Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Key findings

Twelve findings carry the health baseline. They are grouped by coupling and never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.

6 min read1 figure0 tables23 notesNR-SECTOR-HEALTH-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Health is where the systems meet
  4. 2Key findings
    1. 2.1 Headline finding
    2. 2.2 Health
    3. 2.3 Biodiversity
    4. 2.4 Governance
    5. 2.5 Finance
    6. 2.6 Climate forcing
    7. 2.7 Systemic
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Outbreak, funding gap and heat season in fragile health systems
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 5NRF-SECTOR-HEALTH-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-HLT-001

In 2023, 4.6 billion people were not fully covered by essential health services, and in 2022, 2.1 billion people faced financial hardship from health costs.

Figure 2.1People left behind on the path to UHC (million)
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Not fully covered by essential health services, 20234,600
Faced financial hardship from health costs, 20222,100

Source: WHO universal health coverage fact sheet2. The measures count different things and overlap.

Implication

The service coverage index rose from 54 to 71 between 2000 and 2023, but the pace after 2015 fell to one third of the earlier rate. Infectious disease control drove 52% of the gain, while care for noncommunicable diseases lags at 61 index points2. At the current trajectory the index reaches 74 and 24% of people still face financial hardship in 20302. The poorest bear the most: out-of-pocket spending is 17.3% of current health spending worldwide42.

What would move it

The next UHC monitoring report, the effect of aid reductions on service coverage and the share of households with financial hardship would each move this finding.

2.2Health

  1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-SECTOR-HEALTH-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-HLT-001

    In 2023, 4.6 billion people were not fully covered by essential health services, and in 2022, 2.1 billion people faced financial hardship from health costs; progress slowed after 2015.23

  2. ReportedEQL 5NRF-SECTOR-HEALTH-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-HLT-002

    An estimated 4.9 million children under five died in 2024, 2.3 million of them in the first 28 days of life, and the number has stagnated since 2022.153

  3. ReportedEQL 5NRF-SECTOR-HEALTH-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-HLT-003

    Tuberculosis killed 1.23 million people in 2024, malaria an estimated 610 000 in 2024 and HIV 570 000 in 2025.4567

  4. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-HEALTH-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-HLT-004

    In 2025, 13.5 million children received no vaccine and first-dose measles coverage stood at 84%, below the 86% of 2019.893

  5. ReportedEQL 5NRF-SECTOR-HEALTH-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-HLT-005

    Noncommunicable diseases killed at least 43 million people in 2021, 75% of non-pandemic deaths, and 18 million of them died before age 70.13

  6. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-HEALTH-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-HLT-006

    Bacterial antimicrobial resistance was associated with 4.71 million deaths in 2021, 1.14 million of them attributable to it, and one in six laboratory-confirmed infections was resistant in 2023.121110

2.3Biodiversity

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-HEALTH-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-BIO-007

    More than 60% of emerging infectious diseases reported globally come from animals, wild and domestic.1718

2.4Governance

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-HEALTH-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-008

    A Bundibugyo virus disease outbreak declared in May 2026 reached 7 890 confirmed cases and 3 799 deaths in the Democratic Republic of the Congo by 23 September 2026, and WHO describes it as a public health emergency of international concern.5625

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-HEALTH-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-009

    The amended International Health Regulations entered into force on 19 September 2025, and the Pandemic Agreement, adopted on 20 May 2025, awaits the access and benefit-sharing annex before it can be opened for signature.2123

2.5Finance

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-HEALTH-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-010

    Development assistance for health fell from USD 80.3 billion in 2021 to USD 49.6 billion in 2024 and is estimated at USD 38.4 billion in 2025.403

2.6Climate forcing

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-SECTOR-HEALTH-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-011

    Heat was linked to an average of about 546 000 deaths a year in the 2025 Lancet Countdown, against about 489 000 a year in 2000 to 2019 in WHO’s earlier estimate; the periods and methods differ.5528

2.7Systemic

  1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-SECTOR-HEALTH-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

    The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is an outbreak that coincides with a funding gap and a heat season in the same fragile health systems. § scenario

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 2WHO (ed.), Universal health coverage (UHC), fact sheet (5 December 2025). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2023 (service coverage) and 2022 (financial hardship). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 42DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, data service queried for current health expenditure (percentage of GDP), out-of-pocket expenditure and physicians per 1 000 people, world aggregate (database updated 2026-10-08). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2023 (spending) and 2022 (physicians). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 3UN DESA Statistics Division (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2026, Goal 3 storyline, Good health and well-being. United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 15WHO (ed.), Child mortality (under 5 years), fact sheet (1 May 2026). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 4WHO (ed.), Tuberculosis, fact sheet (24 March 2026). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 5WHO (ed.), Malaria, fact sheet (4 December 2025). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 6WHO (ed.), HIV and AIDS, fact sheet (27 July 2026). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 7UNAIDS (ed.), Global HIV and AIDS statistics, fact sheet (2026 data release of 27 July 2026). Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 8WHO (ed.), Immunisation coverage, fact sheet (15 July 2026; estimates with UNICEF). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 9WHO (ed.), Measles, fact sheet (15 July 2026). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024 (deaths) and 2025 (coverage). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 13WHO (ed.), Noncommunicable diseases, fact sheet (25 September 2025). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 12Naghavi, M. et al. (GBD 2021 Antimicrobial Resistance Collaborators), Global burden of bacterial antimicrobial resistance 1990 to 2021: a systematic analysis with forecasts to 2050, The Lancet 404 (10459), September 2024; abstract read through Europe PMC. Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation and partners. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 11WHO (ed.), WHO warns of widespread resistance to common antibiotics worldwide, news release on the Global antibiotic resistance surveillance report 2025 (13 October 2025). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 10WHO (ed.), Antimicrobial resistance, fact sheet (16 July 2026). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2023 (resistance) and 2022 (antibiotic use). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 17WHO (ed.), One Health, fact sheet (8 May 2026). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026 (current text; the share of emerging infections is undated in the sheet). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 18WHO (ed.), Zoonoses, fact sheet (29 July 2020). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 56WHO (ed.), Disease Outbreak News: Ebola disease caused by Bundibugyo virus, Democratic Republic of the Congo (25 September 2026, data to 23 September 2026). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 25WHO (ed.), Disease Outbreak News: Ebola disease caused by Bundibugyo virus, Democratic Republic of the Congo (28 August 2026, data to 26 August 2026). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  19. 21WHO (ed.), World Health Assembly adopts historic Pandemic Agreement, news release (20 May 2025). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  20. 23WHO (ed.), International Health Regulations: amendments, questions and answers (1 October 2024). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  21. 40Apeagyei, A.E. et al., Tracking development assistance for health, 1990 to 2030: historical trends, recent cuts, and outlook, The Lancet, 2025; abstract read through Europe PMC. Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle. Observation year 2025 (estimate). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  22. 55WHO (ed.), Climate inaction is claiming millions of lives every year, warns new Lancet Countdown report, news release on the 2025 Lancet Countdown on health and climate change (29 October 2025; the report itself was not opened). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025 (average of about 546 000 heat-related deaths a year; the averaging period is not stated in the release). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  23. 28WHO (ed.), Climate change, heat and health, fact sheet (31 July 2026). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2019 (average of 2000 to 2019) and 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 2: Key findings. In Global Health Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Health and One Health System. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-HEALTH-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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The sectors behind Global Health and One Health.

A reading aid: the sectors the findings run through and how strongly they depend on each other.

Select corners · hover lines6 / 15 relations

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Health and its partners

Health gives workforce for operations to infrastructure (0.3), farm labour to food (0.3) and utility workforce to water (0.2).

W · E · I · F · H · B

Sectors
4 of 6
Relations
6 of 15
Coupling
0.42 share of total

Strongest relations in play

  • Water → Food · irrigation0.8
  • Food → Health · nutrition0.7
  • Infrastructure → Water · pipes, dams and treatment works0.6
  • Water → Health · drinking water and sanitation0.7
Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen.
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