- China 2026
- Executive summary
Executive summary
The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1China’s risk is climatic, seismic and demographic at continental scale
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Extreme rain on a dense plain in a hot summer
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
S.1Abstract
China enters 2027 with 1,404.89 million people, a population that fell by 3.39 million in 2025 and in which 15.9% are aged 65 or over1. The climate is moving visibly: 2025 tied 2024 as the warmest year since 1951 at 10.9 °C, the national average of hot days was the highest since 1961, and the rainy season in North China set records for both rainfall and duration3. Meteorological disasters left 628 people dead or missing and cost 231.78 billion yuan in 2025, fewer than the 2015 to 2024 average3, yet the 2021 Henan flood, with 398 people dead or missing, shows what one extreme event can do on a dense plain14. Coal still supplied 54.8% of electricity in 2025, while wind and solar supplied 21.9% and reached about 1,842 GW of capacity14. Emissions excluding land use were 15,536 Mt CO₂e in 2024 in the EDGAR database, and the 2035 contribution aims for net emissions 7 to 10% below peak levels, a peak year that has not yet been established91213. Grain output was 714.88 million tonnes in 20251, and protected areas covered 15.6% of land7. This Baseline Edition fixes the reference state for China’s water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems, maps the couplings through which heat, flood, seismic and supply shocks travel, and sets the questions the first operational edition will answer with Foundry evidence in Q1 2027. Series that were not retrieved by evidence close, among them national water use, heat deaths, insurance cover and soybean imports, appear as designed empty states, not estimates. It ranks nothing and decides nothing.
S.2Key messages
Six readings that frame the China baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.
15,536 Mt CO₂e excluding land use in 2024, in the EDGAR database. The national inventory with land use is not bound.918
Where do emissions stand?Reported
10.9 °C in 2025, tied with 2024 as the highest since 1951, and the most hot days since 1961.3
How hot has it become?Reported
Zhengzhou recorded 201.9 mm in one hour in 2021, and 398 people were dead or missing in Henan.14
How exposed are cities to extreme rain?Reported
Coal 54.8%, hydro 13.3%, solar 11.2%, wind 10.7%, nuclear 4.6% and gas 3.2% in 2025.4
How is electricity made?Reported
Grain output was 714.88 million tonnes. The share of food imported and soybean import concentration are not bound.120
How secure is food?Reported
231.78 billion yuan of direct loss from meteorological disasters in 2025. Insured shares are not bound.323
Who carries the losses?Reported
15.9% are aged 65 or over and births were 7.92 million, against 11.31 million deaths.1
What does an older population change?Reported
Extreme rain on a dense plain in a hot summer, cutting roads, underground transport, water and care together. SCN-CHN-FLD-01
What will Q1 2027 test first?Expert input
S.3Headline finding
ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-CHN-2026-BASELINE-WAT-005
The 2021 Henan flood left 398 people dead or missing, 380 of them in Zhengzhou, where the national station recorded 201.9 mm of rain in one hour.
| Item | Bar, scaled to the largest value | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Dead or missing, Henan (people) | 398 | |
| Dead or missing, Zhengzhou (people) | 380 |
Source: State Council Disaster Investigation Team14.
The investigation counts 14 deaths in a metro train and 6 in a road tunnel, and 12 main rivers rose above warning level. Dense plains, underground transport and reservoirs therefore share one hazard, and loss depends on how they are linked14.
S.4At a glance
S.5What each steward reads in it
GCRI · KEY T
Technical Truth
The evidence supports a coupled reading of China’s risk: heat and rain extremes are rising, loss builds fast on dense plains, and an older population changes who is exposed.
GRF · KEY M
Public Meaning
For most people risk arrives as a heat warning, a rainstorm alert or a flooded street.
GRA · KEY F
Capital Meaning
Readiness implications only. Direct disaster loss was 231.78 billion yuan in 2025 and the insured share is not bound.
NEXUS
Synthesis
China has deep monitoring and statistics and thinner public evidence on keeping water, power and care running for weeks.
S.6What this edition is, and is not
What this edition is
A baseline: the state of China’s water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems in 2026, the dependencies that connect them, the risks that travel through them and the capabilities that hold them. It sets out the questions the operational series will answer.
What it is not
Not a national risk assessment, an official warning or a rating. It decides nothing about any institution or asset. Competent authorities keep every mandate they hold, and national ownership of the series is unaffected.
What comes next
Q1 2027 opens the operational series with a sealed Foundry evidence cut. Each later edition reports what changed against this baseline, new observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 1National Bureau of Statistics of China (ed.), Statistical Communiqué of the People’s Republic of China on the 2025 National Economic and Social Development. NBS, Beijing, 28 February 2026. Observation year 2025.back
- 3National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration (ed.), China Climate Bulletin (2025). CMA, Beijing, 12 February 2026. Observation year 2025.back
- 14Disaster Investigation Team of the State Council (ed.), Investigation Report on the “7·20” Extraordinarily Heavy Rainstorm Disaster in Zhengzhou, Henan. Ministry of Emergency Management, Beijing, January 2022. Observation year 2021.back
- 4Ember (ed.), Yearly Electricity Data: China, generation, capacity and emissions intensity. Ember, London, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year 2025.back
- 9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), from the EDGAR Community GHG Database, Joint Research Centre, European Commission. World Bank, Washington DC, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year 2024.back
- 12Government of China (ed.), China’s 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution. Submission to the UNFCCC, Beijing, November 2025. Observation year 2025.back
- 13Climate Action Tracker (ed.), China: 2035 NDC assessment. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year 2025.back
- 7World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Terrestrial protected areas (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS), Marine protected areas (ER.MRN.PTMR.ZS), from UNEP-WCMC and IUCN, and Forest area (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), from FAO. World Bank, Washington DC, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation years 2025 and 2024.back
- 18Ministry of Ecology and Environment of China (ed.), national greenhouse gas inventory submitted to the UNFCCC (latest biennial report). MEE, Beijing, not opened 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available.back
- 20General Administration of Customs of China (ed.), import and export statistics for soybeans and feed. GACC, Beijing, not retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available.back
- 23National Financial Regulatory Administration of China (ed.), insurance industry statistics. NFRA, Beijing, not retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available.back
- 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Energy imports, net (EG.IMP.CONS.ZS), Food imports (TM.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN) and PM2.5 air pollution, mean annual exposure (EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3). World Bank, Washington DC, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation years 2024, 2025 and 2023.back