- Brazil 2026
- Annex B
Data appendix
The indicator set with its sources, the source registers, the licences of every kind of material and the formats of the edition.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Brazil’s risk runs through water, forest and fire
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Strong El Niño drought across rivers, hydropower and fire
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
B.1The indicator set
| Indicator | Value | Unit | Year | State | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population | 214.2 | million | 2026 | Reported | 1 |
| Aged 65 or over (derived) | 10.9 | % | 2022 | Inferred | 2 |
| GDP growth | 2.3 | % | 2025 | Reported | 3 |
| People below the poverty line (US$6.85 a day) | 23.1 | % | 2024 | Reported | 4 |
| Extreme poverty (US$2.15 a day) | 3.5 | % | 2024 | Reported | 4 |
| Life expectancy at birth | 76.6 | years | 2024 | Reported | 5 |
| Households in severe food insecurity | 3.2 | % | 2024 | Reported | 6 |
| Moderate or severe food insecurity | 9.6 | % | 2023 to 2025 | Reported | 7 |
| Gross greenhouse-gas emissions | 2,145 | Mt CO₂e | 2024 | Reported | 9 |
| Net greenhouse-gas emissions | 1.49 | Gt CO₂e | 2024 | Reported | 9 |
| Net emissions target 2035 | 0.85 to 1.05 | Gt CO₂e | 2035 | Reported | 8 |
| Renewable share of electricity | 86.8 | % | 2025 | Reported | 10 |
| Hydropower generation | 401.4 | TWh | 2025 | Reported | 10 |
| Energy-sector emissions | 442.3 | Mt CO₂e | 2025 | Reported | 10 |
| Amazon deforestation estimate | 5,796 | km² | 2025 | Reported | 11 |
| Native vegetation loss, national | 984,794 | ha | 2025 | Reported | 12 |
| Area burned | 12.7 | million ha | 2025 | Reported | 14 |
| Rio Grande do Sul floods, effects | 88.9 | R$ billion | 2024 | Reported | 15 |
| Dengue deaths confirmed | 5,972 | deaths | 2024 | Reported | 17 |
| Grain harvest estimate | 360.8 | Mt | 2025/26 | Reported | 24 |
| Forest area share of land | 58.5 | % | 2024 | Reported | 22 |
| General government gross debt | 93.3 | % of GDP | 2025 | Reported | 46 |
| Official national inventory total, latest year | Not bound | Mt CO₂e | n/a | NOT BOUND | Ministry of Science inventory |
| Sewage collection, national indicator | Not bound | % | n/a | NOT BOUND | SINISA23 |
| Heat-attributable deaths, national total | Not bound | deaths | n/a | NOT BOUND | Ministry of Health |
| Reservoir storage, main basins | Not bound | % of capacity | n/a | NOT BOUND | ONS |
| Fertiliser import dependence | Not bound | % of use | n/a | NOT BOUND | Comex Stat · ANDA |
B.2National source register
The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.
Domains bound by the register
- WAT
- ENE
- FOO
- HLT
- BIO
- CLI
- INF
- FIN
- TRD
- MIN
| Source | Category | Coverage | Period | Cadence | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population estimates1 | national statistics | national | 2026 | annual | profile |
| Census 20222 | national statistics | national | 2022 | decennial | profile |
| National accounts3 | national statistics | national | 2025 | quarterly | FIN |
| Social indicators4 | national statistics | national | 2024 | annual | HLT · FOO |
| Energy balance10 | government company | national | 2025 | annual | ENE · CLI |
| Deforestation estimate11 | national technical authority | biome | 2025 | annual | BIO |
| Deforestation and fire121314 | civil-society network | national | 2024 to 2025 | annual | BIO |
| Emissions estimates9 | civil-society network | national | 2024 | annual | CLI |
| Flood assessment1516 | international banks · state government | state | 2024 | per event | WAT |
| Arbovirus panel17 | ministry | national | 2024 | weekly | HLT |
| Food and nutrition report7 | UN agencies | national | 2023 to 2025 | annual | FOO |
B.3Regional reading, Brazil by region
Map plates for every state follow in Q2 2027, when boundary sources and public-safe resolutions are bound. This page gives the regional reading in table form.
Resident population by macro-region, 1 July 2026 (Central-West 17.4 million)1
89.0million
Southeast
57.4million
Northeast
31.5million
South
18.9million
North
| Region | Principal hazards | Systems most exposed | Baseline evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| North | drought, river lows, fire, deforestation | water, logistics, biodiversity | Negro River 2023, 20242144 |
| Northeast | drought, heavy rain | food, water, health | extreme poverty gap4 |
| Central-West | savanna conversion, fire, drought | food, biodiversity, water | MapBiomas, 20251214 |
| Southeast | drought for hydropower, heavy rain, heat | energy, cities, water | hydro −4.8%, 202510 |
| South | floods, heavy rain | infrastructure, food, finance | Rio Grande do Sul, 20241516 |
B.4Atlas card, Rio Grande do Sul
- state
- southern Brazil
- 2024 floods
- river basin
- Systems in view
- water, roads, power, housing and production
- Defining event
- floods of April and May 20241516
- Couplings
- CLI → WAT → INF; WAT → FOO; INF → FIN
- Capability evidence
- state civil defence response and recovery assessment1516
- Gaps
- levee and pumping performance; insurance take-up; restoration times
- Agenda items
- A-05 · A-07
A peak of 581,638 people were displaced on 19 May 2024, and 185 deaths were confirmed [16].
PEOPLE
Large-scale displacement
Almost every municipality in the state recorded impacts, with about 2.4 million people affected [16].
MUNICIPALITIES
478 of 497 affected
The assessment puts 69% in productive sectors and 21% in social sectors [15].
ECONOMY
R$88.9 billion in effects
B.5Brazil system card
The card through which Brazil appears in the South America regional edition and the global series. It summarises; it does not rank.
| System | Baseline state | Coupling to watch | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Water | 88.6% safely managed drinking water; floods and low rivers | drought into power and logistics | PARTIAL |
| Energy | 86.8% renewable; hydropower about half | hydro shortfall | GOOD |
| Food | harvest estimate 360.8 Mt; outside the Hunger Map | logistics and input shocks | PARTIAL |
| Health | dengue 2024; heat deaths not bound | heat, smoke and vector load | PARTIAL |
| Biodiversity | forest 58.5% of land; fire volatile | drought and fire | GOOD |
Context
- Archetype
- upper-middle-income continental economy with a hydro-based grid and a large forest estate
- Population
- 214.2 million (2026)1
- Trade
- large agricultural exporter; export routes include river ports2124
- Hazard
- flood effects of R$88.9 billion in one state, 202415
Brazil’s card sits beside its neighbours’; shared basins, grids, corridors and supply chains are read as one regional system.
SOUTH AMERICA REGIONAL EDITION
One regional system
Brazilian evidence enters the water, energy, food, finance and climate sector reports through the same finding identifiers, so a correction travels everywhere at once.
GLOBAL SECTOR SERIES
Same findings, same IDs
In the global edition Brazil is read against peer distributions and thresholds, never placed in a league table.
GLOBAL FLAGSHIP
Peers, not ranks
B.6Licences
| Material | Licence |
|---|---|
| Text | CC BY 4.0 |
| Data | on the licence of each source; Nexus tables CC BY 4.0 |
| Figures | Nexus figures CC BY 4.0; third-party as credited |
| Maps | boundary source and licence printed on each plate |
| Metadata | CC0 1.0, as Zenodo publishes it |
| Third-party data, figures and text | The source’s own licence, credited where it is used; never relicensed |
| Nexus-authored text, tables and figures: CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0). Map plates print their boundary source and licence. | |
B.7Formats and provenance
| Format | Kind | State | What it is | Identifier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Web edition | HTML | On this site | Draft in stewardship review; every value resolves to its source. | NR-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 |
| Print edition | At release | A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF, signed with the web edition at release. | NR-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 | |
| Indicator data | CSV · JSON | On this site | 27 indicators with unit, year, status and source; the machine-readable copy ships with the evidence bundle at release. | NR-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE data release v1 |
| Figures | SVG · PNG | On this site | 4 on the web edition: headline figure, figure 1.3, coupling instrument, capability ladder. | FIG-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-* |
| Slides | Not recorded | No slide deck is recorded for this edition. | ||
| Evidence brief | HTML · PDF | Not recorded | No evidence brief is recorded for this edition. | |
| Dataset with DOI | DataCite | At release | Concept and version DOI are minted at deposit; none is recorded yet. |
Provenance
- Edition pack
- The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built
- Evidence cut
- NQ-BRA-2026-Q0-1, closed 30 September 2026
- Reproducibility
- sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters
- Self-check
- 14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release
- Review
- five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)
- Publisher of record
- The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium
- Corrections
- Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 1Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (ed.), Estimativas da população residente no Brasil e unidades da federação com data de referência em 1º de julho de 2026 (SIDRA table 6579). IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 28 August 2026. Observation year: 2026.back
- 2Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (ed.), Censo Demográfico 2022: população residente por sexo e idade (SIDRA table 9514). IBGE, Rio de Janeiro. Observation year: 2022.back
- 3Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (ed.), “PIB cresce 2,3% em 2025 e fecha o ano em R$ 12,7 trilhões,” Contas Nacionais Trimestrais. IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 3 March 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
- 4Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (ed.), Síntese de Indicadores Sociais 2025. IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 3 December 2025, as reported in the press on the day of release. Observation year: 2024.back
- 5Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (ed.), Tábuas Completas de Mortalidade 2024. IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 28 November 2025, as reported in the press on the day of release. Observation year: 2024.back
- 6Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (ed.), Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios Contínua: Segurança Alimentar 2024. IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 10 October 2025, as reported in the press on the day of release. Observation year: 2024.back
- 7FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026. FAO, Rome, 21 July 2026, Brazil results as reported by the Federal Government on 30 July 2026. Observation year: 2023 to 2025.back
- 9Observatório do Clima (ed.), SEEG 13: Análise das emissões brasileiras de gases de efeito estufa e suas implicações para as metas climáticas do Brasil, 1970 a 2024. Observatório do Clima, São Paulo, November 2025, read from press reports and search excerpts of the release because the report PDF returned HTTP 403. Observation year: 2024.back
- 8Federative Republic of Brazil (ed.), Brazil’s Nationally Determined Contribution: National determination to contribute and transform (second NDC). Submission to the UNFCCC, Brasília, November 2024. Observation year: 2024 (2005 reference; target year 2035).back
- 10Empresa de Pesquisa Energética (ed.), Balanço Energético Nacional 2026: Relatório Síntese, ano base 2025. EPE and Ministério de Minas e Energia, Rio de Janeiro, 3 June 2026, updated 31 July 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
- 11Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (ed.), Estimativa de desmatamento na Amazônia Legal para 2025 é de 5.796 km², Nota técnica, Programa BiomasBR (PRODES). INPE, São José dos Campos, October 2025. Observation year: 2025 (August 2024 to July 2025).back
- 12MapBiomas Alerta (ed.), Relatório Anual do Desmatamento no Brasil, RAD 2025: Destaques (factsheet, version of 26 May 2026). MapBiomas, São Paulo, 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
- 14MapBiomas (ed.), RAF 2025: segunda edição do Relatório Anual do Fogo no Brasil, released 21 July 2026, as reported by Correio Braziliense, “Área queimada no Brasil cai para 12,7 milhões de hectares em 2025, aponta MapBiomas,” July 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
- 15World Bank, Inter-American Development Bank and ECLAC (eds.), “BID, CEPAL e Grupo Banco Mundial estimam que atuação tempestiva evitou impacto de 1,1 ponto percentual do PIB no Rio Grande do Sul,” press release on the joint Damage and Loss Assessment of the 2024 floods. World Bank, Brasília, 28 November 2024. Observation year: 2024.back
- 17Ministério da Saúde (ed.), Painel de Monitoramento das Arboviroses, data to 28 December 2024, as reported by Agência Brasil, “Casos de dengue em 2024 passam de 6,4 milhões; mortes somam 5,9 mil,” January 2025. Observation year: 2024.back
- 24Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (ed.), 11º Levantamento da Safra de Grãos 2025/26, released 13 August 2026, as reported by Agência Brasil. CONAB, Brasília. Observation year: 2025/26 (agency estimate).back
- 22World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: forest area (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), terrestrial and marine protected areas (ER.PTD.TOTL.ZS), people using safely managed drinking water and sanitation services (SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS, SH.STA.SMSS.ZS), Brazil. World Bank, Washington DC, data release of 8 October 2026, which post-dates evidence close; see the edition notes. Observation year: 2024 (forest, water, sanitation) and 2025 (protected areas).back
- 46International Monetary Fund (ed.), “IMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with Brazil,” Press Release No. 26/257, with staff projections. IMF, Washington DC, 23 July 2026. Observation year: 2025 (staff estimates) and 2026.back
- 23Ministério das Cidades (ed.), Sistema Nacional de Informações em Saneamento Básico, SINISA 2024 (reference year 2023): resultados e indicadores. Ministério das Cidades, Brasília, 2025. Observation year: 2023 (listed as the source that would fill a gap; figures not used).back
- 47S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year: 2026.back
- 48S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year: 2026.back
- 13MapBiomas (ed.), RAF 2024: primeiro Relatório Anual do Fogo. MapBiomas, São Paulo, 24 June 2025. Observation year: 2024.back
- 16Governo do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul, Defesa Civil (ed.), “Situação nos municípios,” SOS Rio Grande do Sul, state portal, last updated 19 August 2025. Porto Alegre. Observation year: 2024 (event of April and May 2024).back
- 21Serviço Geológico do Brasil (ed.), Negro River gauge at the port of Manaus, level of 12.66 m on 4 October 2024, as reported by the Associated Press, “Drought has dried a major Amazon River tributary to its lowest level in over 122 years,” October 2024. SGB, Manaus. Observation year: 2024.back
- 44J.-C. Espinoza, J. C. Jimenez, J. A. Marengo et al., “The new record of drought and warmth in the Amazon in 2023 related to regional and global climatic features,” Scientific Reports, vol. 14, article 8107, 2024. Observation year: 2023.back