Reports · GCRI · Country profile
United Kingdom 2026
المملكة المتحدة
The United Kingdom enters 2027 having cut its territorial emissions by 53% since 1990, to 373 Mt CO₂e in 2024, and closed its last coal-fired power station in September 2024. Its climate risks have moved from projection to record.
- النتائج
- 12
- each with its status and source
- Sectors with findings
- 6 of 6
- on the sector hexagon
- Risk objects
- 4
- order carries no rank
- المصادر
- 40
- Evidence close 30 September 2026
01 · Readings
United Kingdom in six readings.
Six readings that frame the baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.
02 · Sectors
Six sectors, one hexagon.
Water first, then Energy, Infrastructure, Food, Health and Biodiversity. Each count is the findings of this edition in that sector: coverage of the evidence, never a score.
- WATالمياه3 findings
≈5 bn litres/day Projected public water-supply shortfall, England, 2055. ○السيناريو
Flood exposure rising; supply shortfall projected in the South and East; river quality under strain.
- ENEالطاقة1 finding
373 Mt CO₂e Territorial emissions, 2024. □مُبلَّغ عنه
Coal ended in 2024; clean power planned for 2030; grid more central as demand electrifies.
- INFالبنية التحتية1 finding
Lifelines interdependent; single points of failure exposed in 2025.
- FOOالغذاء1 finding
≈60% Share of food consumed that is produced domestically, 2023. □مُبلَّغ عنه
About 60% of food produced domestically; exposed to import and energy prices.
- HLTالصحة1 finding
2,985 deaths Heat-associated deaths, England, 2022. □مُبلَّغ عنه
Heat deaths rising; heat and cold load the NHS and social care.
- BIOالتنوع البيولوجي1 finding
−19% Average change in abundance of studied species, 1970–2021. □مُبلَّغ عنه
Species abundance down 19% since 1970; habitats fragmented.
Outside the six sectors: Climate forcing 2, Governance 1, Systemic 1.
03 · Hazard exposure
The hazards this edition reads.
The edition’s own risk objects, in its order, each read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and horizon. The hexagon marks the sectors the cascade reaches; the domain beside each is an editorial reading of its hazard words.
RSK-GBR-CLI-001
الحرارة الشديدة
□مُبلَّغ عنهEQL 4
- المحرك
- heatwaves above 35–40 °C
- التعرّض
- older people; care homes; dense cities
- قابلية التأثر
- housing not designed for heat; limited cooling
- القدرة
- heat-health alerts; NHS surge planning
- التسلسل المتتالي
- CLI → HLT · CLI → INF rail and power
- الأفق
- seasonal
RSK-GBR-CLI-002
Surface-water and river flooding
□مُبلَّغ عنهEQL 4
RSK-GBR-WAT-003
Drought and water-supply shortfall
○السيناريوEQL 3
- المحرك
- dry summers; population growth
- التعرّض
- South and East of England
- قابلية التأثر
- leakage; limited storage
- القدرة
- new reservoirs; transfers; demand management [9]
- التسلسل المتتالي
- WAT → HLT, FOO, BIO
- الأفق
- 5–30 years
RSK-GBR-INF-004
Single points of failure in lifelines
□مُبلَّغ عنهEQL 3
- المحرك
- fire, flood or cyber event at a critical node
- التعرّض
- airports, hospitals, data centres, rail
- قابلية التأثر
- limited redundancy at key substations [19]
- القدرة
- resilience framework [27]; backup supply
- التسلسل المتتالي
- ENE → INF → DAT, TRD
- الأفق
- any time
Scenario · SCN-GBR-HDS-01
Hot, dry summer in southern England
Under this scenario, results describe a conditional season under stated assumptions. It is not a forecast, and no intervention described here has been carried out.
5 of 12 findings name a hazard in their text. Show them
- 1CLI → WATlow rainfall and heat cut river flows and reservoir levels
- 2CLI → HLTheat deaths and emergency demand rise
- 3CLI → BIOgrassland and heath fires near cities
- 4CLI → INFrail speed restrictions and track failures
- 5WAT → HLThosepipe bans; river quality falls
- 6ENE → HLTcooling demand meets constrained networks
04 · Couplings
How the sectors carry risk into each other.
The United Kingdom matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core النظم. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.
| من | WAT | ENE | FOO | HLT | BIO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAT | · | معتدلة | Strong | معتدلة | Strong |
| ENE | معتدلة | · | Strong | Strong | معتدلة |
| FOO | معتدلة | Weak | · | Strong | Strong |
| HLT | Weak | Weak | معتدلة | · | Weak |
| BIO | Strong | معتدلة | Strong | معتدلة | · |
Water: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Energy: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Food: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Health: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Biodiversity: 4 couplings out, 4 in. Infrastructure is not in the coupling matrix: none of the edition matrices types it, so it carries no value.
Cascade paths, in the edition’s order
- CLI → WAT → HLTheat and drought strain supply and river quality while health demand peaks□مُبلَّغ عنه
- ENE → INF → DATa single substation failure halts an airport and dependent services□مُبلَّغ عنه
- CLI → WAT → FINsurface-water flooding lands on households with costly cover▲Inferred
- ENE → FOOenergy and import prices pass into food prices▲Inferred
- WAT → BIOstorm overflows and low flows degrade rivers□مُبلَّغ عنه
05 · Findings
Every finding of United Kingdom.
Search, filter by sector, system or status, and sort. The address bar keeps the view, so a filtered list can be shared. Every row opens the finding at its source.
All 12 findings
| ID | الطبعة | Sector or system | الحالة | Statement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLI-001 | المملكة المتحدة | CLI Climate forcing | □ مُبلَّغ عنه | Territorial greenhouse-gas emissions were 373 Mt CO₂e in 2024, 3% below 2023 and 53% below 1990. |
| ENE-002 | المملكة المتحدة | ENE الطاقة | □ مُبلَّغ عنه | The UK’s last coal-fired power station closed in September 2024, ending 142 years of coal power. |
| CLI-003 | المملكة المتحدة | CLI Climate forcing | □ مُبلَّغ عنه | 2022 was the first year with a UK mean temperature above 10 °C, and 40.3 °C was recorded on 19 July 2022. |
| HLT-004 | المملكة المتحدة | HLT الصحة | □ مُبلَّغ عنه | About 2,985 heat-associated deaths were recorded in England in summer 2022. |
| WAT-005 | المملكة المتحدة | WAT المياه | ○ السيناريو | England faces a public water-supply shortfall of nearly 5 billion litres a day by 2055 without new action. |
| WAT-006 | المملكة المتحدة | WAT المياه | □ مُبلَّغ عنه | About 6.3 million properties in England are in areas at risk of flooding, potentially around 8 million by 2050. |
| WAT-007 | المملكة المتحدة | WAT المياه | □ مُبلَّغ عنه | Storm overflows in England spilled more than 460,000 times in 2023. |
| FOO-008 | المملكة المتحدة | FOO الغذاء | □ مُبلَّغ عنه | The UK produces around 60% of the food it consumes. |
| BIO-009 | المملكة المتحدة | BIO التنوع البيولوجي | □ مُبلَّغ عنه | Studied species have declined in abundance by 19% on average since 1970; one in six is at risk of extinction in Great Britain. |
| INF-010 | المملكة المتحدة | INF البنية التحتية | □ مُبلَّغ عنه | A substation fire closed Heathrow Airport for most of 21 March 2025, showing single points of failure in البنية التحتية الحيوية. |
| GOV-011 | المملكة المتحدة | GOV الحوكمة | □ مُبلَّغ عنه | The third UK climate تقييم المخاطر identified 61 risks and opportunities; the National Risk Register 2023 sets out 89 risks. |
| SYS-012 | المملكة المتحدة | SYS النظمي | ◎ Expert input | The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a hot, dry summer in which heat, drought, water نقص and grassland fires load health, water, rail and power at once. |
06 · Editions and calendar
The desks’ editions for United Kingdom.
| المكتب | الطبعة | الحالة | المعرّف |
|---|---|---|---|
| GCRI Systems Evidence | United Kingdom 2026 | Drafted, in stewardship review | NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 |
| GRF Public Deliberation | المداولة العامة: المملكة المتحدة 2026 | قيد الإعداد | |
| GRA Capital Readiness | الجاهزية الرأسمالية: المملكة المتحدة 2026 | قيد الإعداد | |
| Standards Progress | No edition in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Academy Capability | No edition in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Index Measurement | Measurement: United Kingdom 2026 | قيد الإعداد |
Calendar · 2026 Baseline
- 01Call opensset by the editor
- 02Contribution closeset by the editor
- 03إغلاق الأدلة30 September 2026
- 04Desk review and releaseset by the editor
- 05Collection compilationset by the editor
- 06Collection releaseset by the editor
- 07التصحيحاتafter release, as needed
Evidence cut NQ-GBR-2026-Q0-1. Next cycles: Q1 2027, Q2 2027, Q3 2027, Q4 2027; their dates are set by the editor.
07 · Take part
Read it, improve it, cite it.
- اقرأThe edition, chapter by chapter, with every source.
- ساهمSend evidence, a source or a method before the next cut.
- المراجعةJoin the stewardship review of this edition.
- CiteAPA, Chicago, BibTeX, RIS and the house style, as a draft.
- PDFThe signed PDF is issued at release; print the complete edition today.
سجل التصحيحات
| الإصدار | التاريخ | الحالة | التغير | إشعار |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 | October 2026 | DRAFT | Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition, | لا شيء |
Data gaps2What the repository does not hold yet, and the source proposed for each
| الفجوة | Shown here as | Proposed source |
|---|---|---|
| Exposure values per hazard (people, assets, hectares) | the edition’s own risk objects, without values | the Index country profile once the Index releases values, risksindex.com/gbr/ |
| The NHS-1 hazard types and their assignment to this edition’s risk objects | an editorial reading of the hazard words | the NHS-1 type assignment through the Registry |
Send evidence or a correction on United Kingdom.
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