Reports · GCRI · Country profile
Germany 2026
آلمان
Germany enters 2027 having cut its greenhouse-gas emissions to 649 Mt CO₂e in 2024, 3.4% below 2023 and 48% below 1990, while closing its last nuclear reactors in April 2023 and ending its reliance on Russian pipeline gas within a year. Renewables supplied about 54% of gross electricity consumption in 2024.
- یافته‌ها
- 12
- each with its status and source
- Sectors with findings
- 4 of 6
- Infrastructure not assessed
- Risk objects
- 4
- order carries no rank
- منابع
- 40
- Evidence close 30 September 2026
01 · Readings
Germany in six readings.
Six readings that frame the baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.
02 · Sectors
Six sectors, one hexagon.
Water first, then Energy, Infrastructure, Food, Health and Biodiversity. Each count is the findings of this edition in that sector: coverage of the evidence, never a score. Infrastructure is not assessed: the edition holds no Infrastructure finding and its coupling matrix does not assess it.
- WATآب2 findings
≈44% Share of water abstraction for energy supply, 2019. □گزارش‌شده
Flash floods in small catchments; low Rhine water in dry summers; cooling the largest use.
- ENEانرژی2 findings
≈54% Renewable share of gross electricity consumption, 2024. □گزارش‌شده
About 54% renewable electricity; nuclear closed 2023; Russian gas replaced.
- INFزیرساختnot assessed
Rail, roads and bridges destroyed in 2021; inland waterways exposed to low water.
- FOOغذا0 findings
≈13% Share of EU agricultural output, 2024. □گزارش‌شده
A major EU producer; yields cut in dry years.
- HLTسلامت1 finding
≈4,500 deaths Heat-related deaths, 2022. □گزارش‌شده
About 4,500 heat-related deaths in 2022; older people most exposed.
- BIOتنوع زیستی2 findings
>75% Decline in flying-insect biomass, protected areas, 1989–2016. □گزارش‌شده
Insect biomass down more than 75%; forests damaged 2018–2021.
Outside the six sectors: Climate forcing 3, Finance 1, Systemic 1.
03 · Hazard exposure
The hazards this edition reads.
The edition’s own risk objects, in its order, each read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and horizon. The hexagon marks the sectors the cascade reaches; the domain beside each is an editorial reading of its hazard words.
RSK-DEU-CLI-001
Flash floods in small, steep catchments
□گزارش‌شدهEQL 4
- محرک
- stationary storms with extreme rainfall
- مواجهه
- valley towns in upland regions
- آسیب‌پذیری
- short warning times; uninsured homes [13]
- ظرفیت
- flood forecasting; civil protection; reconstruction funds
- آبشار
- CLI → WAT → INF, HLT, FIN
- Horizon
- annual
RSK-DEU-WAT-002
Low water on the Rhine
□گزارش‌شدهEQL 4
- محرک
- dry summers; low snowmelt from the Alps
- مواجهه
- freight, chemical and steel supply chains
- آسیب‌پذیری
- reliance on one waterway for bulk freight
- ظرفیت
- part-loading; rail and road diversion
- آبشار
- WAT → TRD → industry, ENE
- Horizon
- seasonal
No domain reading
RSK-DEU-CLI-003
گرمای شدید
□گزارش‌شدهEQL 4
- محرک
- heatwaves and tropical nights
- مواجهه
- older people; dense cities
- آسیب‌پذیری
- housing without cooling; isolation
- ظرفیت
- heat-health warnings; heat action plans
- آبشار
- CLI → HLT · CLI → ENE
- Horizon
- seasonal
RSK-DEU-BIO-004
Forest dieback under drought and pests
□گزارش‌شدهEQL 4
- محرک
- drought, heat and bark beetles
- مواجهه
- spruce-dominated forests
- آسیب‌پذیری
- monocultures planted for cooler climates
- ظرفیت
- forest conversion programmes
- آبشار
- CLI → BIO → WAT, carbon
- Horizon
- 5–30 years
Scenario · SCN-DEU-HDR-01
Hot, dry summer with low Rhine water
Under this scenario, results describe a conditional season under stated assumptions. It is not a forecast, and no intervention described here has been carried out.
4 of 12 findings name a hazard in their text. Show them
- 1CLI → WATlow rainfall and snowmelt cut Rhine and Elbe levels
- 2WAT → TRDbarges sail part-loaded; freight costs rise
- 3TRD → industrychemical and steel plants cut output for lack of inputs
- 4CLI → HLTheat deaths among older people rise
- 5CLI → BIOforest fires and bark-beetle damage spread
- 6WAT → ENEcooling-water limits on thermal plants
04 · Couplings
How the sectors carry risk into each other.
The Germany matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core سامانه‌ها. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.
| از | WAT | ENE | FOO | HLT | BIO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAT | · | Strong | Strong | متوسط | Strong |
| ENE | متوسط | · | Strong | Strong | متوسط |
| FOO | متوسط | Weak | · | Strong | Strong |
| HLT | Weak | Weak | متوسط | · | Weak |
| BIO | Strong | متوسط | Strong | متوسط | · |
Water: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Energy: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Food: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Health: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Biodiversity: 4 couplings out, 4 in. Infrastructure is not in the coupling matrix: none of the edition matrices types it, so it carries no value.
Cascade paths, in the edition’s order
- CLI → WAT → INFباران بسیار شدید in small valleys destroys roads, rail and homes□گزارش‌شده
- CLI → WAT → TRDlow Rhine water restricts freight and industrial supply□گزارش‌شده
- ENE → industry → FINa gas supply shock raises costs across industry and households□گزارش‌شده
- CLI → BIO → WATdrought and bark beetles kill forests that regulate water□گزارش‌شده
- CLI → HLTheatwaves raise deaths among older people□گزارش‌شده
05 · Findings
Every finding of Germany.
Search, filter by sector, system or status, and sort. The address bar keeps the view, so a filtered list can be shared. Every row opens the finding at its source.
All 12 findings
| ID | ویراست | Sector or system | وضعیت | Statement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLI-001 | آلمان | CLI Climate forcing | □ گزارش‌شده | Greenhouse-gas emissions were 649 Mt CO₂e in 2024, 3.4% below 2023 and 48% below 1990. |
| CLI-002 | آلمان | CLI Climate forcing | □ گزارش‌شده | The 2030 target of 65% below 1990 (about 438 Mt) requires cuts of about 35 Mt a year. |
| CLI-003 | آلمان | CLI Climate forcing | □ گزارش‌شده | 2024 was the warmest year in the German record, which begins in 1881. |
| WAT-004 | آلمان | WAT آب | □ گزارش‌شده | The July 2021 floods killed more than 180 people in Germany, 135 in the Ahr valley, and caused damage of about €40 billion. |
| FIN-005 | آلمان | FIN مالی | □ گزارش‌شده | Only about 54% of residential buildings carry natural-hazard insurance. |
| ENE-006 | آلمان | ENE انرژی | □ گزارش‌شده | Renewables supplied about 54% of gross electricity consumption in 2024; the last nuclear reactors closed in April 2023. |
| ENE-007 | آلمان | ENE انرژی | □ گزارش‌شده | Russian pipeline gas stopped in 2022; supply was secured through storage, new LNG terminals and demand reduction. |
| HLT-008 | آلمان | HLT سلامت | □ گزارش‌شده | About 4,500 heat-related deaths were estimated in 2022. |
| WAT-009 | آلمان | WAT آب | □ گزارش‌شده | Low water on the Rhine in 2018 and 2022 restricted freight shipping and industrial supply. |
| BIO-010 | آلمان | BIO تنوع زیستی | □ گزارش‌شده | Flying-insect biomass declined by more than 75% over 27 years in protected areas. |
| BIO-011 | آلمان | BIO تنوع زیستی | □ گزارش‌شده | About 500,000 hectares of forest were damaged by drought, heat and bark beetles between 2018 and 2021. |
| SYS-012 | آلمان | SYS Systemic | ◎ Expert input | The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a hot, dry summer in which low Rhine water cuts freight and industrial supply while heat, drought and forest fires load health, forests and power. |
06 · Editions and calendar
The desks’ editions for Germany.
| Desk | ویراست | وضعیت | شناسه |
|---|---|---|---|
| GCRI Systems Evidence | Germany 2026 | Drafted, in stewardship review | NR-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 |
| GRF Public Deliberation | رایزنی عمومی: آلمان 2026 | در دست آماده‌سازی | |
| GRA Capital Readiness | آمادگی سرمایه‌ای: آلمان 2026 | در دست آماده‌سازی | |
| Standards Progress | No edition in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Academy Capability | No edition in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Index Measurement | Measurement: Germany 2026 | در دست آماده‌سازی |
Calendar · 2026 Baseline
- 01Call opensset by the editor
- 02Contribution closeset by the editor
- 03بستن شواهد30 September 2026
- 04Desk review and releaseset by the editor
- 05Collection compilationset by the editor
- 06Collection releaseset by the editor
- 07اصلاحیه‌هاafter release, as needed
Evidence cut NQ-DEU-2026-Q0-1. Next cycles: Q1 2027, Q2 2027, Q3 2027, Q4 2027; their dates are set by the editor.
07 · Take part
Read it, improve it, cite it.
- بخوانیدThe edition, chapter by chapter, with every source.
- مشارکتSend evidence, a source or a method before the next cut.
- داوریJoin the stewardship review of this edition.
- CiteAPA, Chicago, BibTeX, RIS and the house style, as a draft.
- PDFThe signed PDF is issued at release; print the complete edition today.
سیاههٔ اصلاحات
| نسخه | Date | وضعیت | تغییر | Notice |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NR-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 | October 2026 | DRAFT | Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition, | هیچ |
Data gaps3What the repository does not hold yet, and the source proposed for each
| شکاف | Shown here as | Proposed source |
|---|---|---|
| Exposure values per hazard (people, assets, hectares) | the edition’s own risk objects, without values | the Index country profile once the Index releases values, risksindex.com/deu/ |
| The NHS-1 hazard types and their assignment to this edition’s risk objects | an editorial reading of the hazard words | the NHS-1 type assignment through the Registry |
| Infrastructure in the coupling matrix | Infrastructure marked not assessed | an Infrastructure row and column in the edition matrix at the next cut |
Send evidence or a correction on Germany.
گزارش‌ها is the Consortium’s quarterly publication, written by six desks. This page sits with the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) سامانه‌ها GCRI قرار دارد. آنچه دربارهٔ این موضوع می‌دانید می‌تواند در ویراست بعدی شواهد، موردی یا اصلاحیه شود، با نام شما و منتشرشده با CC BY 4.0 در صورتی که اثر خودتان باشد. اگر به میز نادرستی برسد، ارجاع می‌شود، رد نمی‌شود.
- ایمیلدرگاه GW-GCRIاز همین صفحه ارسال کنیدشواهد، یک اصلاحیه، یک مورد، یک روش، یک داوری، یک ترجمه یا ورودی نمایه. با برچسب این صفحه میرسد تا ویراستار مسئول آن را دریافت کند.
- Zenodoسپردهٔ بازآن را واگذار کنید و به جامعه ارائه دهیدسابقهٔ خود را با شناسهٔ ORCID خود در Zenodo منتشر کنید و سپس آن را در همانجا به جامعهٔ Reports ارسال کنید. گزینشگران آن را داوری میکنند؛ DOI از آنِ شما میماند.
- گزارش‌هاGCRIببینید کدام دفتر آنچه دارید را میپذیردجدول مسیریابی صفحهٔ مشارکت را میگشاید: آنچه دارید، میزی که آن را میپذیرد، چگونگی داوری و اعتباردهی هر مشارکت، و پروانه.
هرگز داده شخصی، جزئیات حساس زیرساخت یا چیزی را که حق اشتراکش را ندارید نفرستید. هر مشارکت پیش از استفاده داوری می‌شود؛ ارسال آن حق مؤلفی یا ویرایشی نمی‌دهد و حمایت مالی هرگز یافته‌ای را نمی‌خرد.
CC BY 4.0 Free to read. Text and figures: CC BY 4.0. Data: CC0 1.0. Authors keep copyright. Published by GCRI Canada.