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Key findings

Twelve findings carry the baseline. They are grouped by system, never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.

4 min read1 figure0 tables11 notesNR-COUNTRY-CHN-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1China’s risk is climatic, seismic and demographic at continental scale
  4. 2Key findings
    1. 2.1 Headline finding
    2. 2.2 Climate forcing
    3. 2.3 Finance
    4. 2.4 SEI
    5. 2.5 Water
    6. 2.6 Energy
    7. 2.7 Food
    8. 2.8 Health
    9. 2.9 Biodiversity
    10. 2.10 Systemic
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Extreme rain on a dense plain in a hot summer
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-CHN-2026-BASELINE-WAT-005

The 2021 Henan flood left 398 people dead or missing, 380 of them in Zhengzhou, where the national station recorded 201.9 mm of rain in one hour.

Figure 2.1Henan flood 2021, official toll
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Dead or missing, Henan (people)398
Dead or missing, Zhengzhou (people)380

Source: State Council Disaster Investigation Team14.

Implication

The investigation counts 14 deaths in a metro train and 6 in a road tunnel, and 12 main rivers rose above warning level. Dense plains, underground transport and reservoirs therefore share one hazard, and loss depends on how they are linked14.

What would move it

Reservoir and levee condition, underground-space flood rules, and rainy-season totals in the Yellow, Haihe and Huaihe basins would each move this finding.

2.2Climate forcing

  1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-CHN-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001

    The national mean temperature was 10.9 °C in 2025, 1.0 °C above the 1991 to 2020 normal and tied with 2024 as the highest since 1951; hot days averaged 16.5, the most since 1961.3

  2. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-CHN-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002

    North China had the highest rainy-season rainfall and the longest rainy season on record in 2025, and the Haihe basin had its third-largest annual rainfall.3

  3. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-CHN-2026-BASELINE-CLI-008

    Emissions excluding land use were 15,536 Mt CO₂e in 2024, 0.8% above 2023 (ESTIMATED change); the 2035 aim is net emissions 7 to 10% below peak levels, and the peak year is not established.91213

2.3Finance

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-CHN-2026-BASELINE-FIN-003

    Meteorological disasters in 2025 left 628 people dead or missing and caused 231.78 billion yuan of direct loss, 26.3% fewer deaths and missing and 28.8% less loss than the 2015 to 2024 average.3

2.4SEI

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-CHN-2026-BASELINE-SEI-004

    The Dingri (Tibet) earthquake of 7 January 2025 had killed 126 people by that evening, according to official reports.15

2.5Water

  1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-CHN-2026-BASELINE-WAT-005

    The 2021 Henan flood left 398 people dead or missing and affected 14.786 million, with 120.06 billion yuan of direct loss; the Zhengzhou station recorded 201.9 mm in one hour.14

2.6Energy

  1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-CHN-2026-BASELINE-ENE-006

    Coal supplied 54.8% of electricity in 2025 and 51.4% of total energy consumption, while wind and solar supplied 21.9% of electricity.14

  2. EstimatedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-CHN-2026-BASELINE-ENE-007

    Wind and solar capacity reached about 1,842 GW at the end of 2025, about 51% of the 3,600 GW the 2035 contribution strives for (sum and ratio ESTIMATED).112

2.7Food

  1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-CHN-2026-BASELINE-FOO-009

    Grain output was 714.88 million tonnes in 2025; the FAO records 657.5 million tonnes of cereals and cereal imports well below average for 2025/26.111

2.8Health

  1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-CHN-2026-BASELINE-HLT-010

    The population fell by 3.39 million to 1,404.89 million in 2025; 15.9% were aged 65 or over and births were 7.92 million.1

2.9Biodiversity

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-CHN-2026-BASELINE-BIO-011

    Protected areas covered 15.6% of land and 4.8% of territorial waters in 2025, and forest 24.0% of land in 2024, against a global 30% target for 2030.738

2.10Systemic

  1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-COUNTRY-CHN-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

    The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is extreme rain on a dense plain in a hot summer that cuts roads, underground transport, water and care together. §9.3

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 14Disaster Investigation Team of the State Council (ed.), Investigation Report on the “7·20” Extraordinarily Heavy Rainstorm Disaster in Zhengzhou, Henan. Ministry of Emergency Management, Beijing, January 2022. Observation year 2021.back
  2. 3National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration (ed.), China Climate Bulletin (2025). CMA, Beijing, 12 February 2026. Observation year 2025.back
  3. 9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), from the EDGAR Community GHG Database, Joint Research Centre, European Commission. World Bank, Washington DC, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year 2024.back
  4. 12Government of China (ed.), China’s 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution. Submission to the UNFCCC, Beijing, November 2025. Observation year 2025.back
  5. 13Climate Action Tracker (ed.), China: 2035 NDC assessment. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year 2025.back
  6. 15Science and Technology Daily (ed.), “Dingri County earthquake has killed 126 people and injured 188 (西藏定日县地震已致126人遇难、188人受伤).” Beijing, 7 January 2025. Observation year 2025.back
  7. 1National Bureau of Statistics of China (ed.), Statistical Communiqué of the People’s Republic of China on the 2025 National Economic and Social Development. NBS, Beijing, 28 February 2026. Observation year 2025.back
  8. 4Ember (ed.), Yearly Electricity Data: China, generation, capacity and emissions intensity. Ember, London, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year 2025.back
  9. 11Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: China. FAO, Rome, reference date 29 January 2026. Observation year 2025.back
  10. 7World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Terrestrial protected areas (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS), Marine protected areas (ER.MRN.PTMR.ZS), from UNEP-WCMC and IUCN, and Forest area (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), from FAO. World Bank, Washington DC, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation years 2025 and 2024.back
  11. 38Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 2: Key findings. In China Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of China’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-CHN-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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