Reports · GCRI · Country profile
Japan 2026
जापान
Japan enters 2027 with record-low emissions, a shrinking and ageing population and one of the world’s most demanding hazard regimes. Greenhouse-gas emissions fell to 1,071 Mt CO₂e in FY2023, 23.3% below FY2013 and 27.1% lower once forest removals are counted, as renewables and nuclear together passed 30% of electricity.
- निष्कर्ष
- 12
- each with its status and source
- Sectors with findings
- 4 of 6
- Infrastructure not assessed
- Risk objects
- 4
- order carries no rank
- स्रोत
- 44
- Evidence close 30 September 2026
01 · Readings
Japan in six readings.
Six readings that frame the Japan baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.
02 · Sectors
Six sectors, one hexagon.
Water first, then Energy, Infrastructure, Food, Health and Biodiversity. Each count is the findings of this edition in that sector: coverage of the evidence, never a score. Infrastructure is not assessed: the edition holds no Infrastructure finding and its coupling matrix does not assess it.
- WATजल0 findings
2019 Hagibis Share of rivers and supply exposed to typhoon and flood extremes, 2019. □रिपोर्ट किया गया
Ample rainfall but steep, short rivers; flood and landslide risk high; ageing pipes and seismic exposure.
- ENEऊर्जा1 finding
>30% Renewables and nuclear in electricity, FY2023. □रिपोर्ट किया गया
Record-low emissions; >30% clean power; near-total fossil import dependence.
- INFअवसंरचनाnot assessed
Dense, ageing networks; strong seismic codes; remote regions fragile.
- FOOखाद्य1 finding
38% Food self-sufficiency, calorie basis, FY2023. □रिपोर्ट किया गया
38% calorie self-sufficiency; feed and fertiliser largely imported.
- HLTस्वास्थ्य2 findings
97,600 people Heatstroke ambulance transports, May–September, 2024. □रिपोर्ट किया गया
Long life expectancy; heat and ageing load care each summer.
- BIOजैव विविधता1 finding
20.5% Land in protected areas, 2023. □रिपोर्ट किया गया
High endemism; protected land about 20.5%, sea about 13.3%.
Outside the six sectors: Climate forcing 2, Finance 1, SEI 2, Systemic 1, Trade 1.
03 · Hazard exposure
The hazards this edition reads.
The edition’s own risk objects, in its order, each read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and horizon. The hexagon marks the sectors the cascade reaches; the domain beside each is an editorial reading of its hazard words.
RSK-JPN-SEI-001
Nankai Trough or Tokyo-area great earthquake
□रिपोर्ट किया गयाEQL 4
- चालक
- subduction-zone or inland megaquake with सुनामी
- जोखिम-अनावरण
- Pacific coast industry, ports, cities
- भेद्यता
- older buildings; coastal plants; ageing population
- क्षमता
- seismic codes; पूर्व चेतावनी; evacuation
- कैस्केड
- SEI → INF, ENE, HLT, FIN, TRD
- क्षितिज
- 30 years
RSK-JPN-CLI-002
Heavy rain, typhoon and river flooding
□रिपोर्ट किया गयाEQL 4
- चालक
- more intense rainfall and stronger typhoons
- जोखिम-अनावरण
- floodplains, steep catchments, cities
- भेद्यता
- older levees; landslide-prone slopes
- क्षमता
- basin-wide flood control; warnings
- कैस्केड
- CLI → WAT → INF, HLT
- क्षितिज
- वार्षिक
RSK-JPN-HLT-003
Heat and ageing overload of health and care
□रिपोर्ट किया गयाEQL 4
- चालक
- longer, hotter summers
- जोखिम-अनावरण
- older adults living alone; outdoor workers
- भेद्यता
- limited cooling; workforce shortages
- क्षमता
- heat alerts; cooling shelters
- कैस्केड
- CLI → HLT → ENE peak
- क्षितिज
- seasonal
RSK-JPN-ENE-004
Fuel and LNG supply disruption
▲InferredEQL 3
- चालक
- shipping disruption or price spike
- जोखिम-अनावरण
- power, industry, households
- भेद्यता
- near-total import dependence
- क्षमता
- oil stockpiles; nuclear and renewables
- कैस्केड
- TRD → ENE → FOO, FIN
- क्षितिज
- 1–5 years
No domain reading
Scenario · SCN-JPN-EQL-01
Great earthquake in an ageing region
Under this scenario, results describe a conditional season under stated assumptions. It is not a forecast, and no intervention described here has been carried out.
3 of 12 findings name a hazard in their text. Show them
- 1SEI → INFroads and ports cut; communities isolated
- 2SEI → WATpipes break; supply out for weeks to months
- 3WAT → HLTcare homes and hospitals lose water and sanitation
- 4CLI → HLTwinter cold raises disaster-related deaths
- 5CLI → INFlater heavy rain reopens landslides
- 6HLT → populationolder residents relocate; recovery slows
04 · Couplings
How the sectors carry risk into each other.
The Japan matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core प्रणालियाँ. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.
| से | WAT | ENE | FOO | HLT | BIO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAT | · | Strong | Strong | मध्यम | Strong |
| ENE | मध्यम | · | Strong | Strong | मध्यम |
| FOO | मध्यम | Weak | · | Strong | Strong |
| HLT | Weak | Weak | मध्यम | · | Weak |
| BIO | Strong | मध्यम | Strong | मध्यम | · |
Water: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Energy: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Food: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Health: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Biodiversity: 4 couplings out, 4 in. Infrastructure is not in the coupling matrix: none of the edition matrices types it, so it carries no value.
Cascade paths, in the edition’s order
- SEI → WAT → HLTan भूकंप breaks pipes; care homes and hospitals lose water for weeks□रिपोर्ट किया गया
- SEI → ENE → alla great भूकंप shuts coastal plants and refineries□रिपोर्ट किया गया
- CLI → WAT → INFheavy rain breaches levees and cuts transport□रिपोर्ट किया गया
- CLI → HLTheat waves load ambulances and care settings□रिपोर्ट किया गया
- TRD → ENE → FOOfuel and fertiliser price shocks pass into food costs▲Inferred
05 · Findings
Every finding of Japan.
Search, filter by sector, system or status, and sort. The address bar keeps the view, so a filtered list can be shared. Every row opens the finding at its source.
All 12 findings
| ID | संस्करण | Sector or system | स्थिति | Statement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLI-001 | जापान | CLI Climate forcing | □ रिपोर्ट किया गया | Greenhouse-gas emissions were 1,071 Mt CO₂e in FY2023: 4.0% below FY2022 and 23.3% below FY2013 (27.1% net of removals). |
| ENE-002 | जापान | ENE ऊर्जा | □ रिपोर्ट किया गया | Renewables and nuclear together supplied more than 30% of electricity in FY2023; Japan still imports almost all of its fossil fuel. |
| CLI-003 | जापान | CLI Climate forcing | □ रिपोर्ट किया गया | 2024 was the warmest year on record in Japan; the long-term warming trend is about 1.4 °C per century. |
| SEI-004 | जापान | SEI SEI | □ रिपोर्ट किया गया | The 2025 revision of the Nankai Trough damage estimate gives up to about 298,000 deaths and ¥292 trillion in damage in the worst case. |
| SEI-005 | जापान | SEI SEI | □ रिपोर्ट किया गया | The January 2024 Noto Peninsula भूकंप cut water, roads and care across an ageing region for months. |
| FOO-006 | जापान | FOO खाद्य | □ रिपोर्ट किया गया | Food self-sufficiency was 38% on a calorie basis in FY2023, against a target of 45% by FY2030. |
| HLT-007 | जापान | HLT स्वास्थ्य | □ रिपोर्ट किया गया | About 97,600 people were taken to hospital by ambulance for heatstroke between May and September 2024. |
| HLT-008 | जापान | HLT स्वास्थ्य | □ रिपोर्ट किया गया | 29.3% of the population was aged 65 or over in 2024, and births fell to about 686,000. |
| BIO-009 | जापान | BIO जैव विविधता | □ रिपोर्ट किया गया | Protected areas covered about 20.5% of land and 13.3% of the sea in 2023, against 30% by 2030. |
| FIN-010 | जापान | FIN वित्त | □ रिपोर्ट किया गया | About one in three households holds भूकंप insurance; public infrastructure losses are largely uninsured. |
| TRD-011 | जापान | TRD व्यापार | ▲ Inferred | Dependence on imported fuel, food and feed makes global price and shipping shocks a direct national risk. |
| SYS-012 | जापान | SYS प्रणालीगत | ◎ Expert input | The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a large earthquake in an ageing region that cuts water, power, roads and care together. |
06 · Editions and calendar
The desks’ editions for Japan.
| डेस्क | संस्करण | स्थिति | पहचानकर्ता |
|---|---|---|---|
| GCRI Systems Evidence | Japan 2026 | Drafted, in stewardship review | NR-COUNTRY-JPN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 |
| GRF Public Deliberation | Public Deliberation: Japan 2026 | तैयारी में | |
| GRA Capital Readiness | Capital Readiness: Japan 2026 | तैयारी में | |
| Standards Progress | No edition in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Academy Capability | No edition in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Index Measurement | Measurement: Japan 2026 | तैयारी में |
Calendar · 2026 Baseline
- 01Call opensset by the editor
- 02Contribution closeset by the editor
- 03साक्ष्य समापन30 September 2026
- 04Desk review and releaseset by the editor
- 05Collection compilationset by the editor
- 06Collection releaseset by the editor
- 07सुधारafter release, as needed
Evidence cut NQ-JPN-2026-Q0-1. Next cycles: Q1 2027, Q2 2027, Q3 2027, Q4 2027; their dates are set by the editor.
07 · Take part
Read it, improve it, cite it.
- पढ़ेंThe edition, chapter by chapter, with every source.
- योगदान देंSend evidence, a source or a method before the next cut.
- समीक्षाJoin the stewardship review of this edition.
- CiteAPA, Chicago, BibTeX, RIS and the house style, as a draft.
- PDFThe signed PDF is issued at release; print the complete edition today.
सुधार लॉग
| संस्करण | तिथि | स्थिति | बदलाव | सूचना |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NR-COUNTRY-JPN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 | October 2026 | DRAFT | Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition, | कोई नहीं |
Data gaps3What the repository does not hold yet, and the source proposed for each
| अंतराल | Shown here as | Proposed source |
|---|---|---|
| Exposure values per hazard (people, assets, hectares) | the edition’s own risk objects, without values | the Index country profile once the Index releases values, risksindex.com/jpn/ |
| The NHS-1 hazard types and their assignment to this edition’s risk objects | an editorial reading of the hazard words | the NHS-1 type assignment through the Registry |
| Infrastructure in the coupling matrix | Infrastructure marked not assessed | an Infrastructure row and column in the edition matrix at the next cut |
Send evidence or a correction on Japan.
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