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The 2027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due at the Q1 2027 cut.

5 min read0 figures6 tables4 notesNR-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Brazil’s risk runs through water, forest and fire
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Strong El Niño drought across rivers, hydropower and fire
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
    1. 7.1 Questions for the operational series
    2. 7.2 Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment
    3. 7.3 The pathway
    4. 7.4 Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission
    5. 7.5 Handoffs and routing
    6. 7.6 Feeds and signal register
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

7.1Questions for the operational series

  1. A-01

    How would a strong El Niño drought lower Amazon rivers and hydropower, and how long would navigation, supply and power margins take to recover?

    INI-BRA-CLI-01 · drought and river compound test; first output: dependency graph for two basins.

  2. A-02

    How much hydropower and reservoir margin remains before thermal dispatch must rise, and at what emissions and cost?

    INI-BRA-ENE-02 · hydro and thermal resilience; first output: storage and dispatch register.

  3. A-03

    How exposed are fertiliser, feed and export logistics to river lows and port disruption?

    INI-BRA-FOO-03 · food logistics exposure; first output: commodity and route table.

  4. A-04

    How large is the heat, smoke and dengue load on health services in a hot, dry year?

    INI-BRA-HLT-04 · heat, smoke and vector load; first output: surge baseline for five states.

  5. A-05

    Where do flood and drought losses fall on the uninsured and on public budgets?

    INI-BRA-FIN-05 · protection gap; first output: peril-by-state loss table.

  6. A-06

    How do forest loss, degradation and fire interact with regional rainfall?

    INI-BRA-BIO-01 · workstream; first output: biome interaction note.

  7. A-07

    How resilient are river-basin cities to heavy rain after the 2024 floods?

    To be admitted in Q1 2027; first output: scoping note.

  8. A-08

    Which capabilities have been tested in real events, and which are only listed?

    National capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for admission at the Q1 2027 alignment. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

Table 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
IDObjectKindQuestionState
INI-BRA-CLI-01Drought and river compound testInitiativeA-01PROPOSED
INI-BRA-ENE-02Hydropower and thermal dispatch resilienceInitiativeA-02PROPOSED
INI-BRA-FOO-03Food logistics and input exposureInitiativeA-03PROPOSED
INI-BRA-HLT-04Heat, smoke and vector loadInitiativeA-04PROPOSED
INI-BRA-FIN-05Disaster protection gapInitiativeA-05PROPOSED
PRJ-BRA-CLI-01aTwo-basin drought dependency graphProjectA-01PROPOSED
MSN-BRA-2027-01Drought, river and hydropower Universe missionMissionA-01Candidate

7.3The pathway

Brazil is the national pathway through which the Nexus operating system will run in Brazil from 2027. At baseline the pathway is designed and its records are prepared; its councils and working groups are constituted from Q1 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next, nothing more.

  1. 01

    One National Agenda

    bounded national questions for the year

    DRAFT 2027 · agenda review at the Q1 alignment

  2. 02

    National Desk

    coordination, records, routing and continuity

    DESIGNED · constituted in Q1 2027

  3. 03

    National Model

    the country as a system of systems

    v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with the first Foundry cut

  4. 04

    National Portfolio

    risks, capabilities, initiatives, projects, missions

    7 PROPOSED · admission at the Q1 alignment

  5. 05

    Foundry

    continuous computational environment

    PREPARED · first sealed cut NQ-BRA-2027-Q1

  6. 06

    Reports

    quarterly and annual publication

    BASELINE ISSUED · Q1 2027 · State & Agenda

  7. 07

    Universe

    annual proving environment

    CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate set in 2027

  8. 08

    Evidence and correction

    after-action, correction and renewal

    OPEN · first correction cycle in Q2 2027

7.4Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission

  1. 01

    Mandate

  2. 02

    Core Build · 1 month

  3. 03

    Action · 1 week

  4. 04

    Evidence seal

  5. 05

    Portfolio correction

  6. 06

    Next mandate

Table 7.2Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission
ItemRecordStateTiming
F1Annual mandate recordPLANNEDafter the Q2 2027 alignment
F2Core Build recordPLANNEDone month before the exercise
F3Exercise evidencePLANNEDduring the Action week
F4Decision packetsPLANNEDexercise state only
F5Proof receiptsPLANNEDscoped to each recorded check
F6After-action reportPLANNEDwithin one quarter
F7Upgrade docketPLANNEDrouted to the Portfolio
F8Portfolio renewalPLANNEDQ4 2027 annual edition
F9Public synthesisPLANNEDpublic-safe extracts only

Mission

ID
MSN-BRA-2027-01 · Drought, river and hydropower Universe mission
Role spine
Leadership sponsor (NLC) · Institutional anchor (NNC) · Mission lead (NWG)
Receiving actors
to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

Table 7.3Handoffs and routing
FindingRouted toPurposeClass
CLI-001 · emissionspublic recordreference for the 2027 seriesPUBLIC
WAT-006 · river lowsINI-BRA-CLI-01two-basin graphPUBLIC
WAT-007 · floodsINI-BRA-FIN-05 · key F reviewprotection gapPUBLIC
ENE-005 · power mixINI-BRA-ENE-02hydro and thermal resiliencePUBLIC
FOO-008 · harvestINI-BRA-FOO-03logistics exposurePUBLIC
HLT-010 · dengueINI-BRA-HLT-04heat, smoke and vector loadPUBLIC
BIO-003 · deforestationINI-BRA-BIO-01biome interaction notePUBLIC
SYS-012 · compound pathwayMSN-BRA-2027-01Universe candidateCONSORTIUM
Table 7.4Routing rules by publication class
ClassWhere it goesWho can see it
PUBLICthe published edition and its evidence bundleanyone
CONSORTIUMgoverned rooms of the national pathwayconsortium members under agreement
CONTROLLEDneed-to-know channelsnamed competent actors only

7.6Feeds and signal register

Table 7.5Feeds watched from Q1 2027
FeedProducerLatencyFeeds into
Deforestation alerts (DETER)INPEdailyBIO findings
Fire fociINPEdailyBIO-004
Natural hazard alertsCemadenreal timeRSK-BRA-CLI-001
River-level bulletins, Amazon basinGeological Service of BrazildailyWAT-006
Grid operation and storageNational Electric System OperatordailyENE-005
Arbovirus monitoring panelMinistry of HealthweeklyHLT-010
Energy balance and monthly bulletinsEPEmonthlyENE findings

Escalation routes

  • none · keep monitoring
  • research question
  • project
  • risk object
  • quarterly publication
  • signal report
Table 7.6Signals at baseline
IDSignalCorroborationSystemsRoute
SIG-BRA-001Strong El Niño outlook for August to October 202619CORROBORATEDCLI · WAT · ENErisk object RSK-BRA-CLI-002
SIG-BRA-002Record river lows at Manaus in 2023 and 20242144CORROBORATEDWAT · INFresearch question A-01
SIG-BRA-003Hydropower down 4.8% and gas generation up 22.7% in 202510CORROBORATEDENE · WATinitiative A-02

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 19World Meteorological Organization (ed.), “Strong El Niño expected to intensify,” news release. WMO, Geneva, 31 July 2026. Observation year: 2026.back
  2. 21Serviço Geológico do Brasil (ed.), Negro River gauge at the port of Manaus, level of 12.66 m on 4 October 2024, as reported by the Associated Press, “Drought has dried a major Amazon River tributary to its lowest level in over 122 years,” October 2024. SGB, Manaus. Observation year: 2024.back
  3. 44J.-C. Espinoza, J. C. Jimenez, J. A. Marengo et al., “The new record of drought and warmth in the Amazon in 2023 related to regional and global climatic features,” Scientific Reports, vol. 14, article 8107, 2024. Observation year: 2023.back
  4. 10Empresa de Pesquisa Energética (ed.), Balanço Energético Nacional 2026: Relatório Síntese, ano base 2025. EPE and Ministério de Minas e Energia, Rio de Janeiro, 3 June 2026, updated 31 July 2026. Observation year: 2025.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 7: The 2027 agenda. In Brazil Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Brazil’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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