Africa Regional Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of Africa’s Interdependent Systems.

S.1Abstract

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the Africa baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

1. South Africa emitted 427.3 Mt of carbon dioxide in 2023, Kenya 21.3 Mt and Senegal 13.7 Mt, excluding land use.⁶

   Where do emissions stand?Reported

2. Electricity reached 74.2% to 87.7% of people in the members in 2023, against 53.3% in sub-Saharan Africa.⁴

   What do people have access to?Reported

3. South Africa has had no load shedding since 16 May 2025. Continental reliability series are not bound.²⁸²⁹

   How reliable is the grid?Reported

4. Southern African cereal yields fell 16% below average in 2024; 307 million Africans were in hunger.¹²

   How exposed are crops and food?Reported

5. East African floods affected more than 700,000 people in 2024; the Eastern Cape floods caused at least 90 deaths by 15 June 2025.¹²⁷

   How severe were recent floods?Reported

6. South Africa withdrew 47.1% of its internal freshwater resources in 2022.¹¹

   How much water is withdrawn?Reported

7. Insured and uninsured loss series by member are not bound in this edition.²⁷

   Who carries flood losses?Not bound

8. A failed rainy season coinciding with a power shortfall and a food price rise across member borders. SCN-AFR-RAIN-01

   What will Q1 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002

Floods in East Africa in 2024 affected more than 700,000 people in Kenya, Tanzania and Burundi, and floods in West and Central Africa affected more than four million.

A flood season is a regional event. The same rains reach three East African states at once, and the Kenya figure cannot be read apart from its neighbours. Flood response, roads, power and cholera control therefore need to be read across borders¹.

S.4At a glance

S.5What each steward reads in it

S.6What this edition is, and is not

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 3World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 4World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Access to electricity, % of population (EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 20World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Electric power consumption, kWh per capita (EG.USE.ELEC.KH.PC), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 1WMO (ed.), State of the Climate in Africa 2024 (press release and report page, published 12 May 2025: temperature, drought, cereal yields, floods, marine heatwaves). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 2FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2025 (joint release page, 28 July 2025: Africa 307 million in hunger, above 20%). WHO, Geneva, for the partner agencies. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Carbon dioxide emissions excluding LULUCF, Mt CO2e (EN.GHG.CO2.MT.CE.AR5), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 28Eskom Holdings (ed.), Power system remains stable with 105 consecutive days without loadshedding (media statement, 29 August 2025). Eskom, Johannesburg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 29South African Government News Agency (ed.), Eskom continues to record progress (20 September 2026: 490 consecutive days without load shedding; year-to-date EAF 67.96%). SAnews, Pretoria. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 27Eastern Cape Provincial Government, as reported by the South African Government News Agency (ed.), Death toll in Eastern Cape floods rises to 90 (16 June 2025; about 2,686 residents in shelters). SAnews, Pretoria. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 11World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Annual freshwater withdrawals, total, % of internal resources (ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa (Kenya and Senegal values repeat across years), as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, GDP, current US dollars (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

• Where is Africa’s risk concentrated, and in which systems?
• Which couplings carry shocks across member borders?
• Which capabilities hold under compound stress, and which are only documented?
• What must the 2027 programme measure first?

In this part

• Narrative
• Headline finding
• Lead figure
• Member system cards
• Shared basins and grids
• Hub list
• Regional pathway
• Twelve-domain reading
• Sector screens
• Dependency matrix
• Risk objects
• Capability ladder
• Scenario
• Three lenses
• Portfolio

1.2The argument

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The Africa matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

Transmission paths

1. 01

   CLI → WAT → FOO

   Failed rains cut river flow and yields and raise hunger.

   Reported drought 2024¹; hunger²

2. 02

   CLI → FOO → FIN

   A poor harvest raises food prices and public spending.

   Inferred yields 2024¹; no price series bound

3. 03

   WAT → ENE

   Low reservoir levels cut hydropower and raise outages.

   Reported low water at Lake Kariba reduced hydropower in 2024¹

4. 04

   INF → ENE → all

   Plant breakdowns cause load shedding that reaches industry and households.

   Reported South Africa load-shedding period and recovery²⁸²⁹

5. 05

   CLI → INF → HLT

   Flooding damages roads, water and clinics and raises disease risk.

   Inferred Eastern Cape floods²⁷; no health series bound

1.4Reinforcing loops

A shock entering either system of a loop can return amplified through the other.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 3World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 1WMO (ed.), State of the Climate in Africa 2024 (press release and report page, published 12 May 2025: temperature, drought, cereal yields, floods, marine heatwaves). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 27Eastern Cape Provincial Government, as reported by the South African Government News Agency (ed.), Death toll in Eastern Cape floods rises to 90 (16 June 2025; about 2,686 residents in shelters). SAnews, Pretoria. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 2FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2025 (joint release page, 28 July 2025: Africa 307 million in hunger, above 20%). WHO, Geneva, for the partner agencies. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Prevalence of undernourishment, % of population (SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 19World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Agriculture, forestry and fishing, value added, % of GDP (NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 32Environmental Peacebuilding (ed.), State of Africa’s Environment: Transboundary tension (republication of an article of 15 September 2024; 63 basins, about 62% of land area, about 90% of surface water; the underlying report is not named on the page). Environmental Peacebuilding Association. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 30African Manager (ed.), OMVS: une capacité hydroélectrique de 400 MW (statement of the OMVS High Commissioner: Manantali 200 MW, Félou 60 MW, Gouina 140 MW; members Guinea, Mali, Mauritania, Senegal). African Manager, Casablanca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 11World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Annual freshwater withdrawals, total, % of internal resources (ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa (Kenya and Senegal values repeat across years), as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 20World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Electric power consumption, kWh per capita (EG.USE.ELEC.KH.PC), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 29South African Government News Agency (ed.), Eskom continues to record progress (20 September 2026: 490 consecutive days without load shedding; year-to-date EAF 67.96%). SAnews, Pretoria. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 31World Oil (ed.), First gas achieved at Greater Tortue Ahmeyim LNG project, offshore West Africa (2 January 2025; first gas 31 December 2024; Phase 1 about 2.3 million tonnes a year). World Oil, Houston. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 4World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Access to electricity, % of population (EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 28Eskom Holdings (ed.), Power system remains stable with 105 consecutive days without loadshedding (media statement, 29 August 2025). Eskom, Johannesburg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002

Floods in East Africa in 2024 affected more than 700,000 people in Kenya, Tanzania and Burundi, and floods in West and Central Africa affected more than four million.

Implication

A flood season is a regional event. The same rains reach three East African states at once, and the Kenya figure cannot be read apart from its neighbours. Flood response, roads, power and cholera control therefore need to be read across borders¹.

What would move it

Seasonal rainfall outlooks, river-flow forecasts, flood-warning exchange between states and the national loss series would each move this finding. Kenya flood deaths and displacement from the situation report are not bound³⁹.

2.2Climate forcing

1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001

   Average surface temperature in Africa in 2024 was about 0.86 °C above the 1991 to 2020 average, and the past decade was the warmest on record; North Africa, outside the member set, was 1.28 °C above.¹

2. ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002

   Floods in East Africa in 2024 affected more than 700,000 people in Kenya, Tanzania and Burundi, and floods in West and Central Africa affected more than four million.¹

2.3Food

1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-FOO-003

   Southern African cereal yields in 2024 were 16% below the five-year average in an extreme drought, with Zambia 43% below and Zimbabwe 50% below.¹

2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-FOO-004

   The FAO-led report counted 307 million Africans in hunger in 2024, above 20% of the population; in 2023 the World Bank series carried 36.4% for Kenya, 10.5% for South Africa and 5.6% for Senegal.²¹⁰

2.4Energy

1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-ENE-005

   In 2023 electricity reached 87.7% of South Africans, 76.2% of Kenyans and 74.2% of Senegalese, against 53.3% in sub-Saharan Africa.⁴

2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-ENE-006

   South Africa recorded no load shedding from 16 May 2025; Eskom reported 105 consecutive days by 29 August 2025 and 490 days by 20 September 2026, with year-to-date energy availability of 67.96%.²⁸²⁹

3. ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-ENE-007

   Electricity use per person in 2022 was about 3,405 kWh in South Africa, 189 kWh in Kenya and 400 kWh in Senegal, and South Africa emitted 427.3 Mt of carbon dioxide in 2023, about 49% of the sub-Saharan Africa total of 871.0 Mt.⁶²⁰

2.5Water

1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-WAT-008

   Africa has 63 transboundary river basins covering about 62% of its land area and holding about 90% of its surface water; the Senegal River organisation operates 400 MW of hydropower across four states.³⁰³²

2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-WAT-009

   South Africa withdrew 47.1% of its internal freshwater resources in 2022, against 19.5% in Kenya, 11.9% in Senegal and 3.4% in sub-Saharan Africa.¹¹

2.6Health

1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-HLT-010

   Under-five mortality in 2023 was 34.8 per 1,000 in South Africa, 38.2 in Senegal and 39.6 in Kenya, against 73.2 in sub-Saharan Africa; life expectancy at birth ranged from 63.6 to 68.7 years across the members.¹³¹⁷

2.7Biodiversity

1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-BIO-011

   Terrestrial protected areas covered 26.3% of Senegal, 14.0% of Kenya and 9.5% of South Africa in 2024, against 17.0% in sub-Saharan Africa.¹²

2.8Systemic

1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

   The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a failed rainy season that coincides with a power shortfall and a food price rise across member borders. §9.3

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1WMO (ed.), State of the Climate in Africa 2024 (press release and report page, published 12 May 2025: temperature, drought, cereal yields, floods, marine heatwaves). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: UN OCHA (ed.), Kenya heavy rains and flooding, flash update 7 (19 June 2024; about 315 killed and 293,200 displaced between 1 March and 18 June 2024, from search summaries; the page returned an access error). OCHA, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 2FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2025 (joint release page, 28 July 2025: Africa 307 million in hunger, above 20%). WHO, Geneva, for the partner agencies. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Prevalence of undernourishment, % of population (SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 4World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Access to electricity, % of population (EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 28Eskom Holdings (ed.), Power system remains stable with 105 consecutive days without loadshedding (media statement, 29 August 2025). Eskom, Johannesburg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 29South African Government News Agency (ed.), Eskom continues to record progress (20 September 2026: 490 consecutive days without load shedding; year-to-date EAF 67.96%). SAnews, Pretoria. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Carbon dioxide emissions excluding LULUCF, Mt CO2e (EN.GHG.CO2.MT.CE.AR5), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 20World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Electric power consumption, kWh per capita (EG.USE.ELEC.KH.PC), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 30African Manager (ed.), OMVS: une capacité hydroélectrique de 400 MW (statement of the OMVS High Commissioner: Manantali 200 MW, Félou 60 MW, Gouina 140 MW; members Guinea, Mali, Mauritania, Senegal). African Manager, Casablanca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 32Environmental Peacebuilding (ed.), State of Africa’s Environment: Transboundary tension (republication of an article of 15 September 2024; 63 basins, about 62% of land area, about 90% of surface water; the underlying report is not named on the page). Environmental Peacebuilding Association. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 11World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Annual freshwater withdrawals, total, % of internal resources (ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa (Kenya and Senegal values repeat across years), as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 13World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Mortality rate, under-5, per 1,000 live births (SH.DYN.MORT), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 17World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Life expectancy at birth, years (SP.DYN.LE00.IN), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 12World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Terrestrial protected areas, % of total land area (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The reading states where the regional evidence points; the coupling column names the dependency that carries risk across systems and borders.

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen global sectors are screened on the same grammar as every national edition, so later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 11World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Annual freshwater withdrawals, total, % of internal resources (ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa (Kenya and Senegal values repeat across years), as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 4World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Access to electricity, % of population (EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Prevalence of undernourishment, % of population (SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 13World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Mortality rate, under-5, per 1,000 live births (SH.DYN.MORT), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 12World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Terrestrial protected areas, % of total land area (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 1WMO (ed.), State of the Climate in Africa 2024 (press release and report page, published 12 May 2025: temperature, drought, cereal yields, floods, marine heatwaves). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 32Environmental Peacebuilding (ed.), State of Africa’s Environment: Transboundary tension (republication of an article of 15 September 2024; 63 basins, about 62% of land area, about 90% of surface water; the underlying report is not named on the page). Environmental Peacebuilding Association. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 29South African Government News Agency (ed.), Eskom continues to record progress (20 September 2026: 490 consecutive days without load shedding; year-to-date EAF 67.96%). SAnews, Pretoria. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 2FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2025 (joint release page, 28 July 2025: Africa 307 million in hunger, above 20%). WHO, Geneva, for the partner agencies. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 27Eastern Cape Provincial Government, as reported by the South African Government News Agency (ed.), Death toll in Eastern Cape floods rises to 90 (16 June 2025; about 2,686 residents in shelters). SAnews, Pretoria. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 24International Monetary Fund (ed.), World Economic Outlook DataMapper, general government gross debt, % of GDP (GGXWDG_NGDP), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and the sub-Saharan Africa group, latest vintage served on the access date; values for the latest year may be estimates or projections. IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 31World Oil (ed.), First gas achieved at Greater Tortue Ahmeyim LNG project, offshore West Africa (2 January 2025; first gas 31 December 2024; Phase 1 about 2.3 million tonnes a year). World Oil, Houston. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 22World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Poverty headcount ratio at 3.00 US dollars a day (2021 PPP) (SI.POV.DDAY), South Africa (17.4, 2022), Kenya (45.5, 2022), Senegal (17.9, 2021) and Sub-Saharan Africa (45.5, 2023), as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: Parliament of the Republic of South Africa (ed.), Climate Change Act 22 of 2024 (signed 2024; the government page returned not found). Government Gazette, Pretoria. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: Parliament of Kenya (ed.), Climate Change Act, No. 11 of 2016 (the page returned an access error). Kenya Law, Nairobi. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 28Eskom Holdings (ed.), Power system remains stable with 105 consecutive days without loadshedding (media statement, 29 August 2025). Eskom, Johannesburg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 15World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Urban population, % of total population (SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 33African Union Commission (ed.), Agenda 2063: overview (framework for socio-economic transformation over 50 years from 2013, with 10-year implementation plans). African Union, Addis Ababa. Observation year 2013. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: H.-O. Pörtner, D. C. Roberts et al. (eds.), Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Working Group II contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC, Africa chapter. IPCC, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

1. ReportedEQL 4RSK-AFR-CLI-001

   Flood and storm season across borders

   Driver

   extreme rainfall on saturated catchments

   Exposure

   river corridors, informal settlements, roads

   Vulnerability

   drainage and defence condition not bound

   Capacity

   continental early-warning gaps named by WMO¹

   Cascade

   CLI → INF, HLT, FIN

   Horizon

   annual

2. ReportedEQL 4RSK-AFR-WAT-002

   Failed rains and low flow on shared rivers

   Driver

   low rainfall and high demand

   Exposure

   cereals, hydropower, urban water

   Vulnerability

   dependence on a few reservoirs¹³⁰

   Capacity

   basin organisations; performance not bound

   Cascade

   WAT → ENE, FOO

   Horizon

   1–5 years

3. ReportedEQL 4RSK-AFR-FOO-003

   Hunger and cereal shortfall in a drought year

   Driver

   drought, flood and price shocks

   Exposure

   rural households and importers

   Vulnerability

   high prevalence of undernourishment²¹⁰

   Capacity

   national reserves and safety nets not bound

   Cascade

   CLI → FOO → HLT, FIN

   Horizon

   seasonal

4. Expert inputEQL 2RSK-AFR-ENE-004

   Power shortfall or grid failure

   Driver

   plant breakdown, drought-hit hydropower or fuel shortage

   Exposure

   industry, water pumping, health services

   Vulnerability

   reserve margin and cross-border flows not bound

   Capacity

   utility recovery programme reported²⁸²⁹

   Cascade

   ENE → WAT, FOO, FIN

   Horizon

   1–5 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at the regional level, from a policy listing to performance in real events.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1WMO (ed.), State of the Climate in Africa 2024 (press release and report page, published 12 May 2025: temperature, drought, cereal yields, floods, marine heatwaves). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 30African Manager (ed.), OMVS: une capacité hydroélectrique de 400 MW (statement of the OMVS High Commissioner: Manantali 200 MW, Félou 60 MW, Gouina 140 MW; members Guinea, Mali, Mauritania, Senegal). African Manager, Casablanca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 2FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2025 (joint release page, 28 July 2025: Africa 307 million in hunger, above 20%). WHO, Geneva, for the partner agencies. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Prevalence of undernourishment, % of population (SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 28Eskom Holdings (ed.), Power system remains stable with 105 consecutive days without loadshedding (media statement, 29 August 2025). Eskom, Johannesburg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 29South African Government News Agency (ed.), Eskom continues to record progress (20 September 2026: 490 consecutive days without load shedding; year-to-date EAF 67.96%). SAnews, Pretoria. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: Parliament of the Republic of South Africa (ed.), Climate Change Act 22 of 2024 (signed 2024; the government page returned not found). Government Gazette, Pretoria. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: Parliament of Kenya (ed.), Climate Change Act, No. 11 of 2016 (the page returned an access error). Kenya Law, Nairobi. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 4World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Access to electricity, % of population (EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 33African Union Commission (ed.), Agenda 2063: overview (framework for socio-economic transformation over 50 years from 2013, with 10-year implementation plans). African Union, Addis Ababa. Observation year 2013. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 27Eastern Cape Provincial Government, as reported by the South African Government News Agency (ed.), Death toll in Eastern Cape floods rises to 90 (16 June 2025; about 2,686 residents in shelters). SAnews, Pretoria. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 24International Monetary Fund (ed.), World Economic Outlook DataMapper, general government gross debt, % of GDP (GGXWDG_NGDP), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and the sub-Saharan Africa group, latest vintage served on the access date; values for the latest year may be estimates or projections. IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: H.-O. Pörtner, D. C. Roberts et al. (eds.), Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Working Group II contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC, Africa chapter. IPCC, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-AFR-RAIN-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline

the 2026 reference state in this edition

Drivers

a poor rainy season with low river flow, falling hydropower and a rise in staple prices

Analogues

southern African drought of 2024¹; East African floods of 2024¹; South Africa power shortfall and recovery²⁸²⁹

Interventions

none modelled, the specification describes the unmitigated case

Run state

narrative specification; quantified Foundry run scheduled for Q1 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

1. 1

   CLI → WAT

   poor rains cut river flow and reservoir storage

   drought 2024¹

2. 2

   WAT → ENE

   low reservoirs reduce hydropower and raise outages

   Lake Kariba 2024¹

3. 3

   CLI → FOO

   cereal yields fall and staple prices rise

   yields 2024¹; no price series bound

4. 4

   FOO → HLT

   hunger and disease risk rise in poor households

   hunger 2024²

5. 5

   FOO → FIN

   public spending on relief rises against high debt

   debt 2025²⁴

6. 6

   FIN → recovery

   recovery slows where fiscal room is thin

   debt 2025²⁴

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-AFR-RAIN-01 would travel through Africa’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: Africa 2026, scenario SCN-AFR-RAIN-01 (2026); Africa 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1WMO (ed.), State of the Climate in Africa 2024 (press release and report page, published 12 May 2025: temperature, drought, cereal yields, floods, marine heatwaves). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 28Eskom Holdings (ed.), Power system remains stable with 105 consecutive days without loadshedding (media statement, 29 August 2025). Eskom, Johannesburg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 29South African Government News Agency (ed.), Eskom continues to record progress (20 September 2026: 490 consecutive days without load shedding; year-to-date EAF 67.96%). SAnews, Pretoria. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 2FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2025 (joint release page, 28 July 2025: Africa 307 million in hunger, above 20%). WHO, Geneva, for the partner agencies. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 24International Monetary Fund (ed.), World Economic Outlook DataMapper, general government gross debt, % of GDP (GGXWDG_NGDP), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and the sub-Saharan Africa group, latest vintage served on the access date; values for the latest year may be estimates or projections. IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject

Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.

6.2Three lenses

One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.

6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions

How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for Africa. The standards are preparatory working drafts (October 2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.

6.4GCRI reading: the model card

GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology

6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.

6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 regional readiness pack

The registers that open the 2027 regional cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.

Publication dispositions

• Publish
• Hold
• Needs evidence
• Restricted
• Superseded

6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Instruments that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.

• IN FORCE
• ADOPTED
• SUBMITTED
• UNDER REVIEW
• PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY

6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review: science and assessments

The review behind this edition covers peer-reviewed science, regional and international assessments and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Full systematic reviews begin in Q1 2027 for each agenda item.

Review protocol

Question

What does the published evidence establish about Africa’s coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity risks across its member countries?

Sources searched

peer-reviewed literature; regional and international assessments; official releases; statutory instruments

Window

releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026

Selection

sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition

Next step

systematic reviews for agenda items A-01 to A-05 in Q1 2027

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 24International Monetary Fund (ed.), World Economic Outlook DataMapper, general government gross debt, % of GDP (GGXWDG_NGDP), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and the sub-Saharan Africa group, latest vintage served on the access date; values for the latest year may be estimates or projections. IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: Parliament of the Republic of South Africa (ed.), Climate Change Act 22 of 2024 (signed 2024; the government page returned not found). Government Gazette, Pretoria. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: Parliament of Kenya (ed.), Climate Change Act, No. 11 of 2016 (the page returned an access error). Kenya Law, Nairobi. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 33African Union Commission (ed.), Agenda 2063: overview (framework for socio-economic transformation over 50 years from 2013, with 10-year implementation plans). African Union, Addis Ababa. Observation year 2013. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 47UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 30African Manager (ed.), OMVS: une capacité hydroélectrique de 400 MW (statement of the OMVS High Commissioner: Manantali 200 MW, Félou 60 MW, Gouina 140 MW; members Guinea, Mali, Mauritania, Senegal). African Manager, Casablanca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 31World Oil (ed.), First gas achieved at Greater Tortue Ahmeyim LNG project, offshore West Africa (2 January 2025; first gas 31 December 2024; Phase 1 about 2.3 million tonnes a year). World Oil, Houston. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 29South African Government News Agency (ed.), Eskom continues to record progress (20 September 2026: 490 consecutive days without load shedding; year-to-date EAF 67.96%). SAnews, Pretoria. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Kosmos Energy and bp (eds.), Greater Tortue Ahmeyim project records (commercial operations 2025; second phase not yet decided, from press summaries). Kosmos Energy, Dallas. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: H.-O. Pörtner, D. C. Roberts et al. (eds.), Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Working Group II contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC, Africa chapter. IPCC, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 1WMO (ed.), State of the Climate in Africa 2024 (press release and report page, published 12 May 2025: temperature, drought, cereal yields, floods, marine heatwaves). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 2FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2025 (joint release page, 28 July 2025: Africa 307 million in hunger, above 20%). WHO, Geneva, for the partner agencies. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 32Environmental Peacebuilding (ed.), State of Africa’s Environment: Transboundary tension (republication of an article of 15 September 2024; 63 basins, about 62% of land area, about 90% of surface water; the underlying report is not named on the page). Environmental Peacebuilding Association. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 28Eskom Holdings (ed.), Power system remains stable with 105 consecutive days without loadshedding (media statement, 29 August 2025). Eskom, Johannesburg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 26WHO (ed.), Cholera fact sheet (2025 global totals: 451,499 cases and 7,870 deaths reported by 47 countries; no African subtotal on the page). WHO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 3World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, GDP, current US dollars (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 4World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Access to electricity, % of population (EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 20World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Electric power consumption, kWh per capita (EG.USE.ELEC.KH.PC), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21. 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Carbon dioxide emissions excluding LULUCF, Mt CO2e (EN.GHG.CO2.MT.CE.AR5), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22. 7World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, People using at least basic drinking water services, % of population (SH.H2O.BASW.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa (South Africa 90.2, Kenya 65.6, Senegal 88.0, group 67.5), as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23. 11World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Annual freshwater withdrawals, total, % of internal resources (ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa (Kenya and Senegal values repeat across years), as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24. 21World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, People using safely managed sanitation services, % of population (SH.STA.SMSS.ZS), South Africa (73.8), Kenya (35.8), Senegal (30.1) and Sub-Saharan Africa (25.9), as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
25. 13World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Mortality rate, under-5, per 1,000 live births (SH.DYN.MORT), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
26. 16World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Population ages 65 and above, % of total population (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS), South Africa (6.7), Kenya (3.0), Senegal (3.6) and Sub-Saharan Africa (3.2), as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
27. 17World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Life expectancy at birth, years (SP.DYN.LE00.IN), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
28. 23International Monetary Fund (ed.), World Economic Outlook DataMapper, real GDP growth (NGDP_RPCH), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and the sub-Saharan Africa group, latest vintage served on the access date; values for the latest year may be estimates or projections. IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
29. 25International Monetary Fund (ed.), World Economic Outlook DataMapper, inflation, average consumer prices (PCPIPCH), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and the sub-Saharan Africa group, latest vintage served on the access date; values for the latest year may be estimates or projections. IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
30. 48UNVERIFIED, not opened: African Development Bank (ed.), African Economic Outlook 2025 (context only; no figure used). AfDB, Abidjan. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
31. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026 (Africa added 11.3 GW in 2025, from press summaries; the page returned an access error). IRENA, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
32. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Energy Agency (ed.), Africa Energy Outlook 2022. IEA, Paris. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
33. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Statistics South Africa (ed.), Mid-year population estimates 2025 (release of 28 July 2025: 63,100,945 people, from search summaries; differs from the World Bank 2024 value of 64,007,187). Stats SA, Pretoria. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
34. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Agence nationale de la statistique et de la démographie (ed.), Rapport sur la population du Sénégal 2025 (19,075,959 people, from search summaries; the page returned an error; the United Nations projection of about 18.9 million differs). ANSD, Dakar. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
35. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Energy Agency (ed.), Electricity access commentary, October 2025 (about 730 million people without electricity worldwide in 2024, sub-Saharan Africa about eight in ten, from search summaries; the page returned an access error). IEA, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
36. 49UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA, IRENA, UN Statistics Division, World Bank and WHO (eds.), Tracking SDG7: The Energy Progress Report 2026 (sub-Saharan Africa about 563 million without electricity, from search summaries). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
37. 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Prevalence of undernourishment, % of population (SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

7.1Questions for the operational series

1. A-01

   How would a failed rainy season load power, food and public budgets across member borders?

   INI-AFR-CLI-01 · compound rains and power stress; first output: dependency graph for eastern and southern Africa.

2. A-02

   How reliable is power supply after the load-shedding period, and how does it reach industry and households?

   INI-AFR-ENE-02 · power system reliability; first output: availability and outage register for South Africa.

3. A-03

   How do shared river basins carry drought and flood across borders?

   INI-AFR-WAT-03 · shared basins; first output: basin performance note for the Senegal River.

4. A-04

   How many people are in hunger by member, and which shocks move the figure?

   INI-AFR-FOO-04 · food security; first output: hunger and cereal baseline for three members.

5. A-05

   Where do flood and drought losses fall between households, insurers and public budgets?

   INI-AFR-FIN-05 · protection gap; first output: peril-by-member loss table.

6. A-06

   What is the condition of protected areas and how is it measured across members?

   INI-AFR-BIO-01 · workstream; first output: condition indicator note.

7. A-07

   How far do gas and oil developments change power, budgets and exposure in Senegal?

   To be admitted in Q1 2027; first output: scoping note.

8. A-08

   Which capabilities have been tested in real events, and which are only documented?

   Regional capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Six initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 regional portfolio. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

7.3The pathway

The Africa regional pathway is the route through which the Nexus operating system will read Africa as one region from 2027. At baseline the pathway is designed and its hubs are named in the series registry; its working arrangements are set from Q1 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next, nothing more.

1. 01

   National Foundries

   continuous national evidence environments

   PREPARED · first sealed cuts in Q1 2027

2. 02

   National Models and Portfolios

   each country as a system of systems

   CANADA v0 ISSUED · 25 further national baselines

3. 03

   Quarterly national reports

   State & Agenda, Evidence, Stress Test, Annual

   BASELINE STAGE · Q1 2027 opens the series

4. 04

   Regional aggregation

   Africa as one of ten regional clusters

   THIS EDITION · annual regional cut from 2027

5. 05

   Global sector and strategic models

   GS-01…15 · SR-01…14 · XT-01…20

   49 PLANNED · pilots: GS-01, SR-01, XT-01

6. 06

   Universe

   annual proving environment

   CANDIDATE MISSION · global mandate in 2027

7. 07

   Global Report

   this series

   BASELINE ISSUED · 2027 annual edition

8. 08

   Evidence and correction

   one graph, many projections

   OPEN · first federation-wide correction cycle in 2027

7.4Universe 2027: evidence pack for the regional candidate mission

1. 01

   Mandate

2. 02

   Core Build · 1 month

3. 03

   Action · 1 week

4. 04

   Evidence seal

5. 05

   Portfolio correction

6. 06

   Next mandate

Mission

ID

MSN-AFR-2027-01 · Rains, power and food Universe mission

Role spine

Leadership sponsor (NLC) · Institutional anchor (NNC) · Mission lead (NWG)

Receiving actors

to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

7.6Feeds and signal register

Escalation routes

• none · keep monitoring
• research question
• project
• risk object
• quarterly publication
• signal report

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1WMO (ed.), State of the Climate in Africa 2024 (press release and report page, published 12 May 2025: temperature, drought, cereal yields, floods, marine heatwaves). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 29South African Government News Agency (ed.), Eskom continues to record progress (20 September 2026: 490 consecutive days without load shedding; year-to-date EAF 67.96%). SAnews, Pretoria. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

8.1Member countries: the baseline regional chapter

The three member countries named in the series registry, read side by side on the same indicators. The African Union is a separate subject: it appears only as a reference group, and no figure here is a union total.

8.2Shared basins and grids: the baseline regional chapter

Shared basins, power systems and gas fields carry risk across borders. This chapter names each system, the members involved and the evidence read at baseline. Rows without a source are designed empty states.

8.3Hub list: the baseline regional chapter

The hubs the series registry names for this region and for its member countries. The list is read from the registry, so a change there changes this page.

Registry

Regional hubs

Dakar · Nairobi · Pretoria

Desks with a remit

GCRI · GRF · GRX

Registry record

NR-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0

What a hub does in this series

• Hub terms of reference are not set at baseline
• Hub contact points are not named at baseline
• The registry names the hubs and the desks with a remit; working arrangements follow from Q1 2027

8.4Regional pathway: the baseline regional chapter

The regional pathway is the route through which the series will read Africa as one region from 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next. It does not describe any body that has not been constituted.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 3World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 4World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Access to electricity, % of population (EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, GDP, current US dollars (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Carbon dioxide emissions excluding LULUCF, Mt CO2e (EN.GHG.CO2.MT.CE.AR5), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 11World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Annual freshwater withdrawals, total, % of internal resources (ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa (Kenya and Senegal values repeat across years), as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 12World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Terrestrial protected areas, % of total land area (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 29South African Government News Agency (ed.), Eskom continues to record progress (20 September 2026: 490 consecutive days without load shedding; year-to-date EAF 67.96%). SAnews, Pretoria. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 8World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Renewable electricity output, % of total electricity output (EG.ELC.RNEW.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa (values for 2022 to 2024 are null), as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Renewable energy consumption, % of total final energy consumption (EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa (group value is for 2020), as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Prevalence of undernourishment, % of population (SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 31World Oil (ed.), First gas achieved at Greater Tortue Ahmeyim LNG project, offshore West Africa (2 January 2025; first gas 31 December 2024; Phase 1 about 2.3 million tonnes a year). World Oil, Houston. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 33African Union Commission (ed.), Agenda 2063: overview (framework for socio-economic transformation over 50 years from 2013, with 10-year implementation plans). African Union, Addis Ababa. Observation year 2013. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 1WMO (ed.), State of the Climate in Africa 2024 (press release and report page, published 12 May 2025: temperature, drought, cereal yields, floods, marine heatwaves). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 2FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2025 (joint release page, 28 July 2025: Africa 307 million in hunger, above 20%). WHO, Geneva, for the partner agencies. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Statistics South Africa (ed.), Mid-year population estimates 2025 (release of 28 July 2025: 63,100,945 people, from search summaries; differs from the World Bank 2024 value of 64,007,187). Stats SA, Pretoria. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Agence nationale de la statistique et de la démographie (ed.), Rapport sur la population du Sénégal 2025 (19,075,959 people, from search summaries; the page returned an error; the United Nations projection of about 18.9 million differs). ANSD, Dakar. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 30African Manager (ed.), OMVS: une capacité hydroélectrique de 400 MW (statement of the OMVS High Commissioner: Manantali 200 MW, Félou 60 MW, Gouina 140 MW; members Guinea, Mali, Mauritania, Senegal). African Manager, Casablanca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 32Environmental Peacebuilding (ed.), State of Africa’s Environment: Transboundary tension (republication of an article of 15 September 2024; 63 basins, about 62% of land area, about 90% of surface water; the underlying report is not named on the page). Environmental Peacebuilding Association. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 28Eskom Holdings (ed.), Power system remains stable with 105 consecutive days without loadshedding (media statement, 29 August 2025). Eskom, Johannesburg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Energy Agency (ed.), Africa Energy Outlook 2022. IEA, Paris. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21. 52UNVERIFIED, not opened: Zawya (ed.), Why Kenya depends on Ethiopia and Uganda for power (press report on imports within the Eastern Africa power exchange; no figure used). Zawya, Dubai. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Kosmos Energy and bp (eds.), Greater Tortue Ahmeyim project records (commercial operations 2025; second phase not yet decided, from press summaries). Kosmos Energy, Dallas. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

A.1Methods

The regional baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.

A.2Model card: Regional System Model v0

Model ID

MDL-AFR-REGIONAL · v0.1

Purpose

represent Africa as coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems across member countries, with forcing and transmission layers

Family

graph-based system of systems

Inputs

the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data

Method

expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from assessments and analogue events

Validation

none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027

Uncertainty

qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements

Domain of validity

regional scale; not for national, basin or asset-level use

Reproducibility

strength table and sources published in this edition

A.3The baseline evidence cut

Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The regional baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.

Cut ID

NQ-REG-AFR-2026-Q0-1

Type

baseline documentary cut

Resolution policy

pinned · as of 30 September 2026

Sources pinned

52 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references

Model runs

none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method

Digest

computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record

Supersedes

nothing, first cut of the series

Superseded by

NQ-REG-AFR-2027-Q1-1 at the Q1 2027 close

Lineage

1. 01

   source edition

2. 02

   pinned citation

3. 03

   finding

4. 04

   page

5. 05

   publication record

A.4Evidence age and coverage

A 2026 edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.

A.5Evidence cards: two anchor sources

Evidence cards to follow in Q1 2027

• National electricity statistics⁴⁰ : generation mix after 2021
• Humanitarian situation reports³⁹ : flood deaths and displacement
• IEA, IRENA and Tracking SDG7³⁶³⁷⁴⁹ : access and capacity on one basis
• Reports Foundational Edition⁵¹ and the global baseline⁵⁰ : method and peer distributions

A.6Publication acceptance record

Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.

A.7Status words

A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected

Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.

A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).

Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.

A.9Glossary and abbreviations

A.10Technical annex

A.1 · indicator definition: carbon dioxide excluding land use

Construct

annual carbon dioxide emissions without land use, land-use change and forestry

Unit

Mt CO₂e

Scope

calendar year

Source

World Bank greenhouse gas series for carbon dioxide excluding land use⁶

Revision

revised by the issuer; not tracked here

Known limits

other gases and land use are not in the series

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Energy Agency (ed.), Electricity access commentary, October 2025 (about 730 million people without electricity worldwide in 2024, sub-Saharan Africa about eight in ten, from search summaries; the page returned an access error). IEA, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 49UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA, IRENA, UN Statistics Division, World Bank and WHO (eds.), Tracking SDG7: The Energy Progress Report 2026 (sub-Saharan Africa about 563 million without electricity, from search summaries). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Economic Survey 2025 and 2026 (electricity generation by source; figures seen only in press summaries and not used). KNBS, Nairobi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: UN OCHA (ed.), Kenya heavy rains and flooding, flash update 7 (19 June 2024; about 315 killed and 293,200 displaced between 1 March and 18 June 2024, from search summaries; the page returned an access error). OCHA, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 30African Manager (ed.), OMVS: une capacité hydroélectrique de 400 MW (statement of the OMVS High Commissioner: Manantali 200 MW, Félou 60 MW, Gouina 140 MW; members Guinea, Mali, Mauritania, Senegal). African Manager, Casablanca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 32Environmental Peacebuilding (ed.), State of Africa’s Environment: Transboundary tension (republication of an article of 15 September 2024; 63 basins, about 62% of land area, about 90% of surface water; the underlying report is not named on the page). Environmental Peacebuilding Association. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 26WHO (ed.), Cholera fact sheet (2025 global totals: 451,499 cases and 7,870 deaths reported by 47 countries; no African subtotal on the page). WHO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026 (Africa added 11.3 GW in 2025, from press summaries; the page returned an access error). IRENA, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 4World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Access to electricity, % of population (EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 1WMO (ed.), State of the Climate in Africa 2024 (press release and report page, published 12 May 2025: temperature, drought, cereal yields, floods, marine heatwaves). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 51UNVERIFIED, not opened: S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 50S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition (draft pack read as the structural base of this edition). GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Carbon dioxide emissions excluding LULUCF, Mt CO2e (EN.GHG.CO2.MT.CE.AR5), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

B.1The indicator set

B.2Regional source register

The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.

Domains bound by the register

• WAT
• ENE
• FOO
• HLT
• BIO
• CLI
• INF
• FIN
• TRD
• MIN

B.3Regional reading: Africa by member country

Map plates for every member country follow in Q2 2027, when boundary sources and public-safe resolutions are bound. This page gives the regional reading in table form for the 3 member countries named in the series registry.

Population, 2024³

B.4Atlas card: Senegal River basin

• basin
• shared river system
• hydropower and irrigation
• members: Senegal

Systems in view

water, energy and food

Defining instruments

basin organisation framework³⁰

Couplings

CLI → WAT → ENE; WAT → FOO

Capability evidence

a basin organisation of four states operates 400 MW of hydropower³⁰; performance not bound

Gaps

basin area, member shares, flow series and irrigation withdrawals

Agenda items

A-03

B.5Africa system card

The card through which Africa appears in the global edition and in the sector series. It summarises; it does not rank.

Context

Archetype

three members inside a continent of shared basins and power systems

Population

1.29 billion in sub-Saharan Africa, 2024³; United Nations projections give a larger figure for the whole continent³⁸

Trade

first gas from a shared offshore field, December 2024³¹

Hazard

floods in East Africa affected more than 700,000 people in 2024¹

B.6Licences

B.7Formats and provenance

Provenance

Edition pack

The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built

Evidence cut

NQ-REG-AFR-2026-Q0-1, closed 30 September 2026

Reproducibility

sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters

Self-check

14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release

Review

five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)

Publisher of record

GCRI for the Nexus Consortium

Corrections

Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 3World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, GDP, current US dollars (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 4World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Access to electricity, % of population (EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Carbon dioxide emissions excluding LULUCF, Mt CO2e (EN.GHG.CO2.MT.CE.AR5), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 11World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Annual freshwater withdrawals, total, % of internal resources (ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa (Kenya and Senegal values repeat across years), as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Prevalence of undernourishment, % of population (SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 2FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2025 (joint release page, 28 July 2025: Africa 307 million in hunger, above 20%). WHO, Geneva, for the partner agencies. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 1WMO (ed.), State of the Climate in Africa 2024 (press release and report page, published 12 May 2025: temperature, drought, cereal yields, floods, marine heatwaves). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 13World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Mortality rate, under-5, per 1,000 live births (SH.DYN.MORT), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 12World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Terrestrial protected areas, % of total land area (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 18World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Cereal production, metric tons (AG.PRD.CREL.MT), South Africa (19.0 Mt), Kenya (5.1 Mt), Senegal (4.0 Mt) and Sub-Saharan Africa (187.2 Mt), as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Economic Survey 2025 and 2026 (electricity generation by source; figures seen only in press summaries and not used). KNBS, Nairobi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Energy Agency (ed.), Electricity access commentary, October 2025 (about 730 million people without electricity worldwide in 2024, sub-Saharan Africa about eight in ten, from search summaries; the page returned an access error). IEA, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Statistics South Africa (ed.), Mid-year population estimates 2025 (release of 28 July 2025: 63,100,945 people, from search summaries; differs from the World Bank 2024 value of 64,007,187). Stats SA, Pretoria. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Agence nationale de la statistique et de la démographie (ed.), Rapport sur la population du Sénégal 2025 (19,075,959 people, from search summaries; the page returned an error; the United Nations projection of about 18.9 million differs). ANSD, Dakar. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (ed.), World Population Prospects 2024 (Africa about 1.55 billion in mid-2025, from aggregator summaries). UN DESA, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 20World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Electric power consumption, kWh per capita (EG.USE.ELEC.KH.PC), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 28Eskom Holdings (ed.), Power system remains stable with 105 consecutive days without loadshedding (media statement, 29 August 2025). Eskom, Johannesburg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 29South African Government News Agency (ed.), Eskom continues to record progress (20 September 2026: 490 consecutive days without load shedding; year-to-date EAF 67.96%). SAnews, Pretoria. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 27Eastern Cape Provincial Government, as reported by the South African Government News Agency (ed.), Death toll in Eastern Cape floods rises to 90 (16 June 2025; about 2,686 residents in shelters). SAnews, Pretoria. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: UN OCHA (ed.), Kenya heavy rains and flooding, flash update 7 (19 June 2024; about 315 killed and 293,200 displaced between 1 March and 18 June 2024, from search summaries; the page returned an access error). OCHA, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22. 17World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Life expectancy at birth, years (SP.DYN.LE00.IN), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23. 26WHO (ed.), Cholera fact sheet (2025 global totals: 451,499 cases and 7,870 deaths reported by 47 countries; no African subtotal on the page). WHO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24. 31World Oil (ed.), First gas achieved at Greater Tortue Ahmeyim LNG project, offshore West Africa (2 January 2025; first gas 31 December 2024; Phase 1 about 2.3 million tonnes a year). World Oil, Houston. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
25. 14World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Forest area, % of land area (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), South Africa (18.7), Kenya (6.5), Senegal (45.1) and Sub-Saharan Africa (25.7), as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
26. 30African Manager (ed.), OMVS: une capacité hydroélectrique de 400 MW (statement of the OMVS High Commissioner: Manantali 200 MW, Félou 60 MW, Gouina 140 MW; members Guinea, Mali, Mauritania, Senegal). African Manager, Casablanca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

C.152 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

1. 1WMO (ed.), State of the Climate in Africa 2024 (press release and report page, published 12 May 2025: temperature, drought, cereal yields, floods, marine heatwaves). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
2. 2FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2025 (joint release page, 28 July 2025: Africa 307 million in hunger, above 20%). WHO, Geneva, for the partner agencies. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
3. 3World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 6, chapter 8
4. 4World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Access to electricity, % of population (EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
5. 5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, GDP, current US dollars (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 6, chapter 8
6. 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Carbon dioxide emissions excluding LULUCF, Mt CO2e (EN.GHG.CO2.MT.CE.AR5), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
7. 7World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, People using at least basic drinking water services, % of population (SH.H2O.BASW.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa (South Africa 90.2, Kenya 65.6, Senegal 88.0, group 67.5), as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
8. 8World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Renewable electricity output, % of total electricity output (EG.ELC.RNEW.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa (values for 2022 to 2024 are null), as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
9. 9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Renewable energy consumption, % of total final energy consumption (EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa (group value is for 2020), as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
10. 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Prevalence of undernourishment, % of population (SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
11. 11World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Annual freshwater withdrawals, total, % of internal resources (ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa (Kenya and Senegal values repeat across years), as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
12. 12World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Terrestrial protected areas, % of total land area (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8
13. 13World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Mortality rate, under-5, per 1,000 live births (SH.DYN.MORT), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
14. 14World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Forest area, % of land area (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), South Africa (18.7), Kenya (6.5), Senegal (45.1) and Sub-Saharan Africa (25.7), as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.
15. 15World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Urban population, % of total population (SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3
16. 16World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Population ages 65 and above, % of total population (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS), South Africa (6.7), Kenya (3.0), Senegal (3.6) and Sub-Saharan Africa (3.2), as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
17. 17World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Life expectancy at birth, years (SP.DYN.LE00.IN), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
18. 18World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Cereal production, metric tons (AG.PRD.CREL.MT), South Africa (19.0 Mt), Kenya (5.1 Mt), Senegal (4.0 Mt) and Sub-Saharan Africa (187.2 Mt), as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.
19. 19World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Agriculture, forestry and fishing, value added, % of GDP (NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1
20. 20World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Electric power consumption, kWh per capita (EG.USE.ELEC.KH.PC), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6
21. 21World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, People using safely managed sanitation services, % of population (SH.STA.SMSS.ZS), South Africa (73.8), Kenya (35.8), Senegal (30.1) and Sub-Saharan Africa (25.9), as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
22. 22World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Poverty headcount ratio at 3.00 US dollars a day (2021 PPP) (SI.POV.DDAY), South Africa (17.4, 2022), Kenya (45.5, 2022), Senegal (17.9, 2021) and Sub-Saharan Africa (45.5, 2023), as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3
23. 23International Monetary Fund (ed.), World Economic Outlook DataMapper, real GDP growth (NGDP_RPCH), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and the sub-Saharan Africa group, latest vintage served on the access date; values for the latest year may be estimates or projections. IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
24. 24International Monetary Fund (ed.), World Economic Outlook DataMapper, general government gross debt, % of GDP (GGXWDG_NGDP), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and the sub-Saharan Africa group, latest vintage served on the access date; values for the latest year may be estimates or projections. IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6
25. 25International Monetary Fund (ed.), World Economic Outlook DataMapper, inflation, average consumer prices (PCPIPCH), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and the sub-Saharan Africa group, latest vintage served on the access date; values for the latest year may be estimates or projections. IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
26. 26WHO (ed.), Cholera fact sheet (2025 global totals: 451,499 cases and 7,870 deaths reported by 47 countries; no African subtotal on the page). WHO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
27. 27Eastern Cape Provincial Government, as reported by the South African Government News Agency (ed.), Death toll in Eastern Cape floods rises to 90 (16 June 2025; about 2,686 residents in shelters). SAnews, Pretoria. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4
28. 28Eskom Holdings (ed.), Power system remains stable with 105 consecutive days without loadshedding (media statement, 29 August 2025). Eskom, Johannesburg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
29. 29South African Government News Agency (ed.), Eskom continues to record progress (20 September 2026: 490 consecutive days without load shedding; year-to-date EAF 67.96%). SAnews, Pretoria. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
30. 30African Manager (ed.), OMVS: une capacité hydroélectrique de 400 MW (statement of the OMVS High Commissioner: Manantali 200 MW, Félou 60 MW, Gouina 140 MW; members Guinea, Mali, Mauritania, Senegal). African Manager, Casablanca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
31. 31World Oil (ed.), First gas achieved at Greater Tortue Ahmeyim LNG project, offshore West Africa (2 January 2025; first gas 31 December 2024; Phase 1 about 2.3 million tonnes a year). World Oil, Houston. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
32. 32Environmental Peacebuilding (ed.), State of Africa’s Environment: Transboundary tension (republication of an article of 15 September 2024; 63 basins, about 62% of land area, about 90% of surface water; the underlying report is not named on the page). Environmental Peacebuilding Association. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
33. 33African Union Commission (ed.), Agenda 2063: overview (framework for socio-economic transformation over 50 years from 2013, with 10-year implementation plans). African Union, Addis Ababa. Observation year 2013. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
34. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Statistics South Africa (ed.), Mid-year population estimates 2025 (release of 28 July 2025: 63,100,945 people, from search summaries; differs from the World Bank 2024 value of 64,007,187). Stats SA, Pretoria. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
35. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Agence nationale de la statistique et de la démographie (ed.), Rapport sur la population du Sénégal 2025 (19,075,959 people, from search summaries; the page returned an error; the United Nations projection of about 18.9 million differs). ANSD, Dakar. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
36. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Energy Agency (ed.), Electricity access commentary, October 2025 (about 730 million people without electricity worldwide in 2024, sub-Saharan Africa about eight in ten, from search summaries; the page returned an access error). IEA, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
37. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026 (Africa added 11.3 GW in 2025, from press summaries; the page returned an access error). IRENA, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
38. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (ed.), World Population Prospects 2024 (Africa about 1.55 billion in mid-2025, from aggregator summaries). UN DESA, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.
39. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: UN OCHA (ed.), Kenya heavy rains and flooding, flash update 7 (19 June 2024; about 315 killed and 293,200 displaced between 1 March and 18 June 2024, from search summaries; the page returned an access error). OCHA, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2
40. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Economic Survey 2025 and 2026 (electricity generation by source; figures seen only in press summaries and not used). KNBS, Nairobi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.
41. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Kosmos Energy and bp (eds.), Greater Tortue Ahmeyim project records (commercial operations 2025; second phase not yet decided, from press summaries). Kosmos Energy, Dallas. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
42. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Energy Agency (ed.), Africa Energy Outlook 2022. IEA, Paris. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
43. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: Parliament of the Republic of South Africa (ed.), Climate Change Act 22 of 2024 (signed 2024; the government page returned not found). Government Gazette, Pretoria. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
44. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: Parliament of Kenya (ed.), Climate Change Act, No. 11 of 2016 (the page returned an access error). Kenya Law, Nairobi. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
45. 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: H.-O. Pörtner, D. C. Roberts et al. (eds.), Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Working Group II contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC, Africa chapter. IPCC, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
46. 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
47. 47UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
48. 48UNVERIFIED, not opened: African Development Bank (ed.), African Economic Outlook 2025 (context only; no figure used). AfDB, Abidjan. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
49. 49UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA, IRENA, UN Statistics Division, World Bank and WHO (eds.), Tracking SDG7: The Energy Progress Report 2026 (sub-Saharan Africa about 563 million without electricity, from search summaries). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
50. 50S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition (draft pack read as the structural base of this edition). GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
51. 51UNVERIFIED, not opened: S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
52. 52UNVERIFIED, not opened: Zawya (ed.), Why Kenya depends on Ethiopia and Uganda for power (press report on imports within the Eastern Africa power exchange; no figure used). Zawya, Dubai. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8

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