Reports · GCRI · Country profile
United Kingdom 2026
بریتانیا
The United Kingdom enters 2027 having cut its territorial emissions by 53% since 1990, to 373 Mt CO₂e in 2024, and closed its last coal-fired power station in September 2024. Its climate risks have moved from projection to record.
- یافته‌ها
- 12
- each with its status and source
- Sectors with findings
- 6 of 6
- on the sector hexagon
- Risk objects
- 4
- order carries no rank
- منابع
- 40
- Evidence close 30 September 2026
01 · Readings
United Kingdom in six readings.
Six readings that frame the baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.
02 · Sectors
Six sectors, one hexagon.
Water first, then Energy, Infrastructure, Food, Health and Biodiversity. Each count is the findings of this edition in that sector: coverage of the evidence, never a score.
- WATآب3 findings
≈5 bn litres/day Projected public water-supply shortfall, England, 2055. ○سناریو
Flood exposure rising; supply shortfall projected in the South and East; river quality under strain.
- ENEانرژی1 finding
373 Mt CO₂e Territorial emissions, 2024. □گزارش‌شده
Coal ended in 2024; clean power planned for 2030; grid more central as demand electrifies.
- INFزیرساخت1 finding
Lifelines interdependent; single points of failure exposed in 2025.
- FOOغذا1 finding
≈60% Share of food consumed that is produced domestically, 2023. □گزارش‌شده
About 60% of food produced domestically; exposed to import and energy prices.
- HLTسلامت1 finding
2,985 deaths Heat-associated deaths, England, 2022. □گزارش‌شده
Heat deaths rising; heat and cold load the NHS and social care.
- BIOتنوع زیستی1 finding
−19% Average change in abundance of studied species, 1970–2021. □گزارش‌شده
Species abundance down 19% since 1970; habitats fragmented.
Outside the six sectors: Climate forcing 2, Governance 1, Systemic 1.
03 · Hazard exposure
The hazards this edition reads.
The edition’s own risk objects, in its order, each read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and horizon. The hexagon marks the sectors the cascade reaches; the domain beside each is an editorial reading of its hazard words.
RSK-GBR-CLI-001
گرمای شدید
□گزارش‌شدهEQL 4
- محرک
- heatwaves above 35–40 °C
- مواجهه
- older people; care homes; dense cities
- آسیب‌پذیری
- housing not designed for heat; limited cooling
- ظرفیت
- heat-health alerts; NHS surge planning
- آبشار
- CLI → HLT · CLI → INF rail and power
- Horizon
- seasonal
RSK-GBR-CLI-002
Surface-water and river flooding
□گزارش‌شدهEQL 4
RSK-GBR-WAT-003
Drought and water-supply shortfall
○سناریوEQL 3
- محرک
- dry summers; population growth
- مواجهه
- South and East of England
- آسیب‌پذیری
- leakage; limited storage
- ظرفیت
- new reservoirs; transfers; demand management [9]
- آبشار
- WAT → HLT, FOO, BIO
- Horizon
- 5–30 years
RSK-GBR-INF-004
Single points of failure in lifelines
□گزارش‌شدهEQL 3
- محرک
- fire, flood or cyber event at a critical node
- مواجهه
- airports, hospitals, data centres, rail
- آسیب‌پذیری
- limited redundancy at key substations [19]
- ظرفیت
- resilience framework [27]; backup supply
- آبشار
- ENE → INF → DAT, TRD
- Horizon
- any time
Scenario · SCN-GBR-HDS-01
Hot, dry summer in southern England
Under this scenario, results describe a conditional season under stated assumptions. It is not a forecast, and no intervention described here has been carried out.
5 of 12 findings name a hazard in their text. Show them
- 1CLI → WATlow rainfall and heat cut river flows and reservoir levels
- 2CLI → HLTheat deaths and emergency demand rise
- 3CLI → BIOgrassland and heath fires near cities
- 4CLI → INFrail speed restrictions and track failures
- 5WAT → HLThosepipe bans; river quality falls
- 6ENE → HLTcooling demand meets constrained networks
04 · Couplings
How the sectors carry risk into each other.
The United Kingdom matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core سامانه‌ها. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.
| از | WAT | ENE | FOO | HLT | BIO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAT | · | متوسط | Strong | متوسط | Strong |
| ENE | متوسط | · | Strong | Strong | متوسط |
| FOO | متوسط | Weak | · | Strong | Strong |
| HLT | Weak | Weak | متوسط | · | Weak |
| BIO | Strong | متوسط | Strong | متوسط | · |
Water: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Energy: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Food: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Health: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Biodiversity: 4 couplings out, 4 in. Infrastructure is not in the coupling matrix: none of the edition matrices types it, so it carries no value.
Cascade paths, in the edition’s order
- CLI → WAT → HLTheat and drought strain supply and river quality while health demand peaks□گزارش‌شده
- ENE → INF → DATa single substation failure halts an airport and dependent services□گزارش‌شده
- CLI → WAT → FINsurface-water flooding lands on households with costly cover▲Inferred
- ENE → FOOenergy and import prices pass into food prices▲Inferred
- WAT → BIOstorm overflows and low flows degrade rivers□گزارش‌شده
05 · Findings
Every finding of United Kingdom.
Search, filter by sector, system or status, and sort. The address bar keeps the view, so a filtered list can be shared. Every row opens the finding at its source.
All 12 findings
| ID | ویراست | Sector or system | وضعیت | Statement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLI-001 | بریتانیا | CLI Climate forcing | □ گزارش‌شده | Territorial greenhouse-gas emissions were 373 Mt CO₂e in 2024, 3% below 2023 and 53% below 1990. |
| ENE-002 | بریتانیا | ENE انرژی | □ گزارش‌شده | The UK’s last coal-fired power station closed in September 2024, ending 142 years of coal power. |
| CLI-003 | بریتانیا | CLI Climate forcing | □ گزارش‌شده | 2022 was the first year with a UK mean temperature above 10 °C, and 40.3 °C was recorded on 19 July 2022. |
| HLT-004 | بریتانیا | HLT سلامت | □ گزارش‌شده | About 2,985 heat-associated deaths were recorded in England in summer 2022. |
| WAT-005 | بریتانیا | WAT آب | ○ سناریو | England faces a public water-supply shortfall of nearly 5 billion litres a day by 2055 without new action. |
| WAT-006 | بریتانیا | WAT آب | □ گزارش‌شده | About 6.3 million properties in England are in areas at risk of flooding, potentially around 8 million by 2050. |
| WAT-007 | بریتانیا | WAT آب | □ گزارش‌شده | Storm overflows in England spilled more than 460,000 times in 2023. |
| FOO-008 | بریتانیا | FOO غذا | □ گزارش‌شده | The UK produces around 60% of the food it consumes. |
| BIO-009 | بریتانیا | BIO تنوع زیستی | □ گزارش‌شده | Studied species have declined in abundance by 19% on average since 1970; one in six is at risk of extinction in Great Britain. |
| INF-010 | بریتانیا | INF زیرساخت | □ گزارش‌شده | A substation fire closed Heathrow Airport for most of 21 March 2025, showing single points of failure in زیرساخت‌های حیاتی. |
| GOV-011 | بریتانیا | GOV حکمرانی | □ گزارش‌شده | The third UK climate ارزیابی ریسک identified 61 risks and opportunities; the National Risk Register 2023 sets out 89 risks. |
| SYS-012 | بریتانیا | SYS Systemic | ◎ Expert input | The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a hot, dry summer in which heat, drought, water کمبود and grassland fires load health, water, rail and power at once. |
06 · Editions and calendar
The desks’ editions for United Kingdom.
| Desk | ویراست | وضعیت | شناسه |
|---|---|---|---|
| GCRI Systems Evidence | United Kingdom 2026 | Drafted, in stewardship review | NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 |
| GRF Public Deliberation | رایزنی عمومی: بریتانیا 2026 | در دست آماده‌سازی | |
| GRA Capital Readiness | آمادگی سرمایه‌ای: بریتانیا 2026 | در دست آماده‌سازی | |
| Standards Progress | No edition in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Academy Capability | No edition in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Index Measurement | Measurement: United Kingdom 2026 | در دست آماده‌سازی |
Calendar · 2026 Baseline
- 01Call opensset by the editor
- 02Contribution closeset by the editor
- 03بستن شواهد30 September 2026
- 04Desk review and releaseset by the editor
- 05Collection compilationset by the editor
- 06Collection releaseset by the editor
- 07اصلاحیه‌هاafter release, as needed
Evidence cut NQ-GBR-2026-Q0-1. Next cycles: Q1 2027, Q2 2027, Q3 2027, Q4 2027; their dates are set by the editor.
07 · Take part
Read it, improve it, cite it.
- بخوانیدThe edition, chapter by chapter, with every source.
- مشارکتSend evidence, a source or a method before the next cut.
- داوریJoin the stewardship review of this edition.
- CiteAPA, Chicago, BibTeX, RIS and the house style, as a draft.
- PDFThe signed PDF is issued at release; print the complete edition today.
سیاههٔ اصلاحات
| نسخه | Date | وضعیت | تغییر | Notice |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 | October 2026 | DRAFT | Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition, | هیچ |
Data gaps2What the repository does not hold yet, and the source proposed for each
| شکاف | Shown here as | Proposed source |
|---|---|---|
| Exposure values per hazard (people, assets, hectares) | the edition’s own risk objects, without values | the Index country profile once the Index releases values, risksindex.com/gbr/ |
| The NHS-1 hazard types and their assignment to this edition’s risk objects | an editorial reading of the hazard words | the NHS-1 type assignment through the Registry |
Send evidence or a correction on United Kingdom.
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