European Union Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026

S.1Abstract

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the European Union baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

1. Net domestic emissions were 40% below 1990 in 2024; the 2040 target is 90%.¹⁴

   Where do emissions stand?Reported

2. Net imports cover 57% of energy needs, and renewables reached 25.2% of final energy.⁷⁸

   How secure is energy supply?Reported

3. Its share of gas imports fell to 12% in 2025, and a phase-out regulation is in force.⁹¹⁰

   What changed for Russian gas?Reported

4. A study models 62,775 heat-related deaths in 32 European countries in summer 2024.¹⁷

   Is heat now a health hazard?Reported

5. Scarcity touched 28% of EU land and 32% of people in 2023.¹⁹

   How much water stress is there?Reported

6. A record 1,079,538 hectares burnt, about 39% inside Natura 2000 sites.²²

   What did the 2025 fire season show?Reported

7. Less than 20% of EUR 822 billion of losses was privately insured.²³

   Who carries the losses?Reported

8. A summer of heat, drought and fire across several member states, met by tight energy supply. SCN-EU-CLI-01

   What will Q1 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-FIN-010

Weather and climate extremes caused about EUR 822 billion of economic losses in the EU from 1980 to 2024, a quarter of it between 2021 and 2024, and less than 20% of the total was privately insured.

Losses are concentrated in a small share of events, and most of the cost falls outside private insurance, so public budgets and households carry much of it. An EIOPA and ECB paper proposes a two-pillar EU scheme to narrow the gap; it is a proposal, not law²⁵²⁶.

S.4At a glance

S.5What each steward reads in it

S.6What this edition is, and is not

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1European Environment Agency (ed.), Annual European Union greenhouse gas inventory 1990 to 2024 and inventory document 2026, EEA Report 04/2026. EEA, Copenhagen, 17 April 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
2. 4European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2026/667 amending Regulation (EU) 2021/1119 (2040 target). Official Journal of the European Union, 18 March 2026.back
3. 7Eurostat (ed.), “25.2% of energy EU used in 2024 came from renewables.” News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 18 December 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
4. 8Eurostat (ed.), “Energy in Europe: imports dependency.” News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 18 March 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
5. 11European Parliament and Council (eds.), Directive (EU) 2023/2413 amending the Renewable Energy Directive (RED III). Official Journal of the European Union, 2023.back
6. 9European Commission, DG Energy (ed.), REPowerEU roadmap: ending dependence on Russian energy. European Commission, Brussels, page read 2026-11-03.back
7. 10European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2026/261 on the phase-out of Russian natural gas imports. Official Journal of the European Union, 2 February 2026.back
8. 16Copernicus Climate Change Service and World Meteorological Organization (eds.), European State of the Climate 2024. ECMWF, Bonn, 15 April 2025.back
9. 17T. Janoš, M. Quijal-Zamorano, N. Shartova et al., “Heat-related mortality in Europe during 2024 and health emergency forecasting to reduce preventable deaths,” Nature Medicine, September 2025. doi:10.1038/s41591-025-03954-7. doi:10.1038/s41591-025-03954-7back
10. 22Joint Research Centre (ed.), “2025 was the EU’s most destructive wildfire season on record.” News, European Commission, Ispra, 31 March 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
11. 23European Environment Agency (ed.), “Economic losses from weather- and climate-related extremes in Europe.” Indicator, EEA, Copenhagen, 14 October 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
12. 19European Environment Agency (ed.), “Water scarcity conditions in Europe (Water exploitation index plus).” Indicator, EEA, Copenhagen, 28 November 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
13. 25European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (ed.), Dashboard on insurance protection gap for natural catastrophes. EIOPA, Frankfurt, 2023.back
14. 26European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority and European Central Bank (eds.), Towards a European system for natural catastrophe risk management. Joint paper, Frankfurt, 18 December 2024.back
15. 13Eurostat (ed.), “EU population continued to grow in 2025.” News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 10 July 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
16. 14Eurostat (ed.), Demography of Europe, 2026 edition. Interactive publication, Eurostat, Luxembourg, May 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

• Where is the European Union’s risk concentrated, and in which systems?
• Which couplings carry shocks from one system to the next?
• Which capabilities hold under compound stress, and which are only documented?
• What must the 2027 programme measure first?

In this part

• Narrative
• Headline finding
• Lead figure
• Five system chapters
• Twelve-domain reading
• Sector screens
• Dependency matrix
• Risk objects
• Capability ladder
• Scenario
• Three lenses
• Portfolio

1.2The argument

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The European Union matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

Transmission paths

1. 01

   CLI → HLT

   Heat raises deaths, mainly among older people.

   Reported summer 2024¹⁷

2. 02

   CLI → BIO

   Heat and drought feed wildfire that burns protected sites.

   Reported fires 2025²²

3. 03

   CLI → HLT

   Warmer seasons let mosquito-borne disease spread locally.

   Reported chikungunya 2025³³

4. 04

   CLI → WAT → FOO

   Drought and heat cut water for crops and rivers.

   Inferred scarcity 2023¹⁹

5. 05

   TRD → ENE → FOO

   Gas and fertiliser supply shocks pass into food costs.

   Inferred import dependence⁸

1.4Reinforcing loops

A shock entering either system of a loop can return amplified through the other.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 15Copernicus Climate Change Service and World Meteorological Organization (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025. ECMWF, Bonn, 29 April 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
2. 16Copernicus Climate Change Service and World Meteorological Organization (eds.), European State of the Climate 2024. ECMWF, Bonn, 15 April 2025.back
3. 17T. Janoš, M. Quijal-Zamorano, N. Shartova et al., “Heat-related mortality in Europe during 2024 and health emergency forecasting to reduce preventable deaths,” Nature Medicine, September 2025. doi:10.1038/s41591-025-03954-7. doi:10.1038/s41591-025-03954-7back
4. 22Joint Research Centre (ed.), “2025 was the EU’s most destructive wildfire season on record.” News, European Commission, Ispra, 31 March 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
5. 1European Environment Agency (ed.), Annual European Union greenhouse gas inventory 1990 to 2024 and inventory document 2026, EEA Report 04/2026. EEA, Copenhagen, 17 April 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
6. 7Eurostat (ed.), “25.2% of energy EU used in 2024 came from renewables.” News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 18 December 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
7. 8Eurostat (ed.), “Energy in Europe: imports dependency.” News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 18 March 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
8. 9European Commission, DG Energy (ed.), REPowerEU roadmap: ending dependence on Russian energy. European Commission, Brussels, page read 2026-11-03.back
9. 10European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2026/261 on the phase-out of Russian natural gas imports. Official Journal of the European Union, 2 February 2026.back
10. 13Eurostat (ed.), “EU population continued to grow in 2025.” News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 10 July 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
11. 14Eurostat (ed.), Demography of Europe, 2026 edition. Interactive publication, Eurostat, Luxembourg, May 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
12. 31Eurostat (ed.), Regions in Europe, 2025 edition. Interactive publication, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
13. 23European Environment Agency (ed.), “Economic losses from weather- and climate-related extremes in Europe.” Indicator, EEA, Copenhagen, 14 October 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
14. 26European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority and European Central Bank (eds.), Towards a European system for natural catastrophe risk management. Joint paper, Frankfurt, 18 December 2024.back
15. 2European Environment Agency (ed.), Trends and projections in Europe 2025, EEA Report 08/2025. EEA, Copenhagen, 6 November 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
16. 4European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2026/667 amending Regulation (EU) 2021/1119 (2040 target). Official Journal of the European Union, 18 March 2026.back
17. 5European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2021/1119 establishing the framework for achieving climate neutrality (European Climate Law). Official Journal of the European Union, 2021.back
18. 33European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ed.), Seasonal surveillance of chikungunya virus disease in the EU/EEA, 2025, data submitted to 31 December 2025. ECDC, Stockholm, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
19. 19European Environment Agency (ed.), “Water scarcity conditions in Europe (Water exploitation index plus).” Indicator, EEA, Copenhagen, 28 November 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-FIN-010

Weather and climate extremes caused about EUR 822 billion of economic losses in the EU from 1980 to 2024, a quarter of it between 2021 and 2024, and less than 20% of the total was privately insured.

Implication

Losses are concentrated in a small share of events, and most of the cost falls outside private insurance, so public budgets and households carry much of it. An EIOPA and ECB paper proposes a two-pillar EU scheme to narrow the gap; it is a proposal, not law²⁵²⁶.

What would move it

Insured-loss data for 2025 events, reforms of national schemes and any legislative proposal at EU level would each move this finding.

2.2Climate forcing

1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001

   Net domestic greenhouse-gas emissions were 40% below 1990 in 2024 and 3% below 2023; on the 2030 target basis the cut was 37%.¹²

2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002

   A 90% net cut by 2040 is now in the European Climate Law, and Member States collectively expect 54% by 2030 against a 55% target.²⁴

3. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-CLI-006

   2024 was the warmest year on record for Europe, and at least 95% of Europe was above average in 2025.¹⁵¹⁶

2.3Energy

1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-ENE-003

   Renewables supplied 25.2% of gross final energy consumption in 2024, 17.3 points below the 42.5% target for 2030.⁷¹¹

2. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-ENE-004

   Net imports covered 57% of EU energy needs in 2024, and oil made up 67% of energy imports.⁸

2.4Trade

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-TRD-005

   The Russian share of EU gas imports fell from 45% to 12% in 2025, and a regulation to phase out Russian gas has been in force since 3 February 2026.⁹¹⁰

2.5Health

1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-HLT-007

   A peer-reviewed study models 62,775 heat-related deaths in 32 European countries in summer 2024.¹⁷

2.6Water

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-WAT-008

   Water scarcity conditions affected 28% of EU land and 32% of the EU population in at least one season in 2023.¹⁹

2.7Biodiversity

1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-BIO-009

   The EU burnt 1,079,538 hectares in 2025, the highest since records began in 2006; about 39% fell inside Natura 2000 sites.²²

2.8Finance

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-FIN-010

   Weather and climate extremes caused about EUR 822 billion of losses from 1980 to 2024, and less than 20% was privately insured.²³

2.9Food

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-FOO-011

   The EU had 9.1 million farms in 2020, 5.3 million fewer than in 2005, and 33.2% of farm managers were 65 or over.³⁰³¹

2.10Systemic

1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

   The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a summer of heat, drought and fire across several member states at once, met by tight energy supply. §9.3

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 23European Environment Agency (ed.), “Economic losses from weather- and climate-related extremes in Europe.” Indicator, EEA, Copenhagen, 14 October 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
2. 25European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (ed.), Dashboard on insurance protection gap for natural catastrophes. EIOPA, Frankfurt, 2023.back
3. 26European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority and European Central Bank (eds.), Towards a European system for natural catastrophe risk management. Joint paper, Frankfurt, 18 December 2024.back
4. 1European Environment Agency (ed.), Annual European Union greenhouse gas inventory 1990 to 2024 and inventory document 2026, EEA Report 04/2026. EEA, Copenhagen, 17 April 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
5. 2European Environment Agency (ed.), Trends and projections in Europe 2025, EEA Report 08/2025. EEA, Copenhagen, 6 November 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
6. 4European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2026/667 amending Regulation (EU) 2021/1119 (2040 target). Official Journal of the European Union, 18 March 2026.back
7. 15Copernicus Climate Change Service and World Meteorological Organization (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025. ECMWF, Bonn, 29 April 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
8. 16Copernicus Climate Change Service and World Meteorological Organization (eds.), European State of the Climate 2024. ECMWF, Bonn, 15 April 2025.back
9. 7Eurostat (ed.), “25.2% of energy EU used in 2024 came from renewables.” News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 18 December 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
10. 11European Parliament and Council (eds.), Directive (EU) 2023/2413 amending the Renewable Energy Directive (RED III). Official Journal of the European Union, 2023.back
11. 8Eurostat (ed.), “Energy in Europe: imports dependency.” News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 18 March 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
12. 9European Commission, DG Energy (ed.), REPowerEU roadmap: ending dependence on Russian energy. European Commission, Brussels, page read 2026-11-03.back
13. 10European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2026/261 on the phase-out of Russian natural gas imports. Official Journal of the European Union, 2 February 2026.back
14. 17T. Janoš, M. Quijal-Zamorano, N. Shartova et al., “Heat-related mortality in Europe during 2024 and health emergency forecasting to reduce preventable deaths,” Nature Medicine, September 2025. doi:10.1038/s41591-025-03954-7. doi:10.1038/s41591-025-03954-7back
15. 19European Environment Agency (ed.), “Water scarcity conditions in Europe (Water exploitation index plus).” Indicator, EEA, Copenhagen, 28 November 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
16. 22Joint Research Centre (ed.), “2025 was the EU’s most destructive wildfire season on record.” News, European Commission, Ispra, 31 March 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
17. 30Eurostat (ed.), “EU farms: 5.3 million fewer in 2020 than in 2005.” News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 3 April 2023, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
18. 31Eurostat (ed.), Regions in Europe, 2025 edition. Interactive publication, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries risk into other systems.

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened on the same grammar, so that later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 19European Environment Agency (ed.), “Water scarcity conditions in Europe (Water exploitation index plus).” Indicator, EEA, Copenhagen, 28 November 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
2. 7Eurostat (ed.), “25.2% of energy EU used in 2024 came from renewables.” News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 18 December 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
3. 31Eurostat (ed.), Regions in Europe, 2025 edition. Interactive publication, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
4. 17T. Janoš, M. Quijal-Zamorano, N. Shartova et al., “Heat-related mortality in Europe during 2024 and health emergency forecasting to reduce preventable deaths,” Nature Medicine, September 2025. doi:10.1038/s41591-025-03954-7. doi:10.1038/s41591-025-03954-7back
5. 27European Environment Agency (ed.), “Protected areas,” in Europe’s environment 2025: biodiversity and ecosystems. EEA, Copenhagen, 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
6. 23European Environment Agency (ed.), “Economic losses from weather- and climate-related extremes in Europe.” Indicator, EEA, Copenhagen, 14 October 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
7. 8Eurostat (ed.), “Energy in Europe: imports dependency.” News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 18 March 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
8. 30Eurostat (ed.), “EU farms: 5.3 million fewer in 2020 than in 2005.” News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 3 April 2023, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
9. 33European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ed.), Seasonal surveillance of chikungunya virus disease in the EU/EEA, 2025, data submitted to 31 December 2025. ECDC, Stockholm, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
10. 24European Environment Agency (ed.), European Climate Risk Assessment, EEA Report 01/2024. EEA, Copenhagen, March 2024.back
11. 15Copernicus Climate Change Service and World Meteorological Organization (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025. ECMWF, Bonn, 29 April 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
12. 16Copernicus Climate Change Service and World Meteorological Organization (eds.), European State of the Climate 2024. ECMWF, Bonn, 15 April 2025.back
13. 39European Commission and High Representative (eds.), EU Preparedness Union Strategy. Joint Communication, Brussels, 26 March 2025.back
14. 40European Commission (ed.), EU Stockpiling Strategy, COM(2025) 528. Brussels, 9 July 2025.back
15. 41European Parliament and Council (eds.), Decision No 1313/2013/EU on a Union Civil Protection Mechanism, as amended. Official Journal of the European Union, 2013.back
16. 35European Parliament and Council (eds.), Directive (EU) 2022/2557 on the resilience of critical entities. Official Journal of the European Union, 2022.back
17. 22Joint Research Centre (ed.), “2025 was the EU’s most destructive wildfire season on record.” News, European Commission, Ispra, 31 March 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
18. 36European Parliament and Council (eds.), Directive (EU) 2022/2555 on measures for a high common level of cybersecurity (NIS2). Official Journal of the European Union, 2022.back
19. 4European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2026/667 amending Regulation (EU) 2021/1119 (2040 target). Official Journal of the European Union, 18 March 2026.back

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

1. ReportedEQL 4RSK-EU-CLI-001

   Heat, drought and wildfire in a single season

   Driver

   longer, hotter summers

   Exposure

   southern and central member states; forests and protected sites

   Vulnerability

   older population; scarcity on 28% of land¹⁹

   Capacity

   civil protection mechanism and rescEU⁴¹

   Cascade

   CLI → WAT, HLT, BIO, ENE

   Horizon

   seasonal

2. InferredEQL 3RSK-EU-ENE-002

   Gas supply disruption during the Russian phase-out

   Driver

   loss of remaining Russian volumes or an LNG price spike

   Exposure

   power, industry, heating

   Vulnerability

   imports cover 57% of energy⁸

   Capacity

   storage rules and stockpiling strategy¹²⁴⁰

   Cascade

   TRD → ENE → FOO, FIN

   Horizon

   1 to 3 years

3. ReportedEQL 3RSK-EU-FIN-003

   Uninsured catastrophe losses reach public budgets

   Driver

   floods, storms, heat and fire

   Exposure

   households and public infrastructure

   Vulnerability

   less than 20% of losses insured²³

   Capacity

   national schemes; an EIOPA and ECB proposal²⁶

   Cascade

   CLI → FIN → public budgets

   Horizon

   annual

4. ReportedEQL 3RSK-EU-HLT-004

   Heat and vector-borne disease load on health systems

   Driver

   longer summers and warmer seasons for mosquitoes

   Exposure

   older adults; southern regions

   Vulnerability

   22.0% of the population aged 65 or over¹⁴

   Capacity

   ECDC surveillance in operation³³³⁴

   Cascade

   CLI → HLT → ENE peak

   Horizon

   seasonal

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 19European Environment Agency (ed.), “Water scarcity conditions in Europe (Water exploitation index plus).” Indicator, EEA, Copenhagen, 28 November 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
2. 41European Parliament and Council (eds.), Decision No 1313/2013/EU on a Union Civil Protection Mechanism, as amended. Official Journal of the European Union, 2013.back
3. 8Eurostat (ed.), “Energy in Europe: imports dependency.” News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 18 March 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
4. 12European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2022/1032 on gas storage. Official Journal of the European Union, 2022.back
5. 40European Commission (ed.), EU Stockpiling Strategy, COM(2025) 528. Brussels, 9 July 2025.back
6. 23European Environment Agency (ed.), “Economic losses from weather- and climate-related extremes in Europe.” Indicator, EEA, Copenhagen, 14 October 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
7. 26European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority and European Central Bank (eds.), Towards a European system for natural catastrophe risk management. Joint paper, Frankfurt, 18 December 2024.back
8. 14Eurostat (ed.), Demography of Europe, 2026 edition. Interactive publication, Eurostat, Luxembourg, May 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
9. 33European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ed.), Seasonal surveillance of chikungunya virus disease in the EU/EEA, 2025, data submitted to 31 December 2025. ECDC, Stockholm, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
10. 34European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ed.), Seasonal surveillance of dengue in the EU/EEA, 2025, data submitted to 19 November 2025. ECDC, Stockholm, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
11. 4European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2026/667 amending Regulation (EU) 2021/1119 (2040 target). Official Journal of the European Union, 18 March 2026.back
12. 5European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2021/1119 establishing the framework for achieving climate neutrality (European Climate Law). Official Journal of the European Union, 2021.back
13. 15Copernicus Climate Change Service and World Meteorological Organization (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025. ECMWF, Bonn, 29 April 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
14. 16Copernicus Climate Change Service and World Meteorological Organization (eds.), European State of the Climate 2024. ECMWF, Bonn, 15 April 2025.back
15. 22Joint Research Centre (ed.), “2025 was the EU’s most destructive wildfire season on record.” News, European Commission, Ispra, 31 March 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
16. 39European Commission and High Representative (eds.), EU Preparedness Union Strategy. Joint Communication, Brussels, 26 March 2025.back
17. 43UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 to 2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015.back
18. 35European Parliament and Council (eds.), Directive (EU) 2022/2557 on the resilience of critical entities. Official Journal of the European Union, 2022.back
19. 36European Parliament and Council (eds.), Directive (EU) 2022/2555 on measures for a high common level of cybersecurity (NIS2). Official Journal of the European Union, 2022.back
20. 20European Commission (ed.), European Water Resilience Strategy. Communication, Brussels, 4 June 2025.back
21. 28European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2024/1991 on nature restoration. Official Journal of the European Union, 2024.back
22. 24European Environment Agency (ed.), European Climate Risk Assessment, EEA Report 01/2024. EEA, Copenhagen, March 2024.back

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-EU-CLI-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline

the 2026 reference state in this edition

Drivers

a prolonged heatwave and drought across several southern and central member states, with wildfire and a tight gas market in the same season

Analogues

summer 2024 heat deaths¹⁷; the 2025 fire season²²

Interventions

none modelled; the specification describes the unmitigated case

Run state

narrative specification; quantified Foundry run scheduled for Q1 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

1. 1

   CLI → HLT

   prolonged heat raises deaths, mainly among older people

   summer 2024¹⁷

2. 2

   CLI → BIO

   wildfire burns forest and protected sites

   fires 2025²²

3. 3

   CLI → WAT

   scarcity spreads across basins

   scarcity 2023¹⁹

4. 4

   WAT → ENE

   heat and low flows strain cooling and raise peak demand

   to be bound in 2027

5. 5

   ENE → HLT

   tight supply while cooling is most needed

   to be bound in 2027

6. 6

   HLT → FIN

   uninsured losses fall on public budgets

   losses 1980 to 2024²³

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-EU-CLI-01 would travel through European Union’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: European Union 2026, scenario SCN-EU-CLI-01 (2026); European Union 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 17T. Janoš, M. Quijal-Zamorano, N. Shartova et al., “Heat-related mortality in Europe during 2024 and health emergency forecasting to reduce preventable deaths,” Nature Medicine, September 2025. doi:10.1038/s41591-025-03954-7. doi:10.1038/s41591-025-03954-7back
2. 22Joint Research Centre (ed.), “2025 was the EU’s most destructive wildfire season on record.” News, European Commission, Ispra, 31 March 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
3. 19European Environment Agency (ed.), “Water scarcity conditions in Europe (Water exploitation index plus).” Indicator, EEA, Copenhagen, 28 November 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
4. 23European Environment Agency (ed.), “Economic losses from weather- and climate-related extremes in Europe.” Indicator, EEA, Copenhagen, 14 October 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back

6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject

Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.

6.2Three lenses

One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.

6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions

How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for the European Union. The standards are preparatory working drafts (October 2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.

6.4GCRI reading: the model card

GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology

6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.

6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: q1 2027 readiness pack

The registers that open the first operational quarter. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.

Publication dispositions

• Publish
• Hold
• Needs evidence
• Restricted
• Superseded

6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Instruments that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.

• IN FORCE
• ADOPTED
• SUBMITTED
• UNDER REVIEW
• PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY

6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments

The review behind this edition covers peer-reviewed science, national and international assessments and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Full systematic reviews begin in Q1 2027 for each agenda item.

Review protocol

Question

What does the published evidence establish about the European Union’s coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity risks?

Sources searched

peer-reviewed literature; national and international assessments; official releases; industry loss data

Window

releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026

Selection

sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition

Next step

systematic reviews for agenda items A-01 to A-05 in Q1 2027

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 23European Environment Agency (ed.), “Economic losses from weather- and climate-related extremes in Europe.” Indicator, EEA, Copenhagen, 14 October 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
2. 26European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority and European Central Bank (eds.), Towards a European system for natural catastrophe risk management. Joint paper, Frankfurt, 18 December 2024.back
3. 4European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2026/667 amending Regulation (EU) 2021/1119 (2040 target). Official Journal of the European Union, 18 March 2026.back
4. 5European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2021/1119 establishing the framework for achieving climate neutrality (European Climate Law). Official Journal of the European Union, 2021.back
5. 6Council of the European Union (ed.), Updated nationally determined contribution of the European Union with a 2035 range of 66.25% to 72.5% net reduction against 1990. Submission to the UNFCCC, November 2025.back
6. 45UNFCCC (ed.), Paris Agreement. United Nations, Paris, 2015.back
7. 11European Parliament and Council (eds.), Directive (EU) 2023/2413 amending the Renewable Energy Directive (RED III). Official Journal of the European Union, 2023.back
8. 10European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2026/261 on the phase-out of Russian natural gas imports. Official Journal of the European Union, 2 February 2026.back
9. 28European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2024/1991 on nature restoration. Official Journal of the European Union, 2024.back
10. 35European Parliament and Council (eds.), Directive (EU) 2022/2557 on the resilience of critical entities. Official Journal of the European Union, 2022.back
11. 36European Parliament and Council (eds.), Directive (EU) 2022/2555 on measures for a high common level of cybersecurity (NIS2). Official Journal of the European Union, 2022.back
12. 37European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2024/1252 establishing a framework for secure and sustainable supply of critical raw materials. Official Journal of the European Union, 2024.back
13. 44Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022.back
14. 38European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2024/1689 laying down harmonised rules on artificial intelligence. Official Journal of the European Union, 2024.back
15. 12European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2022/1032 on gas storage. Official Journal of the European Union, 2022.back
16. 42H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023.back
17. 46P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054back
18. 47J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018.back
19. 17T. Janoš, M. Quijal-Zamorano, N. Shartova et al., “Heat-related mortality in Europe during 2024 and health emergency forecasting to reduce preventable deaths,” Nature Medicine, September 2025. doi:10.1038/s41591-025-03954-7. doi:10.1038/s41591-025-03954-7back
20. 24European Environment Agency (ed.), European Climate Risk Assessment, EEA Report 01/2024. EEA, Copenhagen, March 2024.back
21. 48S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.back
22. 18European Environment Agency (ed.), Europe’s environment 2025. EEA, Copenhagen, 29 September 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
23. 2European Environment Agency (ed.), Trends and projections in Europe 2025, EEA Report 08/2025. EEA, Copenhagen, 6 November 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
24. 20European Commission (ed.), European Water Resilience Strategy. Communication, Brussels, 4 June 2025.back
25. 39European Commission and High Representative (eds.), EU Preparedness Union Strategy. Joint Communication, Brussels, 26 March 2025.back
26. 40European Commission (ed.), EU Stockpiling Strategy, COM(2025) 528. Brussels, 9 July 2025.back
27. 1European Environment Agency (ed.), Annual European Union greenhouse gas inventory 1990 to 2024 and inventory document 2026, EEA Report 04/2026. EEA, Copenhagen, 17 April 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
28. 7Eurostat (ed.), “25.2% of energy EU used in 2024 came from renewables.” News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 18 December 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
29. 8Eurostat (ed.), “Energy in Europe: imports dependency.” News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 18 March 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
30. 13Eurostat (ed.), “EU population continued to grow in 2025.” News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 10 July 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
31. 14Eurostat (ed.), Demography of Europe, 2026 edition. Interactive publication, Eurostat, Luxembourg, May 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
32. 30Eurostat (ed.), “EU farms: 5.3 million fewer in 2020 than in 2005.” News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 3 April 2023, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
33. 31Eurostat (ed.), Regions in Europe, 2025 edition. Interactive publication, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
34. 33European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ed.), Seasonal surveillance of chikungunya virus disease in the EU/EEA, 2025, data submitted to 31 December 2025. ECDC, Stockholm, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
35. 34European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ed.), Seasonal surveillance of dengue in the EU/EEA, 2025, data submitted to 19 November 2025. ECDC, Stockholm, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
36. 25European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (ed.), Dashboard on insurance protection gap for natural catastrophes. EIOPA, Frankfurt, 2023.back
37. 22Joint Research Centre (ed.), “2025 was the EU’s most destructive wildfire season on record.” News, European Commission, Ispra, 31 March 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
38. 49S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.back
39. 15Copernicus Climate Change Service and World Meteorological Organization (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025. ECMWF, Bonn, 29 April 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back

7.1Questions for the operational series

1. A-01

   How would a season of heat, drought and fire hit health, water, farming and power across several member states at once?

   INI-EU-CLI-01 · compound summer stress; first output: dependency graph for two southern regions.

2. A-02

   How resilient is gas supply through the Russian phase-out, with storage, LNG and pipeline routes?

   INI-EU-ENE-02 · gas supply resilience; first output: route-and-storage register.

3. A-03

   How exposed are food systems to fertiliser and feed import shocks?

   INI-EU-FOO-03 · food input exposure; first output: input dependence table.

4. A-04

   How much heat-health surge capacity exists, and where do mosquito-borne diseases add load?

   INI-EU-HLT-04 · heat and new diseases; first output: surge baseline for five regions.

5. A-05

   Where do flood, fire and storm losses fall on the uninsured, and on public budgets?

   INI-EU-FIN-05 · protection gap; first output: peril-by-member-state loss table.

6. A-06

   How do shared river basins perform under drought and flood?

   INI-EU-WAT-01 · workstream; first output: basin performance note.

7. A-07

   How resilient are critical raw material and digital supply chains to concentrated supply?

   To be admitted in Q1 2027; first output: scoping note.

8. A-08

   Which capabilities have been tested in real events, and which are only planned?

   EU capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for admission at the Q1 2027 alignment. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

7.3The pathway

European Union is the national pathway through which the Nexus operating system will run in the European Union from 2027. At baseline the pathway is designed and its records are prepared; its councils and working groups are constituted from Q1 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next, nothing more.

1. 01

   One National Agenda

   bounded national questions for the year

   DRAFT 2027 · agenda review at the Q1 alignment

2. 02

   National Desk

   coordination, records, routing and continuity

   DESIGNED · constituted in Q1 2027

3. 03

   National Model

   the country as a system of systems

   v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with the first Foundry cut

4. 04

   National Portfolio

   risks, capabilities, initiatives, projects, missions

   7 PROPOSED · admission at the Q1 alignment

5. 05

   Foundry

   continuous computational environment

   PREPARED · first sealed cut NQ-EU-2027-Q1

6. 06

   Reports

   quarterly and annual publication

   BASELINE ISSUED · Q1 2027 · State & Agenda

7. 07

   Universe

   annual proving environment

   CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate set in 2027

8. 08

   Evidence and correction

   after-action, correction and renewal

   OPEN · first correction cycle in Q2 2027

7.4Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission

1. 01

   Mandate

2. 02

   Core Build · 1 month

3. 03

   Action · 1 week

4. 04

   Evidence seal

5. 05

   Portfolio correction

6. 06

   Next mandate

Mission

ID

MSN-EU-2027-01 · Compound summer Universe mission

Role spine

Leadership sponsor (NLC) · Institutional anchor (NNC) · Mission lead (NWG)

Receiving actors

to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

7.6Feeds and signal register

Escalation routes

• none · keep monitoring
• research question
• project
• risk object
• quarterly publication
• signal report

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 22Joint Research Centre (ed.), “2025 was the EU’s most destructive wildfire season on record.” News, European Commission, Ispra, 31 March 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
2. 33European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ed.), Seasonal surveillance of chikungunya virus disease in the EU/EEA, 2025, data submitted to 31 December 2025. ECDC, Stockholm, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
3. 9European Commission, DG Energy (ed.), REPowerEU roadmap: ending dependence on Russian energy. European Commission, Brussels, page read 2026-11-03.back

8.1Water, the baseline system chapter

Water stress is a growing feature of the Union, and its response so far is a strategy with a non-binding efficiency aim.

8.2Energy, the baseline system chapter

Emissions are falling and renewables reached 25.2% of final energy in 2024, but imports cover 57% of energy needs and the 2030 renewables target is 17.3 points away.

8.3Food and agrifood, the baseline system chapter

Farms are fewer and their managers older. Dependence on imported fertiliser and feed matters for food security, but this edition cannot yet show it with sourced numbers.

8.4Health and One Health, the baseline system chapter

Europe is ageing and warming. Heat now causes tens of thousands of modelled deaths a summer, and mosquito-borne diseases have begun to spread locally.

8.5Biodiversity and ecosystems, the baseline system chapter

Protection is growing but short of 30%, and wildfire burnt a record area in 2025, about four hectares in ten inside Natura 2000 sites.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 19European Environment Agency (ed.), “Water scarcity conditions in Europe (Water exploitation index plus).” Indicator, EEA, Copenhagen, 28 November 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
2. 20European Commission (ed.), European Water Resilience Strategy. Communication, Brussels, 4 June 2025.back
3. 21European Parliament and Council (eds.), Directive 2000/60/EC establishing a framework for Community action in the field of water policy (Water Framework Directive). Official Journal of the European Communities, 2000.back
4. 7Eurostat (ed.), “25.2% of energy EU used in 2024 came from renewables.” News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 18 December 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
5. 8Eurostat (ed.), “Energy in Europe: imports dependency.” News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 18 March 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
6. 9European Commission, DG Energy (ed.), REPowerEU roadmap: ending dependence on Russian energy. European Commission, Brussels, page read 2026-11-03.back
7. 1European Environment Agency (ed.), Annual European Union greenhouse gas inventory 1990 to 2024 and inventory document 2026, EEA Report 04/2026. EEA, Copenhagen, 17 April 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
8. 10European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2026/261 on the phase-out of Russian natural gas imports. Official Journal of the European Union, 2 February 2026.back
9. 12European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2022/1032 on gas storage. Official Journal of the European Union, 2022.back
10. 30Eurostat (ed.), “EU farms: 5.3 million fewer in 2020 than in 2005.” News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 3 April 2023, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
11. 31Eurostat (ed.), Regions in Europe, 2025 edition. Interactive publication, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
12. 32Eurostat (ed.), “EU organic farming: 16.9 million hectares in 2022.” News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 19 June 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
13. 29European Commission (ed.), EU Biodiversity Strategy for 2030: Bringing nature back into our lives, COM(2020) 380. Brussels, 2020.back
14. 17T. Janoš, M. Quijal-Zamorano, N. Shartova et al., “Heat-related mortality in Europe during 2024 and health emergency forecasting to reduce preventable deaths,” Nature Medicine, September 2025. doi:10.1038/s41591-025-03954-7. doi:10.1038/s41591-025-03954-7back
15. 14Eurostat (ed.), Demography of Europe, 2026 edition. Interactive publication, Eurostat, Luxembourg, May 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
16. 34European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ed.), Seasonal surveillance of dengue in the EU/EEA, 2025, data submitted to 19 November 2025. ECDC, Stockholm, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
17. 33European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ed.), Seasonal surveillance of chikungunya virus disease in the EU/EEA, 2025, data submitted to 31 December 2025. ECDC, Stockholm, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
18. 27European Environment Agency (ed.), “Protected areas,” in Europe’s environment 2025: biodiversity and ecosystems. EEA, Copenhagen, 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
19. 22Joint Research Centre (ed.), “2025 was the EU’s most destructive wildfire season on record.” News, European Commission, Ispra, 31 March 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
20. 28European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2024/1991 on nature restoration. Official Journal of the European Union, 2024.back

A.1Methods

The baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.

A.2Model card, National Model v0

Model ID

MDL-EU-NATIONAL · v0.1

Purpose

represent the European Union as coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems with forcing and transmission layers

Family

graph-based system of systems

Inputs

the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data

Method

expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from evidence and analogue events

Validation

none yet, first validation against Q1 2027 Foundry evidence

Uncertainty

qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements

Domain of validity

national scale; not for member state or asset-level use

Reproducibility

strength table and sources published in this edition

A.3The baseline evidence cut

Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Model runs begin with the first Foundry cut in Q1 2027.

Cut ID

NQ-EU-2026-Q0-1

Type

baseline documentary cut

Resolution policy

pinned · as of 30 September 2026

Sources pinned

49 cited sources, each at the edition and retrieval date in the references

Model runs

none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method

Digest

computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record

Supersedes

nothing, first cut of the series

Superseded by

NQ-EU-2027-Q1-1 at the Q1 2027 close

Lineage

1. 01

   source edition

2. 02

   pinned citation

3. 03

   finding

4. 04

   page

5. 05

   publication record

A.4Evidence age and coverage

A 2026 edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.

A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources

Evidence cards to follow in Q1 2027

• Trends and projections² (projection scenarios)
• Eurostat renewables⁷ (target accounting)
• JRC fire monitoring²² (counting rules)
• EIOPA dashboard²⁵ (insured-share definitions)

A.6Publication acceptance record

Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.

A.7Status words

A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected

Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.

A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).

Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.

A.9Glossary and abbreviations

A.10Technical annex

A.1 · indicator definition, net greenhouse-gas emissions, target basis

Construct

annual emissions minus removals, as defined for the 2030 target

Unit

percent change against 1990

Scope

EU territory plus a share of international aviation and navigation

Source

EEA Trends and projections²; Climate Law⁵

Revision

revised with each annual inventory submission

Known limits

the inventory shows 40% domestic against 37% on the target basis in 2024¹²

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1European Environment Agency (ed.), Annual European Union greenhouse gas inventory 1990 to 2024 and inventory document 2026, EEA Report 04/2026. EEA, Copenhagen, 17 April 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
2. 23European Environment Agency (ed.), “Economic losses from weather- and climate-related extremes in Europe.” Indicator, EEA, Copenhagen, 14 October 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
3. 2European Environment Agency (ed.), Trends and projections in Europe 2025, EEA Report 08/2025. EEA, Copenhagen, 6 November 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
4. 7Eurostat (ed.), “25.2% of energy EU used in 2024 came from renewables.” News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 18 December 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
5. 22Joint Research Centre (ed.), “2025 was the EU’s most destructive wildfire season on record.” News, European Commission, Ispra, 31 March 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
6. 25European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (ed.), Dashboard on insurance protection gap for natural catastrophes. EIOPA, Frankfurt, 2023.back
7. 5European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2021/1119 establishing the framework for achieving climate neutrality (European Climate Law). Official Journal of the European Union, 2021.back

B.1The indicator set

B.2National source register

The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.

Domains bound by the register

• WAT
• ENE
• FOO
• HLT
• BIO
• CLI
• INF
• FIN
• TRD
• MIN

B.3Regional reading, European Union by member state

Map plates for every member state follow in Q2 2027, when boundary sources and public-safe resolutions are bound. This page gives the regional reading in table form.

Population, 1 January 2026¹³

B.4Atlas card, Southern Europe in summer

• member state group
• Mediterranean
• heat and fire
• water scarcity

Systems in view

water, health, forests and protected sites, farming

Defining events

heat deaths in summer 2024¹⁷; record burnt area in 2025²²

Couplings

CLI → HLT; CLI → BIO; CLI → WAT

Capability evidence

EFFIS monitoring and the civil protection mechanism²²⁴¹

Gaps

drought extent; hospital surge capacity; irrigation demand

Agenda items

A-01 · A-04

B.5European Union system card

The card through which the European Union appears in the Europe regional edition and the global series. It summarises; it does not rank.

Context

Archetype

union of 27 member states with a shared market, energy system and basins

Population

452.0 million (1 January 2026)¹³

Trade

imports cover 57% of energy needs⁸

Hazard

losses of EUR 822 billion, 1980 to 2024²³

B.6Licences

B.7Formats and provenance

Provenance

Edition pack

The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built

Evidence cut

NQ-EU-2026-Q0-1, closed 30 September 2026

Reproducibility

sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters

Self-check

14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release

Review

five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)

Publisher of record

GCRI for the Nexus Consortium

Corrections

Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1European Environment Agency (ed.), Annual European Union greenhouse gas inventory 1990 to 2024 and inventory document 2026, EEA Report 04/2026. EEA, Copenhagen, 17 April 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
2. 2European Environment Agency (ed.), Trends and projections in Europe 2025, EEA Report 08/2025. EEA, Copenhagen, 6 November 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
3. 7Eurostat (ed.), “25.2% of energy EU used in 2024 came from renewables.” News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 18 December 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
4. 8Eurostat (ed.), “Energy in Europe: imports dependency.” News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 18 March 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
5. 9European Commission, DG Energy (ed.), REPowerEU roadmap: ending dependence on Russian energy. European Commission, Brussels, page read 2026-11-03.back
6. 13Eurostat (ed.), “EU population continued to grow in 2025.” News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 10 July 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
7. 14Eurostat (ed.), Demography of Europe, 2026 edition. Interactive publication, Eurostat, Luxembourg, May 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
8. 17T. Janoš, M. Quijal-Zamorano, N. Shartova et al., “Heat-related mortality in Europe during 2024 and health emergency forecasting to reduce preventable deaths,” Nature Medicine, September 2025. doi:10.1038/s41591-025-03954-7. doi:10.1038/s41591-025-03954-7back
9. 19European Environment Agency (ed.), “Water scarcity conditions in Europe (Water exploitation index plus).” Indicator, EEA, Copenhagen, 28 November 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
10. 22Joint Research Centre (ed.), “2025 was the EU’s most destructive wildfire season on record.” News, European Commission, Ispra, 31 March 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
11. 23European Environment Agency (ed.), “Economic losses from weather- and climate-related extremes in Europe.” Indicator, EEA, Copenhagen, 14 October 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
12. 27European Environment Agency (ed.), “Protected areas,” in Europe’s environment 2025: biodiversity and ecosystems. EEA, Copenhagen, 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
13. 30Eurostat (ed.), “EU farms: 5.3 million fewer in 2020 than in 2005.” News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 3 April 2023, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
14. 31Eurostat (ed.), Regions in Europe, 2025 edition. Interactive publication, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
15. 33European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ed.), Seasonal surveillance of chikungunya virus disease in the EU/EEA, 2025, data submitted to 31 December 2025. ECDC, Stockholm, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
16. 10European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2026/261 on the phase-out of Russian natural gas imports. Official Journal of the European Union, 2 February 2026.back
17. 15Copernicus Climate Change Service and World Meteorological Organization (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025. ECMWF, Bonn, 29 April 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
18. 16Copernicus Climate Change Service and World Meteorological Organization (eds.), European State of the Climate 2024. ECMWF, Bonn, 15 April 2025.back
19. 34European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ed.), Seasonal surveillance of dengue in the EU/EEA, 2025, data submitted to 19 November 2025. ECDC, Stockholm, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
20. 24European Environment Agency (ed.), European Climate Risk Assessment, EEA Report 01/2024. EEA, Copenhagen, March 2024.back
21. 41European Parliament and Council (eds.), Decision No 1313/2013/EU on a Union Civil Protection Mechanism, as amended. Official Journal of the European Union, 2013.back

C.149 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

1. 1European Environment Agency (ed.), Annual European Union greenhouse gas inventory 1990 to 2024 and inventory document 2026, EEA Report 04/2026. EEA, Copenhagen, 17 April 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
2. 2European Environment Agency (ed.), Trends and projections in Europe 2025, EEA Report 08/2025. EEA, Copenhagen, 6 November 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6
3. 3European Commission, DG Climate Action (ed.), EU Climate Action Progress Report 2025: Strengthening competitiveness on the road to climate neutrality. European Commission, Brussels, 2025; progress page updated 7 January 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.
4. 4European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2026/667 amending Regulation (EU) 2021/1119 (2040 target). Official Journal of the European Union, 18 March 2026. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
5. 5European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2021/1119 establishing the framework for achieving climate neutrality (European Climate Law). Official Journal of the European Union, 2021. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6
6. 6Council of the European Union (ed.), Updated nationally determined contribution of the European Union with a 2035 range of 66.25% to 72.5% net reduction against 1990. Submission to the UNFCCC, November 2025. Cited in chapter 6
7. 7Eurostat (ed.), “25.2% of energy EU used in 2024 came from renewables.” News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 18 December 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
8. 8Eurostat (ed.), “Energy in Europe: imports dependency.” News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 18 March 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
9. 9European Commission, DG Energy (ed.), REPowerEU roadmap: ending dependence on Russian energy. European Commission, Brussels, page read 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 7, chapter 8
10. 10European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2026/261 on the phase-out of Russian natural gas imports. Official Journal of the European Union, 2 February 2026. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
11. 11European Parliament and Council (eds.), Directive (EU) 2023/2413 amending the Renewable Energy Directive (RED III). Official Journal of the European Union, 2023. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6
12. 12European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2022/1032 on gas storage. Official Journal of the European Union, 2022. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
13. 13Eurostat (ed.), “EU population continued to grow in 2025.” News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 10 July 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 6
14. 14Eurostat (ed.), Demography of Europe, 2026 edition. Interactive publication, Eurostat, Luxembourg, May 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
15. 15Copernicus Climate Change Service and World Meteorological Organization (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025. ECMWF, Bonn, 29 April 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
16. 16Copernicus Climate Change Service and World Meteorological Organization (eds.), European State of the Climate 2024. ECMWF, Bonn, 15 April 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4
17. 17T. Janoš, M. Quijal-Zamorano, N. Shartova et al., “Heat-related mortality in Europe during 2024 and health emergency forecasting to reduce preventable deaths,” Nature Medicine, September 2025. doi:10.1038/s41591-025-03954-7. doi:10.1038/s41591-025-03954-7 Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
18. 18European Environment Agency (ed.), Europe’s environment 2025. EEA, Copenhagen, 29 September 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
19. 19European Environment Agency (ed.), “Water scarcity conditions in Europe (Water exploitation index plus).” Indicator, EEA, Copenhagen, 28 November 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 8
20. 20European Commission (ed.), European Water Resilience Strategy. Communication, Brussels, 4 June 2025. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
21. 21European Parliament and Council (eds.), Directive 2000/60/EC establishing a framework for Community action in the field of water policy (Water Framework Directive). Official Journal of the European Communities, 2000. Cited in chapter 8
22. 22Joint Research Centre (ed.), “2025 was the EU’s most destructive wildfire season on record.” News, European Commission, Ispra, 31 March 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
23. 23European Environment Agency (ed.), “Economic losses from weather- and climate-related extremes in Europe.” Indicator, EEA, Copenhagen, 14 October 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6
24. 24European Environment Agency (ed.), European Climate Risk Assessment, EEA Report 01/2024. EEA, Copenhagen, March 2024. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
25. 25European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (ed.), Dashboard on insurance protection gap for natural catastrophes. EIOPA, Frankfurt, 2023. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6
26. 26European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority and European Central Bank (eds.), Towards a European system for natural catastrophe risk management. Joint paper, Frankfurt, 18 December 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6
27. 27European Environment Agency (ed.), “Protected areas,” in Europe’s environment 2025: biodiversity and ecosystems. EEA, Copenhagen, 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 8
28. 28European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2024/1991 on nature restoration. Official Journal of the European Union, 2024. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
29. 29European Commission (ed.), EU Biodiversity Strategy for 2030: Bringing nature back into our lives, COM(2020) 380. Brussels, 2020. Cited in chapter 8
30. 30Eurostat (ed.), “EU farms: 5.3 million fewer in 2020 than in 2005.” News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 3 April 2023, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
31. 31Eurostat (ed.), Regions in Europe, 2025 edition. Interactive publication, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
32. 32Eurostat (ed.), “EU organic farming: 16.9 million hectares in 2022.” News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 19 June 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
33. 33European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ed.), Seasonal surveillance of chikungunya virus disease in the EU/EEA, 2025, data submitted to 31 December 2025. ECDC, Stockholm, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
34. 34European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ed.), Seasonal surveillance of dengue in the EU/EEA, 2025, data submitted to 19 November 2025. ECDC, Stockholm, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
35. 35European Parliament and Council (eds.), Directive (EU) 2022/2557 on the resilience of critical entities. Official Journal of the European Union, 2022. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
36. 36European Parliament and Council (eds.), Directive (EU) 2022/2555 on measures for a high common level of cybersecurity (NIS2). Official Journal of the European Union, 2022. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
37. 37European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2024/1252 establishing a framework for secure and sustainable supply of critical raw materials. Official Journal of the European Union, 2024. Cited in chapter 6
38. 38European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2024/1689 laying down harmonised rules on artificial intelligence. Official Journal of the European Union, 2024. Cited in chapter 6
39. 39European Commission and High Representative (eds.), EU Preparedness Union Strategy. Joint Communication, Brussels, 26 March 2025. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
40. 40European Commission (ed.), EU Stockpiling Strategy, COM(2025) 528. Brussels, 9 July 2025. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
41. 41European Parliament and Council (eds.), Decision No 1313/2013/EU on a Union Civil Protection Mechanism, as amended. Official Journal of the European Union, 2013. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4
42. 42H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. Cited in chapter 6
43. 43UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 to 2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Cited in chapter 4
44. 44Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Cited in chapter 6
45. 45UNFCCC (ed.), Paris Agreement. United Nations, Paris, 2015. Cited in chapter 6
46. 46P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054 Cited in chapter 6
47. 47J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Cited in chapter 6
48. 48S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Cited in chapter 6
49. 49S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Cited in chapter 6

C.2Publication record

Colophon

Format

A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF

Typefaces

Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)

Design standard

Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII

Accessibility

tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure

Production

Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version