Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

References and record

Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

16 min read0 figures1 table0 notesNR-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Africa’s risk travels through rivers, rains and power systems
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Failed rainy season with power and food stress across eastern and southern Africa
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
    1. C.1 52 sources
    2. C.2 Publication record
    3. C.3 Corrections log
    4. C.4 Open record
    5. C.5 Where this edition sits among the six pillars
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

C.152 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

  1. 1WMO (ed.), State of the Climate in Africa 2024 (press release and report page, published 12 May 2025: temperature, drought, cereal yields, floods, marine heatwaves). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  2. 2FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2025 (joint release page, 28 July 2025: Africa 307 million in hunger, above 20%). WHO, Geneva, for the partner agencies. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
  3. 3World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 6, chapter 8
  4. 4World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Access to electricity, % of population (EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  5. 5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, GDP, current US dollars (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 6, chapter 8
  6. 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Carbon dioxide emissions excluding LULUCF, Mt CO2e (EN.GHG.CO2.MT.CE.AR5), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
  7. 7World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, People using at least basic drinking water services, % of population (SH.H2O.BASW.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa (South Africa 90.2, Kenya 65.6, Senegal 88.0, group 67.5), as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  8. 8World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Renewable electricity output, % of total electricity output (EG.ELC.RNEW.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa (values for 2022 to 2024 are null), as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
  9. 9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Renewable energy consumption, % of total final energy consumption (EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa (group value is for 2020), as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
  10. 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Prevalence of undernourishment, % of population (SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  11. 11World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Annual freshwater withdrawals, total, % of internal resources (ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa (Kenya and Senegal values repeat across years), as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  12. 12World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Terrestrial protected areas, % of total land area (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8
  13. 13World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Mortality rate, under-5, per 1,000 live births (SH.DYN.MORT), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
  14. 14World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Forest area, % of land area (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), South Africa (18.7), Kenya (6.5), Senegal (45.1) and Sub-Saharan Africa (25.7), as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.
  15. 15World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Urban population, % of total population (SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3
  16. 16World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Population ages 65 and above, % of total population (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS), South Africa (6.7), Kenya (3.0), Senegal (3.6) and Sub-Saharan Africa (3.2), as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  17. 17World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Life expectancy at birth, years (SP.DYN.LE00.IN), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
  18. 18World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Cereal production, metric tons (AG.PRD.CREL.MT), South Africa (19.0 Mt), Kenya (5.1 Mt), Senegal (4.0 Mt) and Sub-Saharan Africa (187.2 Mt), as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.
  19. 19World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Agriculture, forestry and fishing, value added, % of GDP (NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1
  20. 20World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Electric power consumption, kWh per capita (EG.USE.ELEC.KH.PC), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6
  21. 21World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, People using safely managed sanitation services, % of population (SH.STA.SMSS.ZS), South Africa (73.8), Kenya (35.8), Senegal (30.1) and Sub-Saharan Africa (25.9), as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  22. 22World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Poverty headcount ratio at 3.00 US dollars a day (2021 PPP) (SI.POV.DDAY), South Africa (17.4, 2022), Kenya (45.5, 2022), Senegal (17.9, 2021) and Sub-Saharan Africa (45.5, 2023), as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3
  23. 23International Monetary Fund (ed.), World Economic Outlook DataMapper, real GDP growth (NGDP_RPCH), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and the sub-Saharan Africa group, latest vintage served on the access date; values for the latest year may be estimates or projections. IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  24. 24International Monetary Fund (ed.), World Economic Outlook DataMapper, general government gross debt, % of GDP (GGXWDG_NGDP), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and the sub-Saharan Africa group, latest vintage served on the access date; values for the latest year may be estimates or projections. IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6
  25. 25International Monetary Fund (ed.), World Economic Outlook DataMapper, inflation, average consumer prices (PCPIPCH), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and the sub-Saharan Africa group, latest vintage served on the access date; values for the latest year may be estimates or projections. IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  26. 26WHO (ed.), Cholera fact sheet (2025 global totals: 451,499 cases and 7,870 deaths reported by 47 countries; no African subtotal on the page). WHO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  27. 27Eastern Cape Provincial Government, as reported by the South African Government News Agency (ed.), Death toll in Eastern Cape floods rises to 90 (16 June 2025; about 2,686 residents in shelters). SAnews, Pretoria. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4
  28. 28Eskom Holdings (ed.), Power system remains stable with 105 consecutive days without loadshedding (media statement, 29 August 2025). Eskom, Johannesburg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
  29. 29South African Government News Agency (ed.), Eskom continues to record progress (20 September 2026: 490 consecutive days without load shedding; year-to-date EAF 67.96%). SAnews, Pretoria. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  30. 30African Manager (ed.), OMVS: une capacité hydroélectrique de 400 MW (statement of the OMVS High Commissioner: Manantali 200 MW, Félou 60 MW, Gouina 140 MW; members Guinea, Mali, Mauritania, Senegal). African Manager, Casablanca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  31. 31World Oil (ed.), First gas achieved at Greater Tortue Ahmeyim LNG project, offshore West Africa (2 January 2025; first gas 31 December 2024; Phase 1 about 2.3 million tonnes a year). World Oil, Houston. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  32. 32Environmental Peacebuilding (ed.), State of Africa’s Environment: Transboundary tension (republication of an article of 15 September 2024; 63 basins, about 62% of land area, about 90% of surface water; the underlying report is not named on the page). Environmental Peacebuilding Association. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  33. 33African Union Commission (ed.), Agenda 2063: overview (framework for socio-economic transformation over 50 years from 2013, with 10-year implementation plans). African Union, Addis Ababa. Observation year 2013. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  34. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Statistics South Africa (ed.), Mid-year population estimates 2025 (release of 28 July 2025: 63,100,945 people, from search summaries; differs from the World Bank 2024 value of 64,007,187). Stats SA, Pretoria. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  35. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Agence nationale de la statistique et de la démographie (ed.), Rapport sur la population du Sénégal 2025 (19,075,959 people, from search summaries; the page returned an error; the United Nations projection of about 18.9 million differs). ANSD, Dakar. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  36. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Energy Agency (ed.), Electricity access commentary, October 2025 (about 730 million people without electricity worldwide in 2024, sub-Saharan Africa about eight in ten, from search summaries; the page returned an access error). IEA, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  37. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026 (Africa added 11.3 GW in 2025, from press summaries; the page returned an access error). IRENA, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  38. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (ed.), World Population Prospects 2024 (Africa about 1.55 billion in mid-2025, from aggregator summaries). UN DESA, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.
  39. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: UN OCHA (ed.), Kenya heavy rains and flooding, flash update 7 (19 June 2024; about 315 killed and 293,200 displaced between 1 March and 18 June 2024, from search summaries; the page returned an access error). OCHA, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2
  40. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Economic Survey 2025 and 2026 (electricity generation by source; figures seen only in press summaries and not used). KNBS, Nairobi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.
  41. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Kosmos Energy and bp (eds.), Greater Tortue Ahmeyim project records (commercial operations 2025; second phase not yet decided, from press summaries). Kosmos Energy, Dallas. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  42. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Energy Agency (ed.), Africa Energy Outlook 2022. IEA, Paris. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  43. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: Parliament of the Republic of South Africa (ed.), Climate Change Act 22 of 2024 (signed 2024; the government page returned not found). Government Gazette, Pretoria. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  44. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: Parliament of Kenya (ed.), Climate Change Act, No. 11 of 2016 (the page returned an access error). Kenya Law, Nairobi. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  45. 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: H.-O. Pörtner, D. C. Roberts et al. (eds.), Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Working Group II contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC, Africa chapter. IPCC, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  46. 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
  47. 47UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  48. 48UNVERIFIED, not opened: African Development Bank (ed.), African Economic Outlook 2025 (context only; no figure used). AfDB, Abidjan. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  49. 49UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA, IRENA, UN Statistics Division, World Bank and WHO (eds.), Tracking SDG7: The Energy Progress Report 2026 (sub-Saharan Africa about 563 million without electricity, from search summaries). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  50. 50S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition (draft pack read as the structural base of this edition). The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
  51. 51UNVERIFIED, not opened: S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
  52. 52UNVERIFIED, not opened: Zawya (ed.), Why Kenya depends on Ethiopia and Uganda for power (press report on imports within the Eastern Africa power exchange; no figure used). Zawya, Dubai. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8

C.2Publication record

Publication

Title
Africa Regional Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition
Series
Reports · Edition 2026–2030
Edition
Baseline Edition 2026 · inaugural annual
Version
v1.0.0 · draft for stewardship review
Publication ID
NR-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Evidence close
30 September 2026
Publication date
October 2026
DOI
concept and version DOI at deposit

Publisher

Publisher of record
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium
Place
Toronto
Editor
Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor
Stewards
GCRI · technical truth · the Global Risks Forum (GRF) · public meaning · the Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · capital meaning
Licence
text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source
Copyright
© 2026 GCRI · Nexus Consortium
Language
English (en-GB) source edition
Correspondence
Registry correction pathway · editorial office

Colophon

Format
A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF
Typefaces
Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)
Design standard
Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII
Accessibility
tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure
Production
Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version

Table C.1Release path for this version
StepWhat happensWhen
Drafteditorial self-check complete at evidence closeOctober 2026
Steward reviewfive passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N)Q4 2026
Approvalpublication authority approves the exact digestbefore release
Depositconcept and version DOI minted; registry pointer setat release
Successionthe 2027 regional edition reports changes against this baseline2027
Current version
v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review
Previous edition
none, first edition of the series
Next edition
NR-REGIONAL-AFR-2027-Q1-v1.0.0
Latest version
resolve the concept DOI or the registry record
Correction route
Registry correction pathway
Notice types
erratum · addendum · supersession · withdrawal

C.3Corrections log

0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition’s current version.

EditionVersionDateStateChangeNotice
REG-AFRNR-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026DraftBaseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,None

Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.

C.4Open record

This edition’s open record

Publication ID
NR-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Desk identifier and series alias
NR-REG-AFR-2026-BL
Collection
None
DOI
Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata
Versions
Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest
Bundle
RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest
Licence
CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0

Credit and identity

ORCID
Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record
ROR
Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone
CRediT
Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing
Account
None needed to contribute; never a password

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Mirrors and harvest

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C.5Where this edition sits among the six pillars

Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.

  1. F03 Sealed observations and indicator series Foundry Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
  2. F04 After-action and scenario findings for Universe After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
  3. F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter Foundry National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
  4. Applied in editions Standards Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
  5. REG-AFR edition Reports Africa 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.
  6. F06 Method and correction findings as change Standards Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
  7. F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year Universe Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
  8. Taught in the open Academy Risk Academy: taught in the open.

What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; REG-AFR is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.

HandoffBetweenWhat crosses, and when
F03Foundry to ReportsSealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04Universe to ReportsAfter-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05Foundry to ReportsNational Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
RingNexus Standards to ReportsNexus Standards: applied in editions.
F06Reports to Nexus StandardsMethod and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12Reports to UniverseQ4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
RingReports to Risk AcademyRisk Academy: taught in the open.

Cite this annex

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Annex C: References and record. In Africa Regional Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of Africa’s Interdependent Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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