- China 2026
- Chapter 4
Risks and capability
Four risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1China’s risk is climatic, seismic and demographic at continental scale
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Extreme rain on a dense plain in a hot summer
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
4.1Risk objects
Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.
EstimatedEQL 4RSK-CHN-CLI-001
Record heat and hot-day extremes
ReportedEQL 4RSK-CHN-CLI-002
Extreme rain and river flooding
- Driver
- more intense rainfall and long rainy seasons3
- Exposure
- dense plains, reservoirs and underground spaces14
- Vulnerability
- drainage and reservoir condition not bound
- Capacity
- red rainstorm warnings issued in 202114
- Cascade
- CLI → WAT → INF, HLT
- Horizon
- annual
ReportedEQL 3RSK-CHN-SEI-003
Strong earthquakes on the plateau and in basins
- Driver
- continental collision tectonics
- Exposure
- Dingri 2025: 126 deaths by the evening of the event15
- Vulnerability
- building condition by province not bound
- Capacity
- not bound: seismic code and response records
- Cascade
- SEI → INF, HLT
- Horizon
- 30 years
EstimatedEQL 3RSK-CHN-ENE-004
Coal-led power under rising demand and import exposure
4.2Capability ladder
Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at baseline.
| Function | Rung | Level | Strongest public evidence at baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Prevention and mitigation | NOT BOUND | source: building, flood-control and land-use registers · blocker: not retrieved by evidence close | |
| Monitoring and observation | EXISTS | national climate monitoring and an annual climate bulletin are published3 | |
| Early warning | EXISTS | red rainstorm warnings were issued before the Zhengzhou rain; the investigation found response gaps14 | |
| Preparedness and planning | LISTED | the Emergency Response Law was revised in 2025; use in practice not bound26 | |
| Redundancy and reserves | NOT BOUND | source: grain and water reserve data · blocker: not published in bound form | |
| Response | NOT BOUND | source: Ministry of Emergency Management response records · blocker: not retrieved | |
| Continuity of critical services | NOT BOUND | source: utility restoration records · blocker: not retrieved | |
| Recovery | NOT BOUND | source: provincial reconstruction records after the 2021 flood · blocker: not retrieved | |
| Adaptation | LISTED | the National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy 2035 exists; delivery not bound29 | |
| Social protection | NOT BOUND | source: social-insurance registers · blocker: not reviewed | |
| Finance and insurance | NOT BOUND | source: National Financial Regulatory Administration insurance statistics · blocker: not retrieved | |
| Institutional coordination | EXISTS | monthly national natural disaster releases are published by the Ministry of Emergency Management16 | |
| Technical infrastructure | EXISTS | about 3,891 GW of installed power capacity, 1,842 GW of it wind and solar1 | |
| Workforce | NOT BOUND | source: emergency and health workforce statistics · blocker: not reviewed | |
| Research capacity | LISTED | peer-reviewed national climate, heat and water studies exist313235 | |
| A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline. | |||
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 3National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration (ed.), China Climate Bulletin (2025). CMA, Beijing, 12 February 2026. Observation year 2025.back
- 1National Bureau of Statistics of China (ed.), Statistical Communiqué of the People’s Republic of China on the 2025 National Economic and Social Development. NBS, Beijing, 28 February 2026. Observation year 2025.back
- 14Disaster Investigation Team of the State Council (ed.), Investigation Report on the “7·20” Extraordinarily Heavy Rainstorm Disaster in Zhengzhou, Henan. Ministry of Emergency Management, Beijing, January 2022. Observation year 2021.back
- 15Science and Technology Daily (ed.), “Dingri County earthquake has killed 126 people and injured 188 (西藏定日县地震已致126人遇难、188人受伤).” Beijing, 7 January 2025. Observation year 2025.back
- 4Ember (ed.), Yearly Electricity Data: China, generation, capacity and emissions intensity. Ember, London, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year 2025.back
- 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Energy imports, net (EG.IMP.CONS.ZS), Food imports (TM.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN) and PM2.5 air pollution, mean annual exposure (EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3). World Bank, Washington DC, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation years 2024, 2025 and 2023.back
- 26Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress (ed.), Emergency Response Law of the People’s Republic of China, revised 2025. Beijing, 2025.back
- 29Ministry of Ecology and Environment and partner departments (eds.), National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy 2035. Beijing, 2022.back
- 16Ministry of Emergency Management of China (ed.), national natural disaster releases (全国自然灾害情况), monthly and annual. MEM, Beijing, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available.back
- 31S. Piao, P. Ciais, Y. Huang et al., “The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China,” Nature, vol. 467, pp. 43–51, 2010.back
- 32Y. Sun, X. Zhang, F. W. Zwiers et al., “Rapid increase in the risk of extreme summer heat in Eastern China,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 4, pp. 1082–1085, 2014.back
- 35J. Liu, H. Yang, S. N. Gosling et al., “Water scarcity assessments in the past, present, and future,” Earth’s Future, vol. 5, pp. 545–559, 2017.back