communities, forest
    Vulnerability
    dependence on rivers for supply and logistics
    Capacity
    monitoring and fire brigades; reserves not bound
    Cascade
    CLI → WAT → INF, HLT, BIO
    Horizon
    seasonal

  3. InferredEQL 3RSK-BRA-ENE-003

    Hydropower shortfall in a dry year

    Driver
    below-normal inflows across main basins
    Exposure
    about half of power generation10
    Vulnerability
    basin concentration; storage margin not bound
    Capacity
    gas, biomass, wind and solar growth10
    Cascade
    WAT → ENE → FOO, FIN
    Horizon
    1 to 5 years

  4. InferredEQL 3RSK-BRA-BIO-004

    Amazon forest loss and degradation

    Driver
    land conversion, fire and drought together
    Exposure
    forest, regional rainfall, carbon stock
    Vulnerability
    degradation not captured by clear-cut loss
    Capacity
    monitoring since 198811; falling loss rates
    Cascade
    BIO → CLI → WAT, FOO
    Horizon
    30 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Table 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
FunctionRungLevelStrongest public evidence at baseline
Prevention and mitigationEXISTSAmazon deforestation estimate fell 11.08% in 202511; attribution to policy not assessed
Monitoring and observationDEMONSTRATEDPRODES annual series since 1988 and MapBiomas alerts in continuous use1112
Early warningNOT BOUNDsource: national centre for natural disaster monitoring and civil defence records · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
Preparedness and planningLISTEDnational civil protection law30; drill records not bound
Redundancy and reservesNOT BOUNDsource: national grid operator storage records · blocker: not retrieved
ResponseEXISTSsheltering of up to 581,638 displaced people at the May 2024 peak16
Continuity of critical servicesNOT BOUNDsource: utility restoration records · blocker: not published in bound form
RecoveryLISTEDjoint recovery recommendations published November 202415; durations not bound
AdaptationLISTEDnational adaptation strategy with sixteen sectoral plans named in the contribution8
Social protectionDEMONSTRATEDbenefits cut extreme poverty from 10.0% to 3.5% in 20244
Finance and insuranceEXISTSclimate-risk rules for banks in force since 202227; disaster cover not bound
Institutional coordinationLISTEDInterministerial Committee on Climate Change named in the contribution8
Technical infrastructureEXISTSgrid 86.8% renewable; 64,793 MW solar and 34,707 MW wind installed10
WorkforceNOT BOUNDsource: sector registers · blocker: not retrieved
Research capacityEXISTSstrong peer-reviewed Amazon and climate record4044; wider base not assessed
A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 15World Bank, Inter-American Development Bank and ECLAC (eds.), “BID, CEPAL e Grupo Banco Mundial estimam que atuação tempestiva evitou impacto de 1,1 ponto percentual do PIB no Rio Grande do Sul,” press release on the joint Damage and Loss Assessment of the 2024 floods. World Bank, Brasília, 28 November 2024. Observation year: 2024.back
  2. 16Governo do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul, Defesa Civil (ed.), “Situação nos municípios,” SOS Rio Grande do Sul, state portal, last updated 19 August 2025. Porto Alegre. Observation year: 2024 (event of April and May 2024).back
  3. 10Empresa de Pesquisa Energética (ed.), Balanço Energético Nacional 2026: Relatório Síntese, ano base 2025. EPE and Ministério de Minas e Energia, Rio de Janeiro, 3 June 2026, updated 31 July 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
  4. 11Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (ed.), Estimativa de desmatamento na Amazônia Legal para 2025 é de 5.796 km², Nota técnica, Programa BiomasBR (PRODES). INPE, São José dos Campos, October 2025. Observation year: 2025 (August 2024 to July 2025).back
  5. 12MapBiomas Alerta (ed.), Relatório Anual do Desmatamento no Brasil, RAD 2025: Destaques (factsheet, version of 26 May 2026). MapBiomas, São Paulo, 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
  6. 30República Federativa do Brasil (ed.), Lei nº 12.608, de 10 de abril de 2012, institui a Política Nacional de Proteção e Defesa Civil. Diário Oficial da União, Brasília, 2012. Observation year: 2012.back
  7. 8Federative Republic of Brazil (ed.), Brazil’s Nationally Determined Contribution: National determination to contribute and transform (second NDC). Submission to the UNFCCC, Brasília, November 2024. Observation year: 2024 (2005 reference; target year 2035).back
  8. 4Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (ed.), Síntese de Indicadores Sociais 2025. IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 3 December 2025, as reported in the press on the day of release. Observation year: 2024.back
  9. 27Conselho Monetário Nacional (ed.), Resolução CMN nº 4.943, de 15 de setembro de 2021, gerenciamento de riscos social, ambiental e climático. Banco Central do Brasil, Brasília, 2021. Observation year: 2021 (in force from 2022).back
  10. 40B. M. Flores, A. Montoya, I. Staal et al., “Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system,” Nature, vol. 626, pp. 555–564, 2024. Observation year: 2024.back
  11. 44J.-C. Espinoza, J. C. Jimenez, J. A. Marengo et al., “The new record of drought and warmth in the Amazon in 2023 related to regional and global climatic features,” Scientific Reports, vol. 14, article 8107, 2024. Observation year: 2023.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 4: Risks and capability. In Brazil Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Brazil’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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