- China 2026
- Chapter 6
Readings from the other desks
The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument. The other desks’ own editions of this subject are listed first, as cross-references, not copies.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1China’s risk is climatic, seismic and demographic at continental scale
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Extreme rain on a dense plain in a hot summer
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 6.1 The other desks’ editions of this subject
- 6.2 Three lenses
- 6.3 Standards, Academy and steward contributions
- 6.4 GCRI reading: the model card
- 6.5 Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays
- 6.6 Global Risks Alliance reading: q1 2027 readiness pack
- 6.7 Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch
- 6.8 Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject
Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.
| Desk | Edition | State | Identifier |
|---|---|---|---|
| GCRI Systems Evidence | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| GRF Public Deliberation | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| GRA Capital Readiness | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Standards Progress | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit | |
| Academy Capability | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit | |
| Index Measurement | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle |
6.2Three lenses
One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.
GCRI · KEY T
Technical Truth
The evidence supports a coupled reading of China’s risk: heat and rain extremes are rising, loss builds fast on dense plains, and an older population changes who is exposed. Evidence is strongest for climate monitoring, electricity and population, and weakest for water use, heat deaths and insurance cover.
CLI-001 · CLI-002 · WAT-005 · SYS-012
GRF · KEY M
Public Meaning
For most people risk arrives as a heat warning, a rainstorm alert or a flooded street. The baseline asks that public debate weigh how a smaller, older population changes who can evacuate, who can respond and how fast places recover.
HLT-010 · WAT-005 · CLI-001
GRA · KEY F
Capital Meaning
Readiness implications only. Direct disaster loss was 231.78 billion yuan in 2025 and the insured share is not bound. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an approval.
FIN-003 · ENE-007
NEXUS
Synthesis
China has deep monitoring and statistics and thinner public evidence on keeping water, power and care running for weeks. The 2027 programme should map flood and lifeline dependencies, test the Henan pattern at wider scale, and measure heat and import exposure.
SYS-012 · A-01 · A-02
6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions
How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for China. The standards are preparatory working drafts (October 2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.
| Quarter | Edition | Question | Boundary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | State and Agenda | What matters this year, and what is the starting position? | observed baseline stays distinct from planned work |
| Q2 | Evidence and Build | What new evidence and capability have been developed? | a configured capability is not a validated result |
| Q3 | Stress Test and Readiness | What do scenarios and tests reveal? | simulated loss or performance is not observed impact |
| Q4 | Annual Synthesis and Renewal | What did the year establish, and what changes next? | release follows review, not event publicity deadlines |
| Steward or body | Role | Contribution route |
|---|---|---|
| The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI Canada) | Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat; publisher of record; technical truth (key T) | science and practice communities · GCRI gateway |
| The Global Risks Forum (GRF) | leadership, dialogue and the Universe programme; public meaning (key M) | policy, Universe and national adoption · GRF gateway |
| The Global Risks Alliance (GRA) | finance, insurance and development readiness; capital meaning (key F) | finance and insurance · GRA gateway |
| Nexus Standards | preparatory drafts on vocabulary, hazards, indicators and methods | Standards site · working groups HAZ, IND, MTH, FIN, AI |
| Risk Academy | learning pathways tied to the agenda questions | Academy gateway · learning by review |
| China | national pathway: Desk, Leadership Council, Consortium, Working Groups | national Commons room |
Standards drafts used in this edition
- Risk vocabulary NRS-C1 (424 terms) for terms in the glossary
- Hazard atlas NHS-1 1.1.0 (905 hazards in 120 families) for risk objects
- Seven risk classes: global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier-tech
Standards calendar to watch
- Founding calls from 20 October 2026; working groups meet from 5 November 2026
- Inaugural Global Standards Council session, 12 January 2027
- Quarterly reviews in March, June, September and December, aligned with each edition
6.4GCRI reading: the model card
GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology
6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays
Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.
A year tied as the warmest, a record count of hot days and warmer-than-normal readings in every provincial-level unit make heat a national condition, not a local event. The baseline reads it as a load on power, water and care together.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 01
Heat is the new baseline
Wind and solar capacity has passed 1,800 GW while coal still supplies more than half of electricity. The edition treats both as facts of the 2026 reference state and does not forecast the crossover.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 02
Two fleets grow together
Henan 2021 and North China 2025 show rain reaching records in or near large urban and farming plains. Underground transport, reservoirs and crops are coupled through one hazard.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 03
Floods find the densest places
The population fell by 3.39 million in 2025 and 15.9% are 65 or over. This changes who is exposed to heat and flood and how large a response workforce can be.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 04
A smaller, older population
6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: q1 2027 readiness pack
The registers that open the first operational quarter. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.
| Item | Register | State at baseline | First Q1 2027 entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| E1 | National risk state delta | baseline set by this edition | changes against the baseline |
| E2 | WEFH+B state delta | five system readings set | indicator updates and freshness |
| E3 | Agenda and Portfolio movement | eight agenda items · 7 proposed objects | admission decisions |
| E4 | NWG delivery register | no groups yet | first monthly outputs |
| E5 | NNC capability register | membership opens in Q1 2027 | first contributions |
| E6 | NLC questions and challenges | none yet | first challenge log |
| E7 | Foundry technical state | environment prepared | first sealed cut |
| E8 | Publication candidates | twelve findings carried forward | PUBLISH · HOLD dispositions |
| E9 | Universe readiness | one candidate mission | admission and role spine |
| E10 | Correction register | none | first correction cycle |
Publication dispositions
- Publish
- Hold
- Needs evidence
- Restricted
- Superseded
6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch
Instruments that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.
- IN FORCE
- ADOPTED
- SUBMITTED
- UNDER REVIEW
- PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY
| Instrument | Body | Scope | Status | Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Agreement · 2035 contribution: net emissions 7 to 10% below peak, striving to do better1239 | UNFCCC · China | national | SUBMITTED 2025 | emissions pathway |
| Energy Law of the People’s Republic of China24 | NPC Standing Committee | national | IN FORCE 2025 | energy system |
| Food Security Law25 | NPC Standing Committee | national | IN FORCE 2024 | grain security |
| Emergency Response Law, revised26 | NPC Standing Committee | national | REVISED 2025 | emergency management |
| National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy 203529 | national departments | national | ISSUED 2022 | adaptation |
| Interim Regulations on Carbon Emissions Trading Management30 | State Council | national | IN FORCE 2024 | carbon market |
| Yangtze River Protection Law27 and Yellow River Protection Law28 | NPC Standing Committee | basin | IN FORCE | basin governance |
| Kunming-Montreal Framework38 | CBD | international | ADOPTED 2022 | 30by30 |
Changed since 2024
6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments
The review behind this edition covers peer-reviewed science, national and international assessments and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Full systematic reviews begin in Q1 2027 for each agenda item.
Review protocol
- Question
- What does the published evidence establish about China’s coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity risks?
- Sources searched
- peer-reviewed literature; national and international assessments; official releases; industry loss data
- Window
- releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026
- Selection
- sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition
- Next step
- systematic reviews for agenda items A-01 to A-05 in Q1 2027
| Reference | Type | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lee and Romero (eds.)36 | assessment | 2023 | context | forcing |
| McElwee et al. (eds.)41 | assessment | 2024 | framework | nexus interlinkages |
| Zscheischler et al.42 | journal article | 2018 | framework | compound events |
| Piao et al.31 | journal article | 2010 | supports | water and agriculture |
| Sun et al.32 | journal article | 2014 | supports | summer heat risk |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China Climate Bulletin 20253 | CMA National Climate Center | 2026 | supports | climate |
| Henan investigation14 | State Council team | 2022 | supports | flood tail |
| 2035 contribution12 | Government of China | 2025 | supports | energy pathway |
| Adaptation Strategy 203529 | national departments | 2022 | context | adaptation |
| Energy Law24 | NPC Standing Committee | 2024 | context | energy governance |
| Foundational Edition44 | GCRI | 2026 | framework | method |
| Global baseline45 | GCRI | 2026 | context | global anchor |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical communique1 | NBS | 2026 | supports | profile, grain, energy |
| Sample survey2 | NBS | 2026 | supports | age structure |
| Electricity data4 | Ember | 2026 | supports | power mix |
| CO₂ accounts34 | Shan et al. | 2018 | context | emissions accounting |
| Water stress35 | Liu et al. | 2017 | context | water scarcity |
| Population prospects46 | UN DESA | 2024 | context | population series |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Temperature mortality33 | Zhao et al. | 2021 | context | heat and health |
| Disaster releases16 | MEM | 2026 | listed | losses |
| Insurance statistics23 | NFRA | n/a | not bound | protection gap |
| Global Energy Review40 | IEA | 2025 | context | global energy |
| World Health Statistics43 | WHO | 2025 | context | health |
Where the evidence agrees
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 12Government of China (ed.), China’s 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution. Submission to the UNFCCC, Beijing, November 2025. Observation year 2025.back
- 39UNFCCC (ed.), Paris Agreement. United Nations, Paris, 2015.back
- 24Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress (ed.), Energy Law of the People’s Republic of China. Beijing, adopted November 2024, in force 2025.back
- 25Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress (ed.), Food Security Law of the People’s Republic of China. Beijing, adopted December 2023, in force 2024.back
- 26Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress (ed.), Emergency Response Law of the People’s Republic of China, revised 2025. Beijing, 2025.back
- 29Ministry of Ecology and Environment and partner departments (eds.), National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy 2035. Beijing, 2022.back
- 30State Council of China (ed.), Interim Regulations on Carbon Emissions Trading Management. Beijing, 2024.back
- 27Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress (ed.), Yangtze River Protection Law of the People’s Republic of China. Beijing, 2020, in force 2021.back
- 28Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress (ed.), Yellow River Protection Law of the People’s Republic of China. Beijing, 2022, in force 2023.back
- 38Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022.back
- 13Climate Action Tracker (ed.), China: 2035 NDC assessment. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year 2025.back
- 36H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023.back
- 41P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054back
- 42J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018.back
- 31S. Piao, P. Ciais, Y. Huang et al., “The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China,” Nature, vol. 467, pp. 43–51, 2010.back
- 32Y. Sun, X. Zhang, F. W. Zwiers et al., “Rapid increase in the risk of extreme summer heat in Eastern China,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 4, pp. 1082–1085, 2014.back
- 3National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration (ed.), China Climate Bulletin (2025). CMA, Beijing, 12 February 2026. Observation year 2025.back
- 14Disaster Investigation Team of the State Council (ed.), Investigation Report on the “7·20” Extraordinarily Heavy Rainstorm Disaster in Zhengzhou, Henan. Ministry of Emergency Management, Beijing, January 2022. Observation year 2021.back
- 44S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.back
- 45S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.back
- 1National Bureau of Statistics of China (ed.), Statistical Communiqué of the People’s Republic of China on the 2025 National Economic and Social Development. NBS, Beijing, 28 February 2026. Observation year 2025.back
- 2National Bureau of Statistics of China (ed.), Communiqué of the 1% National Population Sample Survey in 2025. NBS, Beijing, 22 May 2026. Observation date 1 November 2025.back
- 4Ember (ed.), Yearly Electricity Data: China, generation, capacity and emissions intensity. Ember, London, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year 2025.back
- 34Y. Shan, D. Guan, H. Zheng et al., “China CO2 emission accounts 1997–2015,” Scientific Data, vol. 5, 170201, 2018.back
- 35J. Liu, H. Yang, S. N. Gosling et al., “Water scarcity assessments in the past, present, and future,” Earth’s Future, vol. 5, pp. 545–559, 2017.back
- 46United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (ed.), World Population Prospects 2024. United Nations, New York, 2024. Observation year 2024.back
- 33Q. Zhao, Y. Guo, T. Ye et al., “Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures from 2000 to 2019,” The Lancet Planetary Health, vol. 5, pp. e415–e425, 2021.back
- 16Ministry of Emergency Management of China (ed.), national natural disaster releases (全国自然灾害情况), monthly and annual. MEM, Beijing, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available.back
- 23National Financial Regulatory Administration of China (ed.), insurance industry statistics. NFRA, Beijing, not retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available.back
- 40International Energy Agency (ed.), Global Energy Review 2025. IEA, Paris, 2025.back
- 43World Health Organization (ed.), World Health Statistics 2025. WHO, Geneva, 2025.back
- 37UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015.back
- 21National Health Commission of China (ed.), Statistical Bulletin on the Development of Health Care. NHC, Beijing, not retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available.back