Reports · GCRI · Country profile
Japan 2026
Japan
Japan enters 2027 with record-low emissions, a shrinking and ageing population and one of the world’s most demanding hazard regimes. Greenhouse-gas emissions fell to 1,071 Mt CO₂e in FY2023, 23.3% below FY2013 and 27.1% lower once forest removals are counted, as renewables and nuclear together passed 30% of electricity.
- Findings
- 12
- each with its status and source
- Sectors with findings
- 4 of 6
- Infrastructure not assessed
- Risk objects
- 4
- order carries no rank
- Sources
- 44
- Evidence close 30 September 2026
01 · Readings
Japan in six readings.
Six readings that frame the Japan baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.
02 · Sectors
Six sectors, one hexagon.
Water first, then Energy, Infrastructure, Food, Health and Biodiversity. Each count is the findings of this edition in that sector: coverage of the evidence, never a score. Infrastructure is not assessed: the edition holds no Infrastructure finding and its coupling matrix does not assess it.
- WATWater0 findings
2019 Hagibis Share of rivers and supply exposed to typhoon and flood extremes, 2019. □Reported
Ample rainfall but steep, short rivers; flood and landslide risk high; ageing pipes and seismic exposure.
- ENEEnergy1 finding
>30% Renewables and nuclear in electricity, FY2023. □Reported
Record-low emissions; >30% clean power; near-total fossil import dependence.
- INFInfrastructurenot assessed
Dense, ageing networks; strong seismic codes; remote regions fragile.
- FOOFood1 finding
38% Food self-sufficiency, calorie basis, FY2023. □Reported
38% calorie self-sufficiency; feed and fertiliser largely imported.
- HLTHealth2 findings
97,600 people Heatstroke ambulance transports, May–September, 2024. □Reported
Long life expectancy; heat and ageing load care each summer.
- BIOBiodiversity1 finding
20.5% Land in protected areas, 2023. □Reported
High endemism; protected land about 20.5%, sea about 13.3%.
Outside the six sectors: Climate forcing 2, Finance 1, SEI 2, Systemic 1, Trade 1.
03 · Hazard exposure
The hazards this edition reads.
The edition’s own risk objects, in its order, each read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and horizon. The hexagon marks the sectors the cascade reaches; the domain beside each is an editorial reading of its hazard words.
RSK-JPN-SEI-001
Nankai Trough or Tokyo-area great earthquake
□ReportedEQL 4
- Driver
- subduction-zone or inland megaquake with tsunami
- Exposure
- Pacific coast industry, ports, cities
- Vulnerability
- older buildings; coastal plants; ageing population
- Capacity
- seismic codes; early warning; evacuation
- Cascade
- SEI → INF, ENE, HLT, FIN, TRD
- Horizon
- 30 years
RSK-JPN-CLI-002
Heavy rain, typhoon and river flooding
□ReportedEQL 4
- Driver
- more intense rainfall and stronger typhoons
- Exposure
- floodplains, steep catchments, cities
- Vulnerability
- older levees; landslide-prone slopes
- Capacity
- basin-wide flood control; warnings
- Cascade
- CLI → WAT → INF, HLT
- Horizon
- annual
RSK-JPN-HLT-003
Heat and ageing overload of health and care
□ReportedEQL 4
- Driver
- longer, hotter summers
- Exposure
- older adults living alone; outdoor workers
- Vulnerability
- limited cooling; workforce shortages
- Capacity
- heat alerts; cooling shelters
- Cascade
- CLI → HLT → ENE peak
- Horizon
- seasonal
RSK-JPN-ENE-004
Fuel and LNG supply disruption
▲InferredEQL 3
- Driver
- shipping disruption or price spike
- Exposure
- power, industry, households
- Vulnerability
- near-total import dependence
- Capacity
- oil stockpiles; nuclear and renewables
- Cascade
- TRD → ENE → FOO, FIN
- Horizon
- 1–5 years
No domain reading
Scenario · SCN-JPN-EQL-01
Great earthquake in an ageing region
Under this scenario, results describe a conditional season under stated assumptions. It is not a forecast, and no intervention described here has been carried out.
3 of 12 findings name a hazard in their text. Show them
- 1SEI → INFroads and ports cut; communities isolated
- 2SEI → WATpipes break; supply out for weeks to months
- 3WAT → HLTcare homes and hospitals lose water and sanitation
- 4CLI → HLTwinter cold raises disaster-related deaths
- 5CLI → INFlater heavy rain reopens landslides
- 6HLT → populationolder residents relocate; recovery slows
04 · Couplings
How the sectors carry risk into each other.
The Japan matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.
| From | WAT | ENE | FOO | HLT | BIO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAT | · | Strong | Strong | Moderate | Strong |
| ENE | Moderate | · | Strong | Strong | Moderate |
| FOO | Moderate | Weak | · | Strong | Strong |
| HLT | Weak | Weak | Moderate | · | Weak |
| BIO | Strong | Moderate | Strong | Moderate | · |
Water: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Energy: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Food: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Health: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Biodiversity: 4 couplings out, 4 in. Infrastructure is not in the coupling matrix: none of the edition matrices types it, so it carries no value.
Cascade paths, in the edition’s order
- SEI → WAT → HLTan earthquake breaks pipes; care homes and hospitals lose water for weeks□Reported
- SEI → ENE → alla great earthquake shuts coastal plants and refineries□Reported
- CLI → WAT → INFheavy rain breaches levees and cuts transport□Reported
- CLI → HLTheat waves load ambulances and care settings□Reported
- TRD → ENE → FOOfuel and fertiliser price shocks pass into food costs▲Inferred
05 · Findings
Every finding of Japan.
Search, filter by sector, system or status, and sort. The address bar keeps the view, so a filtered list can be shared. Every row opens the finding at its source.
All 12 findings
| ID | Edition | Sector or system | Status | Statement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLI-001 | Japan | CLI Climate forcing | □ Reported | Greenhouse-gas emissions were 1,071 Mt CO₂e in FY2023: 4.0% below FY2022 and 23.3% below FY2013 (27.1% net of removals). |
| ENE-002 | Japan | ENE Energy | □ Reported | Renewables and nuclear together supplied more than 30% of electricity in FY2023; Japan still imports almost all of its fossil fuel. |
| CLI-003 | Japan | CLI Climate forcing | □ Reported | 2024 was the warmest year on record in Japan; the long-term warming trend is about 1.4 °C per century. |
| SEI-004 | Japan | SEI SEI | □ Reported | The 2025 revision of the Nankai Trough damage estimate gives up to about 298,000 deaths and ¥292 trillion in damage in the worst case. |
| SEI-005 | Japan | SEI SEI | □ Reported | The January 2024 Noto Peninsula earthquake cut water, roads and care across an ageing region for months. |
| FOO-006 | Japan | FOO Food | □ Reported | Food self-sufficiency was 38% on a calorie basis in FY2023, against a target of 45% by FY2030. |
| HLT-007 | Japan | HLT Health | □ Reported | About 97,600 people were taken to hospital by ambulance for heatstroke between May and September 2024. |
| HLT-008 | Japan | HLT Health | □ Reported | 29.3% of the population was aged 65 or over in 2024, and births fell to about 686,000. |
| BIO-009 | Japan | BIO Biodiversity | □ Reported | Protected areas covered about 20.5% of land and 13.3% of the sea in 2023, against 30% by 2030. |
| FIN-010 | Japan | FIN Finance | □ Reported | About one in three households holds earthquake insurance; public infrastructure losses are largely uninsured. |
| TRD-011 | Japan | TRD Trade | ▲ Inferred | Dependence on imported fuel, food and feed makes global price and shipping shocks a direct national risk. |
| SYS-012 | Japan | SYS Systemic | ◎ Expert input | The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a large earthquake in an ageing region that cuts water, power, roads and care together. |
06 · Editions and calendar
The desks’ editions for Japan.
| Desk | Edition | State | Identifier |
|---|---|---|---|
| GCRI Systems Evidence | Japan 2026 | Drafted, in stewardship review | NR-COUNTRY-JPN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 |
| GRF Public Deliberation | Public Deliberation: Japan 2026 | In preparation | |
| GRA Capital Readiness | Capital Readiness: Japan 2026 | In preparation | |
| Standards Progress | No edition in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Academy Capability | No edition in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Index Measurement | Measurement: Japan 2026 | In preparation |
Calendar · 2026 Baseline
- 01Call opensset by the editor
- 02Contribution closeset by the editor
- 03Evidence close30 September 2026
- 04Desk review and releaseset by the editor
- 05Collection compilationset by the editor
- 06Collection releaseset by the editor
- 07Correctionsafter release, as needed
Evidence cut NQ-JPN-2026-Q0-1. Next cycles: Q1 2027, Q2 2027, Q3 2027, Q4 2027; their dates are set by the editor.
07 · Take part
Read it, improve it, cite it.
- ReadThe edition, chapter by chapter, with every source.
- ContributeSend evidence, a source or a method before the next cut.
- ReviewJoin the stewardship review of this edition.
- CiteAPA, Chicago, BibTeX, RIS and the house style, as a draft.
- PDFThe signed PDF is issued at release; print the complete edition today.
Corrections log
| Version | Date | State | Change | Notice |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NR-COUNTRY-JPN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 | October 2026 | DRAFT | Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition, | none |
Data gaps3What the repository does not hold yet, and the source proposed for each
| Gap | Shown here as | Proposed source |
|---|---|---|
| Exposure values per hazard (people, assets, hectares) | the edition’s own risk objects, without values | the Index country profile once the Index releases values, risksindex.com/jpn/ |
| The NHS-1 hazard types and their assignment to this edition’s risk objects | an editorial reading of the hazard words | the NHS-1 type assignment through the Registry |
| Infrastructure in the coupling matrix | Infrastructure marked not assessed | an Infrastructure row and column in the edition matrix at the next cut |
Send evidence or a correction on Japan.
Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication, written by six desks. This page sits with the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) Systems Evidence desk. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work. Sent to the wrong desk, it is forwarded, not refused.
- EmailGateway GW-GCRISend it from this pageEvidence, a correction, a case, a method, a review, a translation or profile input. It arrives tagged with this page, so the editor who owns it receives it.
- ZenodoOpen depositDeposit it and submit to the communityPublish your own record on Zenodo with your ORCID iD, then submit it to the Reports community there. Curators review it; the DOI stays yours.
- ReportsGCRISee which desk takes what you haveThe routing table opens the contribution page: what you have, the desk that takes it, how each contribution is reviewed and credited, and the licence.
Never send personal data, sensitive infrastructure detail or anything you have no right to share. A contribution is reviewed before use; sending it confers no authorship or editorial rights, and sponsorship never buys a finding.
CC BY 4.0 Free to read. Text and figures: CC BY 4.0. Data: CC0 1.0. Authors keep copyright. Published by GCRI Canada.