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Flood and landslide sequence across rice-growing islands

A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

2 min read0 figures0 tables2 notesNR-COUNTRY-IDN-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Indonesia’s risk is climatic, geophysical and supply-linked at once
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Flood and landslide sequence across rice-growing islands
    1. 5.1 Assumptions
    2. 5.2 The cascade, step by step
    3. 5.3 The scenario as a table of steps
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-IDN-FLD-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline
the 2026 reference state in this edition
Drivers
a prolonged heavy-rain season causing floods and landslides across several provinces during planting, while wheat imports are already near a record
Analogues
Sumatra, late December 2025 and January 202610; event records are otherwise a designed gap16
Interventions
none modelled; the specification describes the unmitigated case
Run state
narrative specification; quantified Foundry run scheduled for Q1 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

  1. 1

    CLI → WAT

    heavy rain floods fields and settlements

    Sumatra10

  2. 2

    WAT → INF

    landslides cut roads and power lines

    Sumatra10

  3. 3

    WAT → FOO

    standing crops are lost and planting is delayed

    Sumatra10

  4. 4

    INF → HLT

    access to clinics and supplies falls

    expert input

  5. 5

    TRD → FOO

    import needs rise as domestic supply tightens

    expert input

  6. 6

    FOO → FIN

    price pressure reaches household budgets

    expert input

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-IDN-FLD-01 would travel through Indonesia’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

StepWhat happensSource
01 Climate to waterHeavy rain floods fields and settlements. Analogue or source: Sumatra [10].Edition IDN, scenario SCN-IDN-FLD-01, step 1
02 Water to infrastructureLandslides cut roads and power lines. Analogue or source: Sumatra [10].Edition IDN, scenario SCN-IDN-FLD-01, step 2
03 Water to foodStanding crops are lost and planting is delayed. Analogue or source: Sumatra [10].Edition IDN, scenario SCN-IDN-FLD-01, step 3
04 Infrastructure to healthAccess to clinics and supplies falls. Analogue or source: expert input.Edition IDN, scenario SCN-IDN-FLD-01, step 4
05 Trade to foodImport needs rise as domestic supply tightens. Analogue or source: expert input.Edition IDN, scenario SCN-IDN-FLD-01, step 5
06 Food to financePrice pressure reaches household budgets. Analogue or source: expert input.Edition IDN, scenario SCN-IDN-FLD-01, step 6

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: Indonesia 2026, scenario SCN-IDN-FLD-01 (2026); Indonesia 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 10Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Indonesia, reference date 29 January 2026. FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025 (production) and 2025/26 (imports). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.fao.org/giews/countrybrief/country.jsp?code=IDNback
  2. 16National Disaster Management Agency, BNPB (ed.), Indonesian Disaster Data and Information (DIBI). BNPB, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; the page returned no data at evidence close. Observation year none bound. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://dibi.bnpb.go.id/back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 5: Flood and landslide sequence across rice-growing islands. In Indonesia Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Indonesia’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-IDN-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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Sector signature

The sectors behind Indonesia.

A reading aid: the sectors the findings run through and how strongly they depend on each other.

Select corners · hover lines6 / 15 relations

Context

Urban flood

Flooded streets take out substations, pumping stations and clinic access together; drinking water fails when power does.

W · E · I · F · H · B

Sectors
4 of 6
Relations
6 of 15
Coupling
0.46 share of total

Strongest relations in play

  • Energy → Infrastructure · power for transport and telecoms0.8
  • Water → Energy · cooling water and hydropower0.6
  • Infrastructure → Water · pipes, dams and treatment works0.6
  • Water → Health · drinking water and sanitation0.7
Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen.
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