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Systems and sectors at baseline

5 min read0 figures2 tables11 notesNR-COUNTRY-CHN-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1China’s risk is climatic, seismic and demographic at continental scale
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
    1. 3.1 Where each system stood at evidence close
    2. 3.2 Domain posture
    3. 3.3 Sector screens
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Extreme rain on a dense plain in a hot summer
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

WAT · Water

Renewable internal freshwater per person

1,992m³

Agriculture took 62% of freshwater withdrawals, domestic use 20% and industry 18%.

Reported2022FAO AQUASTAT via World Bank8

ENE · Energy

Coal share of electricity generation

54.8%

Wind and solar gave 21.9%. Solar generation was 1,173 TWh, up from 839 TWh in 2024.

Reported2025Ember4

FOO · Food

Grain output

714.88million t

Up 1.2% on 119.41 million hectares. The FAO counts 657.5 million t of cereals, a narrower definition.

Reported2025NBS1

HLT · Health

Population aged 65 or over

15.9%

Births were 7.92 million and deaths 11.31 million; the population fell by 3.39 million.

Reported2025NBS1

BIO · Biodiversity

Land in protected areas

15.6%

Marine protected areas cover 4.8% of territorial waters, against a global 30% target for 2030.

Reported2025UNEP-WCMC via World Bank7

SYS · Cross-system

Average hot days, daily maximum 35 °C or above

16.5days

7.4 days above normal and the most since 1961; all 31 provincial-level units were warmer than normal.

Reported2025CMA3

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries risk into other systems.

Table 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
DomainPosture at baselineCouplingStatus
WATAbout 1,990 m³ of renewable freshwater per person; rain is uneven in space and time; floods and scarcity coexist.WAT → HLT · WAT ↔ INFReported EQL 3
ENECoal 54.8% of electricity; wind and solar fast-growing at 21.9%.ENE ← TRD · ENE → allReported EQL 5
FOOGrain output 714.88 million t; cereal imports forecast well below average.FOO ← TRD, ENEReported EQL 4
HLTLife expectancy 78.0 years; population 15.9% aged 65 or over and shrinking.HLT ← CLIReported EQL 4
BIOProtected land 15.6%, protected waters 4.8%, forest 24.0% of land.BIO ↔ WAT, FOOReported EQL 3
CLIWarmest year on record tied in 2025; record hot days; record North China rain season.forcing on all systemsReported EQL 5
INFDense networks and underground spaces; failures in flood events documented.INF → allReported EQL 3
FINDisaster loss 231.78 billion yuan in 2025; insured share not bound.FIN ← SEI, CLIReported EQL 2
DATDigital dependencies of lifelines not mapped at public-safe resolution.DAT → ENE, FINExpert input EQL 2
AICData-centre and compute demand adds power and cooling load; not bound.AIC → ENE, WATExpert input EQL 2
MINCritical-mineral dependencies not bound in this edition.MIN ← TRDExpert input EQL 2
TRDNet energy imports 24.0% of energy use; food 8.0% of merchandise imports.TRD → allReported EQL 4

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened on the same grammar, so that later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Table 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
CodeSectorBaseline evidenceExposure to watchEvidence coverage
GS-00Cross-systemcompound heat, flood and demographic stressextreme rain on a dense plainPARTIAL
GS-01Waterabout 1,990 m³ per person8floods; basin imbalancePARTIAL
GS-02Energycoal 54.8% of electricity4peak heat demandGOOD
GS-03Foodgrain 714.88 million t1autumn rain; import shocks11GOOD
GS-04Healthageing; population 15.9% aged 65+1heat surge; care continuityPARTIAL
GS-05Financedisaster loss 231.78 billion yuan3protection gap not boundTHIN
GS-06Developmenturbanisation 67.89%1service load in large citiesPARTIAL
GS-07Climatewarmest year tied, 20253heat and heavy rainGOOD
GS-08Disastermonthly national disaster statistics published16floods, typhoons, earthquakesPARTIAL
GS-09Infrastructureunderground spaces flooded in 202114flood and heat stressPARTIAL
GS-10Citiesdense metropolitan regionsurban flooding and heatPARTIAL
GS-11Biodiversityprotected land 15.6%7condition not boundTHIN
GS-12Earth observationnational climate monitoring bulletin3continuityGOOD
GS-13Cyber and digitaldependencies not yet mappedsystemic outagesTHIN
GS-14PolicyEmergency Response Law revised 202526coordination across levelsPARTIAL
GS-15Sciencepeer-reviewed national research3132translation to provincesPARTIAL

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 8World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Renewable internal freshwater resources per capita (ER.H2O.INTR.PC) and Annual freshwater withdrawals by sector (ER.H2O.FWAG.ZS, FWDM, FWIN), from FAO AQUASTAT. World Bank, Washington DC, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year 2022.back
  2. 4Ember (ed.), Yearly Electricity Data: China, generation, capacity and emissions intensity. Ember, London, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year 2025.back
  3. 1National Bureau of Statistics of China (ed.), Statistical Communiqué of the People’s Republic of China on the 2025 National Economic and Social Development. NBS, Beijing, 28 February 2026. Observation year 2025.back
  4. 7World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Terrestrial protected areas (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS), Marine protected areas (ER.MRN.PTMR.ZS), from UNEP-WCMC and IUCN, and Forest area (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), from FAO. World Bank, Washington DC, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation years 2025 and 2024.back
  5. 3National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration (ed.), China Climate Bulletin (2025). CMA, Beijing, 12 February 2026. Observation year 2025.back
  6. 11Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: China. FAO, Rome, reference date 29 January 2026. Observation year 2025.back
  7. 16Ministry of Emergency Management of China (ed.), national natural disaster releases (全国自然灾害情况), monthly and annual. MEM, Beijing, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available.back
  8. 14Disaster Investigation Team of the State Council (ed.), Investigation Report on the “7·20” Extraordinarily Heavy Rainstorm Disaster in Zhengzhou, Henan. Ministry of Emergency Management, Beijing, January 2022. Observation year 2021.back
  9. 26Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress (ed.), Emergency Response Law of the People’s Republic of China, revised 2025. Beijing, 2025.back
  10. 31S. Piao, P. Ciais, Y. Huang et al., “The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China,” Nature, vol. 467, pp. 43–51, 2010.back
  11. 32Y. Sun, X. Zhang, F. W. Zwiers et al., “Rapid increase in the risk of extreme summer heat in Eastern China,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 4, pp. 1082–1085, 2014.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 3: Systems and sectors at baseline. In China Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of China’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-CHN-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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