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Germany 2026
Germany
Germany enters 2027 having cut its greenhouse-gas emissions to 649 Mt CO₂e in 2024, 3.4% below 2023 and 48% below 1990, while closing its last nuclear reactors in April 2023 and ending its reliance on Russian pipeline gas within a year. Renewables supplied about 54% of gross electricity consumption in 2024.
- Findings
- 12
- each with its status and source
- Sectors with findings
- 4 of 6
- Infrastructure not assessed
- Risk objects
- 4
- order carries no rank
- Sources
- 40
- Evidence close 30 September 2026
01 · Readings
Germany in six readings.
Six readings that frame the baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.
02 · Sectors
Six sectors, one hexagon.
Water first, then Energy, Infrastructure, Food, Health and Biodiversity. Each count is the findings of this edition in that sector: coverage of the evidence, never a score. Infrastructure is not assessed: the edition holds no Infrastructure finding and its coupling matrix does not assess it.
- WATWater2 findings
≈44% Share of water abstraction for energy supply, 2019. □Reported
Flash floods in small catchments; low Rhine water in dry summers; cooling the largest use.
- ENEEnergy2 findings
≈54% Renewable share of gross electricity consumption, 2024. □Reported
About 54% renewable electricity; nuclear closed 2023; Russian gas replaced.
- INFInfrastructurenot assessed
Rail, roads and bridges destroyed in 2021; inland waterways exposed to low water.
- FOOFood0 findings
≈13% Share of EU agricultural output, 2024. □Reported
A major EU producer; yields cut in dry years.
- HLTHealth1 finding
≈4,500 deaths Heat-related deaths, 2022. □Reported
About 4,500 heat-related deaths in 2022; older people most exposed.
- BIOBiodiversity2 findings
>75% Decline in flying-insect biomass, protected areas, 1989–2016. □Reported
Insect biomass down more than 75%; forests damaged 2018–2021.
Outside the six sectors: Climate forcing 3, Finance 1, Systemic 1.
03 · Hazard exposure
The hazards this edition reads.
The edition’s own risk objects, in its order, each read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and horizon. The hexagon marks the sectors the cascade reaches; the domain beside each is an editorial reading of its hazard words.
RSK-DEU-CLI-001
Flash floods in small, steep catchments
□ReportedEQL 4
- Driver
- stationary storms with extreme rainfall
- Exposure
- valley towns in upland regions
- Vulnerability
- short warning times; uninsured homes [13]
- Capacity
- flood forecasting; civil protection; reconstruction funds
- Cascade
- CLI → WAT → INF, HLT, FIN
- Horizon
- annual
RSK-DEU-WAT-002
Low water on the Rhine
□ReportedEQL 4
- Driver
- dry summers; low snowmelt from the Alps
- Exposure
- freight, chemical and steel supply chains
- Vulnerability
- reliance on one waterway for bulk freight
- Capacity
- part-loading; rail and road diversion
- Cascade
- WAT → TRD → industry, ENE
- Horizon
- seasonal
No domain reading
RSK-DEU-CLI-003
Extreme heat
□ReportedEQL 4
- Driver
- heatwaves and tropical nights
- Exposure
- older people; dense cities
- Vulnerability
- housing without cooling; isolation
- Capacity
- heat-health warnings; heat action plans
- Cascade
- CLI → HLT · CLI → ENE
- Horizon
- seasonal
RSK-DEU-BIO-004
Forest dieback under drought and pests
□ReportedEQL 4
- Driver
- drought, heat and bark beetles
- Exposure
- spruce-dominated forests
- Vulnerability
- monocultures planted for cooler climates
- Capacity
- forest conversion programmes
- Cascade
- CLI → BIO → WAT, carbon
- Horizon
- 5–30 years
Scenario · SCN-DEU-HDR-01
Hot, dry summer with low Rhine water
Under this scenario, results describe a conditional season under stated assumptions. It is not a forecast, and no intervention described here has been carried out.
4 of 12 findings name a hazard in their text. Show them
- 1CLI → WATlow rainfall and snowmelt cut Rhine and Elbe levels
- 2WAT → TRDbarges sail part-loaded; freight costs rise
- 3TRD → industrychemical and steel plants cut output for lack of inputs
- 4CLI → HLTheat deaths among older people rise
- 5CLI → BIOforest fires and bark-beetle damage spread
- 6WAT → ENEcooling-water limits on thermal plants
04 · Couplings
How the sectors carry risk into each other.
The Germany matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.
| From | WAT | ENE | FOO | HLT | BIO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAT | · | Strong | Strong | Moderate | Strong |
| ENE | Moderate | · | Strong | Strong | Moderate |
| FOO | Moderate | Weak | · | Strong | Strong |
| HLT | Weak | Weak | Moderate | · | Weak |
| BIO | Strong | Moderate | Strong | Moderate | · |
Water: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Energy: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Food: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Health: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Biodiversity: 4 couplings out, 4 in. Infrastructure is not in the coupling matrix: none of the edition matrices types it, so it carries no value.
Cascade paths, in the edition’s order
- CLI → WAT → INFextreme rain in small valleys destroys roads, rail and homes□Reported
- CLI → WAT → TRDlow Rhine water restricts freight and industrial supply□Reported
- ENE → industry → FINa gas supply shock raises costs across industry and households□Reported
- CLI → BIO → WATdrought and bark beetles kill forests that regulate water□Reported
- CLI → HLTheatwaves raise deaths among older people□Reported
05 · Findings
Every finding of Germany.
Search, filter by sector, system or status, and sort. The address bar keeps the view, so a filtered list can be shared. Every row opens the finding at its source.
All 12 findings
| ID | Edition | Sector or system | Status | Statement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLI-001 | Germany | CLI Climate forcing | □ Reported | Greenhouse-gas emissions were 649 Mt CO₂e in 2024, 3.4% below 2023 and 48% below 1990. |
| CLI-002 | Germany | CLI Climate forcing | □ Reported | The 2030 target of 65% below 1990 (about 438 Mt) requires cuts of about 35 Mt a year. |
| CLI-003 | Germany | CLI Climate forcing | □ Reported | 2024 was the warmest year in the German record, which begins in 1881. |
| WAT-004 | Germany | WAT Water | □ Reported | The July 2021 floods killed more than 180 people in Germany, 135 in the Ahr valley, and caused damage of about €40 billion. |
| FIN-005 | Germany | FIN Finance | □ Reported | Only about 54% of residential buildings carry natural-hazard insurance. |
| ENE-006 | Germany | ENE Energy | □ Reported | Renewables supplied about 54% of gross electricity consumption in 2024; the last nuclear reactors closed in April 2023. |
| ENE-007 | Germany | ENE Energy | □ Reported | Russian pipeline gas stopped in 2022; supply was secured through storage, new LNG terminals and demand reduction. |
| HLT-008 | Germany | HLT Health | □ Reported | About 4,500 heat-related deaths were estimated in 2022. |
| WAT-009 | Germany | WAT Water | □ Reported | Low water on the Rhine in 2018 and 2022 restricted freight shipping and industrial supply. |
| BIO-010 | Germany | BIO Biodiversity | □ Reported | Flying-insect biomass declined by more than 75% over 27 years in protected areas. |
| BIO-011 | Germany | BIO Biodiversity | □ Reported | About 500,000 hectares of forest were damaged by drought, heat and bark beetles between 2018 and 2021. |
| SYS-012 | Germany | SYS Systemic | ◎ Expert input | The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a hot, dry summer in which low Rhine water cuts freight and industrial supply while heat, drought and forest fires load health, forests and power. |
06 · Editions and calendar
The desks’ editions for Germany.
| Desk | Edition | State | Identifier |
|---|---|---|---|
| GCRI Systems Evidence | Germany 2026 | Drafted, in stewardship review | NR-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 |
| GRF Public Deliberation | Public Deliberation: Germany 2026 | In preparation | |
| GRA Capital Readiness | Capital Readiness: Germany 2026 | In preparation | |
| Standards Progress | No edition in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Academy Capability | No edition in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Index Measurement | Measurement: Germany 2026 | In preparation |
Calendar · 2026 Baseline
- 01Call opensset by the editor
- 02Contribution closeset by the editor
- 03Evidence close30 September 2026
- 04Desk review and releaseset by the editor
- 05Collection compilationset by the editor
- 06Collection releaseset by the editor
- 07Correctionsafter release, as needed
Evidence cut NQ-DEU-2026-Q0-1. Next cycles: Q1 2027, Q2 2027, Q3 2027, Q4 2027; their dates are set by the editor.
07 · Take part
Read it, improve it, cite it.
- ReadThe edition, chapter by chapter, with every source.
- ContributeSend evidence, a source or a method before the next cut.
- ReviewJoin the stewardship review of this edition.
- CiteAPA, Chicago, BibTeX, RIS and the house style, as a draft.
- PDFThe signed PDF is issued at release; print the complete edition today.
Corrections log
| Version | Date | State | Change | Notice |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NR-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 | October 2026 | DRAFT | Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition, | none |
Data gaps3What the repository does not hold yet, and the source proposed for each
| Gap | Shown here as | Proposed source |
|---|---|---|
| Exposure values per hazard (people, assets, hectares) | the edition’s own risk objects, without values | the Index country profile once the Index releases values, risksindex.com/deu/ |
| The NHS-1 hazard types and their assignment to this edition’s risk objects | an editorial reading of the hazard words | the NHS-1 type assignment through the Registry |
| Infrastructure in the coupling matrix | Infrastructure marked not assessed | an Infrastructure row and column in the edition matrix at the next cut |
Send evidence or a correction on Germany.
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