Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

References and record

Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

12 min read0 figures1 table0 notesNR-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1The Union’s risk is shared across borders and unevenly insured
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Compound summer of heat, drought and fire
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
    1. C.1 49 sources
    2. C.2 Publication record
    3. C.3 Corrections log
    4. C.4 Open record
    5. C.5 Where this edition sits among the six pillars
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

C.149 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

  1. 1European Environment Agency (ed.), Annual European Union greenhouse gas inventory 1990 to 2024 and inventory document 2026, EEA Report 04/2026. EEA, Copenhagen, 17 April 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
  2. 2European Environment Agency (ed.), Trends and projections in Europe 2025, EEA Report 08/2025. EEA, Copenhagen, 6 November 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6
  3. 3European Commission, DG Climate Action (ed.), EU Climate Action Progress Report 2025: Strengthening competitiveness on the road to climate neutrality. European Commission, Brussels, 2025; progress page updated 7 January 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.
  4. 4European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2026/667 amending Regulation (EU) 2021/1119 (2040 target). Official Journal of the European Union, 18 March 2026. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  5. 5European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2021/1119 establishing the framework for achieving climate neutrality (European Climate Law). Official Journal of the European Union, 2021. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6
  6. 6Council of the European Union (ed.), Updated nationally determined contribution of the European Union with a 2035 range of 66.25% to 72.5% net reduction against 1990. Submission to the UNFCCC, November 2025. Cited in chapter 6
  7. 7Eurostat (ed.), “25.2% of energy EU used in 2024 came from renewables.” News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 18 December 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  8. 8Eurostat (ed.), “Energy in Europe: imports dependency.” News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 18 March 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  9. 9European Commission, DG Energy (ed.), REPowerEU roadmap: ending dependence on Russian energy. European Commission, Brussels, page read 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 7, chapter 8
  10. 10European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2026/261 on the phase-out of Russian natural gas imports. Official Journal of the European Union, 2 February 2026. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
  11. 11European Parliament and Council (eds.), Directive (EU) 2023/2413 amending the Renewable Energy Directive (RED III). Official Journal of the European Union, 2023. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6
  12. 12European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2022/1032 on gas storage. Official Journal of the European Union, 2022. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  13. 13Eurostat (ed.), “EU population continued to grow in 2025.” News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 10 July 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 6
  14. 14Eurostat (ed.), Demography of Europe, 2026 edition. Interactive publication, Eurostat, Luxembourg, May 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  15. 15Copernicus Climate Change Service and World Meteorological Organization (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025. ECMWF, Bonn, 29 April 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  16. 16Copernicus Climate Change Service and World Meteorological Organization (eds.), European State of the Climate 2024. ECMWF, Bonn, 15 April 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4
  17. 17T. Janoš, M. Quijal-Zamorano, N. Shartova et al., “Heat-related mortality in Europe during 2024 and health emergency forecasting to reduce preventable deaths,” Nature Medicine, September 2025. doi:10.1038/s41591-025-03954-7. doi:10.1038/s41591-025-03954-7 Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
  18. 18European Environment Agency (ed.), Europe’s environment 2025. EEA, Copenhagen, 29 September 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  19. 19European Environment Agency (ed.), “Water scarcity conditions in Europe (Water exploitation index plus).” Indicator, EEA, Copenhagen, 28 November 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 8
  20. 20European Commission (ed.), European Water Resilience Strategy. Communication, Brussels, 4 June 2025. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  21. 21European Parliament and Council (eds.), Directive 2000/60/EC establishing a framework for Community action in the field of water policy (Water Framework Directive). Official Journal of the European Communities, 2000. Cited in chapter 8
  22. 22Joint Research Centre (ed.), “2025 was the EU’s most destructive wildfire season on record.” News, European Commission, Ispra, 31 March 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  23. 23European Environment Agency (ed.), “Economic losses from weather- and climate-related extremes in Europe.” Indicator, EEA, Copenhagen, 14 October 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6
  24. 24European Environment Agency (ed.), European Climate Risk Assessment, EEA Report 01/2024. EEA, Copenhagen, March 2024. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  25. 25European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (ed.), Dashboard on insurance protection gap for natural catastrophes. EIOPA, Frankfurt, 2023. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6
  26. 26European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority and European Central Bank (eds.), Towards a European system for natural catastrophe risk management. Joint paper, Frankfurt, 18 December 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6
  27. 27European Environment Agency (ed.), “Protected areas,” in Europe’s environment 2025: biodiversity and ecosystems. EEA, Copenhagen, 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 8
  28. 28European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2024/1991 on nature restoration. Official Journal of the European Union, 2024. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  29. 29European Commission (ed.), EU Biodiversity Strategy for 2030: Bringing nature back into our lives, COM(2020) 380. Brussels, 2020. Cited in chapter 8
  30. 30Eurostat (ed.), “EU farms: 5.3 million fewer in 2020 than in 2005.” News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 3 April 2023, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  31. 31Eurostat (ed.), Regions in Europe, 2025 edition. Interactive publication, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  32. 32Eurostat (ed.), “EU organic farming: 16.9 million hectares in 2022.” News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 19 June 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
  33. 33European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ed.), Seasonal surveillance of chikungunya virus disease in the EU/EEA, 2025, data submitted to 31 December 2025. ECDC, Stockholm, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  34. 34European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ed.), Seasonal surveillance of dengue in the EU/EEA, 2025, data submitted to 19 November 2025. ECDC, Stockholm, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  35. 35European Parliament and Council (eds.), Directive (EU) 2022/2557 on the resilience of critical entities. Official Journal of the European Union, 2022. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  36. 36European Parliament and Council (eds.), Directive (EU) 2022/2555 on measures for a high common level of cybersecurity (NIS2). Official Journal of the European Union, 2022. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  37. 37European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2024/1252 establishing a framework for secure and sustainable supply of critical raw materials. Official Journal of the European Union, 2024. Cited in chapter 6
  38. 38European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2024/1689 laying down harmonised rules on artificial intelligence. Official Journal of the European Union, 2024. Cited in chapter 6
  39. 39European Commission and High Representative (eds.), EU Preparedness Union Strategy. Joint Communication, Brussels, 26 March 2025. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  40. 40European Commission (ed.), EU Stockpiling Strategy, COM(2025) 528. Brussels, 9 July 2025. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  41. 41European Parliament and Council (eds.), Decision No 1313/2013/EU on a Union Civil Protection Mechanism, as amended. Official Journal of the European Union, 2013. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4
  42. 42H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. Cited in chapter 6
  43. 43UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 to 2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Cited in chapter 4
  44. 44Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Cited in chapter 6
  45. 45UNFCCC (ed.), Paris Agreement. United Nations, Paris, 2015. Cited in chapter 6
  46. 46P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054 Cited in chapter 6
  47. 47J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Cited in chapter 6
  48. 48S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Cited in chapter 6
  49. 49S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Cited in chapter 6

C.2Publication record

Publication

Title
European Union Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition
Series
Reports · Edition 2026–2030
Edition
Baseline Edition 2026 · inaugural annual
Version
v1.0.0 · draft for stewardship review
Publication ID
NR-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Evidence close
30 September 2026
Publication date
October 2026
DOI
concept and version DOI at deposit

Publisher

Publisher of record
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium
Place
Toronto
Editor
Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor
Stewards
GCRI · technical truth · the Global Risks Forum (GRF) · public meaning · the Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · capital meaning
Licence
text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source
Copyright
© 2026 GCRI · Nexus Consortium
Language
English (en-GB) source edition
Correspondence
Registry correction pathway · editorial office

Colophon

Format
A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF
Typefaces
Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)
Design standard
Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII
Accessibility
tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure
Production
Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version

Table C.1Release path for this version
StepWhat happensWhen
Drafteditorial self-check complete at evidence closeOctober 2026
Steward reviewfive passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N)Q4 2026
Approvalpublication authority approves the exact digestbefore release
Depositconcept and version DOI minted; registry pointer setat release
Successionthe Q1 2027 edition reports changes against this baselineQ1 2027
Current version
v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review
Previous edition
none, first edition of the series
Next edition
NR-COUNTRY-EU-2027-Q1-v1.0.0
Latest version
resolve the concept DOI or the registry record
Correction route
Registry correction pathway
Notice types
erratum · addendum · supersession · withdrawal

C.3Corrections log

0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition’s current version.

EditionVersionDateStateChangeNotice
EUNR-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026DraftBaseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,None

Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.

C.4Open record

This edition’s open record

Publication ID
NR-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Desk identifier and series alias
NR-NAT-EU-2026-BL
Collection
None
DOI
Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata
Versions
Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest
Bundle
RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest
Licence
CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0

Credit and identity

ORCID
Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record
ROR
Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone
CRediT
Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing
Account
None needed to contribute; never a password

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C.5Where this edition sits among the six pillars

Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.

  1. F03 Sealed observations and indicator series Foundry Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
  2. F04 After-action and scenario findings for Universe After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
  3. F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter Foundry National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
  4. Applied in editions Standards Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
  5. EU edition Reports European Union 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.
  6. F06 Method and correction findings as change Standards Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
  7. F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year Universe Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
  8. Taught in the open Academy Risk Academy: taught in the open.

What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; EU is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.

HandoffBetweenWhat crosses, and when
F03Foundry to ReportsSealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04Universe to ReportsAfter-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05Foundry to ReportsNational Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
RingNexus Standards to ReportsNexus Standards: applied in editions.
F06Reports to Nexus StandardsMethod and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12Reports to UniverseQ4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
RingReports to Risk AcademyRisk Academy: taught in the open.

Cite this annex

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Annex C: References and record. In European Union Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of the European Union’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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