- China 2026
- Chapter 7
The 2027 agenda
Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due at the Q1 2027 cut.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1China’s risk is climatic, seismic and demographic at continental scale
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Extreme rain on a dense plain in a hot summer
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
7.1Questions for the operational series
- A-01
How would extreme rain on a dense plain cut roads, underground transport, water and care together, and how long would recovery take?
INI-CHN-WAT-01 · flood and lifeline continuity; first output: dependency graph for two provinces.
- A-02
How much heat-health surge capacity and power margin exist in a record-hot summer?
INI-CHN-CLI-02 · heat, power and care; first output: surge and margin baseline for five provinces.
- A-03
How fast can wind, solar and other non-fossil supply displace coal, and what does the 2035 aim imply year by year?
INI-CHN-ENE-03 · power mix and coal pace; first output: generation and capacity table 2020 to 2026.
- A-04
How concentrated are soybean, feed and cereal imports, by commodity and origin?
INI-CHN-FOO-04 · import exposure; first output: commodity dependence table.
- A-05
Where do flood, typhoon and drought losses fall, and who insures them?
INI-CHN-FIN-05 · protection gap; first output: peril-by-province loss table.
- A-06
How do reservoirs and levees perform under more intense rainfall?
INI-CHN-WAT-06 · workstream; first output: basin performance note.
- A-07
How resilient are data-centre and manufacturing clusters to flood, heat and power constraints?
To be admitted in Q1 2027; first output: scoping note.
- A-08
Which capabilities have been tested in real disasters, and which are only planned?
National capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.
7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment
Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for admission at the Q1 2027 alignment. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.
| ID | Object | Kind | Question | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| INI-CHN-WAT-01 | Flood and lifeline continuity on dense plains | Initiative | A-01 | PROPOSED |
| INI-CHN-CLI-02 | Heat, power and care surge | Initiative | A-02 | PROPOSED |
| INI-CHN-ENE-03 | Power mix and coal transition pace | Initiative | A-03 | PROPOSED |
| INI-CHN-FOO-04 | Grain, soybean and feed import exposure | Initiative | A-04 | PROPOSED |
| INI-CHN-FIN-05 | Disaster protection gap | Initiative | A-05 | PROPOSED |
| PRJ-CHN-WAT-01a | Two-province flood and lifeline dependency graph | Project | A-01 | PROPOSED |
| MSN-CHN-2027-01 | Flood, lifeline and health Universe mission | Mission | A-01 | Candidate |
7.3The pathway
China is the national pathway through which the Nexus operating system will run in China from 2027. At baseline the pathway is designed and its records are prepared; its councils and working groups are constituted from Q1 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next, nothing more.
- 01
One National Agenda
bounded national questions for the year
DRAFT 2027 · agenda review at the Q1 alignment
- 02
National Desk
coordination, records, routing and continuity
DESIGNED · constituted in Q1 2027
- 03
National Model
the country as a system of systems
v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with the first Foundry cut
- 04
National Portfolio
risks, capabilities, initiatives, projects, missions
7 PROPOSED · admission at the Q1 alignment
- 05
Foundry
continuous computational environment
PREPARED · first sealed cut NQ-CHN-2027-Q1
- 06
quarterly and annual publication
BASELINE ISSUED · Q1 2027 · State & Agenda
- 07
Universe
annual proving environment
CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate set in 2027
- 08
Evidence and correction
after-action, correction and renewal
OPEN · first correction cycle in Q2 2027
7.4Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission
- 01
Mandate
- 02
Core Build · 1 month
- 03
Action · 1 week
- 04
Evidence seal
- 05
Portfolio correction
- 06
Next mandate
| Item | Record | State | Timing |
|---|---|---|---|
| F1 | Annual mandate record | PLANNED | after the Q2 2027 alignment |
| F2 | Core Build record | PLANNED | one month before the exercise |
| F3 | Exercise evidence | PLANNED | during the Action week |
| F4 | Decision packets | PLANNED | exercise state only |
| F5 | Proof receipts | PLANNED | scoped to each recorded check |
| F6 | After-action report | PLANNED | within one quarter |
| F7 | Upgrade docket | PLANNED | routed to the Portfolio |
| F8 | Portfolio renewal | PLANNED | Q4 2027 annual edition |
| F9 | Public synthesis | PLANNED | public-safe extracts only |
Mission
- ID
- MSN-CHN-2027-01 · Flood, lifeline and health Universe mission
- Role spine
- Leadership sponsor (NLC) · Institutional anchor (NNC) · Mission lead (NWG)
- Receiving actors
- to be identified with the mandate
7.5Handoffs and routing
Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.
| Finding | Routed to | Purpose | Class |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLI-001 · heat | INI-CHN-CLI-02 | heat, power and care | PUBLIC |
| CLI-002 · rain | INI-CHN-WAT-01 | flood and lifelines | PUBLIC |
| FIN-003 · losses | INI-CHN-FIN-05 · key F review | protection gap | PUBLIC |
| SEI-004 · Dingri | research question A-01 | seismic evidence | PUBLIC |
| WAT-005 · Henan | INI-CHN-WAT-01 | two-province graph | PUBLIC |
| ENE-006 · coal share | INI-CHN-ENE-03 | power mix and pace | PUBLIC |
| FOO-009 · grain | INI-CHN-FOO-04 | import exposure | PUBLIC |
| SYS-012 · compound pathway | MSN-CHN-2027-01 | Universe candidate | CONSORTIUM |
| Class | Where it goes | Who can see it |
|---|---|---|
| PUBLIC | the published edition and its evidence bundle | anyone |
| CONSORTIUM | governed rooms of the national pathway | consortium members under agreement |
| CONTROLLED | need-to-know channels | named competent actors only |
7.6Feeds and signal register
| Feed | Producer | Latency | Feeds into |
|---|---|---|---|
| Climate monitoring and annual bulletin | China Meteorological Administration | monthly and annual | CLI-001 · CLI-002 |
| National natural disaster statistics | Ministry of Emergency Management | monthly | FIN-003 |
| Earthquake reports | China Earthquake Networks Center | real time | SEI-004 |
| Power statistics | National Energy Administration | monthly | ENE-006 |
| Water resources bulletin | Ministry of Water Resources | annual | WAT-005 |
| Statistical communique | National Bureau of Statistics | annual | FOO-009 · HLT-010 |
| Crop brief | FAO GIEWS | periodic | FOO-009 |
Escalation routes
- none · keep monitoring
- research question
- project
- risk object
- quarterly publication
- signal report
| ID | Signal | Corroboration | Systems | Route |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SIG-CHN-001 | Record national hot days in 20253 | CORROBORATED | CLI · HLT | risk object RSK-CHN-CLI-001 |
| SIG-CHN-002 | Record North China rainy season in 20253 | CORROBORATED | CLI · WAT | research question A-01 |
| SIG-CHN-003 | Repeat extreme rain in dense plains (2021, 2025)314 | CORROBORATED | CLI · INF · HLT | initiative A-01 |
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 3National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration (ed.), China Climate Bulletin (2025). CMA, Beijing, 12 February 2026. Observation year 2025.back
- 14Disaster Investigation Team of the State Council (ed.), Investigation Report on the “7·20” Extraordinarily Heavy Rainstorm Disaster in Zhengzhou, Henan. Ministry of Emergency Management, Beijing, January 2022. Observation year 2021.back