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Systems in depth

One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

6 min read0 figures5 tables16 notesNR-COUNTRY-CHN-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1China’s risk is climatic, seismic and demographic at continental scale
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Extreme rain on a dense plain in a hot summer
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
    1. 8.1 Water, the baseline system chapter
    2. 8.2 Energy, the baseline system chapter
    3. 8.3 Food and agrifood, the baseline system chapter
    4. 8.4 Health and One Health, the baseline system chapter
    5. 8.5 Biodiversity and ecosystems, the baseline system chapter
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

8.1Water, the baseline system chapter

China has about 1,990 m³ of renewable freshwater per person, and rain is uneven across space and season, so floods and scarcity coexist. Agriculture takes most withdrawals.

1,992m³

renewable freshwater per person, 20228

62%

of withdrawals for agriculture, 20228

398people

dead or missing, Henan flood 202114

Table 8.1State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Supplyrenewable internal freshwater about 1,992 m³ per person8Reported
Useagriculture 62%, domestic 20%, industry 18% of withdrawals8Reported
FloodsNorth China had a record rainy season in 20253Reported
Total use and storagenational water use by basin not boundMinistry of Water Resources17NOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

  • CLI → WAT heavy rain and flood
  • WAT → FOO irrigation
  • WAT → ENE hydro and cooling
  • WAT → HLT drinking water

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • total water use and storage by basin
  • reservoir and levee condition

8.2Energy, the baseline system chapter

Coal supplied 54.8% of electricity in 2025 and wind and solar 21.9%. Capacity of both fleets is growing, and net energy imports were 24.0% of energy use in 2024.

54.8%

coal share of electricity, 20254

21.9%

wind and solar share, 20254

24.0%

net energy imports, share of energy use, 202410

Table 8.2State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Power mixcoal 54.8%, hydro 13.3%, solar 11.2%, wind 10.7%, nuclear 4.6%, gas 3.2%4Reported
Capacitywind 640.01 GW, solar 1,201.73 GW, thermal 1,539.04 GW1Reported
Consumption6.17 billion tonnes of standard coal, up 3.5%; coal 51.4%1Reported
Clean sharethe NBS clean-energy share of 30.4% includes natural gas, so it is not the non-fossil share in the 2035 aim112Reported

Couplings into other systems

  • TRD → ENE fuel imports
  • ENE → WAT desalination and cooling
  • CLI → ENE peak demand
  • ENE → HLT cooling and power

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • fuel stock depth under disruption
  • grid resilience to flood and heat
  • monthly power statistics from the National Energy Administration19, not retrieved

8.3Food and agrifood, the baseline system chapter

Grain output was 714.88 million tonnes in 2025. Weather, not area, set the year’s risks, and import dependence by commodity is not bound.

714.88million t

grain output, 20251

657.5million t

cereals, FAO, 202511

8.0%

food share of merchandise imports, 202510

Table 8.3State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Outputgrain 714.88 million t on 119.41 million ha, up 1.2%1Reported
Importscereal imports forecast at 37.7 million t for 2025/26, well below average11Reported
Weatherunseasonal October 2025 rains caused local crop losses; winter wheat sowing delayed about three weeks11Reported
Soybeans and feedimport volumes and concentration not boundCustoms20NOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

  • TRD → FOO import dependence
  • WAT → FOO irrigation
  • ENE → FOO fuel and fertiliser
  • CLI → FOO heat, rain and grain quality

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • import concentration by commodity
  • heat effects on yield

8.4Health and One Health, the baseline system chapter

Life expectancy was 78.0 years in 2024, and the population is shrinking and ageing. Record heat in 2025 meets a population in which 15.9% are aged 65 or over. A national heat-death series is not bound.

15.9%

aged 65 or over, 20251

78.0years

life expectancy, 20246

32.0µg/m³

PM2.5 mean annual exposure, 202310

Table 8.4State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Ageing223.65 million aged 65 or over; 323.38 million aged 60 or over1Reported
Births and deaths7.92 million births against 11.31 million deaths1Reported
Heatrecord hot days in 20253Reported
Heat illnessnational heat deaths and illness not boundNational Health Commission21NOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

  • CLI → HLT heat
  • SEI → HLT casualties
  • ENE → HLT cooling and power
  • WAT → HLT drinking water

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • heat deaths and illness
  • care continuity in disasters

8.5Biodiversity and ecosystems, the baseline system chapter

Protection covers 15.6% of land and 4.8% of territorial waters, and forest covers 24.0% of land. Condition outside protected areas is not bound.

15.6%

of land protected, 20257

4.8%

of territorial waters protected, 20257

24.0%

of land under forest, 20247

Table 8.5State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Protectionland 15.6%, territorial waters 4.8%7Reported
Forestforest 24.0% of land; the 2035 contribution aims for a stock above 24 billion m³712Reported
Targetsglobal 30% target for land and sea by 203038Reported
Conditionnational park and ecosystem condition not boundForestry and Grassland Administration22NOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

  • BIO → WAT forest and watershed regulation
  • BIO → FOO pollination and soils
  • CLI → BIO warming and shifting ranges

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • condition outside protected areas
  • marine ecosystem change

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 8World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Renewable internal freshwater resources per capita (ER.H2O.INTR.PC) and Annual freshwater withdrawals by sector (ER.H2O.FWAG.ZS, FWDM, FWIN), from FAO AQUASTAT. World Bank, Washington DC, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year 2022.back
  2. 14Disaster Investigation Team of the State Council (ed.), Investigation Report on the “7·20” Extraordinarily Heavy Rainstorm Disaster in Zhengzhou, Henan. Ministry of Emergency Management, Beijing, January 2022. Observation year 2021.back
  3. 3National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration (ed.), China Climate Bulletin (2025). CMA, Beijing, 12 February 2026. Observation year 2025.back
  4. 17Ministry of Water Resources of China (ed.), China Water Resources Bulletin. MWR, Beijing, retrieval blocked 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available.back
  5. 4Ember (ed.), Yearly Electricity Data: China, generation, capacity and emissions intensity. Ember, London, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year 2025.back
  6. 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Energy imports, net (EG.IMP.CONS.ZS), Food imports (TM.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN) and PM2.5 air pollution, mean annual exposure (EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3). World Bank, Washington DC, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation years 2024, 2025 and 2023.back
  7. 1National Bureau of Statistics of China (ed.), Statistical Communiqué of the People’s Republic of China on the 2025 National Economic and Social Development. NBS, Beijing, 28 February 2026. Observation year 2025.back
  8. 12Government of China (ed.), China’s 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution. Submission to the UNFCCC, Beijing, November 2025. Observation year 2025.back
  9. 19National Energy Administration of China (ed.), power industry statistics. NEA, Beijing, not retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available.back
  10. 11Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: China. FAO, Rome, reference date 29 January 2026. Observation year 2025.back
  11. 20General Administration of Customs of China (ed.), import and export statistics for soybeans and feed. GACC, Beijing, not retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available.back
  12. 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Life expectancy at birth (SP.DYN.LE00.IN) and Mortality rate, infant (SP.DYN.IMRT.IN), from UN DESA World Population Prospects. World Bank, Washington DC, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year 2024.back
  13. 21National Health Commission of China (ed.), Statistical Bulletin on the Development of Health Care. NHC, Beijing, not retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available.back
  14. 7World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Terrestrial protected areas (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS), Marine protected areas (ER.MRN.PTMR.ZS), from UNEP-WCMC and IUCN, and Forest area (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), from FAO. World Bank, Washington DC, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation years 2025 and 2024.back
  15. 38Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022.back
  16. 22National Forestry and Grassland Administration of China (ed.), national park and forest resource statistics. NFGA, Beijing, not retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 8: Systems in depth. In China Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of China’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-CHN-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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