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Baseline Edition 2026
Complete edition

Indonesia Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026

The State of Indonesia’s Interdependent Systems

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ReportsIDN

Country Systems Risk and Resilience

Indonesia 2026

The State of Indonesia’s Interdependent Systems

Baseline Edition 2026NR-COUNTRY-IDN-2026-BASELINEGCRI for the Nexus Consortium

Imprint

Editor: Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor, the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
Publisher of record: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto
Report number: NR-COUNTRY-IDN-2026-BASELINE
Evidence close: 30 September 2026, cut NQ-IDN-2026-Q0-1
Status: Draft under stewardship review; not yet released
DOI and UNI: Issued at deposit
Licence: CC BY 4.0 for Nexus-authored text, tables and figures; third-party material keeps its own licence
Cite as: Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Indonesia Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Indonesia’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-IDN-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI). https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/idn/

Contents

·
Executive summary
1
Chapter 1. Indonesia’s risk is climatic, geophysical and supply-linked at once
2
Chapter 2. Key findings
3
Chapter 3. Systems and sectors at baseline
4
Chapter 4. Risks and capability
5
Chapter 5. Flood and landslide sequence across rice-growing islands
6
Chapter 6. Readings from the other desks
7
Chapter 7. The 2027 agenda
8
Chapter 8. Systems in depth
A
Annex A. Methodology
B
Annex B. Data appendix
C
Annex C. References and record

Indonesia 2026
Executive summary

Executive summary

The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.

6 min read1 figure0 tables14 notesNR-COUNTRY-IDN-2026-BASELINE

S.1Abstract

Indonesia (Republik Indonesia) enters 2027 as an economy of 285.7 million people and about US$1.45 trillion of output in 2025, growing 5.1% that year¹³. Greenhouse-gas emissions excluding land use reached 1,323.8 Mt CO₂e in 2024, up from 1,261.3 in 2023⁴. Fossil fuels supplied 82% of electricity in 2024 and hydro 7.4%, while wind and solar supplied 0.5%⁸. Climate Action Tracker rates the overall national effort critically insufficient and puts the gap to a 1.5 °C pathway at 112% in 2030 and 141% in 2035⁹. Indonesia is a net energy exporter, yet its food system leans on trade in wheat: the FAO forecasts near-record imports of 11.5 million tonnes in 2025/26, while the 2025 paddy crop was put at 59 million tonnes¹⁰. Floods and landslides in Aceh, North Sumatra and West Sumatra at the turn of 2025 and 2026 caused crop losses¹⁰. Stunting affected 22.0% of children under five in 2023⁶. Hazard loss records, the national inventory, water supply, food balance and ministry series could not be read at evidence close and appear as designed gaps with their source and blocker. This Baseline Edition fixes the reference state for Indonesia’s water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems, maps the couplings through which rain, geophysical and supply shocks travel, and sets the questions the first operational edition will answer with Foundry evidence in Q1 2027. It decides nothing.

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the Indonesia baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

Emissions excluding land use were 1,323.8 Mt CO₂e in 2024. The inventory including land use is not bound.⁴¹⁹
Where do emissions stand?Reported
Climate Action Tracker rates the overall effort critically insufficient and reports a net zero goal for 2060.⁹
Is Indonesia on course for its climate goals?Reported
Fossil fuels supplied 82% of generation in 2024; hydro supplied 7.4%.⁸
How secure is electricity?Reported
Paddy output was 59 million tonnes in 2025, and wheat imports are forecast near a record.¹⁰
How secure is food?Reported
Stunting affected 22.0% of children under five in 2023.⁶
Is nutrition a health risk?Reported
Protected land was 12.0% in 2025; water supply series are not bound.⁵⁵⁵
What about water and nature?Reported
The IMF projects 5.0% growth and 3.0% inflation for 2026.⁷
What does the economy look like?Reported
A flood and landslide sequence across rice-growing islands that cuts roads, power and harvests together. SCN-IDN-FLD-01
What will Q1 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-IDN-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001

Greenhouse-gas emissions excluding land use were 1,323.8 Mt CO₂e in 2024, up from 1,261.3 Mt CO₂e in 2023 and 1,181.3 Mt CO₂e in 2022.

Figure S.1Emissions excluding land use (Mt CO₂e)

Item	Bar, scaled to the largest value	Value
2022		1,181.3
2023		1,261.3
2024		1,323.8

Source: World Bank WDI emissions series⁴.

Emissions rose while Climate Action Tracker puts the gap to a 1.5 °C pathway at 141% in 2035⁹. With fossil fuels supplying 82% of electricity⁸, the power system is the first system to watch. Land use and peat, which the national inventory covers, are not bound here¹⁹.

S.4At a glance

285.7million

population, 2025¹

1.45US$ trillion

GDP, 2025³

5,120US$

GNI per capita, Atlas method, 2025³

59.4%

urban population, 2025²

38provinces

administrative units¹⁴

Not bound

provincial population structure¹⁷

S.5What each steward reads in it

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports a coupled reading of Indonesia’s risk: rising emissions, an electricity mix that is 82% fossil, high wheat imports and recent flood losses on Sumatra.

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people risk arrives as a flood, a landslide or a price change.

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. The protection gap and public-asset cover are not bound, and the effort gap to a 1.5 °C pathway points to large investment in the power system.

NEXUS

Synthesis

Indonesia’s emissions, power, crop and nutrition series are readable now; water, hazard-loss, inventory and nature series are not.

S.6What this edition is, and is not

What this edition is

A baseline: the state of Indonesia’s water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems in 2026, the dependencies that connect them, the risks that travel through them and the capabilities that hold them. It sets out the questions the operational series will answer.

What it is not

Not a national risk assessment, an official warning or a rating. It decides nothing about any institution or asset. Competent authorities keep every mandate they hold, and national ownership of the series is unaffected.

What comes next

Q1 2027 opens the operational series with a sealed Foundry evidence cut. Each later edition reports what changed against this baseline, new observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), Indonesia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/IDN/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL?format=jsonback
3World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: GDP, GDP growth, GNI per capita (Atlas method), poverty headcount at national lines and agriculture value added, Indonesia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/IDN/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?format=jsonback
4World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: total greenhouse-gas emissions excluding LULUCF (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), net energy imports and access to electricity, Indonesia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/IDN/indicator/EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5?format=jsonback
8Ember (ed.), “Indonesia” country page, electricity generation mix. Ember, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://ember-energy.org/countries-and-regions/indonesia/back
9Climate Action Tracker (ed.), “Indonesia” country assessment. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute; the page lists an update dated 28 September 2026. Observation year 2024 (renewables) and 2035 (target gap). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/indonesia/back
10Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Indonesia, reference date 29 January 2026. FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025 (production) and 2025/26 (imports). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.fao.org/giews/countrybrief/country.jsp?code=IDNback
6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: prevalence of stunting, current health expenditure and population living in slums, Indonesia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023 (stunting, health expenditure) and 2022 (slums). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/IDN/indicator/SH.STA.STNT.ZS?format=jsonback
19Ministry of Environment and Forestry (ed.), national greenhouse-gas inventory system (SIGN-SMART). Ministry of Environment and Forestry, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: forest area, terrestrial protected areas and annual freshwater withdrawals, Indonesia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025 (protected areas), 2024 (forest area) and 2022 (withdrawals). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/IDN/indicator/ER.LND.PTLD.ZS?format=jsonback
55WHO and UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme (eds.), Progress on household drinking water, sanitation and hygiene 2000–2024. WHO and UNICEF, Geneva and New York, 2025. Source for a designed gap; Indonesia values not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
7International Monetary Fund (ed.), Indonesia country page: Article IV consultation of January 2026 and July 2026 World Economic Outlook Update projections. IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2026 projection. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/IDNback
2World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: population aged 65 and above, urban population, life expectancy at birth and total fertility rate, Indonesia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025 (65 and above, urban) and 2024 (life expectancy, fertility). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/IDN/indicator/SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS?format=jsonback
14Wikipedia contributors (eds.), “Indonesia.” Wikimedia Foundation. Observation year 2026. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indonesia. Used only for the count of 38 provinces; the primary source, the Ministry of Home Affairs, was not read.back
17Statistics Indonesia, BPS (ed.), national statistical releases (population, social and economic series). BPS, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; the site returned a 403 error at evidence close. Observation year none bound. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.bps.go.id/enback

Indonesia 2026
Chapter 1

Indonesia’s risk is climatic, geophysical and supply-linked at once

Part I describes systems and their couplings. It assesses no authority and ranks no province.

7 min read2 figures2 tables15 notesNR-COUNTRY-IDN-2026-BASELINE

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

Where is Indonesia’s risk concentrated, and in which systems?
Which couplings carry shocks from one system to the next?
Which capabilities hold under compound stress, and which are only documented?
What must the 2027 programme measure first?

In this part

Narrative
Headline finding
Lead figure
Five system chapters
Twelve-domain reading
Sector screens
Dependency matrix
Risk objects
Capability ladder
Scenario
Three lenses
Portfolio

1.2The argument

Indonesia is an archipelago economy of 285.7 million people, with about US$1.45 trillion of output in 2025¹³. This baseline reads its exposure as three forces acting together: a hazard regime of heavy rain, floods and landslides on top of a geophysical setting that this edition has not yet bound, a power system that still runs mostly on fossil fuel, and a food system that leans on imported wheat.

The climate-policy layer is demanding. Emissions excluding land use reached 1,323.8 Mt CO₂e in 2024, up 5.0% on 2023⁴. Climate Action Tracker rates the overall effort critically insufficient and puts the gap to a 1.5 °C pathway at 112% in 2030 and 141% in 2035⁹. Indonesia submitted a Second NDC in 2025, but the text was not read for this edition¹¹¹².

The energy layer shows the scale of the shift needed. Fossil fuels supplied 82% of electricity in 2024, hydro 7.4% and wind and solar 0.5%⁸. Indonesia is nonetheless a net energy exporter, with net energy imports of minus 92.8% of energy use in 2024⁴. Generation by fuel and grid reserves are not bound²⁰²¹.

Food security rests on domestic crops and on trade. The 2025 paddy crop was officially estimated at 59 million tonnes, and wheat imports are forecast at a near-record 11.5 million tonnes in 2025/26¹⁰. Floods and landslides in Sumatra at the turn of 2025 and 2026 caused crop losses¹⁰. Self-sufficiency ratios are not bound²².

The population layer is young and urbanising. Only 7.5% of people were aged 65 or over in 2025, and 59.4% lived in urban areas². Stunting affected 22.0% of children under five in 2023⁶. Fertility stood at 2.1 births per woman in 2024².

This edition therefore reads Indonesia’s risk as a property of the couplings between these forces. The matrix, risk objects, capability ladder and scenario that follow ask the same two questions: where does a shock travel next, and who holds the capability to stop it?

Figure 1.1How much of Indonesia’s electricity is clean? Electricity shares, 2024 (%)

Clean sources supplied 18% of electricity, against 41% for the world; wind and solar supplied 0.5%⁸.

Item	Bar, scaled to the largest value	Value
Fossil fuels		82
Clean sources		18
Hydro		7.4
Wind and solar		0.5

Source: as cited in the note to this figure. Year 2024.

Figure ID FIG-COUNTRY-IDN-2026-BASELINE-01-003

82%

fossil share, 2024⁸

18%

clean share, 2024⁸

7.4%

hydro, 2024⁸

57%

renewable electricity benchmark for 2030⁹

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The Indonesia matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

Figure 1.2Couplings between the five systems

Each line is one coupling from one system to another, drawn by the strength the edition assigns. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events.

Strong
Moderate
Weak

Source: this edition’s coupling matrix (Table 1.1); status Estimated.

Table 1.1Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system
From, to	WAT	ENE	FOO	HLT	BIO
WAT Water	·	STRONG nuclear cooling · hydro	STRONG irrigation · rain-fed yield	MODERATE drinking water	STRONG flows · wetlands
ENE Energy	MODERATE pumping · treatment	·	STRONG fuel · fertiliser · cold chain	STRONG facility power · cooling	MODERATE reservoirs · land use
FOO Food	MODERATE withdrawals · nutrients	WEAK biofuel feedstock	·	STRONG nutrition · food safety	STRONG land conversion
HLT Health	WEAK workforce	WEAK workforce	MODERATE labour · disease	·	WEAK residues
BIO Biodiversity	STRONG regulation · filtration	MODERATE fire on lines · biomass	STRONG pollination · soils	MODERATE zoonoses · smoke	·
Strength: strong, moderate or weak; a Nexus estimate (status Estimated) from cited evidence and analogue events. The scale is defined in Annex A.

Transmission paths

01
CLI → WAT → INF
Heavy rain floods and triggers landslides, cutting roads and power.
Reported Sumatra, late 2025¹⁰
02
CLI → WAT → FOO
Floods destroy standing crops and delay planting.
Reported Sumatra, late 2025¹⁰
03
TRD → FOO
A wheat price or shipping shock reaches food prices.
Expert input wheat imports 2025/26¹⁰
04
ENE → HLT
A power outage interrupts clinics and cold chains.
Expert input event record not bound¹⁶
05
CLI → BIO → HLT
Fire and haze affect forests, air and health.
Reported haze analysis⁵³

1.4Reinforcing loops

A shock entering either system of a loop can return amplified through the other.

Table 1.2Pairs of systems where both directions are rated strong
Loop	First direction	Second direction
WAT and BIO	Water to biodiversity: flows · wetlands	Biodiversity to water: regulation · filtration
FOO and BIO	Food to biodiversity: land conversion	Biodiversity to food: pollination · soils
A causal-loop reading of the matrix (Sterman, Business Dynamics, 2000): structural, from estimated strengths, not a measured feedback.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), Indonesia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/IDN/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL?format=jsonback
3World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: GDP, GDP growth, GNI per capita (Atlas method), poverty headcount at national lines and agriculture value added, Indonesia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/IDN/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?format=jsonback
4World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: total greenhouse-gas emissions excluding LULUCF (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), net energy imports and access to electricity, Indonesia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/IDN/indicator/EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5?format=jsonback
9Climate Action Tracker (ed.), “Indonesia” country assessment. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute; the page lists an update dated 28 September 2026. Observation year 2024 (renewables) and 2035 (target gap). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/indonesia/back
11Government of the Republic of Indonesia (ed.), Republic of Indonesia’s Second Nationally Determined Contribution. Submission to the UNFCCC, 2025. Observation year 2025. Submission text not read; its existence is taken from [12].back
12Climate Change Laws of the World (ed.), “Indonesia Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC3.0)” and “Republic of Indonesia’s Second NDC,” document records. Grantham Research Institute and Climate Policy Radar. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://climate-laws.org/geographies/indonesiaback
8Ember (ed.), “Indonesia” country page, electricity generation mix. Ember, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://ember-energy.org/countries-and-regions/indonesia/back
20Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ed.), Handbook of Energy and Economic Statistics of Indonesia. Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
21PLN (ed.), Electricity Supply Business Plan (RUPTL). PLN, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; the plan text was not read at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
10Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Indonesia, reference date 29 January 2026. FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025 (production) and 2025/26 (imports). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.fao.org/giews/countrybrief/country.jsp?code=IDNback
22National Food Agency (ed.), food balance and self-sufficiency statistics. National Food Agency, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
2World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: population aged 65 and above, urban population, life expectancy at birth and total fertility rate, Indonesia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025 (65 and above, urban) and 2024 (life expectancy, fertility). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/IDN/indicator/SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS?format=jsonback
6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: prevalence of stunting, current health expenditure and population living in slums, Indonesia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023 (stunting, health expenditure) and 2022 (slums). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/IDN/indicator/SH.STA.STNT.ZS?format=jsonback
16National Disaster Management Agency, BNPB (ed.), Indonesian Disaster Data and Information (DIBI). BNPB, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; the page returned no data at evidence close. Observation year none bound. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://dibi.bnpb.go.id/back
53J. Koplitz, L. J. Mickley, M. E. Marlier et al., “Public health impacts of the severe haze in Equatorial Asia in September–October 2015,” Environmental Research Letters, vol. 11, 094023, 2016. Observation year 2015.back

Indonesia 2026
Chapter 2

Key findings

Twelve findings carry the baseline. They are grouped by system, never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.

4 min read1 figure0 tables12 notesNR-COUNTRY-IDN-2026-BASELINE

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-IDN-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001

Greenhouse-gas emissions excluding land use were 1,323.8 Mt CO₂e in 2024, up from 1,261.3 Mt CO₂e in 2023 and 1,181.3 Mt CO₂e in 2022.

Figure 2.1Emissions excluding land use (Mt CO₂e)

Item	Bar, scaled to the largest value	Value
2022		1,181.3
2023		1,261.3
2024		1,323.8

Source: World Bank WDI emissions series⁴.

Implication

What would move it

The national inventory including land use, the electricity mix for 2025 and 2026, and the Second NDC implementation plans would each move this finding.

2.2Climate forcing

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-IDN-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001
Greenhouse-gas emissions excluding land use were 1,323.8 Mt CO₂e in 2024, up from 1,261.3 Mt CO₂e in 2023.⁴
ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-IDN-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002
Climate Action Tracker rates Indonesia’s overall climate effort critically insufficient and puts the gap to a 1.5 °C pathway at 112% in 2030 and 141% in 2035.⁹
ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-IDN-2026-BASELINE-CLI-007
Floods and landslides in Aceh, North Sumatra and West Sumatra in late December 2025 and early January 2026 caused crop losses.¹⁰

2.3Energy

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-IDN-2026-BASELINE-ENE-003
Fossil fuels supplied 82% of electricity and clean sources 18% in 2024; hydro supplied 7.4% and wind and solar 0.5%.⁸
ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-IDN-2026-BASELINE-ENE-004
Indonesia was a net energy exporter in 2024: net energy imports were minus 92.8% of energy use.⁴

2.4Food

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-IDN-2026-BASELINE-FOO-005
The 2025 paddy crop was officially estimated at 59 million tonnes, about 9% above average.¹⁰
ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-IDN-2026-BASELINE-FOO-006
Wheat imports are forecast at a near-record 11.5 million tonnes in the 2025/26 marketing year.¹⁰

2.5Health

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-IDN-2026-BASELINE-HLT-008
Stunting affected 22.0% of children under five in 2023, down from 30% in 2018.⁶
ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-IDN-2026-BASELINE-HLT-009
Indonesia had 285.7 million people in 2025; 7.5% were aged 65 or over and 59.4% lived in urban areas.¹²

2.6Biodiversity

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-IDN-2026-BASELINE-BIO-010
Protected areas covered 12.0% of land in 2025, against a global target of 30% by 2030.⁵⁴⁰

2.7Water

Not boundEQL 1NRF-COUNTRY-IDN-2026-BASELINE-WAT-011
Safely managed drinking water, water loss and flood records are not bound in this edition.²⁴⁵⁵

2.8Systemic

Expert inputEQL 2NRF-COUNTRY-IDN-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012
The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a flood and landslide sequence across rice-growing islands that cuts roads, power and harvests together while wheat imports are high. §9.3

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

4World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: total greenhouse-gas emissions excluding LULUCF (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), net energy imports and access to electricity, Indonesia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/IDN/indicator/EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5?format=jsonback
9Climate Action Tracker (ed.), “Indonesia” country assessment. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute; the page lists an update dated 28 September 2026. Observation year 2024 (renewables) and 2035 (target gap). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/indonesia/back
8Ember (ed.), “Indonesia” country page, electricity generation mix. Ember, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://ember-energy.org/countries-and-regions/indonesia/back
19Ministry of Environment and Forestry (ed.), national greenhouse-gas inventory system (SIGN-SMART). Ministry of Environment and Forestry, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
10Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Indonesia, reference date 29 January 2026. FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025 (production) and 2025/26 (imports). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.fao.org/giews/countrybrief/country.jsp?code=IDNback
6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: prevalence of stunting, current health expenditure and population living in slums, Indonesia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023 (stunting, health expenditure) and 2022 (slums). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/IDN/indicator/SH.STA.STNT.ZS?format=jsonback
1World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), Indonesia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/IDN/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL?format=jsonback
2World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: population aged 65 and above, urban population, life expectancy at birth and total fertility rate, Indonesia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025 (65 and above, urban) and 2024 (life expectancy, fertility). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/IDN/indicator/SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS?format=jsonback
5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: forest area, terrestrial protected areas and annual freshwater withdrawals, Indonesia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025 (protected areas), 2024 (forest area) and 2022 (withdrawals). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/IDN/indicator/ER.LND.PTLD.ZS?format=jsonback
40Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Observation year 2022.back
24Ministry of Public Works (ed.), water resources and infrastructure records. Ministry of Public Works, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
55WHO and UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme (eds.), Progress on household drinking water, sanitation and hygiene 2000–2024. WHO and UNICEF, Geneva and New York, 2025. Source for a designed gap; Indonesia values not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back

Indonesia 2026
Chapter 3

Systems and sectors at baseline

5 min read0 figures2 tables15 notesNR-COUNTRY-IDN-2026-BASELINE

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

WAT · Water

Safely managed drinking water

Not bound

Source: WHO and UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme⁵⁵. Blocker: not retrieved by evidence close.

Not boundnoneJMP⁵⁵

ENE · Energy

Fossil share of electricity

82%

Clean sources supplied 18%, hydro 7.4% and wind and solar 0.5%.

Reported2024Ember⁸

FOO · Food

Paddy production, officially estimated

59million t

About 9% above the five-year average.

Reported2025FAO¹⁰

HLT · Health

Stunting among children under five

22.0%

Down from 30% in 2018.

Reported2023World Bank⁶

BIO · Biodiversity

Land in protected areas

12.0%

Forest covered 50.7% of land in 2024; the global target is 30% protected by 2030.

Reported2025World Bank⁵

SYS · Cross-system

Gap to a 1.5 °C pathway, 2035

141%

The gap was 112% for 2030.

Reported2026CAT⁹

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries risk into other systems.

Table 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
Domain	Posture at baseline	Coupling	Status
WAT	Supply, loss and flood indicators not bound; withdrawals 11.0% of internal resources in the 2022 series.	WAT → HLT · WAT ↔ ENE	Not bound EQL 1
ENE	Fossil fuels 82% of electricity in 2024; net energy exporter.	ENE → all	Reported EQL 4
FOO	Paddy 59 million tonnes in 2025; wheat imports near a record.	FOO ← TRD, ENE	Reported EQL 4
HLT	Stunting 22.0% in 2023; young population; surveillance series not bound.	HLT ← CLI, WAT	Reported EQL 4
BIO	Forest 50.7% of land; protected land 12.0%; deforestation records not bound.	BIO ↔ WAT, FOO	Reported EQL 3
CLI	Critically insufficient effort; emissions rising; floods in Sumatra.	forcing on all systems	Reported EQL 3
INF	Island networks; condition not bound at public-safe resolution.	INF → all	Expert input EQL 2
FIN	IMF projects 5.0% growth in 2026; protection gap not bound.	FIN ← CLI	Reported EQL 3
DAT	Digital dependencies of lifelines not mapped at public-safe resolution.	DAT → ENE, FIN	Expert input EQL 2
AIC	Data-centre and industrial load growth not quantified.	AIC → ENE, WAT	Expert input EQL 2
MIN	Mineral and coal export dependence not bound.	MIN ← TRD	Expert input EQL 2
TRD	An energy exporter that imports wheat and depends on sea lanes between islands.	TRD → all	Expert input EQL 2

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened on the same grammar, so that later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Table 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
Code	Sector	Baseline evidence	Exposure to watch	Evidence coverage
GS-00	Cross-system	compound flood, landslide and supply stress	floods across rice-growing islands	THIN
GS-01	Water	indicators not bound²⁴⁵⁵	floods; drought; supply	THIN
GS-02	Energy	82% fossil electricity, 2024⁸	supply disruption; price shocks	PARTIAL
GS-03	Food	11.5 million t wheat imports¹⁰	import and harvest shocks	PARTIAL
GS-04	Health	stunting 22.0%⁶	service demand; disaster access	PARTIAL
GS-05	Finance	IMF growth 5.0%⁷	catastrophe fiscal cost	THIN
GS-06	Development	poverty 8.5% in 2025³	service withdrawal	PARTIAL
GS-07	Climate	effort critically insufficient⁹	rain, heat and fire	PARTIAL
GS-08	Disaster	loss records not bound¹⁶	floods, landslides, earthquakes, volcanoes	THIN
GS-09	Infrastructure	condition not bound	maintenance backlog	THIN
GS-10	Cities	subsidence in the capital region⁵¹	urban flooding	THIN
GS-11	Biodiversity	protected land 12.0%⁵	land-use and fire pressure	THIN
GS-12	Earth observation	national weather service data not read¹⁸	continuity	THIN
GS-13	Cyber and digital	dependencies not yet mapped	systemic outages	THIN
GS-14	Policy	disaster management law¹⁵	coordination across levels	PARTIAL
GS-15	Science	peer-reviewed haze and carbon work⁵²⁵³	translation to regions	THIN

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

55WHO and UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme (eds.), Progress on household drinking water, sanitation and hygiene 2000–2024. WHO and UNICEF, Geneva and New York, 2025. Source for a designed gap; Indonesia values not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
8Ember (ed.), “Indonesia” country page, electricity generation mix. Ember, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://ember-energy.org/countries-and-regions/indonesia/back
10Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Indonesia, reference date 29 January 2026. FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025 (production) and 2025/26 (imports). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.fao.org/giews/countrybrief/country.jsp?code=IDNback
6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: prevalence of stunting, current health expenditure and population living in slums, Indonesia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023 (stunting, health expenditure) and 2022 (slums). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/IDN/indicator/SH.STA.STNT.ZS?format=jsonback
5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: forest area, terrestrial protected areas and annual freshwater withdrawals, Indonesia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025 (protected areas), 2024 (forest area) and 2022 (withdrawals). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/IDN/indicator/ER.LND.PTLD.ZS?format=jsonback
9Climate Action Tracker (ed.), “Indonesia” country assessment. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute; the page lists an update dated 28 September 2026. Observation year 2024 (renewables) and 2035 (target gap). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/indonesia/back
24Ministry of Public Works (ed.), water resources and infrastructure records. Ministry of Public Works, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
7International Monetary Fund (ed.), Indonesia country page: Article IV consultation of January 2026 and July 2026 World Economic Outlook Update projections. IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2026 projection. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/IDNback
3World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: GDP, GDP growth, GNI per capita (Atlas method), poverty headcount at national lines and agriculture value added, Indonesia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/IDN/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?format=jsonback
16National Disaster Management Agency, BNPB (ed.), Indonesian Disaster Data and Information (DIBI). BNPB, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; the page returned no data at evidence close. Observation year none bound. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://dibi.bnpb.go.id/back
51H. Z. Abidin, H. Andreas, I. Gumilar et al., “Land subsidence of Jakarta (Indonesia) and its relation with urban development,” Natural Hazards, vol. 59, pp. 1753–1771, 2011. Observation year 2011.back
18Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency, BMKG (ed.), climate and geophysical monitoring records. BMKG, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
15Government of the Republic of Indonesia (ed.), Law No. 24 of 2007 on Disaster Management. Jakarta, 2007. Observation year 2007 (enactment). Current consolidated text not read.back
52D. Murdiyarso, J. Purbopuspito, J. B. Kauffman et al., “The potential of Indonesian mangrove forests for global climate change mitigation,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 5, pp. 1089–1092, 2015. Observation year 2015.back
53J. Koplitz, L. J. Mickley, M. E. Marlier et al., “Public health impacts of the severe haze in Equatorial Asia in September–October 2015,” Environmental Research Letters, vol. 11, 094023, 2016. Observation year 2015.back

Indonesia 2026
Chapter 4

Risks and capability

Four risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.

4 min read0 figures1 table13 notesNR-COUNTRY-IDN-2026-BASELINE

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

ReportedEQL 3RSK-IDN-CLI-001
Heavy rain, flood and landslide
Driver
intense rainfall on steep and flat terrain
Exposure
floodplains, hill settlements, rice land
Vulnerability
not bound at public-safe resolution
Capacity
not bound
Cascade
CLI → WAT → INF, FOO, HLT
Horizon
annual
ReportedEQL 3RSK-IDN-FOO-002
Harvest loss and import shock
Driver
crop losses and grain price spikes
Exposure
rice and maize growers; wheat-based foods
Vulnerability
self-sufficiency not bound²²
Capacity
reserve stocks not bound²²
Cascade
TRD → FOO → HLT, FIN
Horizon
1–5 years
ReportedEQL 3RSK-IDN-ENE-003
Fossil dependence and supply disruption
Driver
fuel price spike or plant outage
Exposure
power, industry, households
Vulnerability
generation by fuel not bound²⁰
Capacity
reserve margins not bound²¹
Cascade
ENE → HLT, FOO, FIN
Horizon
1–5 years
Expert inputEQL 2RSK-IDN-SEI-004
Geophysical hazards and subsidence near dense settlement
Driver
earthquake, volcanic or subsidence processes
Exposure
cities, ports, coasts
Vulnerability
not bound; land subsidence in Jakarta documented⁵¹
Capacity
not bound
Cascade
SEI → INF, WAT, HLT
Horizon
30 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Table 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
Function	Level	Strongest public evidence at baseline
Prevention and mitigation	NOT BOUND	source: national disaster agency records¹⁶ · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
Monitoring and observation	NOT BOUND	source: national weather and geophysics agency records¹⁸ · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
Early warning	NOT BOUND	source: weather and disaster agency records¹⁶¹⁸ · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
Preparedness and planning	NOT BOUND	source: national disaster plans under the disaster management law¹⁵ · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
Redundancy and reserves	NOT BOUND	source: energy and food reserve records²⁰²² · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
Response	NOT BOUND	source: disaster agency records¹⁶ · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
Continuity of critical services	NOT BOUND	source: operator continuity records²¹ · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
Recovery	NOT BOUND	source: recovery programme records¹⁶ · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
Adaptation	NOT BOUND	source: national adaptation plans¹¹ · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
Social protection	NOT BOUND	source: national social insurance records¹⁷ · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
Finance and insurance	NOT BOUND	source: financial regulator reports²⁶²⁷ · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
Institutional coordination	NOT BOUND	source: disaster management law¹⁵ · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
Technical infrastructure	NOT BOUND	source: operator asset records²⁴ · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
Workforce	NOT BOUND	source: ministry workforce statistics²³ · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
Research capacity	NOT BOUND	source: national research statistics¹⁷ · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

22National Food Agency (ed.), food balance and self-sufficiency statistics. National Food Agency, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
20Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ed.), Handbook of Energy and Economic Statistics of Indonesia. Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
21PLN (ed.), Electricity Supply Business Plan (RUPTL). PLN, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; the plan text was not read at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
51H. Z. Abidin, H. Andreas, I. Gumilar et al., “Land subsidence of Jakarta (Indonesia) and its relation with urban development,” Natural Hazards, vol. 59, pp. 1753–1771, 2011. Observation year 2011.back
16National Disaster Management Agency, BNPB (ed.), Indonesian Disaster Data and Information (DIBI). BNPB, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; the page returned no data at evidence close. Observation year none bound. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://dibi.bnpb.go.id/back
18Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency, BMKG (ed.), climate and geophysical monitoring records. BMKG, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
15Government of the Republic of Indonesia (ed.), Law No. 24 of 2007 on Disaster Management. Jakarta, 2007. Observation year 2007 (enactment). Current consolidated text not read.back
11Government of the Republic of Indonesia (ed.), Republic of Indonesia’s Second Nationally Determined Contribution. Submission to the UNFCCC, 2025. Observation year 2025. Submission text not read; its existence is taken from [12].back
17Statistics Indonesia, BPS (ed.), national statistical releases (population, social and economic series). BPS, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; the site returned a 403 error at evidence close. Observation year none bound. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.bps.go.id/enback
26Financial Services Authority, OJK (ed.), Taxonomy for Sustainable Finance in Indonesia. OJK, Jakarta. Observation year 2024 (latest edition known). Status and text not read at evidence close.back
27Financial Services Authority, OJK (ed.), Regulation No. 51/POJK.03/2017 on the Implementation of Sustainable Finance. OJK, Jakarta, 2017. Observation year 2017 (enactment). Current consolidated text not read.back
24Ministry of Public Works (ed.), water resources and infrastructure records. Ministry of Public Works, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
23Ministry of Health (ed.), Indonesia Health Survey and nutrition survey results. Ministry of Health, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back

Indonesia 2026
Chapter 5

Flood and landslide sequence across rice-growing islands

A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

2 min read0 figures0 tables2 notesNR-COUNTRY-IDN-2026-BASELINE

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-IDN-FLD-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline: the 2026 reference state in this edition
Drivers: a prolonged heavy-rain season causing floods and landslides across several provinces during planting, while wheat imports are already near a record
Analogues: Sumatra, late December 2025 and January 2026¹⁰; event records are otherwise a designed gap¹⁶
Interventions: none modelled; the specification describes the unmitigated case
Run state: narrative specification; quantified Foundry run scheduled for Q1 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

1
CLI → WAT
heavy rain floods fields and settlements
Sumatra¹⁰
2
WAT → INF
landslides cut roads and power lines
Sumatra¹⁰
3
WAT → FOO
standing crops are lost and planting is delayed
Sumatra¹⁰
4
INF → HLT
access to clinics and supplies falls
expert input
5
TRD → FOO
import needs rise as domestic supply tightens
expert input
6
FOO → FIN
price pressure reaches household budgets
expert input

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-IDN-FLD-01 would travel through Indonesia’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

Step	What happens	Source
01 Climate to water	Heavy rain floods fields and settlements. Analogue or source: Sumatra [10].	Edition IDN, scenario SCN-IDN-FLD-01, step 1
02 Water to infrastructure	Landslides cut roads and power lines. Analogue or source: Sumatra [10].	Edition IDN, scenario SCN-IDN-FLD-01, step 2
03 Water to food	Standing crops are lost and planting is delayed. Analogue or source: Sumatra [10].	Edition IDN, scenario SCN-IDN-FLD-01, step 3
04 Infrastructure to health	Access to clinics and supplies falls. Analogue or source: expert input.	Edition IDN, scenario SCN-IDN-FLD-01, step 4
05 Trade to food	Import needs rise as domestic supply tightens. Analogue or source: expert input.	Edition IDN, scenario SCN-IDN-FLD-01, step 5
06 Food to finance	Price pressure reaches household budgets. Analogue or source: expert input.	Edition IDN, scenario SCN-IDN-FLD-01, step 6

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: Indonesia 2026, scenario SCN-IDN-FLD-01 (2026); Indonesia 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

10Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Indonesia, reference date 29 January 2026. FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025 (production) and 2025/26 (imports). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.fao.org/giews/countrybrief/country.jsp?code=IDNback
16National Disaster Management Agency, BNPB (ed.), Indonesian Disaster Data and Information (DIBI). BNPB, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; the page returned no data at evidence close. Observation year none bound. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://dibi.bnpb.go.id/back

Indonesia 2026
Chapter 6

Readings from the other desks

The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument. The other desks’ own editions of this subject are listed first, as cross-references, not copies.

14 min read0 figures8 tables43 notesNR-COUNTRY-IDN-2026-BASELINE

6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject

Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.

Desk	Edition	State
GCRI Systems Evidence	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle
GRF Public Deliberation	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle
GRA Capital Readiness	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle
Standards Progress	Outside this desk’s remit	Not in remit
Academy Capability	Outside this desk’s remit	Not in remit
Index Measurement	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle

6.2Three lenses

One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports a coupled reading of Indonesia’s risk: rising emissions, an electricity mix that is 82% fossil, high wheat imports and recent flood losses on Sumatra. Evidence is strongest for emissions, the power mix and crop outlooks, and weakest for water, hazard losses, nature and the national inventory, which are not bound.

CLI-001 · ENE-003 · FOO-005 · SYS-012

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people risk arrives as a flood, a landslide or a price change. The baseline asks that public debate weigh how island geography changes who can be reached and how fast places recover.

CLI-007 · HLT-008 · SYS-012

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. The protection gap and public-asset cover are not bound, and the effort gap to a 1.5 °C pathway points to large investment in the power system. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an approval.

FIN-011 · CLI-002

NEXUS

Synthesis

Indonesia’s emissions, power, crop and nutrition series are readable now; water, hazard-loss, inventory and nature series are not. The 2027 programme should bind them, map island lifeline dependencies, and measure grain import exposure.

SYS-012 · A-01 · A-02

6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions

How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for Indonesia. The standards are preparatory working drafts (October 2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.

Table 6.1The quarterly rhythm every edition follows
Quarter	Edition	Question	Boundary
Q1	State and Agenda	What matters this year, and what is the starting position?	observed baseline stays distinct from planned work
Q2	Evidence and Build	What new evidence and capability have been developed?	a configured capability is not a validated result
Q3	Stress Test and Readiness	What do scenarios and tests reveal?	simulated loss or performance is not observed impact
Q4	Annual Synthesis and Renewal	What did the year establish, and what changes next?	release follows review, not event publicity deadlines

Table 6.2Who contributes what each quarter
Steward or body	Role	Contribution route
GCRI Canada	Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat; publisher of record; technical truth (key T)	science and practice communities · GCRI gateway
The Global Risks Forum (GRF)	leadership, dialogue and the Universe programme; public meaning (key M)	policy, Universe and national adoption · GRF gateway
The Global Risks Alliance (GRA)	finance, insurance and development readiness; capital meaning (key F)	finance and insurance · GRA gateway
Nexus Standards	preparatory drafts on vocabulary, hazards, indicators and methods	Standards site · working groups HAZ, IND, MTH, FIN, AI
Risk Academy	learning pathways tied to the agenda questions	Academy gateway · learning by review
Indonesia	national pathway: Desk, Leadership Council, Consortium, Working Groups	national Commons room

Standards drafts used in this edition

Risk vocabulary NRS-C1 (424 terms) for terms in the glossary
Hazard atlas NHS-1 1.1.0 (905 hazards in 120 families) for risk objects
Seven risk classes: global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier-tech

Standards calendar to watch

Founding calls from 20 October 2026; working groups meet from 5 November 2026
Inaugural Global Standards Council session, 12 January 2027
Quarterly reviews in March, June, September and December, aligned with each edition

6.4GCRI reading: the model card

GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology

6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.

Emissions excluding land use rose through 2024 and the tracker puts the gap to a 1.5 °C pathway at 141% in 2035. The baseline reads this as a question about the power system and land use, not about a single sector.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 01

An effort far from the pathway

Indonesia exports more energy than it uses, yet fossil fuels supplied 82% of electricity. Energy security and the transition are separate questions here, and both depend on series not yet bound.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 02

Energy exporter, fossil grid

A large paddy crop and near-record wheat imports sit beside flood losses in Sumatra. Food security is a harvest question and a trade question at once.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 03

Food depends on weather and trade

This edition names the series it could not read. A gap printed with its source and blocker is more useful to a reviewer than an estimate that cannot be checked.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 04

What is not yet bound

6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: q1 2027 readiness pack

The registers that open the first operational quarter. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.

Table 6.3Q1 2027 readiness pack
Item	Register	State at baseline	First Q1 2027 entry
E1	National risk state delta	baseline set by this edition	changes against the baseline
E2	WEFH+B state delta	five system readings set	indicator updates and freshness
E3	Agenda and Portfolio movement	eight agenda items · 7 proposed objects	admission decisions
E4	NWG delivery register	no groups yet	first monthly outputs
E5	NNC capability register	membership opens in Q1 2027	first contributions
E6	NLC questions and challenges	none yet	first challenge log
E7	Foundry technical state	environment prepared	first sealed cut
E8	Publication candidates	twelve findings carried forward	PUBLISH · HOLD dispositions
E9	Universe readiness	one candidate mission	admission and role spine
E10	Correction register	none	first correction cycle

Publication dispositions

Publish
Hold
Needs evidence
Restricted
Superseded

6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Instruments that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.

IN FORCE
ADOPTED
SUBMITTED
UNDER REVIEW
PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY

Table 6.4Standards and regulatory watch
Instrument	Body	Scope	Status	Relevance
Paris Agreement · Second NDC; Enhanced NDC of 2022¹¹¹³⁴¹	UNFCCC · Indonesia	national	SUBMITTED 2025	emissions pathway
Presidential Regulation 98 of 2021, carbon economic value²⁸	Government of Indonesia	national	ISSUED 2021	carbon market
Law 7 of 2021, harmonisation of tax regulations²⁹	Government of Indonesia	national	ENACTED 2021	carbon tax
Presidential Regulation 112 of 2022, renewable energy³⁰	Government of Indonesia	national	ISSUED 2022	power mix
Law 24 of 2007, disaster management¹⁵	Government of Indonesia	national	ENACTED 2007	disaster management
Kunming-Montreal Framework⁴⁰	CBD	international	ADOPTED 2022	30by30
Taxonomy for Sustainable Finance²⁶	OJK	financial sector	STATUS NOT BOUND	finance
Sendai Framework 2015–2030³⁹	UNDRR	international	ADOPTED 2015	risk reduction
Law 17 of 2019, water resources³²	Government of Indonesia	national	ENACTED 2019	water governance
Law 18 of 2012, food³³	Government of Indonesia	national	ENACTED 2012	food governance
Law 17 of 2023, health³⁴	Government of Indonesia	national	ENACTED 2023	health governance
Law 3 of 2022, state capital³¹	Government of Indonesia	national	ENACTED 2022	capital relocation
Just Energy Transition Partnership investment plan³⁵	JETP Secretariat	national	PUBLISHED 2023	energy transition finance

Changed since 2024

Indonesia submitted its Second NDC in 2025¹¹¹²
Climate Action Tracker lists an update to its Indonesia assessment dated 28 September 2026⁹
The IMF Executive Board completed its latest Article IV consultation on 14 January 2026⁷

To watch in 2027

Status of sustainability disclosure standards for listed companies²⁷
Revisions to the electricity supply plan²¹
Implementation rules for the carbon economic value regulation²⁸

6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments

The review behind this edition covers peer-reviewed science, national and international assessments and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Full systematic reviews begin in Q1 2027 for each agenda item.

Review protocol

Question: What does the published evidence establish about Indonesia’s coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity risks?
Sources searched: peer-reviewed literature; national and international assessments; official releases; industry loss data
Window: releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026
Selection: sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition
Next step: systematic reviews for agenda items A-01 to A-05 in Q1 2027

Table 6.5Science and assessments
Reference	Type	Year	Role	Used for
Lee and Romero (eds.)³⁸	assessment	2023	context	forcing
McElwee et al. (eds.)⁴²	assessment	2024	framework	nexus interlinkages
Zscheischler et al.⁴³	journal article	2018	framework	compound events
Abidin et al.⁵¹	journal article	2011	supports	land subsidence
WMO State of the Climate in Asia⁴⁸	assessment	2025	context	regional climate
IEA Global Energy Review³⁷	assessment	2025	context	global energy

Table 6.6Institutional reports
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
Disaster management law¹⁵	Government of Indonesia	2007	supports	disaster governance
Second NDC¹¹	Government of Indonesia	2025	supports	target
Carbon economic value regulation²⁸	Government of Indonesia	2021	context	carbon pricing
Renewable energy regulation³⁰	Government of Indonesia	2022	context	energy pathway
OECD Economic Survey⁴⁶	OECD	2024	context	fiscal
Energy Policy Review³⁶	IEA	2022	context	energy policy
Country Climate and Development Report⁵⁶	World Bank	2023	context	climate and development

Table 6.7Official statistics and national sources
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
Population, GDP and health indicators¹²³⁶	World Bank	2025	supports	profile
Electricity data⁸	Ember	2024	supports	power mix
Crop monitoring¹⁰	FAO	2026	supports	paddy, wheat, floods
Country record⁷	IMF	2026	supports	growth projection
Food security assessment⁵⁴	FAO and partners	2025	context	food
Forest Resources Assessment⁵⁷	FAO	2025	context	forests

Table 6.8Industry, loss data and international sources
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
Financial sector regulation²⁶²⁷	OJK	2024	context	finance
NatCatSERVICE⁵⁰	Munich Re	2026	context	global losses
Emissions Gap Report⁴⁹	UNEP	2025	context	ambition gap
Global Assessment Report⁴⁷	UNDRR	2025	context	disaster finance

Where the evidence agrees

Heavy rain extremes are intensifying across Asia³⁸⁴⁸
Compound events raise risk beyond single hazards⁴³
Land subsidence raises flood risk in the capital region⁵¹

Where it is unsettled

How fast fossil generation can fall against the effort gap⁸⁹
How land use and peat emissions should be combined with the energy series⁴¹⁹
How disaster losses and deaths are recorded and counted¹⁶

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

11Government of the Republic of Indonesia (ed.), Republic of Indonesia’s Second Nationally Determined Contribution. Submission to the UNFCCC, 2025. Observation year 2025. Submission text not read; its existence is taken from [12].back
13Government of the Republic of Indonesia (ed.), Enhanced Nationally Determined Contribution. Submission to the UNFCCC, 2022. Observation year 2022. Not opened at evidence close.back
41UNFCCC (ed.), Paris Agreement. United Nations, Paris, 2015. Observation year 2015.back
28Government of the Republic of Indonesia (ed.), Presidential Regulation No. 98 of 2021 on the Implementation of Carbon Economic Value. Jakarta, 2021. Observation year 2021.back
29Government of the Republic of Indonesia (ed.), Law No. 7 of 2021 on the Harmonisation of Tax Regulations. Jakarta, 2021. Observation year 2021.back
30Government of the Republic of Indonesia (ed.), Presidential Regulation No. 112 of 2022 on the Acceleration of Renewable Energy Development for Electricity Supply. Jakarta, 2022. Observation year 2022.back
15Government of the Republic of Indonesia (ed.), Law No. 24 of 2007 on Disaster Management. Jakarta, 2007. Observation year 2007 (enactment). Current consolidated text not read.back
40Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Observation year 2022.back
26Financial Services Authority, OJK (ed.), Taxonomy for Sustainable Finance in Indonesia. OJK, Jakarta. Observation year 2024 (latest edition known). Status and text not read at evidence close.back
39UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Observation year 2015.back
32Government of the Republic of Indonesia (ed.), Law No. 17 of 2019 on Water Resources. Jakarta, 2019. Observation year 2019.back
33Government of the Republic of Indonesia (ed.), Law No. 18 of 2012 on Food. Jakarta, 2012. Observation year 2012.back
34Government of the Republic of Indonesia (ed.), Law No. 17 of 2023 on Health. Jakarta, 2023. Observation year 2023.back
31Government of the Republic of Indonesia (ed.), Law No. 3 of 2022 on the State Capital. Jakarta, 2022. Observation year 2022.back
35Indonesia Just Energy Transition Partnership Secretariat (ed.), Comprehensive Investment and Policy Plan. JETP Secretariat, Jakarta, 2023. Observation year 2023. Not opened at evidence close.back
12Climate Change Laws of the World (ed.), “Indonesia Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC3.0)” and “Republic of Indonesia’s Second NDC,” document records. Grantham Research Institute and Climate Policy Radar. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://climate-laws.org/geographies/indonesiaback
9Climate Action Tracker (ed.), “Indonesia” country assessment. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute; the page lists an update dated 28 September 2026. Observation year 2024 (renewables) and 2035 (target gap). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/indonesia/back
7International Monetary Fund (ed.), Indonesia country page: Article IV consultation of January 2026 and July 2026 World Economic Outlook Update projections. IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2026 projection. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/IDNback
27Financial Services Authority, OJK (ed.), Regulation No. 51/POJK.03/2017 on the Implementation of Sustainable Finance. OJK, Jakarta, 2017. Observation year 2017 (enactment). Current consolidated text not read.back
21PLN (ed.), Electricity Supply Business Plan (RUPTL). PLN, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; the plan text was not read at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
38H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. Observation year 2023.back
42P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. Observation year 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054 back
43J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Observation year 2018.back
51H. Z. Abidin, H. Andreas, I. Gumilar et al., “Land subsidence of Jakarta (Indonesia) and its relation with urban development,” Natural Hazards, vol. 59, pp. 1753–1771, 2011. Observation year 2011.back
48World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Asia 2024. WMO, Geneva, 2025. Observation year 2024.back
37International Energy Agency (ed.), Global Energy Review 2025. IEA, Paris, 2025. Observation year 2024.back
46OECD (ed.), OECD Economic Surveys: Indonesia 2024. OECD Publishing, Paris, 2024. Observation year 2024. Not opened at evidence close.back
36International Energy Agency (ed.), Indonesia 2022: Energy Policy Review. IEA, Paris, 2022. Observation year 2022. Not opened at evidence close.back
56World Bank (ed.), Indonesia Country Climate and Development Report. World Bank, Washington DC, 2023. Observation year 2023. Not opened at evidence close.back
1World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), Indonesia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/IDN/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL?format=jsonback
2World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: population aged 65 and above, urban population, life expectancy at birth and total fertility rate, Indonesia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025 (65 and above, urban) and 2024 (life expectancy, fertility). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/IDN/indicator/SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS?format=jsonback
3World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: GDP, GDP growth, GNI per capita (Atlas method), poverty headcount at national lines and agriculture value added, Indonesia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/IDN/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?format=jsonback
6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: prevalence of stunting, current health expenditure and population living in slums, Indonesia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023 (stunting, health expenditure) and 2022 (slums). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/IDN/indicator/SH.STA.STNT.ZS?format=jsonback
8Ember (ed.), “Indonesia” country page, electricity generation mix. Ember, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://ember-energy.org/countries-and-regions/indonesia/back
10Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Indonesia, reference date 29 January 2026. FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025 (production) and 2025/26 (imports). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.fao.org/giews/countrybrief/country.jsp?code=IDNback
54FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2025. FAO, Rome, 2025. Observation year 2024. Not opened at evidence close.back
57Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), Global Forest Resources Assessment 2025. FAO, Rome, 2025. Observation year 2025. Not opened at evidence close.back
50Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026. Observation year 2025.back
49United Nations Environment Programme (ed.), Emissions Gap Report 2025. UNEP, Nairobi, 2025. Observation year 2025.back
47UNDRR (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2025. UNDRR, Geneva, 2025. Observation year 2025.back
4World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: total greenhouse-gas emissions excluding LULUCF (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), net energy imports and access to electricity, Indonesia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/IDN/indicator/EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5?format=jsonback
19Ministry of Environment and Forestry (ed.), national greenhouse-gas inventory system (SIGN-SMART). Ministry of Environment and Forestry, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
16National Disaster Management Agency, BNPB (ed.), Indonesian Disaster Data and Information (DIBI). BNPB, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; the page returned no data at evidence close. Observation year none bound. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://dibi.bnpb.go.id/back

Indonesia 2026
Chapter 7

The 2027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due at the Q1 2027 cut.

5 min read0 figures6 tables2 notesNR-COUNTRY-IDN-2026-BASELINE

7.1Questions for the operational series

A-01
How would a flood and landslide sequence across rice-growing islands cut roads, power, markets and harvests together?
INI-IDN-CLI-01 · island lifelines; first output: dependency graph for two island groups.
A-02
How deep are fuel, coal and grid reserves against a supply or price shock?
INI-IDN-ENE-02 · power system resilience; first output: stock-and-route register.
A-03
How exposed are rice, maize and wheat supply to concurrent domestic and import shocks?
INI-IDN-FOO-03 · food import exposure; first output: commodity dependence table.
A-04
How do stunting, ageing and urbanisation change service demand across provinces?
INI-IDN-HLT-04 · population and nutrition; first output: provincial demand baseline.
A-05
Where do flood, landslide and earthquake losses fall on the uninsured and on public budgets?
INI-IDN-FIN-05 · protection gap; first output: peril-by-province loss table.
A-06
How do river basins and reservoirs perform under more intense rainfall and drought?
INI-IDN-WAT-01 · workstream; first output: basin performance note.
A-07
How do land subsidence and sea-level exposure in the capital region combine with flood risk?
To be admitted in Q1 2027; first output: scoping note.
A-08
Which capabilities have been tested in real disasters, and which are only planned?
National capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for admission at the Q1 2027 alignment. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

Table 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
ID	Object	Kind	Question	State
INI-IDN-CLI-01	Island lifelines under flood and landslide	Initiative	A-01	PROPOSED
INI-IDN-ENE-02	Power system resilience and fuel dependence	Initiative	A-02	PROPOSED
INI-IDN-FOO-03	Food and grain import exposure	Initiative	A-03	PROPOSED
INI-IDN-HLT-04	Population, nutrition and service demand	Initiative	A-04	PROPOSED
INI-IDN-FIN-05	Disaster protection gap	Initiative	A-05	PROPOSED
PRJ-IDN-CLI-01a	Two-island-group lifeline dependency graph	Project	A-01	PROPOSED
MSN-IDN-2027-01	Flood, landslide and harvest Universe mission	Mission	A-01	Candidate

7.3The pathway

Indonesia is the national pathway through which the Nexus operating system will run in Indonesia from 2027. At baseline the pathway is designed and its records are prepared; its councils and working groups are constituted from Q1 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next, nothing more.

01
One National Agenda
bounded national questions for the year
DRAFT 2027 · agenda review at the Q1 alignment
02
National Desk
coordination, records, routing and continuity
DESIGNED · constituted in Q1 2027
03
National Model
the country as a system of systems
v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with the first Foundry cut
04
National Portfolio
risks, capabilities, initiatives, projects, missions
7 PROPOSED · admission at the Q1 alignment
05
Foundry
continuous computational environment
PREPARED · first sealed cut NQ-IDN-2027-Q1
06
Reports
quarterly and annual publication
BASELINE ISSUED · Q1 2027 · State & Agenda
07
Universe
annual proving environment
CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate set in 2027
08
Evidence and correction
after-action, correction and renewal
OPEN · first correction cycle in Q2 2027

7.4Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission

01
Mandate
02
Core Build · 1 month
03
Action · 1 week
04
Evidence seal
05
Portfolio correction
06
Next mandate

Table 7.2Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission
Item	Record	State	Timing
F1	Annual mandate record	PLANNED	after the Q2 2027 alignment
F2	Core Build record	PLANNED	one month before the exercise
F3	Exercise evidence	PLANNED	during the Action week
F4	Decision packets	PLANNED	exercise state only
F5	Proof receipts	PLANNED	scoped to each recorded check
F6	After-action report	PLANNED	within one quarter
F7	Upgrade docket	PLANNED	routed to the Portfolio
F8	Portfolio renewal	PLANNED	Q4 2027 annual edition
F9	Public synthesis	PLANNED	public-safe extracts only

Mission

ID: MSN-IDN-2027-01 · Flood, landslide and harvest Universe mission
Role spine: Leadership sponsor (NLC) · Institutional anchor (NNC) · Mission lead (NWG)
Receiving actors: to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

Table 7.3Handoffs and routing
Finding	Routed to	Purpose	Class
CLI-001 · emissions	public record	reference for the 2027 series	PUBLIC
ENE-003 · power mix	INI-IDN-ENE-02	power system resilience	PUBLIC
FOO-005 · paddy	INI-IDN-FOO-03	import exposure	PUBLIC
CLI-007 · Sumatra floods	INI-IDN-CLI-01	island lifeline graph	PUBLIC
HLT-008 · stunting	INI-IDN-HLT-04	population and nutrition	PUBLIC
HLT-009 · population	INI-IDN-HLT-04	provincial demand baseline	PUBLIC
FIN-011 · economy	INI-IDN-FIN-05 · key F review	protection gap	PUBLIC
SYS-012 · compound pathway	MSN-IDN-2027-01	Universe candidate	CONSORTIUM

Table 7.4Routing rules by publication class
Class	Where it goes	Who can see it
PUBLIC	the published edition and its evidence bundle	anyone
CONSORTIUM	governed rooms of the national pathway	consortium members under agreement
CONTROLLED	need-to-know channels	named competent actors only

7.6Feeds and signal register

Table 7.5Feeds watched from Q1 2027
Feed	Producer	Latency	Feeds into
Weather warnings and climate data	national meteorological agency (BMKG)	real time	CLI findings
Disaster records	national disaster management agency (BNPB)	per event	CLI-007
Electricity supply and demand	state electricity company (PLN) and ministry	per publisher schedule	ENE findings
Statistical releases	Statistics Indonesia (BPS)	per release calendar	HLT-009
Health survey and nutrition data	Ministry of Health	per survey	HLT-008
Crop monitoring	FAO GIEWS	per brief	FOO-005
Electricity data	Ember	annual	ENE-003

Escalation routes

none · keep monitoring
research question
project
risk object
quarterly publication
signal report

Table 7.6Signals at baseline
ID	Signal	Corroboration	Systems	Route
SIG-IDN-001	Emissions excluding land use rose in 2023 and 2024⁴	CORROBORATED	CLI · ENE	risk object RSK-IDN-ENE-003
SIG-IDN-002	Floods and landslides hit three Sumatran provinces¹⁰	CORROBORATED	CLI · FOO	initiative A-01
SIG-IDN-003	Wheat imports forecast near a record¹⁰	CORROBORATED	FOO · TRD	risk object RSK-IDN-FOO-002

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

4World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: total greenhouse-gas emissions excluding LULUCF (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), net energy imports and access to electricity, Indonesia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/IDN/indicator/EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5?format=jsonback
10Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Indonesia, reference date 29 January 2026. FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025 (production) and 2025/26 (imports). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.fao.org/giews/countrybrief/country.jsp?code=IDNback

Indonesia 2026
Chapter 8

Systems in depth

One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

7 min read0 figures5 tables17 notesNR-COUNTRY-IDN-2026-BASELINE

8.1Water, the baseline system chapter

Safely managed drinking water, water loss and flood records are not bound in this edition. The one bound series shows annual withdrawals at 11.0% of internal resources in 2022, a value the series carries unchanged from 2018.

11.0%

withdrawals, share of internal resources, 2022⁵

19.4%

urban population in slums, 2022⁶

Not bound

safely managed drinking water⁵⁵

Table 8.1State at baseline
Component	State	Evidence	Status
Withdrawals	11.0% of internal resources; series flat since 2018	⁵	Reported
Drinking water	not bound; source: WHO and UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme	⁵⁵	NOT BOUND
Floods	not bound; source: disaster records	¹⁶	NOT BOUND
Infrastructure	not bound; source: ministry asset records	²⁴	NOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

WAT → HLT drinking water and sanitation
CLI → WAT heavy rain and drought
WAT → FOO irrigation and flooding
INF → WAT pumping and power

Evidence to bind in 2027

safely managed drinking water
flood loss records

8.2Energy, the baseline system chapter

Fossil fuels supplied 82% of electricity in 2024 and hydro 7.4%, yet Indonesia was a net energy exporter.

82%

fossil share of electricity, 2024⁸

7.4%

hydro share, 2024⁸

−92.8%

net energy imports; negative means exporter, 2024⁴

Table 8.2State at baseline
Component	State	Evidence	Status
Power mix	fossil 82%, clean 18%	⁸	Reported
Wind and solar	0.5% of generation	⁸	Reported
Access	99.9% of the population with electricity	⁴	Reported
Generation by fuel and reserves	not bound; source: ministry energy statistics and the supply plan	²⁰²¹	NOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

TRD → ENE fuel trade
ENE → FOO fuel and fertiliser
CLI → ENE hydro and peak demand
ENE → WAT pumping

Evidence to bind in 2027

generation by fuel
grid reserve margins and fuel stocks

8.3Food and agrifood, the baseline system chapter

The 2025 paddy crop was officially estimated at 59 million tonnes, and wheat imports are forecast near a record, so food security is a harvest and a trade question.

59million t

paddy production, 2025¹⁰

15.3million t

maize production, 2025¹⁰

11.5million t

wheat imports forecast, 2025/26¹⁰

Table 8.3State at baseline
Component	State	Evidence	Status
Paddy	59 million tonnes, about 9% above average	¹⁰	Reported
Maize	15.3 million tonnes, about 5% above average	¹⁰	Reported
Wheat	near-record imports forecast	¹⁰	Reported
Self-sufficiency	not bound; source: national food balance	²²	NOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

TRD → FOO import dependence
ENE → FOO fuel and fertiliser
CLI → FOO floods and rainfall

Evidence to bind in 2027

self-sufficiency ratios
import concentration by origin

8.4Health and One Health, the baseline system chapter

Stunting affected 22.0% of children under five in 2023, and the population is young: 7.5% were aged 65 or over in 2025.

22.0%

stunting, children under five, 2023⁶

71.3years

life expectancy at birth, 2024²

2.7% of GDP

health expenditure, 2023⁶

Table 8.4State at baseline
Component	State	Evidence	Status
Nutrition	stunting 22.0%, down from 30% in 2018	⁶	Reported
Population	7.5% aged 65 or over; 59.4% urban	²	Reported
Spending	current health expenditure 2.7% of GDP	⁶	Reported
Surveillance	not bound; source: Ministry of Health survey and surveillance records	²³	NOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

CLI → HLT heat, flood and haze
WAT → HLT drinking water and sanitation
INF → HLT access to care

Evidence to bind in 2027

disease and heat surveillance
care continuity in disasters

8.5Biodiversity and ecosystems, the baseline system chapter

Forest covered 50.7% of land in 2024 and protected areas covered 12.0% in 2025, against a global target of 30% by 2030. Deforestation, peat and condition records are not bound.

50.7%

forest area, share of land, 2024⁵

12.0%

protected land, 2025⁵

30%

global target by 2030⁴⁰

Table 8.5State at baseline
Component	State	Evidence	Status
Forest	50.7% of land area	⁵	Reported
Protection	12.0% of land	⁵	Reported
Carbon stocks	peer-reviewed work assesses Indonesian mangroves as a large carbon store	⁵²	Reported
Deforestation and peat	not bound; source: forest loss and national inventory records	¹⁹²⁵	NOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

BIO → WAT forest and watershed regulation
BIO → FOO fisheries and pollination
CLI → BIO fire and haze

Evidence to bind in 2027

forest loss and peat records
condition outside protected areas

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: forest area, terrestrial protected areas and annual freshwater withdrawals, Indonesia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025 (protected areas), 2024 (forest area) and 2022 (withdrawals). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/IDN/indicator/ER.LND.PTLD.ZS?format=jsonback
6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: prevalence of stunting, current health expenditure and population living in slums, Indonesia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023 (stunting, health expenditure) and 2022 (slums). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/IDN/indicator/SH.STA.STNT.ZS?format=jsonback
55WHO and UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme (eds.), Progress on household drinking water, sanitation and hygiene 2000–2024. WHO and UNICEF, Geneva and New York, 2025. Source for a designed gap; Indonesia values not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
16National Disaster Management Agency, BNPB (ed.), Indonesian Disaster Data and Information (DIBI). BNPB, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; the page returned no data at evidence close. Observation year none bound. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://dibi.bnpb.go.id/back
24Ministry of Public Works (ed.), water resources and infrastructure records. Ministry of Public Works, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
8Ember (ed.), “Indonesia” country page, electricity generation mix. Ember, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://ember-energy.org/countries-and-regions/indonesia/back
4World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: total greenhouse-gas emissions excluding LULUCF (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), net energy imports and access to electricity, Indonesia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/IDN/indicator/EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5?format=jsonback
20Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ed.), Handbook of Energy and Economic Statistics of Indonesia. Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
21PLN (ed.), Electricity Supply Business Plan (RUPTL). PLN, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; the plan text was not read at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
10Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Indonesia, reference date 29 January 2026. FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025 (production) and 2025/26 (imports). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.fao.org/giews/countrybrief/country.jsp?code=IDNback
22National Food Agency (ed.), food balance and self-sufficiency statistics. National Food Agency, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
2World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: population aged 65 and above, urban population, life expectancy at birth and total fertility rate, Indonesia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025 (65 and above, urban) and 2024 (life expectancy, fertility). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/IDN/indicator/SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS?format=jsonback
23Ministry of Health (ed.), Indonesia Health Survey and nutrition survey results. Ministry of Health, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
40Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Observation year 2022.back
52D. Murdiyarso, J. Purbopuspito, J. B. Kauffman et al., “The potential of Indonesian mangrove forests for global climate change mitigation,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 5, pp. 1089–1092, 2015. Observation year 2015.back
19Ministry of Environment and Forestry (ed.), national greenhouse-gas inventory system (SIGN-SMART). Ministry of Environment and Forestry, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
25Global Nature Watch (ed.), “Indonesia deforestation rates and statistics.” Global Nature Watch. Source for a designed gap; the page returned a title only at evidence close. Observation year none bound. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://globalnaturewatch.org/dashboards/country/IDN/back

Indonesia 2026
Annex A

Methodology

How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.

9 min read0 figures12 tables6 notesNR-COUNTRY-IDN-2026-BASELINE

A.1Methods

The baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.

Table A.1Methods
No.	Derivation	Calculation	Result
(1)	Change in emissions excluding land use, 2023 to 2024	1,323.8 − 1,261.3	62.5 Mt (+5.0%)
(2)	Change in emissions excluding land use, 2022 to 2024	1,323.8 − 1,181.3	142.5 Mt (+12.1%)
(3)	Clean electricity other than hydro, wind and solar	18 − 7.4 − 0.5	10.1 points
(4)	Output per person, 2025	1,445.6 billion ÷ 285.72 million	≈ US$5,060

Table A.2Coupling strength scale (matrix and model card)
Strength	Definition
STRONG	a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system’s service or output within one season
MODERATE	an effect is documented but buffered or slower
WEAK	an effect is plausible but not documented at national scale

Table A.3Status grammar
Label	Rule
Reported	value as issued by its source, with year
Inferred	reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement
Estimated	Nexus analytical value with stated method
Scenario	conditional on stated assumptions
Expert input	structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence

A.2Model card, National Model v0

Model ID: MDL-IDN-NATIONAL · v0.1
Purpose: represent Indonesia as coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems with forcing and transmission layers
Family: graph-based system of systems
Inputs: the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data
Method: expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from evidence and analogue events
Validation: none yet, first validation against Q1 2027 Foundry evidence
Uncertainty: qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements
Domain of validity: national scale; not for province or asset-level use
Reproducibility: strength table and sources published in this edition

20couplings

typed in v0

9strong

documented within one season

7moderate

documented, buffered

4weak

plausible, undocumented

A.3The baseline evidence cut

Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Model runs begin with the first Foundry cut in Q1 2027.

Cut ID: NQ-IDN-2026-Q0-1
Type: baseline documentary cut
Resolution policy: pinned · as of 30 September 2026
Sources pinned: 57 cited sources, each at the edition and retrieval date in the references
Model runs: none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method
Digest: computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record
Supersedes: nothing, first cut of the series
Superseded by: NQ-IDN-2027-Q1-1 at the Q1 2027 close

Lineage

01
source edition
02
pinned citation
03
finding
04
page
05
publication record

Table A.4From the baseline cut to the first Foundry cut
Element	Baseline 2026	Q1 2027
Sources	cited publications, pinned by edition	qualified source bindings with versions
Analysis	stated methods and editorial estimates	typed analysis specifications
Models	National Model v0 specification	model runs with receipts
Findings	twelve baseline findings	findings re-bound to the cut
Review	five passes scheduled	five passes on the exact digest

A.4Evidence age and coverage

A 2026 edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.

Table A.5Evidence age and coverage
Indicator	Observed	Released	Cadence	Next release
Population and GDP	2025	read 3 Nov 2026	annual	annual
Emissions excluding land use	2024	read 3 Nov 2026	annual	annual
Electricity shares	2024	date not stated	annual	annual
Climate assessment	2026	update 28 Sep 2026	periodic	periodic
Crop outlook	2025/26	29 Jan 2026	periodic	periodic
IMF growth projection	2026	Jul 2026	periodic	periodic
Stunting	2023	read 3 Nov 2026	survey	next survey
Disaster losses	not bound	none	annual	annual
Safely managed water	not bound	none	periodic	periodic

Table A.6Coverage by system at baseline
System	Coverage	Thinnest dimension
Geophysical hazard	THIN	earthquake, volcano and tsunami records by province
Climate forcing	PARTIAL	recent extremes and losses
Energy	PARTIAL	generation by fuel; reserve margins
Food	PARTIAL	self-sufficiency; import concentration
Health	PARTIAL	surveillance; care access
Water	THIN	supply, loss and flood
Biodiversity	THIN	deforestation; peat; condition
Digital	THIN	dependency mapping

A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources

Issued by the World Bank from compiled national and international sources. Annual. Role: binds CLI-001 and ENE-004. The series excludes land use, and the underlying national inventory was not read.

EVD-IDN-001

World Bank WDI emissions series⁴

Issued by the FAO Global Information and Early Warning System, reference date 29 January 2026. Periodic. Role: binds FOO-005, FOO-006 and CLI-007. The brief reports no import dependency ratio.

EVD-IDN-002

FAO country brief¹⁰

Table A.7Quality dimensions at baseline
Dimension	EVD-IDN-001	EVD-IDN-002
Completeness	national totals, no land use	crop outlook by crop
Timeliness	about one year after the year	issued within the marketing year
Revision	not stated on the page	revised per brief
Method transparency	published indicator metadata	brief text
External validation	compiled from national and UN sources	expert monitoring

Evidence cards to follow in Q1 2027

National inventory system¹⁹: totals including land use
Energy statistics handbook²⁰: generation by fuel
Food balance²²: self-sufficiency definitions
Disaster records¹⁶: counting rules

A.6Publication acceptance record

Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.

Table A.8Publication acceptance record
Group	Area	Items	Pass	N/A	Pending
D1	Identity and scope	8	8	0	0
D2	Source and data	12	9	1	2
D3	Analysis and models	12	3	8	1
D4	Findings and claims	9	8	0	1
D5	Figures, tables, maps	10	6	2	2
D6	Editorial and citations	10	8	0	2
D7	Review and approval	13	0	0	13
D8	Artefact and design	12	7	0	5
D9	Registry and release	9	0	0	9

Publication gate

Conditions met: 14 of 23 at evidence close
Blocking problems: none recorded
Open conditions: reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer

Not applicable at baseline

Model runs: first runs in Q1 2027
Maps: plates in Q2 2027
Waivers: none

A.7Status words

Table A.9The status every value carries
Status	What it means
Observed	Measured directly and published by the source.
Reported	Published statistics of an official or institutional source.
Declared	Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured.
Estimated	A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A.
Modelled	Produced by a stated model from cited inputs.
Inferred	Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured.
Forecast	A projection by the cited source.
Simulated	A simulation result under stated assumptions.
Scenario	A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction.
Expert input	Expert judgement, recorded with its basis.
Candidate	Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence.
Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject.

A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected

Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.

Step	What happens	Source
01 Evidence arrives from the pillars	Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site’s.
02 The cut is sealed	On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on.
03 The edition is assembled	The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide.
04 The keys turn	At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward.
05 The gate opens	A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit.
06 Signed and deposited	The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI.
07 Published on its desk’s site	Only then does the edition show as published on its desk’s Reports site, and the Collection lists it as a part.
08 Corrections go to Standards	Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut.

A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).

Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.

A.9Glossary and abbreviations

Table A.10Series terms
Term	Meaning
Baseline Edition	the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series
WEFH+B	water, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the national nexus core
Coupling	a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another
Protection gap	the share of losses not covered by insurance
Capability ladder	LISTED → EXISTS → ADEQUATE → TESTED → DEMONSTRATED
EQL	evidence-quality level, 1–5
Evidence cut	a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions
NNC · NLC · NWG	National Nexus Consortium · National Leadership Council · National Working Groups

Table A.11Abbreviations used in this edition
Abbreviation	Expansion
BMKG	Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency
BNPB	National Disaster Management Agency
BPS	Statistics Indonesia
CAT	Climate Action Tracker
CBD	Convention on Biological Diversity
FAO	Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
GIEWS	Global Information and Early Warning System
IMF	International Monetary Fund
JMP	Joint Monitoring Programme for Water Supply, Sanitation and Hygiene
LULUCF	land use, land-use change and forestry
NDC	nationally determined contribution
OECD	Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
OJK	Financial Services Authority
PLN	state electricity company
UNDRR	United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction
WDI	World Development Indicators

A.10Technical annex

Table A.12Technical annex
Item	Annex	Contents	Status
A.1	Indicator definitions	the baseline indicator set, with units and sources	IN THIS EDITION
A.2	Coupling strengths	the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale	IN THIS EDITION
A.3	Scenario specification	SCN-IDN-FLD-01 assumptions and signposts	IN THIS EDITION
A.4	Capability placements	rung evidence for fifteen functions	IN THIS EDITION
A.5	Model diagnostics	first runs and validation	Q1 2027
A.6	Sensitivity analyses	influence of coupling strengths	Q2 2027
A.7	Provincial notes	atlas cards for every province	Q2 2027
A.8	Review statements	pass-by-pass review record	AT RELEASE

A.1 · indicator definition, emissions excluding land use

Construct: annual greenhouse-gas emissions without land use, land-use change and forestry
Unit: Mt CO₂e, as published by the World Bank
Scope: calendar year, national
Source: World Bank WDI⁴
Revision: not stated on the page
Known limits: the land-use sector, a large part of national emissions in earlier inventories, is outside the series

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

4World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: total greenhouse-gas emissions excluding LULUCF (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), net energy imports and access to electricity, Indonesia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/IDN/indicator/EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5?format=jsonback
10Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Indonesia, reference date 29 January 2026. FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025 (production) and 2025/26 (imports). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.fao.org/giews/countrybrief/country.jsp?code=IDNback
19Ministry of Environment and Forestry (ed.), national greenhouse-gas inventory system (SIGN-SMART). Ministry of Environment and Forestry, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
20Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ed.), Handbook of Energy and Economic Statistics of Indonesia. Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
22National Food Agency (ed.), food balance and self-sufficiency statistics. National Food Agency, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
16National Disaster Management Agency, BNPB (ed.), Indonesian Disaster Data and Information (DIBI). BNPB, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; the page returned no data at evidence close. Observation year none bound. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://dibi.bnpb.go.id/back

Indonesia 2026
Annex B

Data appendix

The indicator set with its sources, the source registers, the licences of every kind of material and the formats of the edition.

9 min read0 figures7 tables19 notesNR-COUNTRY-IDN-2026-BASELINE

B.1The indicator set

Table B.1Baseline indicator set
Indicator	Value	Unit	Year	State	Source
Population	285.7	million	2025	Reported	¹
Aged 65 or over	7.5	%	2025	Reported	²
Urban population	59.4	%	2025	Reported	²
Life expectancy at birth	71.3	years	2024	Reported	²
Total fertility	2.1	births per woman	2024	Reported	²
GDP, current prices	1.45	US$ trillion	2025	Reported	³
GDP growth	5.1	%	2025	Reported	³
GNI per capita, Atlas method	5,120	US$	2025	Reported	³
Poverty at national lines	8.5	%	2025	Reported	³
Emissions excluding land use	1,323.8	Mt CO₂e	2024	Reported	⁴
Net energy imports	−92.8	% of energy use	2024	Reported	⁴
Access to electricity	99.9	%	2024	Reported	⁴
Fossil share of electricity	82	%	2024	Reported	⁸
Hydro share of electricity	7.4	%	2024	Reported	⁸
Wind and solar share	0.5	%	2024	Reported	⁸
Paddy production	59	million t	2025	Reported	¹⁰
Maize production	15.3	million t	2025	Reported	¹⁰
Wheat imports, forecast	11.5	million t	2025/26	Reported	¹⁰
Forest area	50.7	% of land	2024	Reported	⁵
Protected land	12.0	% of land	2025	Reported	⁵
Stunting, children under five	22.0	%	2023	Reported	⁶
Health expenditure	2.7	% of GDP	2023	Reported	⁶
Projected growth	5.0	%	2026	Reported	⁷
Change in emissions, 2023 to 2024	+5.0	%	2024	Estimated	⁴
Clean electricity other than hydro, wind and solar	10.1	points	2024	Estimated	⁸

Indicators, CSV Indicators, JSON

B.2National source register

The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.

Domains bound by the register

Table B.3National source register
Source	Category	Coverage	Period	Cadence	Role
World Bank country data¹²³⁴⁵⁶	international organisation	national	2022–2025	annual	profile
IMF country record⁷	international organisation	national	2026	periodic	FIN
Ember country data⁸	research organisation	national	2024	annual	ENE
Climate Action Tracker⁹	research consortium	national	2026	periodic	CLI
FAO country brief¹⁰	UN agency	national	2026	periodic	FOO
Disaster records¹⁶	government agency	national	not bound	annual	CLI
National statistics¹⁷	national statistics	national	not bound	annual	profile
GHG inventory system¹⁹	ministry	national	not bound	annual	CLI
Energy statistics²⁰	ministry statistics	national	not bound	annual	ENE
Food balance²²	government agency	national	not bound	annual	FOO
Health survey²³	ministry	national	not bound	periodic	HLT

B.3Regional reading, Indonesia by region

Map plates for every province follow in Q2 2027, when boundary sources and public-safe resolutions are bound. This page gives the regional reading in table form.

National context¹²¹⁴

285.7million

population, 2025

59.4%

urban share, 2025

38provinces

administrative units

7.5%

aged 65 or over, 2025

Table B.4Regional reading, Indonesia by region
Region	Principal hazards	Systems most exposed	Baseline evidence
Sumatra	heavy rain, floods, landslides	food, roads, power	Sumatra floods, late 2025¹⁰
Java	floods, subsidence, geophysical hazards	cities, power, food	Jakarta subsidence⁵¹
Kalimantan	fire, haze, floods	forests, water, health	haze analysis⁵³
Sulawesi	not bound	not bound	event record not bound¹⁶
Nusa Tenggara and Maluku	not bound	not bound	event record not bound¹⁶
Papua	not bound	not bound	event record not bound¹⁶

B.4Atlas card, Sumatra (Aceh, North Sumatra, West Sumatra)

island group
rice and maize
flood and landslide
late 2025

Systems in view: food, roads, power and health
Defining events: floods and landslides in late December 2025 and early January 2026; below-average rain in November and early December disrupted planting¹⁰
Couplings: CLI → WAT → INF; CLI → WAT → FOO
Capability evidence: not bound
Gaps: road and power restoration times; casualty records; clinic access
Agenda items: A-01 · A-04

The FAO reports that floods and landslides in three provinces caused further crop losses after a disrupted planting season [10].

FOOD

Crop losses

Source: national disaster agency flood records [16]. Blocker: not retrieved by evidence close.

WATER

Not bound

Source: Ministry of Health records [23]. Blocker: not retrieved by evidence close.

HEALTH AND CARE

Not bound

B.5Indonesia system card

The card through which Indonesia appears in the Asia regional edition and the global series. It summarises; it does not rank.

Table B.5Indonesia system card
System	Baseline state	Coupling to watch	Coverage
Water	indicators not bound	flood and drought	THIN
Energy	82% fossil electricity; net exporter	supply and price shocks	PARTIAL
Food	paddy 59 million t; wheat imports high	harvest and import shocks	PARTIAL
Health	stunting 22.0%; young population	service demand and access	PARTIAL
Biodiversity	forest 50.7%; protected land 12.0%	land use and fire	THIN

Context

Archetype: archipelago economy, energy exporter and grain importer
Population: 285.7 million (2025)¹
Trade: net energy exporter; imports wheat⁴¹⁰
Climate effort: critically insufficient overall⁹

Indonesia’s card sits beside its neighbours’; shared basins, grids, corridors and supply chains are read as one regional system.

ASIA REGIONAL EDITION

One regional system

Indonesian evidence enters the water, energy, food, finance and climate sector reports through the same finding identifiers, so a correction travels everywhere at once.

GLOBAL SECTOR SERIES

Same findings, same IDs

In the global edition Indonesia is read against peer distributions and thresholds, never placed in a league table.

GLOBAL FLAGSHIP

Peers, not ranks

B.6Licences

Table B.6Licences of each kind of material
Material	Licence
Text	CC BY 4.0
Data	on the licence of each source; Nexus tables CC BY 4.0
Figures	Nexus figures CC BY 4.0; third-party as credited
Maps	boundary source and licence printed on each plate
Metadata	CC0 1.0, as Zenodo publishes it
Third-party data, figures and text	The source’s own licence, credited where it is used; never relicensed
Nexus-authored text, tables and figures: CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0). Map plates print their boundary source and licence.

B.7Formats and provenance

Table B.7This edition in every format
Format	Kind	State	What it is	Identifier
Web edition	HTML	On this site	Draft in stewardship review; every value resolves to its source.	NR-COUNTRY-IDN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Print edition	PDF	At release	A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF, signed with the web edition at release.	NR-COUNTRY-IDN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Indicator data	CSV · JSON	On this site	25 indicators with unit, year, status and source; the machine-readable copy ships with the evidence bundle at release.	NR-COUNTRY-IDN-2026-BASELINE data release v1
Figures	SVG · PNG	On this site	4 on the web edition: headline figure, figure 1.3, coupling instrument, capability ladder.	FIG-COUNTRY-IDN-2026-BASELINE-*
Slides	PDF	Not recorded	No slide deck is recorded for this edition.
Evidence brief	HTML · PDF	Not recorded	No evidence brief is recorded for this edition.
Dataset with DOI	DataCite	At release	Concept and version DOI are minted at deposit; none is recorded yet.

Provenance

Edition pack: The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built
Evidence cut: NQ-IDN-2026-Q0-1, closed 30 September 2026
Reproducibility: sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters
Self-check: 14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release
Review: five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)
Publisher of record: GCRI for the Nexus Consortium
Corrections: Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), Indonesia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/IDN/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL?format=jsonback
2World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: population aged 65 and above, urban population, life expectancy at birth and total fertility rate, Indonesia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025 (65 and above, urban) and 2024 (life expectancy, fertility). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/IDN/indicator/SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS?format=jsonback
3World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: GDP, GDP growth, GNI per capita (Atlas method), poverty headcount at national lines and agriculture value added, Indonesia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/IDN/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?format=jsonback
4World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: total greenhouse-gas emissions excluding LULUCF (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), net energy imports and access to electricity, Indonesia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/IDN/indicator/EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5?format=jsonback
8Ember (ed.), “Indonesia” country page, electricity generation mix. Ember, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://ember-energy.org/countries-and-regions/indonesia/back
10Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Indonesia, reference date 29 January 2026. FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025 (production) and 2025/26 (imports). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.fao.org/giews/countrybrief/country.jsp?code=IDNback
5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: forest area, terrestrial protected areas and annual freshwater withdrawals, Indonesia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025 (protected areas), 2024 (forest area) and 2022 (withdrawals). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/IDN/indicator/ER.LND.PTLD.ZS?format=jsonback
6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: prevalence of stunting, current health expenditure and population living in slums, Indonesia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023 (stunting, health expenditure) and 2022 (slums). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/IDN/indicator/SH.STA.STNT.ZS?format=jsonback
7International Monetary Fund (ed.), Indonesia country page: Article IV consultation of January 2026 and July 2026 World Economic Outlook Update projections. IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2026 projection. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/IDNback
9Climate Action Tracker (ed.), “Indonesia” country assessment. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute; the page lists an update dated 28 September 2026. Observation year 2024 (renewables) and 2035 (target gap). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/indonesia/back
16National Disaster Management Agency, BNPB (ed.), Indonesian Disaster Data and Information (DIBI). BNPB, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; the page returned no data at evidence close. Observation year none bound. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://dibi.bnpb.go.id/back
17Statistics Indonesia, BPS (ed.), national statistical releases (population, social and economic series). BPS, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; the site returned a 403 error at evidence close. Observation year none bound. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.bps.go.id/enback
19Ministry of Environment and Forestry (ed.), national greenhouse-gas inventory system (SIGN-SMART). Ministry of Environment and Forestry, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
20Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ed.), Handbook of Energy and Economic Statistics of Indonesia. Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
22National Food Agency (ed.), food balance and self-sufficiency statistics. National Food Agency, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
23Ministry of Health (ed.), Indonesia Health Survey and nutrition survey results. Ministry of Health, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
14Wikipedia contributors (eds.), “Indonesia.” Wikimedia Foundation. Observation year 2026. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indonesia. Used only for the count of 38 provinces; the primary source, the Ministry of Home Affairs, was not read.back
51H. Z. Abidin, H. Andreas, I. Gumilar et al., “Land subsidence of Jakarta (Indonesia) and its relation with urban development,” Natural Hazards, vol. 59, pp. 1753–1771, 2011. Observation year 2011.back
53J. Koplitz, L. J. Mickley, M. E. Marlier et al., “Public health impacts of the severe haze in Equatorial Asia in September–October 2015,” Environmental Research Letters, vol. 11, 094023, 2016. Observation year 2015.back

Indonesia 2026
Annex C

References and record

Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

14 min read0 figures1 table0 notesNR-COUNTRY-IDN-2026-BASELINE

C.157 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

1World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), Indonesia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/IDN/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL?format=json Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6
2World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: population aged 65 and above, urban population, life expectancy at birth and total fertility rate, Indonesia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025 (65 and above, urban) and 2024 (life expectancy, fertility). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/IDN/indicator/SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS?format=json Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
3World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: GDP, GDP growth, GNI per capita (Atlas method), poverty headcount at national lines and agriculture value added, Indonesia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/IDN/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?format=json Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 6
4World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: total greenhouse-gas emissions excluding LULUCF (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), net energy imports and access to electricity, Indonesia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/IDN/indicator/EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5?format=json Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: forest area, terrestrial protected areas and annual freshwater withdrawals, Indonesia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025 (protected areas), 2024 (forest area) and 2022 (withdrawals). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/IDN/indicator/ER.LND.PTLD.ZS?format=json Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8
6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: prevalence of stunting, current health expenditure and population living in slums, Indonesia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023 (stunting, health expenditure) and 2022 (slums). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/IDN/indicator/SH.STA.STNT.ZS?format=json Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
7International Monetary Fund (ed.), Indonesia country page: Article IV consultation of January 2026 and July 2026 World Economic Outlook Update projections. IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2026 projection. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/IDN Cited in the summary, chapter 3, chapter 6
8Ember (ed.), “Indonesia” country page, electricity generation mix. Ember, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://ember-energy.org/countries-and-regions/indonesia/ Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
9Climate Action Tracker (ed.), “Indonesia” country assessment. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute; the page lists an update dated 28 September 2026. Observation year 2024 (renewables) and 2035 (target gap). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/indonesia/ Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
10Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Indonesia, reference date 29 January 2026. FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025 (production) and 2025/26 (imports). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.fao.org/giews/countrybrief/country.jsp?code=IDN Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
11Government of the Republic of Indonesia (ed.), Republic of Indonesia’s Second Nationally Determined Contribution. Submission to the UNFCCC, 2025. Observation year 2025. Submission text not read; its existence is taken from [12]. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6
12Climate Change Laws of the World (ed.), “Indonesia Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC3.0)” and “Republic of Indonesia’s Second NDC,” document records. Grantham Research Institute and Climate Policy Radar. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://climate-laws.org/geographies/indonesia Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6
13Government of the Republic of Indonesia (ed.), Enhanced Nationally Determined Contribution. Submission to the UNFCCC, 2022. Observation year 2022. Not opened at evidence close. Cited in chapter 6
14Wikipedia contributors (eds.), “Indonesia.” Wikimedia Foundation. Observation year 2026. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indonesia. Used only for the count of 38 provinces; the primary source, the Ministry of Home Affairs, was not read. Cited in the summary
15Government of the Republic of Indonesia (ed.), Law No. 24 of 2007 on Disaster Management. Jakarta, 2007. Observation year 2007 (enactment). Current consolidated text not read. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
16National Disaster Management Agency, BNPB (ed.), Indonesian Disaster Data and Information (DIBI). BNPB, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; the page returned no data at evidence close. Observation year none bound. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://dibi.bnpb.go.id/ Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
17Statistics Indonesia, BPS (ed.), national statistical releases (population, social and economic series). BPS, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; the site returned a 403 error at evidence close. Observation year none bound. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.bps.go.id/en Cited in the summary, chapter 4
18Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency, BMKG (ed.), climate and geophysical monitoring records. BMKG, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4
19Ministry of Environment and Forestry (ed.), national greenhouse-gas inventory system (SIGN-SMART). Ministry of Environment and Forestry, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
20Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ed.), Handbook of Energy and Economic Statistics of Indonesia. Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 8
21PLN (ed.), Electricity Supply Business Plan (RUPTL). PLN, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; the plan text was not read at evidence close. Observation year none bound. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
22National Food Agency (ed.), food balance and self-sufficiency statistics. National Food Agency, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 8
23Ministry of Health (ed.), Indonesia Health Survey and nutrition survey results. Ministry of Health, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 8
24Ministry of Public Works (ed.), water resources and infrastructure records. Ministry of Public Works, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 8
25Global Nature Watch (ed.), “Indonesia deforestation rates and statistics.” Global Nature Watch. Source for a designed gap; the page returned a title only at evidence close. Observation year none bound. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://globalnaturewatch.org/dashboards/country/IDN/ Cited in chapter 8
26Financial Services Authority, OJK (ed.), Taxonomy for Sustainable Finance in Indonesia. OJK, Jakarta. Observation year 2024 (latest edition known). Status and text not read at evidence close. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
27Financial Services Authority, OJK (ed.), Regulation No. 51/POJK.03/2017 on the Implementation of Sustainable Finance. OJK, Jakarta, 2017. Observation year 2017 (enactment). Current consolidated text not read. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
28Government of the Republic of Indonesia (ed.), Presidential Regulation No. 98 of 2021 on the Implementation of Carbon Economic Value. Jakarta, 2021. Observation year 2021. Cited in chapter 6
29Government of the Republic of Indonesia (ed.), Law No. 7 of 2021 on the Harmonisation of Tax Regulations. Jakarta, 2021. Observation year 2021. Cited in chapter 6
30Government of the Republic of Indonesia (ed.), Presidential Regulation No. 112 of 2022 on the Acceleration of Renewable Energy Development for Electricity Supply. Jakarta, 2022. Observation year 2022. Cited in chapter 6
31Government of the Republic of Indonesia (ed.), Law No. 3 of 2022 on the State Capital. Jakarta, 2022. Observation year 2022. Cited in chapter 6
32Government of the Republic of Indonesia (ed.), Law No. 17 of 2019 on Water Resources. Jakarta, 2019. Observation year 2019. Cited in chapter 6
33Government of the Republic of Indonesia (ed.), Law No. 18 of 2012 on Food. Jakarta, 2012. Observation year 2012. Cited in chapter 6
34Government of the Republic of Indonesia (ed.), Law No. 17 of 2023 on Health. Jakarta, 2023. Observation year 2023. Cited in chapter 6
35Indonesia Just Energy Transition Partnership Secretariat (ed.), Comprehensive Investment and Policy Plan. JETP Secretariat, Jakarta, 2023. Observation year 2023. Not opened at evidence close. Cited in chapter 6
36International Energy Agency (ed.), Indonesia 2022: Energy Policy Review. IEA, Paris, 2022. Observation year 2022. Not opened at evidence close. Cited in chapter 6
37International Energy Agency (ed.), Global Energy Review 2025. IEA, Paris, 2025. Observation year 2024. Cited in chapter 6
38H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. Observation year 2023. Cited in chapter 6
39UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Observation year 2015. Cited in chapter 6
40Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Observation year 2022. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
41UNFCCC (ed.), Paris Agreement. United Nations, Paris, 2015. Observation year 2015. Cited in chapter 6
42P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. Observation year 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054 Cited in chapter 6
43J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Observation year 2018. Cited in chapter 6
44S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026.
45S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026.
46OECD (ed.), OECD Economic Surveys: Indonesia 2024. OECD Publishing, Paris, 2024. Observation year 2024. Not opened at evidence close. Cited in chapter 6
47UNDRR (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2025. UNDRR, Geneva, 2025. Observation year 2025. Cited in chapter 6
48World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Asia 2024. WMO, Geneva, 2025. Observation year 2024. Cited in chapter 6
49United Nations Environment Programme (ed.), Emissions Gap Report 2025. UNEP, Nairobi, 2025. Observation year 2025. Cited in chapter 6
50Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026. Observation year 2025. Cited in chapter 6
51H. Z. Abidin, H. Andreas, I. Gumilar et al., “Land subsidence of Jakarta (Indonesia) and its relation with urban development,” Natural Hazards, vol. 59, pp. 1753–1771, 2011. Observation year 2011. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
52D. Murdiyarso, J. Purbopuspito, J. B. Kauffman et al., “The potential of Indonesian mangrove forests for global climate change mitigation,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 5, pp. 1089–1092, 2015. Observation year 2015. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 8
53J. Koplitz, L. J. Mickley, M. E. Marlier et al., “Public health impacts of the severe haze in Equatorial Asia in September–October 2015,” Environmental Research Letters, vol. 11, 094023, 2016. Observation year 2015. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3
54FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2025. FAO, Rome, 2025. Observation year 2024. Not opened at evidence close. Cited in chapter 6
55WHO and UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme (eds.), Progress on household drinking water, sanitation and hygiene 2000–2024. WHO and UNICEF, Geneva and New York, 2025. Source for a designed gap; Indonesia values not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8
56World Bank (ed.), Indonesia Country Climate and Development Report. World Bank, Washington DC, 2023. Observation year 2023. Not opened at evidence close. Cited in chapter 6
57Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), Global Forest Resources Assessment 2025. FAO, Rome, 2025. Observation year 2025. Not opened at evidence close. Cited in chapter 6

C.2Publication record

Publication

Title: Indonesia Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition
Series: Reports · Edition 2026–2030
Edition: Baseline Edition 2026 · inaugural annual
Version: v1.0.0 · draft for stewardship review
Publication ID: NR-COUNTRY-IDN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Evidence close: 30 September 2026
Publication date: October 2026
DOI: concept and version DOI at deposit

Publisher

Publisher of record: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium
Place: Toronto
Editor: Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor
Stewards: GCRI · technical truth · GRF · public meaning · GRA · capital meaning
Licence: text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source
Language: English (en-GB) source edition
Correspondence: Registry correction pathway · editorial office

Colophon

Format: A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF
Typefaces: Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)
Design standard: Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII
Accessibility: tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure
Production: Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version

Table C.1Release path for this version
Step	What happens	When
Draft	editorial self-check complete at evidence close	October 2026
Steward review	five passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N)	Q4 2026
Approval	publication authority approves the exact digest	before release
Deposit	concept and version DOI minted; registry pointer set	at release
Succession	the Q1 2027 edition reports changes against this baseline	Q1 2027

Current version: v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review
Previous edition: none, first edition of the series
Next edition: NR-COUNTRY-IDN-2027-Q1-v1.0.0

Latest version: resolve the concept DOI or the registry record
Correction route: Registry correction pathway
Notice types: erratum · addendum · supersession · withdrawal

C.3Corrections log

0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition’s current version.

Edition	Version	Date	State	Change	Notice
IDN	NR-COUNTRY-IDN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0	October 2026	Draft	Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,	None

Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.

C.4Open record

This edition’s open record

Publication ID: NR-COUNTRY-IDN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Desk identifier and series alias: NR-NAT-IDN-2026-BL
Collection: None
DOI: Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata
Versions: Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest
Bundle: RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest
Licence: CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0

Credit and identity

ORCID: Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record
ROR: Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone
CRediT: Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing
Account: None needed to contribute; never a password

Find and follow

Search the open indexes for Indonesia; software is cited by its SWHID from Software Heritage, and a quantified scenario run is preregistered on OSF before it is run. Annotation is your choice: Hypothesis opens this page in its own viewer.

Mirrors and harvest

The DOI is canonical. At release each signed bundle is also given an IPFS content identifier and a bloxberg anchor as mirrors; both are listed in the record once they exist. Zenodo exposes every record over OAI-PMH, and reviews and endorsements can arrive through COAR Notify where the repository supports it.

InvenioRDM metadata for a contribution on Indonesia, prefilled from this page

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C.5Where this edition sits among the six pillars

Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.

F03 Sealed observations and indicator series Foundry Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04 After-action and scenario findings for Universe After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter Foundry National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
Applied in editions Standards Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
IDN edition Reports Indonesia 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.
F06 Method and correction findings as change Standards Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year Universe Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
Taught in the open Academy Risk Academy: taught in the open.

What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; IDN is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.

Handoff	Between	What crosses, and when
F03	Foundry to Reports	Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04	Universe to Reports	After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05	Foundry to Reports	National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
Ring	Nexus Standards to Reports	Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
F06	Reports to Nexus Standards	Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12	Reports to Universe	Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
Ring	Reports to Risk Academy	Risk Academy: taught in the open.

S.1Abstract

S.2Key messages

S.3Headline finding

S.4At a glance

S.5What each steward reads in it

Technical Truth

Public Meaning

Capital Meaning

Synthesis

S.6What this edition is, and is not

What this edition is

What it is not

What comes next

Notes

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

In this part

1.2The argument

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

Transmission paths

1.4Reinforcing loops

Notes

2.1Headline finding

Implication

What would move it

2.2Climate forcing

2.3Energy

2.4Food

2.5Health

2.6Biodiversity

2.7Water

2.8Systemic

Notes

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

Safely managed drinking water

Fossil share of electricity

Paddy production, officially estimated

Stunting among children under five

Land in protected areas

Gap to a 1.5 °C pathway, 2035

3.2Domain posture

3.3Sector screens

Notes

4.1Risk objects

Heavy rain, flood and landslide

Harvest loss and import shock

Fossil dependence and supply disruption

Geophysical hazards and subsidence near dense settlement

4.2Capability ladder

Notes

5.1Assumptions

5.2The cascade, step by step

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

Notes

6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject

6.2Three lenses

Technical Truth

Public Meaning

Capital Meaning

Synthesis

6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions

Standards drafts used in this edition

Standards calendar to watch

6.4GCRI reading: the model card

6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 01

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 02

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 03

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 04

6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: q1 2027 readiness pack

Publication dispositions

6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Changed since 2024

To watch in 2027

6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments

Review protocol

Where the evidence agrees

Where it is unsettled

Notes

7.1Questions for the operational series

National context¹²¹⁴