Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

References and record

Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

15 min read0 figures1 table0 notesNR-SECTOR-HEALTH-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Health is where the systems meet
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Outbreak, funding gap and heat season in fragile health systems
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
    1. C.1 56 sources
    2. C.2 Publication record
    3. C.3 Corrections log
    4. C.4 Open record
    5. C.5 Where this edition sits among the six pillars
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

C.156 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

  1. 1WHO (ed.), World Health Statistics 2026: A visual summary and report page (monitoring health for the SDGs, 13 May 2026). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2023 (deaths and life expectancy). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  2. 2WHO (ed.), Universal health coverage (UHC), fact sheet (5 December 2025). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2023 (service coverage) and 2022 (financial hardship). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  3. 3UN DESA Statistics Division (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2026, Goal 3 storyline, Good health and well-being. United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7
  4. 4WHO (ed.), Tuberculosis, fact sheet (24 March 2026). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2
  5. 5WHO (ed.), Malaria, fact sheet (4 December 2025). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2
  6. 6WHO (ed.), HIV and AIDS, fact sheet (27 July 2026). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2
  7. 7UNAIDS (ed.), Global HIV and AIDS statistics, fact sheet (2026 data release of 27 July 2026). Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6
  8. 8WHO (ed.), Immunisation coverage, fact sheet (15 July 2026; estimates with UNICEF). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6
  9. 9WHO (ed.), Measles, fact sheet (15 July 2026). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024 (deaths) and 2025 (coverage). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4
  10. 10WHO (ed.), Antimicrobial resistance, fact sheet (16 July 2026). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2023 (resistance) and 2022 (antibiotic use). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  11. 11WHO (ed.), WHO warns of widespread resistance to common antibiotics worldwide, news release on the Global antibiotic resistance surveillance report 2025 (13 October 2025). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  12. 12Naghavi, M. et al. (GBD 2021 Antimicrobial Resistance Collaborators), Global burden of bacterial antimicrobial resistance 1990 to 2021: a systematic analysis with forecasts to 2050, The Lancet 404 (10459), September 2024; abstract read through Europe PMC. Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation and partners. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  13. 13WHO (ed.), Noncommunicable diseases, fact sheet (25 September 2025). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3
  14. 14WHO (ed.), Mental disorders, fact sheet (11 September 2026). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3
  15. 15WHO (ed.), Child mortality (under 5 years), fact sheet (1 May 2026). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
  16. 16WHO (ed.), Maternal mortality, fact sheet (7 April 2025). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3
  17. 17WHO (ed.), One Health, fact sheet (8 May 2026). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026 (current text; the share of emerging infections is undated in the sheet). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  18. 18WHO (ed.), Zoonoses, fact sheet (29 July 2020). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 8
  19. 19FAO, UNEP, WOAH and WHO (eds.), One Health Joint Plan of Action (2022 to 2026): working together for the health of humans, animals, plants and the environment, publication page (14 October 2022). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  20. 20FAO, WOAH, UNEP and WHO (eds.), Tripartite and UNEP support the One Health High Level Expert Panel’s definition of One Health, joint statement (1 December 2021). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  21. 21WHO (ed.), World Health Assembly adopts historic Pandemic Agreement, news release (20 May 2025). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  22. 22POST-CLOSE, context only: WHO (ed.), WHO welcomes adoption of United Nations political declaration on pandemic prevention, preparedness and response, news release (12 October 2026; released after the 30 September evidence close and cited as the position at access). World Health Organization, Geneva and New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  23. 23WHO (ed.), International Health Regulations: amendments, questions and answers (1 October 2024). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  24. 24POST-CLOSE, context only: WHO (ed.), Disease Outbreak News: Ebola disease caused by Bundibugyo virus, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Kenya and Nigeria (23 October 2026, data to 20 October 2026; released after the 30 September evidence close and cited as the position at access). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4
  25. 25WHO (ed.), Disease Outbreak News: Ebola disease caused by Bundibugyo virus, Democratic Republic of the Congo (28 August 2026, data to 26 August 2026). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  26. 26WHO (ed.), Household air pollution and health, fact sheet (16 December 2025). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 8
  27. 27WHO (ed.), Ambient (outdoor) air pollution, fact sheet (24 October 2024). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
  28. 28WHO (ed.), Climate change, heat and health, fact sheet (31 July 2026). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2019 (average of 2000 to 2019) and 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
  29. 29POST-CLOSE, context only: WHO (ed.), Climate change is a growing health emergency, Lancet Countdown warns, departmental update summarising the 2026 Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change (28 October 2026; the report itself was not opened; released after the 30 September evidence close and cited as the position at access). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 7, chapter 8
  30. 30POST-CLOSE, context only: WHO, WMO, UNICEF and UNFPA (eds.), New global framework launched to track increasing health risks of extreme heat for pregnant women, newborns and children, news release (21 October 2026; released after the 30 September evidence close and cited as the position at access). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 8
  31. 31WHO (ed.), Climate change and health, fact sheet (12 October 2023). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
  32. 32WHO (ed.), Food safety, fact sheet (4 June 2026). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 8
  33. 33FAO (ed.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026, publication page with headline figures (hunger in 2025; cost of a healthy diet). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  34. 34WHO (ed.), Cholera, fact sheet (29 September 2026). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026 (current text). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
  35. 35WHO (ed.), WHO reports latest global trends in cholera, meningitis and plague, news release (29 September 2026). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 8
  36. 36WHO (ed.), Rabies, fact sheet (17 September 2026). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026 (current text). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
  37. 37WHO (ed.), Influenza (avian and other zoonotic), fact sheet (21 January 2026). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024 (cattle outbreaks). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
  38. 38WHO (ed.), Dengue and severe dengue, fact sheet (21 August 2025). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 8
  39. 39POST-CLOSE, context only: WHO (ed.), One in four doctors nearing retirement age as WHO warns of global health workforce gap, news release on National health workforce accounts: health workforce levels and trends 2026 (19 October 2026; released after the 30 September evidence close and cited as the position at access). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6
  40. 40Apeagyei, A.E. et al., Tracking development assistance for health, 1990 to 2030: historical trends, recent cuts, and outlook, The Lancet, 2025; abstract read through Europe PMC. Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle. Observation year 2025 (estimate). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7
  41. 41Projected health workforce requirements and shortage for addressing the disease burden in the WHO Africa Region, 2022 to 2030: a needs-based modelling study, BMJ Global Health, 2024; abstract read through Europe PMC. BMJ Publishing Group, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  42. 42DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, data service queried for current health expenditure (percentage of GDP), out-of-pocket expenditure and physicians per 1 000 people, world aggregate (database updated 2026-10-08). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2023 (spending) and 2022 (physicians). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  43. 43WHO (ed.), Surveillance System for Attacks on Health Care, dashboard and method note (the dashboard data require an account and were not read). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  44. 44WHO (ed.), State of the world’s nursing report 2025, publication page (12 May 2025; no figure used). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  45. 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: Romanello, M. et al., The 2025 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change, The Lancet 406 (10521), December 2025; the bibliographic record was read, the full text was blocked and no figure from it is used. Lancet Countdown, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  46. 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: WHO (ed.), Global Tuberculosis Report 2025. World Health Organization, Geneva; cited for the tables behind the opened fact sheet [4], with no figure taken from it. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  47. 47UNVERIFIED, not opened: WHO (ed.), World Malaria Report 2025. World Health Organization, Geneva; cited for the tables behind the opened fact sheet [5], with no figure taken from it. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  48. 48UNVERIFIED, not opened: WOAH (ed.), Annual report on antimicrobial agents intended for use in animals (ANIMUSE); the report page returned an access error and no figure is used. World Organisation for Animal Health, Paris. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  49. 49UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNEP and ILRI (eds.), Preventing the next pandemic: zoonotic diseases and how to break the chain of transmission, 2020; the page returned an access error and no figure is used. United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  50. 50UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPBES (ed.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health (Nexus Assessment), 2024; the page returned no readable text and no figure is used. Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  51. 51UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations General Assembly, Political declaration of the high-level meeting on antimicrobial resistance, September 2024; the target of a 10% cut in resistance deaths by 2030 is taken from the opened fact sheet [10]. United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  52. 52UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 35001:2019, Biorisk management for laboratories and other related organisations, cited from memory with no figure. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  53. 53UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 15189:2022, Medical laboratories: requirements for quality and competence, cited from memory with no figure. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  54. 54UNVERIFIED, not opened: WOAH (ed.), Terrestrial Animal Health Code, current edition, cited from memory with no figure. World Organisation for Animal Health, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  55. 55WHO (ed.), Climate inaction is claiming millions of lives every year, warns new Lancet Countdown report, news release on the 2025 Lancet Countdown on health and climate change (29 October 2025; the report itself was not opened). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025 (average of about 546 000 heat-related deaths a year; the averaging period is not stated in the release). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  56. 56WHO (ed.), Disease Outbreak News: Ebola disease caused by Bundibugyo virus, Democratic Republic of the Congo (25 September 2026, data to 23 September 2026). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8

C.2Publication record

Publication

Title
Global Health Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition
Series
Reports · Global Sector Series GS-04
Edition
Baseline Edition 2026 · inaugural annual
Version
v1.0.0 · draft for stewardship review
Publication ID
NR-SECTOR-HEALTH-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Evidence close
30 September 2026
Publication date
October 2026
DOI
concept and version DOI at deposit

Publisher

Publisher of record
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium
Place
Toronto
Editor
Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor
Stewards
GCRI · technical truth · the Global Risks Forum (GRF) · public meaning · the Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · capital meaning
Licence
text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source
Copyright
© 2026 GCRI · Nexus Consortium
Language
English (en-GB) source edition
Correspondence
Registry correction pathway · editorial office

Colophon

Format
A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF
Typefaces
Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)
Design standard
Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII
Accessibility
tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure
Production
Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version

Table C.1Release path for this version
StepWhat happensWhen
Drafteditorial self-check complete at evidence closeOctober 2026
Steward reviewfive passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N)Q4 2026
Approvalpublication authority approves the exact digestbefore release
Depositconcept and version DOI minted; registry pointer setat release
Successionthe 2027 health edition reports changes against this baseline2027
Current version
v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review
Previous edition
none, first edition of the series
Next edition
NR-SECTOR-HEALTH-GLOBAL-2027-v1.0.0
Latest version
resolve the concept DOI or the registry record
Correction route
Registry correction pathway
Notice types
erratum · addendum · supersession · withdrawal

C.3Corrections log

0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition’s current version.

EditionVersionDateStateChangeNotice
GS-04NR-SECTOR-HEALTH-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026DraftBaseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,None

Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.

C.4Open record

This edition’s open record

Publication ID
NR-SECTOR-HEALTH-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Desk identifier and series alias
NR-SEC-GS-04-2026-BL
Collection
None
DOI
Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata
Versions
Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest
Bundle
RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest
Licence
CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0

Credit and identity

ORCID
Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record
ROR
Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone
CRediT
Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing
Account
None needed to contribute; never a password

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C.5Where this edition sits among the six pillars

Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.

  1. F03 Sealed observations and indicator series Foundry Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
  2. F04 After-action and scenario findings for Universe After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
  3. F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter Foundry National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
  4. Applied in editions Standards Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
  5. GS-04 edition Reports Global Health and One Health 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.
  6. F06 Method and correction findings as change Standards Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
  7. F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year Universe Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
  8. Taught in the open Academy Risk Academy: taught in the open.

What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; GS-04 is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.

HandoffBetweenWhat crosses, and when
F03Foundry to ReportsSealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04Universe to ReportsAfter-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05Foundry to ReportsNational Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
RingNexus Standards to ReportsNexus Standards: applied in editions.
F06Reports to Nexus StandardsMethod and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12Reports to UniverseQ4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
RingReports to Risk AcademyRisk Academy: taught in the open.

Cite this annex

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Annex C: References and record. In Global Health Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Health and One Health System. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-HEALTH-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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Sector signature

The sectors behind Global Health and One Health.

A reading aid: the sectors the findings run through and how strongly they depend on each other.

Select corners · hover lines6 / 15 relations

Signature

Health and its partners

Health gives workforce for operations to infrastructure (0.3), farm labour to food (0.3) and utility workforce to water (0.2).

W · E · I · F · H · B

Sectors
4 of 6
Relations
6 of 15
Coupling
0.42 share of total

Strongest relations in play

  • Water → Food · irrigation0.8
  • Food → Health · nutrition0.7
  • Infrastructure → Water · pipes, dams and treatment works0.6
  • Water → Health · drinking water and sanitation0.7
Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen.
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