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The 2027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due at the Q1 2027 cut.

5 min read0 figures6 tables2 notesNR-COUNTRY-CHN-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1China’s risk is climatic, seismic and demographic at continental scale
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Extreme rain on a dense plain in a hot summer
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
    1. 7.1 Questions for the operational series
    2. 7.2 Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment
    3. 7.3 The pathway
    4. 7.4 Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission
    5. 7.5 Handoffs and routing
    6. 7.6 Feeds and signal register
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

7.1Questions for the operational series

  1. A-01

    How would extreme rain on a dense plain cut roads, underground transport, water and care together, and how long would recovery take?

    INI-CHN-WAT-01 · flood and lifeline continuity; first output: dependency graph for two provinces.

  2. A-02

    How much heat-health surge capacity and power margin exist in a record-hot summer?

    INI-CHN-CLI-02 · heat, power and care; first output: surge and margin baseline for five provinces.

  3. A-03

    How fast can wind, solar and other non-fossil supply displace coal, and what does the 2035 aim imply year by year?

    INI-CHN-ENE-03 · power mix and coal pace; first output: generation and capacity table 2020 to 2026.

  4. A-04

    How concentrated are soybean, feed and cereal imports, by commodity and origin?

    INI-CHN-FOO-04 · import exposure; first output: commodity dependence table.

  5. A-05

    Where do flood, typhoon and drought losses fall, and who insures them?

    INI-CHN-FIN-05 · protection gap; first output: peril-by-province loss table.

  6. A-06

    How do reservoirs and levees perform under more intense rainfall?

    INI-CHN-WAT-06 · workstream; first output: basin performance note.

  7. A-07

    How resilient are data-centre and manufacturing clusters to flood, heat and power constraints?

    To be admitted in Q1 2027; first output: scoping note.

  8. A-08

    Which capabilities have been tested in real disasters, and which are only planned?

    National capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for admission at the Q1 2027 alignment. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

Table 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
IDObjectKindQuestionState
INI-CHN-WAT-01Flood and lifeline continuity on dense plainsInitiativeA-01PROPOSED
INI-CHN-CLI-02Heat, power and care surgeInitiativeA-02PROPOSED
INI-CHN-ENE-03Power mix and coal transition paceInitiativeA-03PROPOSED
INI-CHN-FOO-04Grain, soybean and feed import exposureInitiativeA-04PROPOSED
INI-CHN-FIN-05Disaster protection gapInitiativeA-05PROPOSED
PRJ-CHN-WAT-01aTwo-province flood and lifeline dependency graphProjectA-01PROPOSED
MSN-CHN-2027-01Flood, lifeline and health Universe missionMissionA-01Candidate

7.3The pathway

China is the national pathway through which the Nexus operating system will run in China from 2027. At baseline the pathway is designed and its records are prepared; its councils and working groups are constituted from Q1 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next, nothing more.

  1. 01

    One National Agenda

    bounded national questions for the year

    DRAFT 2027 · agenda review at the Q1 alignment

  2. 02

    National Desk

    coordination, records, routing and continuity

    DESIGNED · constituted in Q1 2027

  3. 03

    National Model

    the country as a system of systems

    v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with the first Foundry cut

  4. 04

    National Portfolio

    risks, capabilities, initiatives, projects, missions

    7 PROPOSED · admission at the Q1 alignment

  5. 05

    Foundry

    continuous computational environment

    PREPARED · first sealed cut NQ-CHN-2027-Q1

  6. 06

    Reports

    quarterly and annual publication

    BASELINE ISSUED · Q1 2027 · State & Agenda

  7. 07

    Universe

    annual proving environment

    CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate set in 2027

  8. 08

    Evidence and correction

    after-action, correction and renewal

    OPEN · first correction cycle in Q2 2027

7.4Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission

  1. 01

    Mandate

  2. 02

    Core Build · 1 month

  3. 03

    Action · 1 week

  4. 04

    Evidence seal

  5. 05

    Portfolio correction

  6. 06

    Next mandate

Table 7.2Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission
ItemRecordStateTiming
F1Annual mandate recordPLANNEDafter the Q2 2027 alignment
F2Core Build recordPLANNEDone month before the exercise
F3Exercise evidencePLANNEDduring the Action week
F4Decision packetsPLANNEDexercise state only
F5Proof receiptsPLANNEDscoped to each recorded check
F6After-action reportPLANNEDwithin one quarter
F7Upgrade docketPLANNEDrouted to the Portfolio
F8Portfolio renewalPLANNEDQ4 2027 annual edition
F9Public synthesisPLANNEDpublic-safe extracts only

Mission

ID
MSN-CHN-2027-01 · Flood, lifeline and health Universe mission
Role spine
Leadership sponsor (NLC) · Institutional anchor (NNC) · Mission lead (NWG)
Receiving actors
to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

Table 7.3Handoffs and routing
FindingRouted toPurposeClass
CLI-001 · heatINI-CHN-CLI-02heat, power and carePUBLIC
CLI-002 · rainINI-CHN-WAT-01flood and lifelinesPUBLIC
FIN-003 · lossesINI-CHN-FIN-05 · key F reviewprotection gapPUBLIC
SEI-004 · Dingriresearch question A-01seismic evidencePUBLIC
WAT-005 · HenanINI-CHN-WAT-01two-province graphPUBLIC
ENE-006 · coal shareINI-CHN-ENE-03power mix and pacePUBLIC
FOO-009 · grainINI-CHN-FOO-04import exposurePUBLIC
SYS-012 · compound pathwayMSN-CHN-2027-01Universe candidateCONSORTIUM
Table 7.4Routing rules by publication class
ClassWhere it goesWho can see it
PUBLICthe published edition and its evidence bundleanyone
CONSORTIUMgoverned rooms of the national pathwayconsortium members under agreement
CONTROLLEDneed-to-know channelsnamed competent actors only

7.6Feeds and signal register

Table 7.5Feeds watched from Q1 2027
FeedProducerLatencyFeeds into
Climate monitoring and annual bulletinChina Meteorological Administrationmonthly and annualCLI-001 · CLI-002
National natural disaster statisticsMinistry of Emergency ManagementmonthlyFIN-003
Earthquake reportsChina Earthquake Networks Centerreal timeSEI-004
Power statisticsNational Energy AdministrationmonthlyENE-006
Water resources bulletinMinistry of Water ResourcesannualWAT-005
Statistical communiqueNational Bureau of StatisticsannualFOO-009 · HLT-010
Crop briefFAO GIEWSperiodicFOO-009

Escalation routes

  • none · keep monitoring
  • research question
  • project
  • risk object
  • quarterly publication
  • signal report
Table 7.6Signals at baseline
IDSignalCorroborationSystemsRoute
SIG-CHN-001Record national hot days in 20253CORROBORATEDCLI · HLTrisk object RSK-CHN-CLI-001
SIG-CHN-002Record North China rainy season in 20253CORROBORATEDCLI · WATresearch question A-01
SIG-CHN-003Repeat extreme rain in dense plains (2021, 2025)314CORROBORATEDCLI · INF · HLTinitiative A-01

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 3National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration (ed.), China Climate Bulletin (2025). CMA, Beijing, 12 February 2026. Observation year 2025.back
  2. 14Disaster Investigation Team of the State Council (ed.), Investigation Report on the “7·20” Extraordinarily Heavy Rainstorm Disaster in Zhengzhou, Henan. Ministry of Emergency Management, Beijing, January 2022. Observation year 2021.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 7: The 2027 agenda. In China Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of China’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-CHN-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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