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Systems in depth

One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

8 min read0 figures5 tables23 notesNR-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Brazil’s risk runs through water, forest and fire
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Strong El Niño drought across rivers, hydropower and fire
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
    1. 8.1 Water, the baseline system chapter
    2. 8.2 Energy, the baseline system chapter
    3. 8.3 Food and agrifood, the baseline system chapter
    4. 8.4 Health and One Health, the baseline system chapter
    5. 8.5 Biodiversity and ecosystems, the baseline system chapter
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

8.1Water, the baseline system chapter

Brazil holds large river basins, yet its water risk is regional and event-driven: floods in the south, low rivers in the Amazon and hydropower tied to rainfall. National sewage collection and reservoir storage were not bound at evidence close.

88.6%

safely managed drinking water, 202422

55.0%

safely managed sanitation, 202422

12.66m

Negro River at Manaus, record low, October 202421

Table 8.1State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Drinking water88.6% of people use safely managed services22Reported
Sanitation55.0% safely managed; sewage collection and treatment not bound2223Reported
FloodsRio Grande do Sul 2024: 185 deaths, R$88.9 billion1516Reported
DroughtNegro River record lows in 2023 and 20242144Reported

Couplings into other systems

  • WAT → ENE hydropower inflows
  • WAT → FOO irrigation and river logistics
  • CLI → WAT flood and drought
  • WAT → HLT sanitation and disease

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • sewage collection and treatment (SINISA)
  • reservoir storage and withdrawals by use

8.2Energy, the baseline system chapter

Electricity was 86.8% renewable in 2025, with hydropower about half of generation. When hydropower fell 4.8%, gas generation rose 22.7%. Emissions from energy were 442.3 Mt CO₂e.

86.8%

renewable share of electricity, 202510

49.4%

renewable share of energy supply, 202510

442.3Mt CO₂e

energy-sector emissions, 202510

Table 8.2State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Power mixrenewables 86.8%; hydropower 401.4 TWh, −4.8%10Reported
Wind and solar116.5 TWh and 88.1 TWh; 34,707 MW and 64,793 MW installed10Reported
Thermal169.9 TWh, +12.3%; gas generation +22.7%10Reported
Storage marginnot bound at evidence closen/aNOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

  • CLI → WAT → ENE hydropower inflows
  • ENE → FIN power cost
  • ENE → HLT cooling and services
  • ENE → FOO pumping and processing

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • reservoir storage by basin
  • gas import exposure

8.3Food and agrifood, the baseline system chapter

Brazil is a large grain and oilseed producer. The 2025/26 harvest is estimated at 360.8 Mt, and the country stayed outside the FAO Hunger Map. Fertiliser and feed dependence were not bound.

360.8Mt

grain harvest estimate, 2025/2624

180.5Mt

soybean estimate, 2025/2624

9.6%

moderate or severe food insecurity, 2023 to 20257

Table 8.3State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Productionharvest estimate 360.8 Mt on 83.5 million hectares24Reported
Economyagricultural value added +11.7% in 20253Reported
Hungeroutside the FAO Hunger Map; 3.2% of households in severe insecurity in 202467Reported
Inputsfertiliser and feed dependence not boundn/aNOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

  • WAT → FOO rain, irrigation and river logistics
  • ENE → FOO fuel and processing
  • CLI → FOO drought and heat
  • BIO → FOO regional moisture recycling

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • fertiliser and feed import dependence
  • export logistics under river lows

8.4Health and One Health, the baseline system chapter

Life expectancy reached 76.6 years in 2024 and poverty fell, yet dengue caused 5,972 confirmed deaths that year. Heat-attributable deaths were not bound at evidence close.

10.9%

aged 65 or over, 2022 (derived)2

76.6years

life expectancy at birth, 20245

5,972deaths

dengue, confirmed, 202417

Table 8.4State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Ageing10.9% aged 65 or over in 20222Inferred
Dengue6,484,890 probable cases in 2024; 908 deaths under investigation17Reported
Poverty23.1% below the poverty line; extreme poverty 3.5%4Reported
Heatattributable deaths not boundn/aNOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

  • CLI → HLT heat and smoke
  • WAT → HLT sanitation and vectors
  • ENE → HLT cooling and services
  • BIO → HLT fire smoke

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • heat-attributable deaths, national total
  • smoke exposure in fire seasons

8.5Biodiversity and ecosystems, the baseline system chapter

Forest covers 58.5% of land and 29.4% of the territory is protected. Deforestation fell in 2025, while fire burned about 30 million hectares in 2024 and 12.7 million in 2025.

58.5%

forest share of land, 202422

29.4%

protected share of territory, 202522

984,794ha

native vegetation loss, 202512

Table 8.5State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Forest58.5% of land area22Reported
DeforestationAmazon estimate 5,796 km²; national loss 984,794 ha1112Reported
Fire≈30 million ha in 2024; 12.7 million ha in 20251314Reported
Tipping riskliterature reports threshold behaviour; timing is contested394041Inferred

Couplings into other systems

  • BIO → WAT forest and watershed regulation
  • BIO → FOO regional moisture recycling
  • CLI → BIO drought and fire
  • BIO → CLI carbon stock

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • forest degradation outside clear-cut loss
  • condition of savanna and wetland biomes

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 22World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: forest area (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), terrestrial and marine protected areas (ER.PTD.TOTL.ZS), people using safely managed drinking water and sanitation services (SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS, SH.STA.SMSS.ZS), Brazil. World Bank, Washington DC, data release of 8 October 2026, which post-dates evidence close; see the edition notes. Observation year: 2024 (forest, water, sanitation) and 2025 (protected areas).back
  2. 21Serviço Geológico do Brasil (ed.), Negro River gauge at the port of Manaus, level of 12.66 m on 4 October 2024, as reported by the Associated Press, “Drought has dried a major Amazon River tributary to its lowest level in over 122 years,” October 2024. SGB, Manaus. Observation year: 2024.back
  3. 23Ministério das Cidades (ed.), Sistema Nacional de Informações em Saneamento Básico, SINISA 2024 (reference year 2023): resultados e indicadores. Ministério das Cidades, Brasília, 2025. Observation year: 2023 (listed as the source that would fill a gap; figures not used).back
  4. 15World Bank, Inter-American Development Bank and ECLAC (eds.), “BID, CEPAL e Grupo Banco Mundial estimam que atuação tempestiva evitou impacto de 1,1 ponto percentual do PIB no Rio Grande do Sul,” press release on the joint Damage and Loss Assessment of the 2024 floods. World Bank, Brasília, 28 November 2024. Observation year: 2024.back
  5. 16Governo do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul, Defesa Civil (ed.), “Situação nos municípios,” SOS Rio Grande do Sul, state portal, last updated 19 August 2025. Porto Alegre. Observation year: 2024 (event of April and May 2024).back
  6. 44J.-C. Espinoza, J. C. Jimenez, J. A. Marengo et al., “The new record of drought and warmth in the Amazon in 2023 related to regional and global climatic features,” Scientific Reports, vol. 14, article 8107, 2024. Observation year: 2023.back
  7. 28República Federativa do Brasil (ed.), Lei nº 14.026, de 15 de julho de 2020, atualiza o marco legal do saneamento básico. Diário Oficial da União, Brasília, 2020. Observation year: 2020.back
  8. 10Empresa de Pesquisa Energética (ed.), Balanço Energético Nacional 2026: Relatório Síntese, ano base 2025. EPE and Ministério de Minas e Energia, Rio de Janeiro, 3 June 2026, updated 31 July 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
  9. 24Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (ed.), 11º Levantamento da Safra de Grãos 2025/26, released 13 August 2026, as reported by Agência Brasil. CONAB, Brasília. Observation year: 2025/26 (agency estimate).back
  10. 7FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026. FAO, Rome, 21 July 2026, Brazil results as reported by the Federal Government on 30 July 2026. Observation year: 2023 to 2025.back
  11. 3Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (ed.), “PIB cresce 2,3% em 2025 e fecha o ano em R$ 12,7 trilhões,” Contas Nacionais Trimestrais. IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 3 March 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
  12. 6Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (ed.), Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios Contínua: Segurança Alimentar 2024. IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 10 October 2025, as reported in the press on the day of release. Observation year: 2024.back
  13. 2Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (ed.), Censo Demográfico 2022: população residente por sexo e idade (SIDRA table 9514). IBGE, Rio de Janeiro. Observation year: 2022.back
  14. 5Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (ed.), Tábuas Completas de Mortalidade 2024. IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 28 November 2025, as reported in the press on the day of release. Observation year: 2024.back
  15. 17Ministério da Saúde (ed.), Painel de Monitoramento das Arboviroses, data to 28 December 2024, as reported by Agência Brasil, “Casos de dengue em 2024 passam de 6,4 milhões; mortes somam 5,9 mil,” January 2025. Observation year: 2024.back
  16. 4Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (ed.), Síntese de Indicadores Sociais 2025. IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 3 December 2025, as reported in the press on the day of release. Observation year: 2024.back
  17. 12MapBiomas Alerta (ed.), Relatório Anual do Desmatamento no Brasil, RAD 2025: Destaques (factsheet, version of 26 May 2026). MapBiomas, São Paulo, 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
  18. 11Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (ed.), Estimativa de desmatamento na Amazônia Legal para 2025 é de 5.796 km², Nota técnica, Programa BiomasBR (PRODES). INPE, São José dos Campos, October 2025. Observation year: 2025 (August 2024 to July 2025).back
  19. 13MapBiomas (ed.), RAF 2024: primeiro Relatório Anual do Fogo. MapBiomas, São Paulo, 24 June 2025. Observation year: 2024.back
  20. 14MapBiomas (ed.), RAF 2025: segunda edição do Relatório Anual do Fogo no Brasil, released 21 July 2026, as reported by Correio Braziliense, “Área queimada no Brasil cai para 12,7 milhões de hectares em 2025, aponta MapBiomas,” July 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
  21. 39T. E. Lovejoy and C. Nobre, “Amazon tipping point,” Science Advances, vol. 4, no. 2, eaat2340, 2018. Observation year: 2018.back
  22. 40B. M. Flores, A. Montoya, I. Staal et al., “Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system,” Nature, vol. 626, pp. 555–564, 2024. Observation year: 2024.back
  23. 41C. A. Boulton, T. M. Lenton and N. Boers, “Pronounced loss of Amazon rainforest resilience since the early 2000s,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 12, 2022. Observation year: 2022.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 8: Systems in depth. In Brazil Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Brazil’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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