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Outbreak, funding gap and heat season in fragile health systems

A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

2 min read0 figures0 tables2 notesNR-SECTOR-HEALTH-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Health is where the systems meet
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Outbreak, funding gap and heat season in fragile health systems
    1. 5.1 Assumptions
    2. 5.2 The cascade, step by step
    3. 5.3 The scenario as a table of steps
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-GS04-OUT-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline
the 2026 reference state in this edition
Drivers
a zoonotic outbreak with cross-border spread that coincides with reduced external funding and a heat season with high demand on clinics
Analogues
the 2026 Bundibugyo outbreak; the 2025 aid reductions5640
Interventions
none modelled: the specification describes the unmitigated case
Run state
narrative specification; quantified run scheduled for 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

  1. 1

    BIO → HLT

    spillover starts an outbreak; detection is late and deaths occur in communities

    2026

  2. 2

    FIN → HLT

    external funding gaps limit surveillance, supplies and staff

    2025

  3. 3

    CLI → HLT

    heat raises demand for care and strains facilities

    2023

  4. 4

    HLT → FOO

    illness and movement limits reduce labour and market access

    analogue

  5. 5

    TRD → HLT

    travel and trade measures conflict with health advice

    2026

  6. 6

    HLT → FIN

    response costs and lost output strain public budgets

    analogue

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-GS04-OUT-01 would travel through Global Health and One Health‘s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

StepWhat happensSource
01 Biodiversity to healthSpillover starts an outbreak; detection is late and deaths occur in communities. Analogue or source: 2026.Edition GS-04, scenario SCN-GS04-OUT-01, step 1
02 Finance to healthExternal funding gaps limit surveillance, supplies and staff. Analogue or source: 2025.Edition GS-04, scenario SCN-GS04-OUT-01, step 2
03 Climate to healthHeat raises demand for care and strains facilities. Analogue or source: 2023.Edition GS-04, scenario SCN-GS04-OUT-01, step 3
04 Health to foodIllness and movement limits reduce labour and market access. Analogue or source: analogue.Edition GS-04, scenario SCN-GS04-OUT-01, step 4
05 Trade to healthTravel and trade measures conflict with health advice. Analogue or source: 2026.Edition GS-04, scenario SCN-GS04-OUT-01, step 5
06 Health to financeResponse costs and lost output strain public budgets. Analogue or source: analogue.Edition GS-04, scenario SCN-GS04-OUT-01, step 6

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: Global Health and One Health 2026, scenario SCN-GS04-OUT-01 (2026); Global Health and One Health 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 56WHO (ed.), Disease Outbreak News: Ebola disease caused by Bundibugyo virus, Democratic Republic of the Congo (25 September 2026, data to 23 September 2026). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 40Apeagyei, A.E. et al., Tracking development assistance for health, 1990 to 2030: historical trends, recent cuts, and outlook, The Lancet, 2025; abstract read through Europe PMC. Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle. Observation year 2025 (estimate). Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 5: Outbreak, funding gap and heat season in fragile health systems. In Global Health Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Health and One Health System. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-HEALTH-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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Sector signature

The sectors behind Global Health and One Health.

A reading aid: the sectors the findings run through and how strongly they depend on each other.

Select corners · hover lines6 / 15 relations

Context

Pandemic

Workforce absence ripples from clinics into grid operations, logistics and farm labour.

W · E · I · F · H · B

Sectors
4 of 6
Relations
6 of 15
Coupling
0.41 share of total

Strongest relations in play

  • Energy → Infrastructure · power for transport and telecoms0.8
  • Food → Health · nutrition0.7
  • Infrastructure → Health · access to care0.5
  • Energy → Food · fertiliser, machinery and cold chains0.5
Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen.
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