Reports · GCRI · Country profile
Japan 2026
ژاپۆن
Japan enters 2027 with record-low emissions, a shrinking and ageing population and one of the world’s most demanding hazard regimes. Greenhouse-gas emissions fell to 1,071 Mt CO₂e in FY2023, 23.3% below FY2013 and 27.1% lower once forest removals are counted, as renewables and nuclear together passed 30% of electricity.
- دۆزینەوەکان
- 12
- each with its status and source
- Sectors with findings
- 4 of 6
- Infrastructure not assessed
- Risk objects
- 4
- order carries no rank
- سەرچاوەکان
- 44
- Evidence close 30 September 2026
01 · Readings
Japan in six readings.
Six readings that frame the Japan baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.
02 · Sectors
Six sectors, one hexagon.
Water first, then Energy, Infrastructure, Food, Health and Biodiversity. Each count is the findings of this edition in that sector: coverage of the evidence, never a score. Infrastructure is not assessed: the edition holds no Infrastructure finding and its coupling matrix does not assess it.
- WATئاو0 findings
2019 Hagibis Share of rivers and supply exposed to typhoon and flood extremes, 2019. □ڕاپۆرتکراو
Ample rainfall but steep, short rivers; flood and landslide risk high; ageing pipes and seismic exposure.
- ENEوزە1 finding
>30% Renewables and nuclear in electricity, FY2023. □ڕاپۆرتکراو
Record-low emissions; >30% clean power; near-total fossil import dependence.
- INFژێرخانnot assessed
Dense, ageing networks; strong seismic codes; remote regions fragile.
- FOOخۆراک1 finding
38% Food self-sufficiency, calorie basis, FY2023. □ڕاپۆرتکراو
38% calorie self-sufficiency; feed and fertiliser largely imported.
- HLTتەندروستی2 findings
97,600 people Heatstroke ambulance transports, May–September, 2024. □ڕاپۆرتکراو
Long life expectancy; heat and ageing load care each summer.
- BIOفرەجۆریی زیندەوەری1 finding
20.5% Land in protected areas, 2023. □ڕاپۆرتکراو
High endemism; protected land about 20.5%, sea about 13.3%.
Outside the six sectors: Climate forcing 2, Finance 1, SEI 2, Systemic 1, Trade 1.
03 · Hazard exposure
The hazards this edition reads.
The edition’s own risk objects, in its order, each read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and horizon. The hexagon marks the sectors the cascade reaches; the domain beside each is an editorial reading of its hazard words.
RSK-JPN-SEI-001
Nankai Trough or Tokyo-area great earthquake
□ڕاپۆرتکراوEQL 4
- هێزی بزوێنەر
- subduction-zone or inland megaquake with تسوونامی
- ڕووبەڕووبوون
- Pacific coast industry, ports, cities
- لاوازی
- older buildings; coastal plants; ageing population
- توانا
- seismic codes; ئاگادارکردنەوەی پێشوەخت; evacuation
- زنجیرەیی
- SEI → INF, ENE, HLT, FIN, TRD
- Horizon
- 30 years
RSK-JPN-CLI-002
Heavy rain, typhoon and river flooding
□ڕاپۆرتکراوEQL 4
- هێزی بزوێنەر
- more intense rainfall and stronger typhoons
- ڕووبەڕووبوون
- floodplains, steep catchments, cities
- لاوازی
- older levees; landslide-prone slopes
- توانا
- basin-wide flood control; warnings
- زنجیرەیی
- CLI → WAT → INF, HLT
- Horizon
- annual
RSK-JPN-HLT-003
Heat and ageing overload of health and care
□ڕاپۆرتکراوEQL 4
- هێزی بزوێنەر
- longer, hotter summers
- ڕووبەڕووبوون
- older adults living alone; outdoor workers
- لاوازی
- limited cooling; workforce shortages
- توانا
- heat alerts; cooling shelters
- زنجیرەیی
- CLI → HLT → ENE peak
- Horizon
- seasonal
RSK-JPN-ENE-004
Fuel and LNG supply disruption
▲InferredEQL 3
- هێزی بزوێنەر
- shipping disruption or price spike
- ڕووبەڕووبوون
- power, industry, households
- لاوازی
- near-total import dependence
- توانا
- oil stockpiles; nuclear and renewables
- زنجیرەیی
- TRD → ENE → FOO, FIN
- Horizon
- 1–5 years
No domain reading
Scenario · SCN-JPN-EQL-01
Great earthquake in an ageing region
Under this scenario, results describe a conditional season under stated assumptions. It is not a forecast, and no intervention described here has been carried out.
3 of 12 findings name a hazard in their text. Show them
- 1SEI → INFroads and ports cut; communities isolated
- 2SEI → WATpipes break; supply out for weeks to months
- 3WAT → HLTcare homes and hospitals lose water and sanitation
- 4CLI → HLTwinter cold raises disaster-related deaths
- 5CLI → INFlater heavy rain reopens landslides
- 6HLT → populationolder residents relocate; recovery slows
04 · Couplings
How the sectors carry risk into each other.
The Japan matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core سیستەمە. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.
| From | WAT | ENE | FOO | HLT | BIO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAT | · | Strong | Strong | مامناوەند | Strong |
| ENE | مامناوەند | · | Strong | Strong | مامناوەند |
| FOO | مامناوەند | Weak | · | Strong | Strong |
| HLT | Weak | Weak | مامناوەند | · | Weak |
| BIO | Strong | مامناوەند | Strong | مامناوەند | · |
Water: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Energy: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Food: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Health: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Biodiversity: 4 couplings out, 4 in. Infrastructure is not in the coupling matrix: none of the edition matrices types it, so it carries no value.
Cascade paths, in the edition’s order
- SEI → WAT → HLTan بوومەلەرزە breaks pipes; care homes and hospitals lose water for weeks□ڕاپۆرتکراو
- SEI → ENE → alla great بوومەلەرزە shuts coastal plants and refineries□ڕاپۆرتکراو
- CLI → WAT → INFheavy rain breaches levees and cuts transport□ڕاپۆرتکراو
- CLI → HLTheat waves load ambulances and care settings□ڕاپۆرتکراو
- TRD → ENE → FOOfuel and fertiliser price shocks pass into food costs▲Inferred
05 · Findings
Every finding of Japan.
Search, filter by sector, system or status, and sort. The address bar keeps the view, so a filtered list can be shared. Every row opens the finding at its source.
All 12 findings
| ID | وەشان | Sector or system | دۆخ | Statement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLI-001 | ژاپۆن | CLI Climate forcing | □ ڕاپۆرتکراو | Greenhouse-gas emissions were 1,071 Mt CO₂e in FY2023: 4.0% below FY2022 and 23.3% below FY2013 (27.1% net of removals). |
| ENE-002 | ژاپۆن | ENE وزە | □ ڕاپۆرتکراو | Renewables and nuclear together supplied more than 30% of electricity in FY2023; Japan still imports almost all of its fossil fuel. |
| CLI-003 | ژاپۆن | CLI Climate forcing | □ ڕاپۆرتکراو | 2024 was the warmest year on record in Japan; the long-term warming trend is about 1.4 °C per century. |
| SEI-004 | ژاپۆن | SEI SEI | □ ڕاپۆرتکراو | The 2025 revision of the Nankai Trough damage estimate gives up to about 298,000 deaths and ¥292 trillion in damage in the worst case. |
| SEI-005 | ژاپۆن | SEI SEI | □ ڕاپۆرتکراو | The January 2024 Noto Peninsula بوومەلەرزە cut water, roads and care across an ageing region for months. |
| FOO-006 | ژاپۆن | FOO خۆراک | □ ڕاپۆرتکراو | Food self-sufficiency was 38% on a calorie basis in FY2023, against a target of 45% by FY2030. |
| HLT-007 | ژاپۆن | HLT تەندروستی | □ ڕاپۆرتکراو | About 97,600 people were taken to hospital by ambulance for heatstroke between May and September 2024. |
| HLT-008 | ژاپۆن | HLT تەندروستی | □ ڕاپۆرتکراو | 29.3% of the population was aged 65 or over in 2024, and births fell to about 686,000. |
| BIO-009 | ژاپۆن | BIO فرەجۆریی زیندەوەری | □ ڕاپۆرتکراو | Protected areas covered about 20.5% of land and 13.3% of the sea in 2023, against 30% by 2030. |
| FIN-010 | ژاپۆن | FIN دارایی | □ ڕاپۆرتکراو | About one in three households holds بوومەلەرزە insurance; public infrastructure losses are largely uninsured. |
| TRD-011 | ژاپۆن | TRD بازرگانی | ▲ Inferred | Dependence on imported fuel, food and feed makes global price and shipping shocks a direct national risk. |
| SYS-012 | ژاپۆن | SYS Systemic | ◎ Expert input | The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a large earthquake in an ageing region that cuts water, power, roads and care together. |
06 · Editions and calendar
The desks’ editions for Japan.
| Desk | وەشان | دۆخ | ناسێنەر |
|---|---|---|---|
| GCRI Systems Evidence | Japan 2026 | Drafted, in stewardship review | NR-COUNTRY-JPN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 |
| GRF Public Deliberation | Public Deliberation: Japan 2026 | لە ئامادەکردندایە | |
| GRA Capital Readiness | Capital Readiness: Japan 2026 | لە ئامادەکردندایە | |
| Standards Progress | No edition in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Academy Capability | No edition in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Index Measurement | Measurement: Japan 2026 | لە ئامادەکردندایە |
Calendar · 2026 Baseline
- 01Call opensset by the editor
- 02Contribution closeset by the editor
- 03Evidence close30 September 2026
- 04Desk review and releaseset by the editor
- 05Collection compilationset by the editor
- 06Collection releaseset by the editor
- 07ڕاستکردنەوەکانafter release, as needed
Evidence cut NQ-JPN-2026-Q0-1. Next cycles: Q1 2027, Q2 2027, Q3 2027, Q4 2027; their dates are set by the editor.
07 · Take part
Read it, improve it, cite it.
- ReadThe edition, chapter by chapter, with every source.
- بەشداربەSend evidence, a source or a method before the next cut.
- پێداچوونەوەJoin the stewardship review of this edition.
- CiteAPA, Chicago, BibTeX, RIS and the house style, as a draft.
- PDFThe signed PDF is issued at release; print the complete edition today.
Corrections log
| وەشان | Date | دۆخ | Change | Notice |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NR-COUNTRY-JPN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 | October 2026 | DRAFT | Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition, | هیچ |
Data gaps3What the repository does not hold yet, and the source proposed for each
| بۆشایی | Shown here as | Proposed source |
|---|---|---|
| Exposure values per hazard (people, assets, hectares) | the edition’s own risk objects, without values | the Index country profile once the Index releases values, risksindex.com/jpn/ |
| The NHS-1 hazard types and their assignment to this edition’s risk objects | an editorial reading of the hazard words | the NHS-1 type assignment through the Registry |
| Infrastructure in the coupling matrix | Infrastructure marked not assessed | an Infrastructure row and column in the edition matrix at the next cut |
Send evidence or a correction on Japan.
Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication, written by six desks. This page sits with the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) سیستەم ی Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) ە. ئەوەی لەسەر ئەم بابەتە دەیزانیت دەتوانێت ببێتە بەڵگە، بابەت یان ڕاستکردنەوە لە وەشانی داهاتوودا، بە ناوی تۆوە و لە ژێر CC BY 4.0 بڵاو دەکرێتەوە ئەگەر کاری خۆت بێت. ئەگەر بۆ بەشی هەڵە نێردرا، دەنێردرێتەوە بۆ بەشی ڕاست و ڕەتناکرێتەوە.
- ئیمەیڵدەروازەی GW-GCRIلەم لاپەڕەیەوە بینێرەبەڵگە، ڕاستکردنەوە، بابەت، ڕێگا، پێداچوونەوە، وەرگێڕان یان تێکردنی پڕۆفایل. بە نیشانەی ئەم لاپەڕەیە دەگات، بۆ ئەوەی دەستکاریکەری خاوەنەکەی وەریبگرێت.
- Zenodoتەکیەی کراوەدایبنێ و بیدە بە کۆمەڵگاتۆماری خۆت لە Zenodo بە ORCID iD ی خۆت بڵاو بکەرەوە، پاشان لەوێ بیدە بە کۆمەڵگای Reports. سەرپەرشتیارەکان پێداچوونەوەی بۆ دەکەن؛ DOI هەر هی تۆیە.
- ReportsGCRIببینە کام بەش ئەوەی هەتە وەری دەگرێتخشتەی ڕێدۆزی لاپەڕەی بەشداریکردن دەکاتەوە: ئەوەی هەتە، بەشی وەرگر، چۆن هەر بەشدارییەک پێداچوونەوەی بۆ دەکرێت و ناوی لەسەر دەنووسرێت، و مۆڵەتەکە.
هەرگیز داتای کەسی، وردەکاریی هەستیاری ژێرخان یان هیچ شتێک مەنێرە کە مافی بڵاوکردنەوەت نییە. بەشدارییەک پێش بەکارهێنان پێداچوونەوەی بۆ دەکرێت؛ ناردنی ماف نابەخشێت بە نووسەرایەتی یان بەڕێوەبردنی ڕاگەیاندن، و پاڵپشتی دارایی هەرگیز دۆزینەوەیەک ناکڕێت.
CC BY 4.0 Free to read. Text and figures: CC BY 4.0. Data: CC0 1.0. Authors keep copyright. Published by GCRI Canada.