Reports · GCRI · Country profile
United Kingdom 2026
Royaume-Uni
The United Kingdom enters 2027 having cut its territorial emissions by 53% since 1990, to 373 Mt CO₂e in 2024, and closed its last coal-fired power station in September 2024. Its climate risks have moved from projection to record.
- Constats
- 12
- each with its status and source
- Sectors with findings
- 6 of 6
- on the sector hexagon
- Risk objects
- 4
- order carries no rank
- Sources
- 40
- Evidence close 30 September 2026
01 · Readings
United Kingdom in six readings.
Six readings that frame the baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.
02 · Sectors
Six sectors, one hexagon.
Water first, then Energy, Infrastructure, Food, Health and Biodiversity. Each count is the findings of this edition in that sector: coverage of the evidence, never a score.
- WATEau3 findings
≈5 bn litres/day Projected public water-supply shortfall, England, 2055. ○Scénario
Flood exposure rising; supply shortfall projected in the South and East; river quality under strain.
- ENEÉnergie1 finding
373 Mt CO₂e Territorial emissions, 2024. □Déclaré
Coal ended in 2024; clean power planned for 2030; grid more central as demand electrifies.
- INFinfrastructures1 finding
Lifelines interdependent; single points of failure exposed in 2025.
- FOOAlimentation1 finding
≈60% Share of food consumed that is produced domestically, 2023. □Déclaré
About 60% of food produced domestically; exposed to import and energy prices.
- HLTSanté1 finding
2,985 deaths Heat-associated deaths, England, 2022. □Déclaré
Heat deaths rising; heat and cold load the NHS and social care.
- BIOBiodiversité1 finding
−19% Average change in abundance of studied species, 1970–2021. □Déclaré
Species abundance down 19% since 1970; habitats fragmented.
Outside the six sectors: Climate forcing 2, Governance 1, Systemic 1.
03 · Hazard exposure
The hazards this edition reads.
The edition’s own risk objects, in its order, each read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and horizon. The hexagon marks the sectors the cascade reaches; the domain beside each is an editorial reading of its hazard words.
RSK-GBR-CLI-001
chaleur extrême
□DéclaréEQL 4
- Facteur
- heatwaves above 35–40 °C
- Exposition
- older people; care homes; dense cities
- Vulnérabilité
- housing not designed for heat; limited cooling
- Capacité
- heat-health alerts; NHS surge planning
- Cascade
- CLI → HLT · CLI → INF rail and power
- Horizon
- seasonal
RSK-GBR-CLI-002
Surface-water and river flooding
□DéclaréEQL 4
RSK-GBR-WAT-003
Drought and water-supply shortfall
○ScénarioEQL 3
- Facteur
- dry summers; population growth
- Exposition
- South and East of England
- Vulnérabilité
- leakage; limited storage
- Capacité
- new reservoirs; transfers; demand management [9]
- Cascade
- WAT → HLT, FOO, BIO
- Horizon
- 5–30 years
RSK-GBR-INF-004
Single points of failure in lifelines
□DéclaréEQL 3
- Facteur
- fire, flood or cyber event at a critical node
- Exposition
- airports, hospitals, data centres, rail
- Vulnérabilité
- limited redundancy at key substations [19]
- Capacité
- resilience framework [27]; backup supply
- Cascade
- ENE → INF → DAT, TRD
- Horizon
- any time
Scenario · SCN-GBR-HDS-01
Hot, dry summer in southern England
Under this scenario, results describe a conditional season under stated assumptions. It is not a forecast, and no intervention described here has been carried out.
5 of 12 findings name a hazard in their text. Show them
- 1CLI → WATlow rainfall and heat cut river flows and reservoir levels
- 2CLI → HLTheat deaths and emergency demand rise
- 3CLI → BIOgrassland and heath fires near cities
- 4CLI → INFrail speed restrictions and track failures
- 5WAT → HLThosepipe bans; river quality falls
- 6ENE → HLTcooling demand meets constrained networks
04 · Couplings
How the sectors carry risk into each other.
The United Kingdom matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systèmes. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.
| De | WAT | ENE | FOO | HLT | BIO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAT | · | Modérée | Strong | Modérée | Strong |
| ENE | Modérée | · | Strong | Strong | Modérée |
| FOO | Modérée | Weak | · | Strong | Strong |
| HLT | Weak | Weak | Modérée | · | Weak |
| BIO | Strong | Modérée | Strong | Modérée | · |
Water: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Energy: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Food: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Health: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Biodiversity: 4 couplings out, 4 in. Infrastructure is not in the coupling matrix: none of the edition matrices types it, so it carries no value.
Cascade paths, in the edition’s order
- CLI → WAT → HLTheat and drought strain supply and river quality while health demand peaks□Déclaré
- ENE → INF → DATa single substation failure halts an airport and dependent services□Déclaré
- CLI → WAT → FINsurface-water flooding lands on households with costly cover▲Inferred
- ENE → FOOenergy and import prices pass into food prices▲Inferred
- WAT → BIOstorm overflows and low flows degrade rivers□Déclaré
05 · Findings
Every finding of United Kingdom.
Search, filter by sector, system or status, and sort. The address bar keeps the view, so a filtered list can be shared. Every row opens the finding at its source.
All 12 findings
| ID | Édition | Sector or system | Statut | Statement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLI-001 | Royaume-Uni | CLI Climate forcing | □ Déclaré | Territorial greenhouse-gas emissions were 373 Mt CO₂e in 2024, 3% below 2023 and 53% below 1990. |
| ENE-002 | Royaume-Uni | ENE Énergie | □ Déclaré | The UK’s last coal-fired power station closed in September 2024, ending 142 years of coal power. |
| CLI-003 | Royaume-Uni | CLI Climate forcing | □ Déclaré | 2022 was the first year with a UK mean temperature above 10 °C, and 40.3 °C was recorded on 19 July 2022. |
| HLT-004 | Royaume-Uni | HLT Santé | □ Déclaré | About 2,985 heat-associated deaths were recorded in England in summer 2022. |
| WAT-005 | Royaume-Uni | WAT Eau | ○ Scénario | England faces a public water-supply shortfall of nearly 5 billion litres a day by 2055 without new action. |
| WAT-006 | Royaume-Uni | WAT Eau | □ Déclaré | About 6.3 million properties in England are in areas at risk of flooding, potentially around 8 million by 2050. |
| WAT-007 | Royaume-Uni | WAT Eau | □ Déclaré | Storm overflows in England spilled more than 460,000 times in 2023. |
| FOO-008 | Royaume-Uni | FOO Alimentation | □ Déclaré | The UK produces around 60% of the food it consumes. |
| BIO-009 | Royaume-Uni | BIO Biodiversité | □ Déclaré | Studied species have declined in abundance by 19% on average since 1970; one in six is at risk of extinction in Great Britain. |
| INF-010 | Royaume-Uni | INF infrastructures | □ Déclaré | A substation fire closed Heathrow Airport for most of 21 March 2025, showing single points of failure in infrastructures critiques. |
| GOV-011 | Royaume-Uni | GOV Gouvernance | □ Déclaré | The third UK climate évaluation des risques identified 61 risks and opportunities; the National Risk Register 2023 sets out 89 risks. |
| SYS-012 | Royaume-Uni | SYS Systémique | ◎ Expert input | The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a hot, dry summer in which heat, drought, water pénurie and grassland fires load health, water, rail and power at once. |
06 · Editions and calendar
The desks’ editions for United Kingdom.
| Bureau | Édition | État | Identifiant |
|---|---|---|---|
| GCRI Systems Evidence | United Kingdom 2026 | Drafted, in stewardship review | NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 |
| GRF Public Deliberation | Public Deliberation: United Kingdom 2026 | En préparation | |
| GRA Capital Readiness | Capital Readiness: United Kingdom 2026 | En préparation | |
| Standards Progress | No edition in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Academy Capability | No edition in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Index Measurement | Measurement: United Kingdom 2026 | En préparation |
Calendar · 2026 Baseline
- 01Call opensset by the editor
- 02Contribution closeset by the editor
- 03Clôture des preuves30 September 2026
- 04Desk review and releaseset by the editor
- 05Collection compilationset by the editor
- 06Collection releaseset by the editor
- 07Rectificatifsafter release, as needed
Evidence cut NQ-GBR-2026-Q0-1. Next cycles: Q1 2027, Q2 2027, Q3 2027, Q4 2027; their dates are set by the editor.
07 · Take part
Read it, improve it, cite it.
- LireThe edition, chapter by chapter, with every source.
- ContribuerSend evidence, a source or a method before the next cut.
- ExamenJoin the stewardship review of this edition.
- CiteAPA, Chicago, BibTeX, RIS and the house style, as a draft.
- PDFThe signed PDF is issued at release; print the complete edition today.
Journal des corrections
| Version | Date | État | Variation | Notice |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 | October 2026 | DRAFT | Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition, | aucun |
Data gaps2What the repository does not hold yet, and the source proposed for each
| Écart | Shown here as | Proposed source |
|---|---|---|
| Exposure values per hazard (people, assets, hectares) | the edition’s own risk objects, without values | the Index country profile once the Index releases values, risksindex.com/gbr/ |
| The NHS-1 hazard types and their assignment to this edition’s risk objects | an editorial reading of the hazard words | the NHS-1 type assignment through the Registry |
Send evidence or a correction on United Kingdom.
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