Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Reports
Baseline Edition 2026
Complete edition

Turkiye Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026

The State of Turkiye’s Interdependent Systems

Choose A4 or Letter in the print dialog; running heads and page numbers are added in print. This is a review copy: the signed PDF with its DOI is issued at release.

ReportsTUR

Country Systems Risk and Resilience

Turkiye 2026

The State of Turkiye’s Interdependent Systems

Baseline Edition 2026NR-COUNTRY-TUR-2026-BASELINEGCRI for the Nexus Consortium

Imprint

Editor: Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor, the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
Publisher of record: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto
Report number: NR-COUNTRY-TUR-2026-BASELINE
Evidence close: 30 September 2026, cut NQ-TUR-2026-Q0-1
Status: Draft under stewardship review; not yet released
DOI and UNI: Issued at deposit
Licence: CC BY 4.0 for Nexus-authored text, tables and figures; third-party material keeps its own licence
Cite as: Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Turkiye Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Turkiye’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-TUR-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI). https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/tur/

Contents

·
Executive summary
1
Chapter 1. Turkiye’s risk is seismic, climatic and import-dependent at once
2
Chapter 2. Key findings
3
Chapter 3. Systems and sectors at baseline
4
Chapter 4. Risks and capability
5
Chapter 5. A drought year across water, hydropower, wheat and budgets
6
Chapter 6. Readings from the other desks
7
Chapter 7. The 2027 agenda
8
Chapter 8. Systems in depth
A
Annex A. Methodology
B
Annex B. Data appendix
C
Annex C. References and record

Turkiye 2026
Executive summary

Executive summary

The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.

6 min read1 figure0 tables17 notesNR-COUNTRY-TUR-2026-BASELINE

S.1Abstract

Turkiye enters 2027 with rising emissions, a power fleet that has become mostly renewable by capacity, and a hazard regime that joins great earthquakes, drought and fire. Greenhouse-gas emissions were 584.5 Mt CO₂e in 2024, up 5.3% on 2023, and energy supplied 71.8% of the total². The second climate contribution, submitted in November 2025, limits 2035 emissions to 643 Mt CO₂e including land use, which is 466 Mt below the business-as-usual path, and the national goal is net zero by 2053³⁴. Renewables were 62.3% of installed power capacity at the end of 2025, yet coal still produced 34% of electricity, about two-thirds of it from imported coal¹⁴¹⁷, and about 67% of primary energy was imported in 2024¹⁵. The earthquakes of 6 February 2023 killed about 53,500 people across 11 provinces, and the government assessment put recovery and reconstruction needs at about USD 103.6 billion⁹¹⁰¹¹. 2025 was the fifth warmest year in the 55-year record, with rainfall 27.6% below the 1991–2020 mean⁸, and the wheat harvest fell to about 17.9 million tonnes²⁰. This Baseline Edition fixes the reference state for Turkiye’s water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems, maps the couplings through which seismic, climate and supply shocks travel, and sets the questions the first operational edition will answer with Foundry evidence in Q1 2027. Where a figure could not be bound to a published source, the page says so. It ranks nothing and decides nothing.

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the Turkiye baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

584.5 Mt CO₂e in 2024, up 5.3% on 2023.²
Where do emissions stand?Reported
The 2023 earthquakes killed about 53,500 people, and a magnitude 6.2 event struck Marmara in April 2025.⁹¹²
How exposed is Turkiye to great earthquakes?Reported
Renewables are 62.3% of capacity, yet about 67% of primary energy is imported.¹⁵¹⁷
How secure is energy supply?Reported
Wheat output fell 13.7% in the 2025 drought and is estimated to recover in 2026.¹⁹²⁰
How secure is food?Reported
About 1,308 m³ per person in 2024, below the common stress threshold.²¹
How tight is water?Reported
Not bound: no national heat-death series was retrieved. Ministry of Health
Is heat a health hazard?Not bound
About 42% of residential units lack compulsory earthquake cover.²⁹
Who carries the losses?Reported
A drought year cutting water, hydropower, wheat and household budgets together. SCN-TUR-DRT-01
What will Q1 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-TUR-2026-BASELINE-SEI-005

The earthquakes of 6 February 2023 killed about 53,500 people across 11 provinces, and the government assessment put recovery and reconstruction needs at about USD 103.6 billion, or about 9% of forecast 2023 GDP.

Figure S.1The 2023 earthquakes: deaths and costs

Item	Bar, scaled to the largest value	Value
Deaths (thousands)		≈53.5
Recovery and reconstruction need, TERRA (USD billion)		≈103.6
Direct physical damage, GRADE (USD billion)		>34.2

Sources: TMMOB report on official figures⁹; World Bank GRADE¹⁰; TERRA¹¹. Units differ and the two cost figures measure different things.

One event reached housing, health, power, transport and public finance across 11 provinces at once. The recovery need set against national output shows the fiscal weight of a single seismic shock¹¹. A separate published estimate gives a substantial probability of a magnitude 7 or larger earthquake beneath the Sea of Marmara, next to Istanbul, between 2004 and 2034¹³.

S.4At a glance

86.09million

population, 31 December 2025¹

34.9years

median age, 2025¹

584.5Mt CO₂e

emissions, 2024²

≈67%

primary energy imported, 2024¹⁵

122.5GW

installed power capacity, end 2025¹⁷

93.6%

living in province and district centres, 2025¹

S.5What each steward reads in it

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports a coupled reading of Turkiye’s risk: great earthquakes dominate the tail, drought has become a recurring stress, and import dependence carries shocks into energy and food.

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people risk arrives as an earthquake, a dry summer or a price rise.

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. About 58% of residential units hold compulsory earthquake cover, a national emissions trading system is in pilot preparation, and recovery needs after 2023 were large.

NEXUS

Synthesis

Turkiye is building clean power quickly, yet water, food and fuel still depend on rainfall and imports.

S.6What this edition is, and is not

What this edition is

A baseline: the state of Turkiye’s water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems in 2026, the dependencies that connect them, the risks that travel through them and the capabilities that hold them. It sets out the questions the operational series will answer.

What it is not

Not a national risk assessment, an official warning or a rating. It decides nothing about any institution or asset. Competent authorities keep every mandate they hold, and national ownership of the series is unaffected.

What comes next

Q1 2027 opens the operational series with a sealed Foundry evidence cut. Each later edition reports what changed against this baseline, new observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

2Turkish Statistical Institute (ed.), Greenhouse Gas Emissions Statistics, 1990–2024. TurkStat, Ankara, 27 March 2026. Observation year 2024.back
3Ministry of Environment, Urbanisation and Climate Change (ed.), “Türkiye submits its second Nationally Determined Contribution to the United Nations.” Ankara, November 2025. Observation year 2035 target.back
4Climate Action Tracker (ed.), Türkiye: 2035 NDC assessment. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, Berlin, 2025–2026. Observation year 2035 target.back
14Ember (ed.), Türkiye Electricity Review 2026. Ember, London, 2026. Observation year 2025.back
17Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources (ed.), installed power capacity at the end of 2025, as reported by SolarQuarter citing SHURA. Ankara, 22 January 2026. Observation year 2025.back
15Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources (ed.), Primary Energy Mix of Türkiye 2024, presentation at the IENE conference. Ankara and Athens, 19 March 2026. Observation year 2024.back
9Union of Chambers of Turkish Engineers and Architects (ed.), Report on the first year after the 6 February 2023 earthquakes, citing official figures. TMMOB, Ankara, 2024. Observation year 2023.back
10World Bank and GFDRR (eds.), Global Rapid Post-Disaster Damage Estimation (GRADE) Report: February 6, 2023 Kahramanmaraş Earthquakes, Türkiye Report. World Bank, Washington DC, February 2023. Observation year 2023.back
11Presidency of the Republic of Türkiye, Strategy and Budget Office (ed.), Türkiye Earthquakes Recovery and Reconstruction Assessment (TERRA). Ankara, March 2023, with UNDP, World Bank and EU support. Observation year 2023.back
8Turkish State Meteorological Service (ed.), 2025 Climate Assessment of Türkiye (in Turkish). MGM, Ankara, 2026. Observation year 2025.back
20Turkish Statistical Institute (ed.), Crop Production Statistics 2025, as reported by eFeedLink. Ankara, 30 December 2025. Observation year 2025.back
12Al Jazeera (ed.), “Magnitude 6.2 earthquake jolts Türkiye’s Istanbul,” reporting AFAD data. Doha, 23 April 2025. Observation year 2025.back
19Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Türkiye. FAO, Rome, reference date 7 September 2026. Observation years 2025–2026.back
21State Hydraulic Works (DSİ), per-person annual water availability 2000 and 2024, as reported by Anadolu Agency and Milliyet. Ankara, 2025. Observation year 2024.back
29Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool (DASK), compulsory earthquake insurance coverage, as reported by Daily Sabah. Ankara and Istanbul, August 2026. Observation year 2026.back
13T. Parsons, “Recalculated probability of M ≥ 7 earthquakes beneath the Sea of Marmara, Turkey,” Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, vol. 109, B05304, 2004. doi:10.1029/2003JB002667. Observation period 2004–2034. doi:10.1029/2003JB002667 back
1Turkish Statistical Institute (ed.), Address Based Population Registration System Results 2025. TurkStat, Ankara, 9 February 2026. Observation year 2025.back

Turkiye 2026
Chapter 1

Turkiye’s risk is seismic, climatic and import-dependent at once

Part I describes systems and their couplings. It assesses no authority and ranks no province.

8 min read2 figures2 tables23 notesNR-COUNTRY-TUR-2026-BASELINE

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

Where is Turkiye’s risk concentrated, and in which systems?
Which couplings carry shocks from one system to the next?
Which capabilities hold under compound stress, and which are only documented?
What must the 2027 programme measure first?

In this part

Narrative
Headline finding
Lead figure
Five system chapters
Twelve-domain reading
Sector screens
Dependency matrix
Risk objects
Capability ladder
Scenario
Three lenses
Portfolio

1.2The argument

Turkiye sits on active faults, in a drying Mediterranean climate, with a large and fast-growing economy that buys most of its energy abroad. This baseline reads its exposure as three forces acting together: great earthquakes, a warming and drying climate, and dependence on imported fuel and food inputs.

The seismic layer dominates the tail. The earthquakes of 6 February 2023 killed about 53,500 people across 11 provinces home to about 14 million people⁹¹⁰. The government assessment put recovery and reconstruction needs at about USD 103.6 billion, and the World Bank rapid estimate of direct physical damage exceeded USD 34.2 billion; the two measure different things and are not added¹⁰¹¹. A magnitude 6.2 earthquake in the Sea of Marmara on 23 April 2025 was a reminder of the exposure of the Istanbul region¹², and a published estimate gives a 53 ± 18% probability of a magnitude 7 or larger event beneath the Sea of Marmara between 2004 and 2034¹³.

The climate layer is moving. 2025 averaged 15.1 °C, 1.2 °C above the 1991–2020 mean, and rainfall was 27.6% below it⁸. Per-person renewable water was about 1,308 m³ in 2024²¹, Istanbul’s reservoirs held 24.7% on 17 October 2025²², and about 684 sinkholes have been counted on the Konya Plain, where groundwater is being drawn down²³. Wildfires burned 81,473 ha of forest land in 2025²⁴.

The energy layer is changing quickly but still leans on imports. Renewables reached 62.3% of installed capacity at the end of 2025¹⁷, and wind and solar produced about 22% of electricity¹⁴. Coal still produced 34%, about two-thirds of it imported¹⁴, and about 67% of primary energy was imported in 2024¹⁵.

The demographic layer is younger than in many large economies: the median age was 34.9 years and 11.1% of the population was 65 or over in 2025¹²⁵. The country also hosts a large foreign and refugee population¹³⁰. Its population is concentrated in cities, with 93.6% living in province and district centres¹.

This edition therefore reads Turkiye’s risk as a property of the couplings between these forces. The matrix, risk objects, capability ladder and scenario that follow ask the same two questions: where does a shock travel next, and who holds the capability to stop it?

Figure 1.1How is Turkiye’s 2024 emissions total built up? Greenhouse-gas emissions by sector (Mt CO₂e)

Energy supplies 71.8% of the 2024 total. The 2035 limit of 643 Mt CO₂e includes land use and is set against a business-as-usual path of 1,109 Mt, so it cannot be read directly against this table²³⁴.

Item	Bar, scaled to the largest value	Value
Energy		419.9
Industrial processes		75.7
Agriculture		73.5
Waste		15.4

Source: as cited in the note to this figure. Year 2024.

Figure ID FIG-COUNTRY-TUR-2026-BASELINE-01-003

584.5Mt CO₂e

total emissions, 2024²

6.8t CO₂e

per person, 2024²

466Mt

below business as usual by 2035³

2053net zero

national goal³⁶

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The Turkiye matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

Figure 1.2Couplings between the five systems

Each line is one coupling from one system to another, drawn by the strength the edition assigns. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events.

Strong
Moderate
Weak

Source: this edition’s coupling matrix (Table 1.1); status Estimated.

Table 1.1Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system
From, to	WAT	ENE	FOO	HLT	BIO
WAT Water	·	STRONG nuclear cooling · hydro	STRONG irrigation · rain-fed yield	MODERATE drinking water	STRONG flows · wetlands
ENE Energy	MODERATE pumping · treatment	·	STRONG fuel · fertiliser · cold chain	STRONG facility power · cooling	MODERATE reservoirs · land use
FOO Food	MODERATE withdrawals · nutrients	WEAK biofuel feedstock	·	STRONG nutrition · food safety	STRONG land conversion
HLT Health	WEAK workforce	WEAK workforce	MODERATE labour · disease	·	WEAK residues
BIO Biodiversity	STRONG regulation · filtration	MODERATE fire on lines · biomass	STRONG pollination · soils	MODERATE zoonoses · smoke	·
Strength: strong, moderate or weak; a Nexus estimate (status Estimated) from cited evidence and analogue events. The scale is defined in Annex A.

Transmission paths

01
SEI → INF → HLT
A great earthquake damages housing and lifelines across a province group.
Reported 6 February 2023⁹
02
SEI → FIN
Recovery needs weigh on public finance and insurance pools.
Reported TERRA¹¹ · DASK²⁹
03
CLI → WAT → FOO
A dry year lowers reservoirs and groundwater and cuts the wheat harvest.
Reported 2025⁸²⁰²²
04
CLI → WAT → ENE
Persistent drought reduces hydropower output.
Reported Ember¹⁴
05
TRD → ENE → FIN
Import dependence passes fuel prices into the energy bill.
Reported 2025 bill¹⁶

1.4Reinforcing loops

A shock entering either system of a loop can return amplified through the other.

Table 1.2Pairs of systems where both directions are rated strong
Loop	First direction	Second direction
WAT and BIO	Water to biodiversity: flows · wetlands	Biodiversity to water: regulation · filtration
FOO and BIO	Food to biodiversity: land conversion	Biodiversity to food: pollination · soils
A causal-loop reading of the matrix (Sterman, Business Dynamics, 2000): structural, from estimated strengths, not a measured feedback.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

9Union of Chambers of Turkish Engineers and Architects (ed.), Report on the first year after the 6 February 2023 earthquakes, citing official figures. TMMOB, Ankara, 2024. Observation year 2023.back
10World Bank and GFDRR (eds.), Global Rapid Post-Disaster Damage Estimation (GRADE) Report: February 6, 2023 Kahramanmaraş Earthquakes, Türkiye Report. World Bank, Washington DC, February 2023. Observation year 2023.back
11Presidency of the Republic of Türkiye, Strategy and Budget Office (ed.), Türkiye Earthquakes Recovery and Reconstruction Assessment (TERRA). Ankara, March 2023, with UNDP, World Bank and EU support. Observation year 2023.back
12Al Jazeera (ed.), “Magnitude 6.2 earthquake jolts Türkiye’s Istanbul,” reporting AFAD data. Doha, 23 April 2025. Observation year 2025.back
13T. Parsons, “Recalculated probability of M ≥ 7 earthquakes beneath the Sea of Marmara, Turkey,” Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, vol. 109, B05304, 2004. doi:10.1029/2003JB002667. Observation period 2004–2034. doi:10.1029/2003JB002667 back
8Turkish State Meteorological Service (ed.), 2025 Climate Assessment of Türkiye (in Turkish). MGM, Ankara, 2026. Observation year 2025.back
21State Hydraulic Works (DSİ), per-person annual water availability 2000 and 2024, as reported by Anadolu Agency and Milliyet. Ankara, 2025. Observation year 2024.back
22Istanbul Water and Sewerage Administration (İSKİ), reservoir occupancy of 17 October 2025, as reported by TRT Haber. Istanbul, October 2025. Observation date 17 October 2025.back
23Reuters, “Sinkholes in Turkey’s agricultural heartland fuel farmers’ concerns,” with AFAD assessment of 684 sinkholes, as published by Al-Monitor and The Star. 23 December 2025. Observation year 2025.back
24General Directorate of Forestry (OGM), 2025 forest-fire statistics, as reported by Turkish Minute. Ankara, 11 March 2026. Observation year 2025.back
17Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources (ed.), installed power capacity at the end of 2025, as reported by SolarQuarter citing SHURA. Ankara, 22 January 2026. Observation year 2025.back
14Ember (ed.), Türkiye Electricity Review 2026. Ember, London, 2026. Observation year 2025.back
15Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources (ed.), Primary Energy Mix of Türkiye 2024, presentation at the IENE conference. Ankara and Athens, 19 March 2026. Observation year 2024.back
1Turkish Statistical Institute (ed.), Address Based Population Registration System Results 2025. TurkStat, Ankara, 9 February 2026. Observation year 2025.back
25Turkish Statistical Institute (ed.), Elderly Statistics 2025. TurkStat, Ankara, March 2026. Observation year 2025.back
30UNHCR (ed.), Annual Results Report 2025: Türkiye. UNHCR, Geneva, 2026. Observation year 2025.back
2Turkish Statistical Institute (ed.), Greenhouse Gas Emissions Statistics, 1990–2024. TurkStat, Ankara, 27 March 2026. Observation year 2024.back
3Ministry of Environment, Urbanisation and Climate Change (ed.), “Türkiye submits its second Nationally Determined Contribution to the United Nations.” Ankara, November 2025. Observation year 2035 target.back
4Climate Action Tracker (ed.), Türkiye: 2035 NDC assessment. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, Berlin, 2025–2026. Observation year 2035 target.back
6Grand National Assembly of Türkiye (ed.), Climate Law, Law No. 7552. Official Gazette No. 32951, Ankara, 9 July 2025. Observation year 2025.back
29Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool (DASK), compulsory earthquake insurance coverage, as reported by Daily Sabah. Ankara and Istanbul, August 2026. Observation year 2026.back
20Turkish Statistical Institute (ed.), Crop Production Statistics 2025, as reported by eFeedLink. Ankara, 30 December 2025. Observation year 2025.back
16SHURA Energy Transition Center (ed.), Türkiye Energy Transition Outlook 2025. SHURA, Istanbul, 2026. Observation year 2025.back

Turkiye 2026
Chapter 2

Key findings

Twelve findings carry the baseline. They are grouped by system, never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.

5 min read1 figure0 tables24 notesNR-COUNTRY-TUR-2026-BASELINE

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-TUR-2026-BASELINE-SEI-005

Figure 2.1The 2023 earthquakes: deaths and costs

Item	Bar, scaled to the largest value	Value
Deaths (thousands)		≈53.5
Recovery and reconstruction need, TERRA (USD billion)		≈103.6
Direct physical damage, GRADE (USD billion)		>34.2

Sources: TMMOB report on official figures⁹; World Bank GRADE¹⁰; TERRA¹¹. Units differ and the two cost figures measure different things.

Implication

What would move it

Progress on building-stock assessment and retrofit in the Marmara region, the next long-term seismic evaluations, and insurance take-up would each move this finding.

2.2Climate forcing

ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-TUR-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001
Greenhouse-gas emissions were 584.5 Mt CO₂e in 2024, up 5.3% on 2023, or 6.8 t per person; energy supplied 71.8% of the total. The 2035 limit is 643 Mt CO₂e including land use, with net zero by 2053.²³⁴
ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-TUR-2026-BASELINE-CLI-004
2025 averaged 15.1 °C, 1.2 °C above the 1991–2020 mean, with areal rainfall of 414.9 mm, 27.6% below that mean; 1,011 extreme events were recorded.⁸

2.3Energy

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-TUR-2026-BASELINE-ENE-002
Renewables were 62.3% of the 122.5 GW of installed power capacity at the end of 2025, and wind and solar produced about 22% of electricity; coal still produced 34%, about two-thirds of it from imported coal.¹⁴¹⁷
ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-TUR-2026-BASELINE-ENE-003
About 67% of primary energy was imported in 2024, and the 2025 energy import bill was USD 62.5 billion.¹⁵¹⁶

2.4SEI

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-TUR-2026-BASELINE-SEI-005
The earthquakes of 6 February 2023 killed about 53,500 people across 11 provinces home to about 14 million people; the government assessment put recovery needs at about USD 103.6 billion.⁹¹⁰¹¹
ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-TUR-2026-BASELINE-SEI-006
A magnitude 6.2 earthquake struck the Sea of Marmara off Istanbul on 23 April 2025, and a published estimate gives a 53 ± 18% probability of a magnitude 7 or larger event beneath the Sea of Marmara in 2004–2034.¹²¹³

2.5Water

ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-TUR-2026-BASELINE-WAT-007
Renewable water per person fell from 1,652 m³ in 2000 to about 1,308 m³ in 2024; Istanbul’s reservoirs held 24.7% on 17 October 2025, and about 684 sinkholes have been counted on the Konya Plain.²¹²²²³

2.6Food

ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-TUR-2026-BASELINE-FOO-008
The 2025 wheat harvest was about 17.9 million tonnes, down 13.7%; FAO estimates a record 22.8 million tonnes for 2026, and annual food inflation was about 38% in July 2026.¹⁹²⁰

2.7Health

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-TUR-2026-BASELINE-HLT-009
9.58 million people, 11.1% of the population, were aged 65 or over in 2025; the foreign population was 1.52 million, and about 2.4 million Syrians were under temporary protection at the end of 2025.¹²⁵³⁰

2.8Biodiversity

ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-TUR-2026-BASELINE-BIO-010
Wildfires burned 81,473 ha of forest land in 2025, and about 3.8 million ha were under legal protection at the end of 2025.²⁴²⁶

2.9Finance

ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-TUR-2026-BASELINE-FIN-011
The compulsory earthquake insurance pool covered 11.7 million homes, 58% of residential units, in 2026; about 42% were uninsured.²⁹

2.10Systemic

Expert inputEQL 2NRF-COUNTRY-TUR-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012
The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a drought year that cuts water, hydropower, wheat output and household budgets together. §9.3

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

9Union of Chambers of Turkish Engineers and Architects (ed.), Report on the first year after the 6 February 2023 earthquakes, citing official figures. TMMOB, Ankara, 2024. Observation year 2023.back
10World Bank and GFDRR (eds.), Global Rapid Post-Disaster Damage Estimation (GRADE) Report: February 6, 2023 Kahramanmaraş Earthquakes, Türkiye Report. World Bank, Washington DC, February 2023. Observation year 2023.back
11Presidency of the Republic of Türkiye, Strategy and Budget Office (ed.), Türkiye Earthquakes Recovery and Reconstruction Assessment (TERRA). Ankara, March 2023, with UNDP, World Bank and EU support. Observation year 2023.back
13T. Parsons, “Recalculated probability of M ≥ 7 earthquakes beneath the Sea of Marmara, Turkey,” Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, vol. 109, B05304, 2004. doi:10.1029/2003JB002667. Observation period 2004–2034. doi:10.1029/2003JB002667 back
2Turkish Statistical Institute (ed.), Greenhouse Gas Emissions Statistics, 1990–2024. TurkStat, Ankara, 27 March 2026. Observation year 2024.back
3Ministry of Environment, Urbanisation and Climate Change (ed.), “Türkiye submits its second Nationally Determined Contribution to the United Nations.” Ankara, November 2025. Observation year 2035 target.back
4Climate Action Tracker (ed.), Türkiye: 2035 NDC assessment. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, Berlin, 2025–2026. Observation year 2035 target.back
8Turkish State Meteorological Service (ed.), 2025 Climate Assessment of Türkiye (in Turkish). MGM, Ankara, 2026. Observation year 2025.back
14Ember (ed.), Türkiye Electricity Review 2026. Ember, London, 2026. Observation year 2025.back
17Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources (ed.), installed power capacity at the end of 2025, as reported by SolarQuarter citing SHURA. Ankara, 22 January 2026. Observation year 2025.back
15Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources (ed.), Primary Energy Mix of Türkiye 2024, presentation at the IENE conference. Ankara and Athens, 19 March 2026. Observation year 2024.back
16SHURA Energy Transition Center (ed.), Türkiye Energy Transition Outlook 2025. SHURA, Istanbul, 2026. Observation year 2025.back
12Al Jazeera (ed.), “Magnitude 6.2 earthquake jolts Türkiye’s Istanbul,” reporting AFAD data. Doha, 23 April 2025. Observation year 2025.back
21State Hydraulic Works (DSİ), per-person annual water availability 2000 and 2024, as reported by Anadolu Agency and Milliyet. Ankara, 2025. Observation year 2024.back
22Istanbul Water and Sewerage Administration (İSKİ), reservoir occupancy of 17 October 2025, as reported by TRT Haber. Istanbul, October 2025. Observation date 17 October 2025.back
23Reuters, “Sinkholes in Turkey’s agricultural heartland fuel farmers’ concerns,” with AFAD assessment of 684 sinkholes, as published by Al-Monitor and The Star. 23 December 2025. Observation year 2025.back
19Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Türkiye. FAO, Rome, reference date 7 September 2026. Observation years 2025–2026.back
20Turkish Statistical Institute (ed.), Crop Production Statistics 2025, as reported by eFeedLink. Ankara, 30 December 2025. Observation year 2025.back
1Turkish Statistical Institute (ed.), Address Based Population Registration System Results 2025. TurkStat, Ankara, 9 February 2026. Observation year 2025.back
25Turkish Statistical Institute (ed.), Elderly Statistics 2025. TurkStat, Ankara, March 2026. Observation year 2025.back
30UNHCR (ed.), Annual Results Report 2025: Türkiye. UNHCR, Geneva, 2026. Observation year 2025.back
24General Directorate of Forestry (OGM), 2025 forest-fire statistics, as reported by Turkish Minute. Ankara, 11 March 2026. Observation year 2025.back
26Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (ed.), legally protected areas at the end of 2025, as reported by Daily Sabah. Ankara, 2026. Observation year 2025.back
29Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool (DASK), compulsory earthquake insurance coverage, as reported by Daily Sabah. Ankara and Istanbul, August 2026. Observation year 2026.back

Turkiye 2026
Chapter 3

Systems and sectors at baseline

5 min read0 figures2 tables16 notesNR-COUNTRY-TUR-2026-BASELINE

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

WAT · Water

Renewable water per person, a year

1,308m³

Down from 1,652 m³ in 2000, and below the 1,700 m³ level commonly used as the water-stress threshold.

Reported2024DSİ via press²¹

ENE · Energy

Renewables in installed power capacity

62.3%

Coal still produced 34% of electricity in 2025.

Reported2025ETKB¹⁷ · Ember¹⁴

FOO · Food

Wheat harvest

17.9Mt

Down 13.7% on 2024; FAO estimates a record 22.8 Mt for 2026.

Reported2025TurkStat via press²⁰ · FAO¹⁹

HLT · Health

Population aged 65 or over

11.1%

Median age 34.9 years; heat-health data are not bound in this edition.

Reported2025TurkStat²⁵¹

BIO · Biodiversity

Forest land burned

81,473ha

3,224 fires; the cause of 1,012 fires, burning 37,626 ha, was not determined.

Reported2025OGM via press²⁴

SYS · Cross-system

Recovery and reconstruction need after the 2023 earthquakes

103.6USD billion

About 53,500 deaths in 11 provinces.

Reported2023TERRA¹¹ · TMMOB⁹

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries risk into other systems.

Table 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
Domain	Posture at baseline	Coupling	Status
WAT	About 1,308 m³ per person; reservoir and groundwater stress in drought years; Konya sinkholes.	WAT → FOO · WAT ↔ ENE	Reported EQL 3
ENE	Renewables are 62.3% of capacity; coal still 34% of electricity; about 67% of primary energy imported.	ENE ← TRD · ENE → all	Reported EQL 4
FOO	Wheat output fell 13.7% in 2025 and is estimated to recover in 2026; food inflation about 38% in July 2026.	FOO ← WAT, CLI, TRD	Reported EQL 3
HLT	Younger than many peers; 11.1% aged 65 or over; heat-health burden not bound.	HLT ← CLI, SEI	Reported EQL 3
BIO	81,473 ha of forest burned in 2025; protected-area share not bound to one definition.	BIO ↔ WAT, FOO	Reported EQL 3
CLI	2025 was 1.2 °C above the 1991–2020 mean with rainfall 27.6% below it.	forcing on all systems	Reported EQL 5
INF	Dense urban housing and lifeline stock in seismic zones; condition not bound at public-safe resolution.	INF → all	Expert input EQL 2
FIN	About 58% of residential units hold compulsory earthquake cover; recovery needs of USD 103.6 billion in 2023.	FIN ← SEI, CLI	Reported EQL 3
DAT	Digital dependencies of lifelines not mapped at public-safe resolution.	DAT → ENE, FIN	Expert input EQL 2
AIC	Data-centre and compute demand for power and water not bound in this edition.	AIC → ENE, WAT	Expert input EQL 2
MIN	Imported fuels and coal; critical-mineral dependence not bound.	MIN ← TRD	Inferred EQL 2
TRD	A large trading economy that imports most of its primary energy; USD 62.5 billion energy bill in 2025.	TRD → all	Reported EQL 4

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened on the same grammar, so that later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Table 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
Code	Sector	Baseline evidence	Exposure to watch	Evidence coverage
GS-00	Cross-system	compound seismic, drought and import stress	drought year; Marmara earthquake	PARTIAL
GS-01	Water	per-person supply 1,308 m³²¹	drought; groundwater depletion	PARTIAL
GS-02	Energy	renewables 62.3% of capacity¹⁷	import disruption; hydropower under drought	GOOD
GS-03	Food	wheat 17.9 Mt in 2025²⁰	short harvest; import prices	PARTIAL
GS-04	Health	median age 34.9¹	heat and care load; data not bound	THIN
GS-05	Finance	recovery need USD 103.6 billion¹¹	catastrophe fiscal cost	PARTIAL
GS-06	Development	urban population share 93.6%¹	service demand in cities	PARTIAL
GS-07	Climate	2025 at +1.2 °C⁸	heat and drought	GOOD
GS-08	Disaster	official records and assessments¹⁰¹¹	great earthquakes; fire	PARTIAL
GS-09	Infrastructure	power fleet 122.5 GW¹⁷	seismic and fire exposure	PARTIAL
GS-10	Cities	concentrated urban population¹	quake, heat and supply stress	PARTIAL
GS-11	Biodiversity	about 3.8 million ha protected²⁶	fire; land-use change	PARTIAL
GS-12	Earth observation	national climate and seismic monitoring⁸¹²	continuity	GOOD
GS-13	Cyber and digital	dependencies not yet mapped	systemic outages	THIN
GS-14	Policy	Climate Law in force⁶	implementation rules	PARTIAL
GS-15	Science	peer-reviewed seismic literature¹³	translation to provinces	PARTIAL

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

21State Hydraulic Works (DSİ), per-person annual water availability 2000 and 2024, as reported by Anadolu Agency and Milliyet. Ankara, 2025. Observation year 2024.back
17Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources (ed.), installed power capacity at the end of 2025, as reported by SolarQuarter citing SHURA. Ankara, 22 January 2026. Observation year 2025.back
14Ember (ed.), Türkiye Electricity Review 2026. Ember, London, 2026. Observation year 2025.back
20Turkish Statistical Institute (ed.), Crop Production Statistics 2025, as reported by eFeedLink. Ankara, 30 December 2025. Observation year 2025.back
19Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Türkiye. FAO, Rome, reference date 7 September 2026. Observation years 2025–2026.back
25Turkish Statistical Institute (ed.), Elderly Statistics 2025. TurkStat, Ankara, March 2026. Observation year 2025.back
1Turkish Statistical Institute (ed.), Address Based Population Registration System Results 2025. TurkStat, Ankara, 9 February 2026. Observation year 2025.back
24General Directorate of Forestry (OGM), 2025 forest-fire statistics, as reported by Turkish Minute. Ankara, 11 March 2026. Observation year 2025.back
11Presidency of the Republic of Türkiye, Strategy and Budget Office (ed.), Türkiye Earthquakes Recovery and Reconstruction Assessment (TERRA). Ankara, March 2023, with UNDP, World Bank and EU support. Observation year 2023.back
9Union of Chambers of Turkish Engineers and Architects (ed.), Report on the first year after the 6 February 2023 earthquakes, citing official figures. TMMOB, Ankara, 2024. Observation year 2023.back
8Turkish State Meteorological Service (ed.), 2025 Climate Assessment of Türkiye (in Turkish). MGM, Ankara, 2026. Observation year 2025.back
10World Bank and GFDRR (eds.), Global Rapid Post-Disaster Damage Estimation (GRADE) Report: February 6, 2023 Kahramanmaraş Earthquakes, Türkiye Report. World Bank, Washington DC, February 2023. Observation year 2023.back
26Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (ed.), legally protected areas at the end of 2025, as reported by Daily Sabah. Ankara, 2026. Observation year 2025.back
12Al Jazeera (ed.), “Magnitude 6.2 earthquake jolts Türkiye’s Istanbul,” reporting AFAD data. Doha, 23 April 2025. Observation year 2025.back
6Grand National Assembly of Türkiye (ed.), Climate Law, Law No. 7552. Official Gazette No. 32951, Ankara, 9 July 2025. Observation year 2025.back
13T. Parsons, “Recalculated probability of M ≥ 7 earthquakes beneath the Sea of Marmara, Turkey,” Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, vol. 109, B05304, 2004. doi:10.1029/2003JB002667. Observation period 2004–2034. doi:10.1029/2003JB002667 back

Turkiye 2026
Chapter 4

Risks and capability

Four risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.

3 min read0 figures1 table8 notesNR-COUNTRY-TUR-2026-BASELINE

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

ReportedEQL 3RSK-TUR-SEI-001
Marmara-region or North Anatolian great earthquake
Driver
rupture of faults beneath or near the Sea of Marmara
Exposure
the Istanbul region and nearby provinces
Vulnerability
building-stock condition not bound in this edition
Capacity
compulsory insurance pool; response agency
Cascade
SEI → INF, ENE, HLT, FIN
Horizon
30 years
ReportedEQL 4RSK-TUR-CLI-002
Multi-year drought and water stress
Driver
lower rainfall and higher temperature
Exposure
cities, irrigated farmland, hydropower
Vulnerability
groundwater drawdown; reservoir storage
Capacity
storage and transfer works; demand management not bound
Cascade
CLI → WAT → FOO, ENE
Horizon
annual to 5 years
ReportedEQL 3RSK-TUR-ENE-003
Fuel and gas import disruption
Driver
price spike or supply interruption
Exposure
power, industry, households
Vulnerability
about 67% of primary energy imported
Capacity
renewable fleet; storage depth not bound
Cascade
TRD → ENE → FOO, FIN
Horizon
1–5 years
ReportedEQL 3RSK-TUR-FOO-004
Short harvest and import price exposure
Driver
drought or frost in a growing season
Exposure
wheat, feed and household food budgets
Vulnerability
dependence on imports in short years
Capacity
stock and trade policy not bound
Cascade
CLI → FOO → FIN
Horizon
seasonal

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Table 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
Function	Level	Strongest public evidence at baseline
Prevention and mitigation	NOT BOUND	source: building and land-use registers · blocker: not retrieved by evidence close
Monitoring and observation	EXISTS	national climate monitoring and seismic reporting are in continuous use⁸¹²
Early warning	NOT BOUND	source: AFAD and MGM warning records · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
Preparedness and planning	NOT BOUND	source: national disaster plans · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
Redundancy and reserves	NOT BOUND	source: energy, grain and water reserve data · blocker: not published in bound form
Response	LISTED	national forest-fire response recorded 3,224 fires in 2025²⁴; wider response capacity not bound
Continuity of critical services	NOT BOUND	source: utility restoration records · blocker: not retrieved
Recovery	LISTED	government recovery assessment of USD 103.6 billion¹¹; delivery not bound
Adaptation	LISTED	Climate Law in force from 9 July 2025⁶
Social protection	NOT BOUND	source: social-security statistics · blocker: not retrieved
Finance and insurance	EXISTS	compulsory earthquake insurance covers 58% of residential units²⁹
Institutional coordination	LISTED	national disaster agency reports hazard events¹²; coordination evidence not bound
Technical infrastructure	LISTED	122.5 GW installed power capacity¹⁷; network condition not bound
Workforce	NOT BOUND	source: sector registers · blocker: not retrieved
Research capacity	LISTED	peer-reviewed seismic hazard literature exists¹³
A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

8Turkish State Meteorological Service (ed.), 2025 Climate Assessment of Türkiye (in Turkish). MGM, Ankara, 2026. Observation year 2025.back
12Al Jazeera (ed.), “Magnitude 6.2 earthquake jolts Türkiye’s Istanbul,” reporting AFAD data. Doha, 23 April 2025. Observation year 2025.back
24General Directorate of Forestry (OGM), 2025 forest-fire statistics, as reported by Turkish Minute. Ankara, 11 March 2026. Observation year 2025.back
11Presidency of the Republic of Türkiye, Strategy and Budget Office (ed.), Türkiye Earthquakes Recovery and Reconstruction Assessment (TERRA). Ankara, March 2023, with UNDP, World Bank and EU support. Observation year 2023.back
6Grand National Assembly of Türkiye (ed.), Climate Law, Law No. 7552. Official Gazette No. 32951, Ankara, 9 July 2025. Observation year 2025.back
29Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool (DASK), compulsory earthquake insurance coverage, as reported by Daily Sabah. Ankara and Istanbul, August 2026. Observation year 2026.back
17Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources (ed.), installed power capacity at the end of 2025, as reported by SolarQuarter citing SHURA. Ankara, 22 January 2026. Observation year 2025.back
13T. Parsons, “Recalculated probability of M ≥ 7 earthquakes beneath the Sea of Marmara, Turkey,” Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, vol. 109, B05304, 2004. doi:10.1029/2003JB002667. Observation period 2004–2034. doi:10.1029/2003JB002667 back

Turkiye 2026
Chapter 5

A drought year across water, hydropower, wheat and budgets

A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

2 min read0 figures0 tables7 notesNR-COUNTRY-TUR-2026-BASELINE

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-TUR-DRT-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline: the 2026 reference state in this edition
Drivers: a year of rainfall about 25% below the 1991–2020 mean, as in 2025⁸, followed by a second dry winter
Analogues: 2025 drought year; hydropower and wheat outcomes of 2025¹⁴²⁰
Interventions: none modelled: the specification describes the unmitigated case
Run state: narrative specification; quantified Foundry run scheduled for Q1 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

1
CLI → WAT
reservoirs and groundwater fall; city supply is restricted
2025²²²³
2
CLI → ENE
hydropower output falls; other plants and imports fill the gap
2025¹⁴
3
CLI → FOO
wheat output falls; imports rise
2025²⁰
4
FOO → FIN
food prices pass into household budgets
2026¹⁹
5
WAT → BIO
dry forests burn more; protected and unprotected land is affected
2025²⁴
6
WAT → INF
groundwater drawdown opens sinkholes on farmland
2025²³

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-TUR-DRT-01 would travel through Turkiye’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

Step	What happens	Source
01 Climate to water	Reservoirs and groundwater fall; city supply is restricted. Analogue or source: 2025 [22] [23].	Edition TUR, scenario SCN-TUR-DRT-01, step 1
02 Climate to energy	Hydropower output falls; other plants and imports fill the gap. Analogue or source: 2025 [14].	Edition TUR, scenario SCN-TUR-DRT-01, step 2
03 Climate to food	Wheat output falls; imports rise. Analogue or source: 2025 [20].	Edition TUR, scenario SCN-TUR-DRT-01, step 3
04 Food to finance	Food prices pass into household budgets. Analogue or source: 2026 [19].	Edition TUR, scenario SCN-TUR-DRT-01, step 4
05 Water to biodiversity	Dry forests burn more; protected and unprotected land is affected. Analogue or source: 2025 [24].	Edition TUR, scenario SCN-TUR-DRT-01, step 5
06 Water to infrastructure	Groundwater drawdown opens sinkholes on farmland. Analogue or source: 2025 [23].	Edition TUR, scenario SCN-TUR-DRT-01, step 6

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: Turkiye 2026, scenario SCN-TUR-DRT-01 (2026); Turkiye 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

8Turkish State Meteorological Service (ed.), 2025 Climate Assessment of Türkiye (in Turkish). MGM, Ankara, 2026. Observation year 2025.back
14Ember (ed.), Türkiye Electricity Review 2026. Ember, London, 2026. Observation year 2025.back
20Turkish Statistical Institute (ed.), Crop Production Statistics 2025, as reported by eFeedLink. Ankara, 30 December 2025. Observation year 2025.back
22Istanbul Water and Sewerage Administration (İSKİ), reservoir occupancy of 17 October 2025, as reported by TRT Haber. Istanbul, October 2025. Observation date 17 October 2025.back
23Reuters, “Sinkholes in Turkey’s agricultural heartland fuel farmers’ concerns,” with AFAD assessment of 684 sinkholes, as published by Al-Monitor and The Star. 23 December 2025. Observation year 2025.back
19Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Türkiye. FAO, Rome, reference date 7 September 2026. Observation years 2025–2026.back
24General Directorate of Forestry (OGM), 2025 forest-fire statistics, as reported by Turkish Minute. Ankara, 11 March 2026. Observation year 2025.back

Turkiye 2026
Chapter 6

Readings from the other desks

The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument. The other desks’ own editions of this subject are listed first, as cross-references, not copies.

11 min read0 figures8 tables31 notesNR-COUNTRY-TUR-2026-BASELINE

6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject

Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.

Desk	Edition	State
GCRI Systems Evidence	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle
GRF Public Deliberation	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle
GRA Capital Readiness	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle
Standards Progress	Outside this desk’s remit	Not in remit
Academy Capability	Outside this desk’s remit	Not in remit
Index Measurement	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle

6.2Three lenses

One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports a coupled reading of Turkiye’s risk: great earthquakes dominate the tail, drought has become a recurring stress, and import dependence carries shocks into energy and food. Evidence is strongest for emissions, climate and the 2023 event, and weakest for heat-health, lifeline continuity and building-stock condition.

CLI-001 · SEI-005 · SYS-012

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people risk arrives as an earthquake, a dry summer or a price rise. The baseline asks that public debate weigh how drought and import prices reach household budgets, and how earthquake recovery is shared between households, insurers and the state.

FOO-008 · FIN-011 · SEI-005

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. About 58% of residential units hold compulsory earthquake cover, a national emissions trading system is in pilot preparation, and recovery needs after 2023 were large¹¹²⁹⁷. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an approval.

FIN-011 · SEI-005

NEXUS

Synthesis

Turkiye is building clean power quickly, yet water, food and fuel still depend on rainfall and imports. The 2027 programme should test the drought pathway, map lifeline dependencies for one metropolitan area, and measure fuel and wheat import exposure.

SYS-012 · A-01 · A-02

6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions

How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for Turkiye. The standards are preparatory working drafts (October 2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.

Table 6.1The quarterly rhythm every edition follows
Quarter	Edition	Question	Boundary
Q1	State and Agenda	What matters this year, and what is the starting position?	observed baseline stays distinct from planned work
Q2	Evidence and Build	What new evidence and capability have been developed?	a configured capability is not a validated result
Q3	Stress Test and Readiness	What do scenarios and tests reveal?	simulated loss or performance is not observed impact
Q4	Annual Synthesis and Renewal	What did the year establish, and what changes next?	release follows review, not event publicity deadlines

Table 6.2Who contributes what each quarter
Steward or body	Role	Contribution route
GCRI Canada	Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat; publisher of record; technical truth (key T)	science and practice communities · GCRI gateway
The Global Risks Forum (GRF)	leadership, dialogue and the Universe programme; public meaning (key M)	policy, Universe and national adoption · GRF gateway
The Global Risks Alliance (GRA)	finance, insurance and development readiness; capital meaning (key F)	finance and insurance · GRA gateway
Nexus Standards	preparatory drafts on vocabulary, hazards, indicators and methods	Standards site · working groups HAZ, IND, MTH, FIN, AI
Risk Academy	learning pathways tied to the agenda questions	Academy gateway · learning by review
Turkiye	national pathway: Desk, Leadership Council, Consortium, Working Groups	national Commons room

Standards drafts used in this edition

Risk vocabulary NRS-C1 (424 terms) for terms in the glossary
Hazard atlas NHS-1 1.1.0 (905 hazards in 120 families) for risk objects
Seven risk classes: global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier-tech

Standards calendar to watch

Founding calls from 20 October 2026; working groups meet from 5 November 2026
Inaugural Global Standards Council session, 12 January 2027
Quarterly reviews in March, June, September and December, aligned with each edition

6.4GCRI reading: the model card

GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology

6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.

The 2023 earthquakes showed how one event reaches housing, health, power and public finance together. The baseline treats a Marmara-region earthquake as a coupling problem, not as a building problem alone.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 01

The long tail is seismic

A dry 2025 lowered reservoirs, cut the wheat harvest and weighed on hydropower. A second dry year would test all three at once.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 02

Drought is no longer an exception

Turkiye’s renewable capacity grew quickly, but coal and imports still carry the system. Energy security is a trade question as much as a build question.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 03

Clean capacity, imported security

This edition leaves several cells empty and names the source that would fill each. A blank with a blocker is more useful than an estimate without a source.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 04

Gaps are findings too

6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: q1 2027 readiness pack

The registers that open the first operational quarter. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.

Table 6.3Q1 2027 readiness pack
Item	Register	State at baseline	First Q1 2027 entry
E1	National risk state delta	baseline set by this edition	changes against the baseline
E2	WEFH+B state delta	five system readings set	indicator updates and freshness
E3	Agenda and Portfolio movement	eight agenda items · 7 proposed objects	admission decisions
E4	NWG delivery register	no groups yet	first monthly outputs
E5	NNC capability register	membership opens in Q1 2027	first contributions
E6	NLC questions and challenges	none yet	first challenge log
E7	Foundry technical state	environment prepared	first sealed cut
E8	Publication candidates	twelve findings carried forward	PUBLISH · HOLD dispositions
E9	Universe readiness	one candidate mission	admission and role spine
E10	Correction register	none	first correction cycle

Publication dispositions

Publish
Hold
Needs evidence
Restricted
Superseded

6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Instruments that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.

IN FORCE
ADOPTED
SUBMITTED
UNDER REVIEW
PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY

Table 6.4Standards and regulatory watch
Instrument	Body	Scope	Status	Relevance
Paris Agreement · second NDC, 466 Mt below business as usual, 643 Mt in 2035³³⁵	UNFCCC · Turkiye	national	SUBMITTED 2025	emissions pathway
Climate Law, Law No. 7552⁶	Government of Turkiye	national	IN FORCE 2025	net zero 2053 · legal basis
National emissions trading system under the Climate Law⁷	Government of Turkiye	large installations	PILOT PREPARATION	carbon pricing
Kunming-Montreal Framework³⁴	CBD	international	ADOPTED 2022	30by30
Sendai Framework³³	UNDRR	international	ADOPTED 2015	disaster risk reduction
Compulsory earthquake insurance²⁹	DASK	residential units	IN FORCE	protection gap

Changed since 2024

Turkiye submitted its second climate contribution in November 2025³
The Climate Law entered into force on 9 July 2025⁶
Implementing rules for the emissions trading system are in preparation⁷

To watch in 2027

The next biennial transparency report and its method note for the 2035 limit⁴⁵
Pilot phase of the national emissions trading system⁷
Akkuyu Unit 1 start-up and its effect on the power mix¹⁸

6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments

The review behind this edition covers peer-reviewed science, national and international assessments and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Full systematic reviews begin in Q1 2027 for each agenda item.

Review protocol

Question: What does the published evidence establish about Turkiye’s coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity risks?
Sources searched: peer-reviewed literature; national and international assessments; official releases; industry loss data
Window: releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026
Selection: sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition
Next step: systematic reviews for agenda items A-01 to A-05 in Q1 2027

Table 6.5Science and assessments
Reference	Type	Year	Role	Used for
Lee and Romero (eds.)³²	assessment	2023	context	forcing
McElwee et al. (eds.)³⁸	assessment	2024	framework	nexus interlinkages
Zscheischler et al.³⁹	journal article	2018	framework	compound events
MGM climate assessment⁸	assessment	2026	supports	warming and drought
Parsons¹³	journal article	2004	supports	seismic probability

Table 6.6Institutional reports
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
World Bank GRADE report¹⁰	World Bank	2023	supports	tail risk
TERRA assessment¹¹	Government of Turkiye	2023	supports	recovery needs
Second climate contribution³⁴⁴	Government of Turkiye	2025	supports	emissions pathway
IEA energy policy review⁴⁶	IEA	2021	context	energy
OECD Economic Survey³¹	OECD	2025	context	macro

Table 6.7Official statistics and national sources
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
GHG inventory²	TurkStat	2026	supports	emissions
Population results¹	TurkStat	2026	supports	profile
Elderly statistics²⁵	TurkStat	2026	supports	ageing
Life tables⁴⁵ · health statistics⁴⁰	TurkStat · WHO	2025	context	life expectancy, not bound
Crop monitoring¹⁹	FAO	2026	supports	food

Table 6.8Industry, loss data and international sources
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
Catastrophe insurance data²⁹	DASK	2026	supports	protection gap
Refugee operations³⁰	UNHCR	2026	supports	population pressure
Electricity review¹⁴	Ember	2026	supports	power mix
Energy transition outlook¹⁶	SHURA	2026	context	energy bill
NatCatSERVICE³⁷	Munich Re	2026	context	global losses

Where the evidence agrees

Turkiye is warming and 2025 was dry⁸
Great earthquakes remain a long-term hazard near Istanbul¹³
Energy imports expose the economy to price shocks¹⁵¹⁶

Where it is unsettled

How to express long-term earthquake probability for public use, since the cited estimate is from 2004¹³
How fast clean power can replace imported coal and gas¹⁴
How much heat mortality is recorded

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

11Presidency of the Republic of Türkiye, Strategy and Budget Office (ed.), Türkiye Earthquakes Recovery and Reconstruction Assessment (TERRA). Ankara, March 2023, with UNDP, World Bank and EU support. Observation year 2023.back
29Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool (DASK), compulsory earthquake insurance coverage, as reported by Daily Sabah. Ankara and Istanbul, August 2026. Observation year 2026.back
7International Carbon Action Partnership (ed.), “Türkiye adopts landmark climate law paving way for national ETS.” ICAP, Berlin, July 2025. Observation year 2025.back
3Ministry of Environment, Urbanisation and Climate Change (ed.), “Türkiye submits its second Nationally Determined Contribution to the United Nations.” Ankara, November 2025. Observation year 2035 target.back
35UNFCCC (ed.), Paris Agreement. United Nations, Paris, 2015. Observation year 2015.back
6Grand National Assembly of Türkiye (ed.), Climate Law, Law No. 7552. Official Gazette No. 32951, Ankara, 9 July 2025. Observation year 2025.back
34Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Observation year 2022.back
33UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Observation year 2015.back
4Climate Action Tracker (ed.), Türkiye: 2035 NDC assessment. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, Berlin, 2025–2026. Observation year 2035 target.back
5University of Maryland Center for Global Sustainability (ed.), 2035 NDC Assessment: Türkiye. UMD CGS, College Park, August 2026. Observation year 2035 target.back
18Engineering News (ed.), “Akkuyu nuclear power plant project, Türkiye: update.” Johannesburg, 4 September 2026, with Interfax report of 21 September 2026. Observation year 2026.back
32H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. Observation year 2023.back
38P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. Observation year 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054 back
39J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Observation year 2018.back
8Turkish State Meteorological Service (ed.), 2025 Climate Assessment of Türkiye (in Turkish). MGM, Ankara, 2026. Observation year 2025.back
13T. Parsons, “Recalculated probability of M ≥ 7 earthquakes beneath the Sea of Marmara, Turkey,” Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, vol. 109, B05304, 2004. doi:10.1029/2003JB002667. Observation period 2004–2034. doi:10.1029/2003JB002667 back
10World Bank and GFDRR (eds.), Global Rapid Post-Disaster Damage Estimation (GRADE) Report: February 6, 2023 Kahramanmaraş Earthquakes, Türkiye Report. World Bank, Washington DC, February 2023. Observation year 2023.back
44Climate Analytics (ed.), 1.5°C national pathway explorer: Türkiye. Climate Analytics, Berlin, 2025. Observation year 2035 pathway.back
46International Energy Agency (ed.), Türkiye 2021: Energy Policy Review. IEA, Paris, 2021. Observation year 2020.back
31OECD (ed.), OECD Economic Surveys: Türkiye 2025. OECD Publishing, Paris, April 2025. Observation year 2025.back
2Turkish Statistical Institute (ed.), Greenhouse Gas Emissions Statistics, 1990–2024. TurkStat, Ankara, 27 March 2026. Observation year 2024.back
1Turkish Statistical Institute (ed.), Address Based Population Registration System Results 2025. TurkStat, Ankara, 9 February 2026. Observation year 2025.back
25Turkish Statistical Institute (ed.), Elderly Statistics 2025. TurkStat, Ankara, March 2026. Observation year 2025.back
45Turkish Statistical Institute (ed.), Life Tables, 2021–2023. TurkStat, Ankara, 2024. Observation years 2021–2023.back
40World Health Organization (ed.), World Health Statistics 2025. WHO, Geneva, 2025. Observation year 2023.back
19Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Türkiye. FAO, Rome, reference date 7 September 2026. Observation years 2025–2026.back
30UNHCR (ed.), Annual Results Report 2025: Türkiye. UNHCR, Geneva, 2026. Observation year 2025.back
14Ember (ed.), Türkiye Electricity Review 2026. Ember, London, 2026. Observation year 2025.back
16SHURA Energy Transition Center (ed.), Türkiye Energy Transition Outlook 2025. SHURA, Istanbul, 2026. Observation year 2025.back
37Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026. Observation year 2025.back
15Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources (ed.), Primary Energy Mix of Türkiye 2024, presentation at the IENE conference. Ankara and Athens, 19 March 2026. Observation year 2024.back

Turkiye 2026
Chapter 7

The 2027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due at the Q1 2027 cut.

5 min read0 figures6 tables5 notesNR-COUNTRY-TUR-2026-BASELINE

7.1Questions for the operational series

A-01
How would a second drought year change reservoir storage, hydropower and urban supply in Istanbul and Ankara?
INI-TUR-WAT-01 · drought and supply; first output: storage and supply baseline for two cities.
A-02
How deep are fuel and gas stocks against a prolonged import disruption?
INI-TUR-ENE-02 · import resilience; first output: stock-and-route register.
A-03
How exposed are wheat, feed and fertiliser supply to a short harvest and import shocks?
INI-TUR-FOO-03 · food import exposure; first output: commodity dependence table.
A-04
How would a Marmara-region earthquake cut power, transport, water and care together?
INI-TUR-SEI-04 · lifeline continuity; first output: dependency graph for one metropolitan area.
A-05
Where do earthquake and fire losses fall on the uninsured, and on public budgets?
INI-TUR-FIN-05 · protection gap; first output: peril-by-province loss table.
A-06
How do heat and wildfire load health and care in summer?
To be admitted when heat-health data are bound; first output: scoping note.
A-07
How do land-use change and fire affect ecosystem condition outside protected areas?
To be admitted in Q1 2027; first output: scoping note.
A-08
Which capabilities have been tested in real disasters, and which are only planned?
National capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for admission at the Q1 2027 alignment. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

Table 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
ID	Object	Kind	Question	State
INI-TUR-WAT-01	Drought and urban supply baseline	Initiative	A-01	PROPOSED
INI-TUR-ENE-02	Fuel and gas import resilience	Initiative	A-02	PROPOSED
INI-TUR-FOO-03	Food and feed import exposure	Initiative	A-03	PROPOSED
INI-TUR-SEI-04	Lifeline continuity after great earthquakes	Initiative	A-04	PROPOSED
INI-TUR-FIN-05	Disaster protection gap	Initiative	A-05	PROPOSED
PRJ-TUR-WAT-01a	Two-city storage and supply graph	Project	A-01	PROPOSED
MSN-TUR-2027-01	Drought-year compound Universe mission	Mission	A-01	Candidate

7.3The pathway

Turkiye is the national pathway through which the Nexus operating system will run in Turkiye from 2027. At baseline the pathway is designed and its records are prepared; its councils and working groups are constituted from Q1 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next, nothing more.

01
One National Agenda
bounded national questions for the year
DRAFT 2027 · agenda review at the Q1 alignment
02
National Desk
coordination, records, routing and continuity
DESIGNED · constituted in Q1 2027
03
National Model
the country as a system of systems
v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with the first Foundry cut
04
National Portfolio
risks, capabilities, initiatives, projects, missions
7 PROPOSED · admission at the Q1 alignment
05
Foundry
continuous computational environment
PREPARED · first sealed cut NQ-TUR-2027-Q1
06
Reports
quarterly and annual publication
BASELINE ISSUED · Q1 2027 · State & Agenda
07
Universe
annual proving environment
CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate set in 2027
08
Evidence and correction
after-action, correction and renewal
OPEN · first correction cycle in Q2 2027

7.4Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission

01
Mandate
02
Core Build · 1 month
03
Action · 1 week
04
Evidence seal
05
Portfolio correction
06
Next mandate

Table 7.2Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission
Item	Record	State	Timing
F1	Annual mandate record	PLANNED	after the Q2 2027 alignment
F2	Core Build record	PLANNED	one month before the exercise
F3	Exercise evidence	PLANNED	during the Action week
F4	Decision packets	PLANNED	exercise state only
F5	Proof receipts	PLANNED	scoped to each recorded check
F6	After-action report	PLANNED	within one quarter
F7	Upgrade docket	PLANNED	routed to the Portfolio
F8	Portfolio renewal	PLANNED	Q4 2027 annual edition
F9	Public synthesis	PLANNED	public-safe extracts only

Mission

ID: MSN-TUR-2027-01 · Drought-year compound Universe mission
Role spine: Leadership sponsor (NLC) · Institutional anchor (NNC) · Mission lead (NWG)
Receiving actors: to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

Table 7.3Handoffs and routing
Finding	Routed to	Purpose	Class
CLI-001 · emissions	public record	reference for the 2027 series	PUBLIC
ENE-003 · imports	INI-TUR-ENE-02	import resilience	PUBLIC
CLI-004 · 2025 climate	INI-TUR-WAT-01	drought and supply	PUBLIC
SEI-005 · 2023 earthquakes	INI-TUR-SEI-04	lifeline continuity	PUBLIC
WAT-007 · water	INI-TUR-WAT-01	two-city graph	PUBLIC
FOO-008 · wheat	INI-TUR-FOO-03	import exposure	PUBLIC
FIN-011 · insurance	INI-TUR-FIN-05 · key F review	protection gap	PUBLIC
SYS-012 · compound pathway	MSN-TUR-2027-01	Universe candidate	CONSORTIUM

Table 7.4Routing rules by publication class
Class	Where it goes	Who can see it
PUBLIC	the published edition and its evidence bundle	anyone
CONSORTIUM	governed rooms of the national pathway	consortium members under agreement
CONTROLLED	need-to-know channels	named competent actors only

7.6Feeds and signal register

Table 7.5Feeds watched from Q1 2027
Feed	Producer	Latency	Feeds into
Earthquake information	AFAD	real time	SEI findings
Climate monitoring and drought maps	Turkish State Meteorological Service	monthly and annual	CLI-004
Reservoir and water data	State Hydraulic Works · İSKİ	periodic	WAT-007
Electricity data	EPİAŞ transparency platform	hourly	ENE findings
Crop and population statistics	TurkStat	annual	FOO-008 · HLT-009
Forest-fire counts	General Directorate of Forestry	seasonal	BIO-010
Insurance take-up	DASK	periodic	FIN-011

Escalation routes

none · keep monitoring
research question
project
risk object
quarterly publication
signal report

Table 7.6Signals at baseline
ID	Signal	Corroboration	Systems	Route
SIG-TUR-001	A dry 2025 followed by a record wheat estimate for 2026¹⁹²⁰	CORROBORATED	CLI · FOO	risk object RSK-TUR-CLI-002
SIG-TUR-002	Repeated earthquakes: 2023 and a magnitude 6.2 event in 2025⁹¹²	CORROBORATED	SEI · all	research question A-04
SIG-TUR-003	Wind and solar above 20% of electricity in 2025¹⁴	CORROBORATED	ENE · CLI	initiative A-02

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

19Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Türkiye. FAO, Rome, reference date 7 September 2026. Observation years 2025–2026.back
20Turkish Statistical Institute (ed.), Crop Production Statistics 2025, as reported by eFeedLink. Ankara, 30 December 2025. Observation year 2025.back
9Union of Chambers of Turkish Engineers and Architects (ed.), Report on the first year after the 6 February 2023 earthquakes, citing official figures. TMMOB, Ankara, 2024. Observation year 2023.back
12Al Jazeera (ed.), “Magnitude 6.2 earthquake jolts Türkiye’s Istanbul,” reporting AFAD data. Doha, 23 April 2025. Observation year 2025.back
14Ember (ed.), Türkiye Electricity Review 2026. Ember, London, 2026. Observation year 2025.back

Turkiye 2026
Chapter 8

Systems in depth

One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

6 min read0 figures5 tables20 notesNR-COUNTRY-TUR-2026-BASELINE

8.1Water, the baseline system chapter

Renewable water per person has fallen to about 1,308 m³ a year, below the level commonly used as the stress threshold, and a dry 2025 lowered reservoirs and groundwater.

1,308m³

per person a year, 2024²¹

24.7%

Istanbul reservoirs, 17 October 2025²²

≈684sinkholes

Konya Plain, reported December 2025²³

Table 8.1State at baseline
Component	State	Evidence	Status
Per-person supply	about 1,652 m³ in 2000, about 1,308 m³ in 2024	²¹	Reported
Rainfall	27.6% below the 1991–2020 mean in 2025	⁸	Reported
Cities	Istanbul reservoirs at 24.7% on 17 October 2025	²²	Reported
Groundwater	sinkholes counted on the Konya Plain; fall rates are expert estimates	²³	Reported
National storage	national reservoir series not retrieved	State Hydraulic Works	NOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

CLI → WAT rainfall and temperature
WAT → FOO irrigation and crops
WAT → ENE hydropower and cooling
WAT → INF groundwater drawdown and subsidence

Evidence to bind in 2027

national reservoir storage
abstraction and well-licensing data

8.2Energy, the baseline system chapter

Renewables are now 62.3% of installed capacity, yet coal still produced 34% of electricity in 2025 and about two-thirds of primary energy was imported in 2024.

62.3%

renewables in installed capacity, end 2025¹⁷

34%

coal in electricity, 2025¹⁴

62.5USD billion

energy import bill, 2025¹⁶

Table 8.2State at baseline
Component	State	Evidence	Status
Capacity	122.5 GW installed; renewables 62.3%	¹⁷	Reported
Generation	coal 34%; wind and solar about 22%; hydropower held down by drought	¹⁴	Reported
Imports	about 67% of primary energy imported in 2024	¹⁵	Reported
Nuclear	Akkuyu Unit 1 had not reached first power by September 2026	¹⁸	Reported
Gas share	share of gas in 2025 generation not bound	EPİAŞ · TEİAŞ	NOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

TRD → ENE fuel imports
ENE → FOO fuel and fertiliser
WAT → ENE hydropower
SEI → ENE plant and grid damage

Evidence to bind in 2027

fuel and gas stock depth
gas share of generation

8.3Food and agrifood, the baseline system chapter

The 2025 wheat harvest fell about 13.7% in a dry year, and FAO estimates a record harvest for 2026, so the swing between years is the risk.

17.9Mt

wheat harvest, 2025²⁰

22.8Mt

FAO estimate for 2026¹⁹

≈38%

annual food inflation, July 2026¹⁹

Table 8.3State at baseline
Component	State	Evidence	Status
Harvest 2025	about 17.9 Mt of wheat, against a first estimate of 19.6 Mt	²⁰	Reported
Harvest 2026	record 22.8 Mt estimated, about 16% above the five-year average	¹⁹	Reported
Imports	wheat imports of 7 Mt forecast for 2026/27	¹⁹	Reported
Prices	food inflation about 38% in July 2026; flour up about 19%	¹⁹	Reported
Import concentration	by commodity and origin not bound	USDA and customs data	NOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

WAT → FOO irrigation
CLI → FOO drought and frost
ENE → FOO fuel and fertiliser
FOO → FIN household budgets

Evidence to bind in 2027

import concentration by commodity
feed and fertiliser dependence

8.4Health and One Health, the baseline system chapter

Turkiye is younger than many large economies, but it hosts a large foreign population, and no national heat-health series was available at evidence close.

11.1%

aged 65 or over, 2025²⁵

1.52million

foreign residents, 2025¹

≈2.4million

Syrians under temporary protection, end 2025³⁰

Table 8.4State at baseline
Component	State	Evidence	Status
Ageing	9.58 million aged 65 or over; 13.5% projected for 2030	²⁵	Reported
Median age	34.9 years in 2025	¹	Reported
Foreign population	1,519,515 in 2025	¹	Reported
Refugees	about 2.4 million Syrians and 167,000 other applicants and holders, end 2025	³⁰	Reported
Heat deaths	national season total not retrieved	Ministry of Health	NOT BOUND
Life expectancy	secondary reports conflict; official table not read	⁴⁵	NOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

CLI → HLT heat
SEI → HLT injury and displacement
WAT → HLT drinking water
ENE → HLT cooling and power

Evidence to bind in 2027

heat deaths
care continuity in disasters

8.5Biodiversity and ecosystems, the baseline system chapter

Wildfires burned 81,473 ha of forest land in 2025, and about 3.8 million ha were under legal protection, but no single agreed protected-area share is bound here.

81,473ha

forest burned, 2025²⁴

3,224fires

in 2025²⁴

≈3.8million ha

legally protected, end 2025²⁶

Table 8.5State at baseline
Component	State	Evidence	Status
Fire	3,224 fires; cause of 1,012 not determined	²⁴	Reported
Protection	about 3.8 million ha under legal protection at the end of 2025	²⁶	Reported
Share of land	official reports give conflicting percentages	²⁷²⁸	NOT BOUND
Condition	not bound outside protected areas	n/a	Expert input

Couplings into other systems

BIO → WAT forest and watershed regulation
BIO → FOO pollination and soils
CLI → BIO drought and fire

Evidence to bind in 2027

protected share on one definition
condition outside protected areas

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

21State Hydraulic Works (DSİ), per-person annual water availability 2000 and 2024, as reported by Anadolu Agency and Milliyet. Ankara, 2025. Observation year 2024.back
22Istanbul Water and Sewerage Administration (İSKİ), reservoir occupancy of 17 October 2025, as reported by TRT Haber. Istanbul, October 2025. Observation date 17 October 2025.back
23Reuters, “Sinkholes in Turkey’s agricultural heartland fuel farmers’ concerns,” with AFAD assessment of 684 sinkholes, as published by Al-Monitor and The Star. 23 December 2025. Observation year 2025.back
8Turkish State Meteorological Service (ed.), 2025 Climate Assessment of Türkiye (in Turkish). MGM, Ankara, 2026. Observation year 2025.back
17Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources (ed.), installed power capacity at the end of 2025, as reported by SolarQuarter citing SHURA. Ankara, 22 January 2026. Observation year 2025.back
14Ember (ed.), Türkiye Electricity Review 2026. Ember, London, 2026. Observation year 2025.back
16SHURA Energy Transition Center (ed.), Türkiye Energy Transition Outlook 2025. SHURA, Istanbul, 2026. Observation year 2025.back
15Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources (ed.), Primary Energy Mix of Türkiye 2024, presentation at the IENE conference. Ankara and Athens, 19 March 2026. Observation year 2024.back
18Engineering News (ed.), “Akkuyu nuclear power plant project, Türkiye: update.” Johannesburg, 4 September 2026, with Interfax report of 21 September 2026. Observation year 2026.back
20Turkish Statistical Institute (ed.), Crop Production Statistics 2025, as reported by eFeedLink. Ankara, 30 December 2025. Observation year 2025.back
19Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Türkiye. FAO, Rome, reference date 7 September 2026. Observation years 2025–2026.back
25Turkish Statistical Institute (ed.), Elderly Statistics 2025. TurkStat, Ankara, March 2026. Observation year 2025.back
1Turkish Statistical Institute (ed.), Address Based Population Registration System Results 2025. TurkStat, Ankara, 9 February 2026. Observation year 2025.back
30UNHCR (ed.), Annual Results Report 2025: Türkiye. UNHCR, Geneva, 2026. Observation year 2025.back
45Turkish Statistical Institute (ed.), Life Tables, 2021–2023. TurkStat, Ankara, 2024. Observation years 2021–2023.back
24General Directorate of Forestry (OGM), 2025 forest-fire statistics, as reported by Turkish Minute. Ankara, 11 March 2026. Observation year 2025.back
26Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (ed.), legally protected areas at the end of 2025, as reported by Daily Sabah. Ankara, 2026. Observation year 2025.back
27Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, General Directorate of Nature Conservation and National Parks (ed.), Nature Conservation Status Report 2023. Ankara, 2023. Observation year 2023.back
28Ministry of Environment, Urbanisation and Climate Change (ed.), 7th State of the Environment Report of Türkiye. Ankara, 2024. Observation year 2023.back
34Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Observation year 2022.back

Turkiye 2026
Annex A

Methodology

How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.

9 min read0 figures12 tables5 notesNR-COUNTRY-TUR-2026-BASELINE

A.1Methods

The baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.

Table A.1Methods
No.	Derivation	Calculation	Result
(1)	Uninsured share of residential units	100 − 58	42%
(2)	Reduction under the 2035 limit, share of business as usual	466 ÷ 1,109	≈ 42.0%
(3)	Rainfall deficit in 2025 against 1991–2020	573.4 − 414.9	158.5 mm
(4)	Share of the population aged 65 or over	9,583,059 ÷ 86,092,168	≈ 11.1%

Table A.2Coupling strength scale (matrix and model card)
Strength	Definition
STRONG	a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system’s service or output within one season
MODERATE	an effect is documented but buffered or slower
WEAK	an effect is plausible but not documented at national scale

Table A.3Status grammar
Label	Rule
Reported	value as issued by its source, with year
Inferred	reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement
Estimated	Nexus analytical value with stated method
Scenario	conditional on stated assumptions
Expert input	structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence

A.2Model card, National Model v0

Model ID: MDL-TUR-NATIONAL · v0.1
Purpose: represent Turkiye as coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems with forcing and transmission layers
Family: graph-based system of systems
Inputs: the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data
Method: expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from evidence and analogue events
Validation: none yet, first validation against Q1 2027 Foundry evidence
Uncertainty: qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements
Domain of validity: national scale; not for province or asset-level use
Reproducibility: strength table and sources published in this edition

20couplings

typed in v0

9strong

documented within one season

7moderate

documented, buffered

4weak

plausible, undocumented

A.3The baseline evidence cut

Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Model runs begin with the first Foundry cut in Q1 2027.

Cut ID: NQ-TUR-2026-Q0-1
Type: baseline documentary cut
Resolution policy: pinned · as of 30 September 2026
Sources pinned: 46 cited sources, each at the edition and retrieval date in the references
Model runs: none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method
Digest: computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record
Supersedes: nothing, first cut of the series
Superseded by: NQ-TUR-2027-Q1-1 at the Q1 2027 close

Lineage

01
source edition
02
pinned citation
03
finding
04
page
05
publication record

Table A.4From the baseline cut to the first Foundry cut
Element	Baseline 2026	Q1 2027
Sources	cited publications, pinned by edition	qualified source bindings with versions
Analysis	stated methods and editorial estimates	typed analysis specifications
Models	National Model v0 specification	model runs with receipts
Findings	twelve baseline findings	findings re-bound to the cut
Review	five passes scheduled	five passes on the exact digest

A.4Evidence age and coverage

A 2026 edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.

Table A.5Evidence age and coverage
Indicator	Observed	Released	Cadence	Next release
GHG emissions	2024	Mar 2026	annual	annual
Climate assessment	2025	2026	annual	annual
Earthquake assessments	2023	2023	per event	event-driven
Population	2025	Feb 2026	annual	annual
Population aged 65+	2025	Mar 2026	annual	annual
Installed capacity	end 2025	Jan 2026	monthly	monthly
Wheat harvest	2025	Dec 2025	annual	annual
Reservoir level (Istanbul)	17 Oct 2025	Oct 2025	continuous	continuous
Earthquake insurance take-up	2026	Aug 2026	periodic	periodic

Table A.6Coverage by system at baseline
System	Coverage	Thinnest dimension
Seismic hazard	PARTIAL	building-stock condition; current probability
Climate forcing	GOOD	regional rainfall extremes
Energy	GOOD	stock depth and routes; gas share
Food	PARTIAL	import concentration by commodity
Health	THIN	heat-health burden
Water	PARTIAL	national reservoir series
Biodiversity	PARTIAL	protected-area share; condition
Digital	THIN	dependency mapping

A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources

Issued by the Turkish Statistical Institute. Annual, calendar-year basis, with IPCC AR5 global-warming potentials. Role: binds CLI-001 and the sector figures. The release was read through press reports of the bulletin, because the statistics portal needs a script-enabled browser.

EVD-TUR-001

GHG inventory 1990–2024²

Issued by the Government of Turkiye with UN, World Bank and EU support, presented in March 2023. One-off. Role: binds SEI-005 cost figures, labelled as assessments.

EVD-TUR-002

TERRA recovery assessment¹¹

Table A.7Quality dimensions at baseline
Dimension	EVD-TUR-001	EVD-TUR-002
Completeness	energy, industrial processes, agriculture and waste; land use not bound	eleven provinces; one-off
Timeliness	about three months after the year	weeks after the event
Revision	back-revised in later releases	not revised
Method transparency	published methodology	published assumptions
External validation	not bound in this edition	supported by UN, World Bank and EU

Evidence cards to follow in Q1 2027

TurkStat inventory²: net emissions with land use
Ministry of Agriculture protected-area statistics²⁶²⁷²⁸: one definition of protected share
Ministry of Health: heat-health series
State Hydraulic Works: national reservoir storage

A.6Publication acceptance record

Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.

Table A.8Publication acceptance record
Group	Area	Items	Pass	N/A	Pending
D1	Identity and scope	8	8	0	0
D2	Source and data	12	9	1	2
D3	Analysis and models	12	3	8	1
D4	Findings and claims	9	8	0	1
D5	Figures, tables, maps	10	6	2	2
D6	Editorial and citations	10	8	0	2
D7	Review and approval	13	0	0	13
D8	Artefact and design	12	7	0	5
D9	Registry and release	9	0	0	9

Publication gate

Conditions met: 14 of 23 at evidence close
Blocking problems: none recorded
Open conditions: reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer

Not applicable at baseline

Model runs: first runs in Q1 2027
Maps: plates in Q2 2027
Waivers: none

A.7Status words

Table A.9The status every value carries
Status	What it means
Observed	Measured directly and published by the source.
Reported	Published statistics of an official or institutional source.
Declared	Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured.
Estimated	A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A.
Modelled	Produced by a stated model from cited inputs.
Inferred	Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured.
Forecast	A projection by the cited source.
Simulated	A simulation result under stated assumptions.
Scenario	A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction.
Expert input	Expert judgement, recorded with its basis.
Candidate	Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence.
Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject.

A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected

Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.

Step	What happens	Source
01 Evidence arrives from the pillars	Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site’s.
02 The cut is sealed	On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on.
03 The edition is assembled	The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide.
04 The keys turn	At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward.
05 The gate opens	A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit.
06 Signed and deposited	The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI.
07 Published on its desk’s site	Only then does the edition show as published on its desk’s Reports site, and the Collection lists it as a part.
08 Corrections go to Standards	Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut.

A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).

Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.

A.9Glossary and abbreviations

Table A.10Series terms
Term	Meaning
Baseline Edition	the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series
WEFH+B	water, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the national nexus core
Coupling	a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another
Protection gap	the share of losses not covered by insurance
Capability ladder	LISTED → EXISTS → ADEQUATE → TESTED → DEMONSTRATED
EQL	evidence-quality level, 1–5
Evidence cut	a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions
NNC · NLC · NWG	National Nexus Consortium · National Leadership Council · National Working Groups

Table A.11Abbreviations used in this edition
Abbreviation	Expansion
AFAD	Disaster and Emergency Management Authority
BAU	business as usual
DASK	Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool, compulsory earthquake insurance
DSİ	State Hydraulic Works
EPİAŞ	Energy Exchange Istanbul
ETKB	Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources
GIEWS	Global Information and Early Warning System, FAO
GRADE	Global Rapid Post-Disaster Damage Estimation, World Bank
İSKİ	Istanbul Water and Sewerage Administration
LULUCF	land use, land-use change and forestry
MGM	Turkish State Meteorological Service
NDC	nationally determined contribution
OGM	General Directorate of Forestry
TERRA	Türkiye Earthquakes Recovery and Reconstruction Assessment
TMMOB	Union of Chambers of Turkish Engineers and Architects
TurkStat	Turkish Statistical Institute

A.10Technical annex

Table A.12Technical annex
Item	Annex	Contents	Status
A.1	Indicator definitions	the baseline indicator set, with units and sources	IN THIS EDITION
A.2	Coupling strengths	the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale	IN THIS EDITION
A.3	Scenario specification	SCN-TUR-DRT-01 assumptions and signposts	IN THIS EDITION
A.4	Capability placements	rung evidence for fifteen functions	IN THIS EDITION
A.5	Model diagnostics	first runs and validation	Q1 2027
A.6	Sensitivity analyses	influence of coupling strengths	Q2 2027
A.7	Provincial notes	atlas cards for every province	Q2 2027
A.8	Review statements	pass-by-pass review record	AT RELEASE

A.1 · indicator definition, net greenhouse-gas emissions

Construct: annual emissions minus land-use removals
Unit: Mt CO₂e, AR5 100-year potentials
Scope: calendar year
Source: TurkStat inventory²
Revision: back-revised in later releases
Known limits: the 2024 total used here excludes land use; the net series is not bound

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

2Turkish Statistical Institute (ed.), Greenhouse Gas Emissions Statistics, 1990–2024. TurkStat, Ankara, 27 March 2026. Observation year 2024.back
11Presidency of the Republic of Türkiye, Strategy and Budget Office (ed.), Türkiye Earthquakes Recovery and Reconstruction Assessment (TERRA). Ankara, March 2023, with UNDP, World Bank and EU support. Observation year 2023.back
26Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (ed.), legally protected areas at the end of 2025, as reported by Daily Sabah. Ankara, 2026. Observation year 2025.back
27Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, General Directorate of Nature Conservation and National Parks (ed.), Nature Conservation Status Report 2023. Ankara, 2023. Observation year 2023.back
28Ministry of Environment, Urbanisation and Climate Change (ed.), 7th State of the Environment Report of Türkiye. Ankara, 2024. Observation year 2023.back

Turkiye 2026
Annex B

Data appendix

The indicator set with its sources, the source registers, the licences of every kind of material and the formats of the edition.

8 min read0 figures7 tables22 notesNR-COUNTRY-TUR-2026-BASELINE

B.1The indicator set

Table B.1Baseline indicator set
Indicator	Value	Unit	Year	State	Source
GHG emissions, total	584.5	Mt CO₂e	2024	Reported	²
GHG emissions per person	6.8	t CO₂e	2024	Reported	²
Energy-sector emissions	419.9	Mt CO₂e	2024	Reported	²
2035 limit including land use	643	Mt CO₂e	target	Reported	³
Installed power capacity	122,519	MW	end 2025	Reported	¹⁷
Renewables in installed capacity	62.3	%	end 2025	Reported	¹⁷
Coal in electricity generation	34	%	2025	Reported	¹⁴
Wind and solar in generation	≈22	%	2025	Reported	¹⁴
Primary energy imported	≈67	%	2024	Reported	¹⁵
Energy import bill	62.5	USD billion	2025	Reported	¹⁶
Mean temperature	15.1	°C	2025	Reported	⁸
Areal precipitation	414.9	mm	2025	Reported	⁸
Wheat harvest	≈17.9	Mt	2025	Reported	²⁰
Population	86,092,168	people	31 Dec 2025	Reported	¹
Aged 65 or over	9,583,059	people	2025	Reported	²⁵
Earthquake deaths, 6 February 2023	≈53,500	deaths	2023	Reported	⁹
Recovery and reconstruction need	≈103.6	USD billion	2023	Reported	¹¹
Forest burned	81,473	ha	2025	Reported	²⁴
Residential units with earthquake cover	≈58	%	2026	Reported	²⁹
Net emissions with land use, latest year	Not bound	Mt CO₂e	n/a	NOT BOUND	TurkStat²
Heat deaths, national season total	Not bound	deaths	n/a	NOT BOUND	Ministry of Health
Share of land under protection	Not bound	%	n/a	NOT BOUND	Ministry of Agriculture²⁷
National reservoir storage	Not bound	%	n/a	NOT BOUND	State Hydraulic Works

Indicators, CSV Indicators, JSON

B.2National source register

The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.

Domains bound by the register

Table B.3National source register
Source	Category	Coverage	Period	Cadence	Role
GHG inventory 1990–2024²	national statistics	national	1990–2024	annual	CLI · ENE
Climate assessment⁸	national technical authority	national	2025	annual	CLI
Earthquake assessments¹⁰¹¹	World Bank · government	regional	2023	per event	SEI
Earthquake reporting¹²	national disaster agency	national	2025	per event	SEI
Electricity review¹⁴	independent analyst	national	2025	annual	ENE
Primary energy mix¹⁵	ministry	national	2024	annual	ENE
Crop monitoring¹⁹²⁰	FAO · national statistics	national	2025–2026	annual	FOO
Water and reservoir data²¹²²	agency · utility, via press	national · city	2024–2025	periodic	WAT
Population results¹²⁵	national statistics	national	2025	annual	profile
Insurance pool data²⁹	insurance pool, via press	national	2026	periodic	FIN
Climate contribution³⁴³	government · trade press	national	2025	periodic	CLI

B.3Regional reading, Turkiye by region

Map plates for every province follow in Q2 2027, when boundary sources and public-safe resolutions are bound. This page gives the regional reading in table form.

Selected population figures

11provinces

affected by the 2023 earthquakes¹⁰

14.01million

people in those provinces¹⁰

93.6%

living in province and district centres¹

1.52million

foreign residents¹

Table B.4Regional reading, Turkiye by region
Region	Principal hazards	Systems most exposed	Baseline evidence
Marmara	earthquakes near Istanbul; heat; drought	finance, industry, water supply	Marmara earthquake 2025¹²
Aegean	wildfire; drought; earthquakes	agriculture, tourism	fire season 2025²⁴
Mediterranean	wildfire; heat; drought	agriculture, tourism	fire season 2025²⁴
Central Anatolia	drought; groundwater depletion; sinkholes	cereals, water	Konya Plain²³
Black Sea	flood and landslide exposure; not bound	forest, hazelnut, tea	not bound
Eastern and Southeastern Anatolia	earthquakes; extreme heat	cereals, energy, hosting population	earthquakes 2023⁹ · 50.5 °C record 2025⁸

B.4Atlas card, Konya Plain

plain
cereal basin
groundwater
drought

Systems in view: water, food, land and energy for irrigation
Defining events: about 684 sinkholes counted; falling groundwater²³
Couplings: CLI → WAT → FOO; WAT → INF
Capability evidence: not bound
Gaps: well licensing and abstraction data; crop-water use
Agenda items: A-01 · A-03

An expert quoted in press reports gives falls of 4 to 5 metres a year, against half a metre a year in the 2000s. This is an expert estimate, not a monitoring series.

WATER

Groundwater falling

The national wheat harvest fell 13.7% in 2025 [20]. The Konya share is not bound in this edition.

FOOD

A drought-hit harvest

About 684 sinkholes were counted across the plain in an assessment reported in December 2025 [23].

LAND

Sinkholes on farmland

B.5Turkiye system card

The card through which Turkiye appears in the Eurasia regional edition and the global series. It summarises; it does not rank.

Table B.5Turkiye system card
System	Baseline state	Coupling to watch	Coverage
Water	about 1,308 m³ per person	drought and groundwater stress	PARTIAL
Energy	renewables 62.3% of capacity	import disruption	GOOD
Food	wheat down 13.7% in 2025	short harvest and import prices	PARTIAL
Health	younger population; heat data not bound	heat and care load	THIN
Biodiversity	fire and land-use pressure	fire and drying	PARTIAL

Context

Archetype: large economy with a young population, high seismic exposure and a drying Mediterranean climate (Nexus reading)
Population: 86.09 million (2025)¹
Trade: imports about 67% of primary energy¹⁵
Hazard: about 53,500 deaths in the 2023 earthquakes⁹

Turkiye’s card sits beside its neighbours’; shared basins, grids, corridors and supply chains are read as one regional system.

EURASIA REGIONAL EDITION

One regional system

Turkish evidence enters the water, energy, food, finance and climate sector reports through the same finding identifiers, so a correction travels everywhere at once.

GLOBAL SECTOR SERIES

Same findings, same IDs

In the global edition Turkiye is read against peer distributions and thresholds, never placed in a league table.

GLOBAL FLAGSHIP

Peers, not ranks

B.6Licences

Table B.6Licences of each kind of material
Material	Licence
Text	CC BY 4.0
Data	on the licence of each source; Nexus tables CC BY 4.0
Figures	Nexus figures CC BY 4.0; third-party as credited
Maps	boundary source and licence printed on each plate
Metadata	CC0 1.0, as Zenodo publishes it
Third-party data, figures and text	The source’s own licence, credited where it is used; never relicensed
Nexus-authored text, tables and figures: CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0). Map plates print their boundary source and licence.

B.7Formats and provenance

Table B.7This edition in every format
Format	Kind	State	What it is	Identifier
Web edition	HTML	On this site	Draft in stewardship review; every value resolves to its source.	NR-COUNTRY-TUR-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Print edition	PDF	At release	A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF, signed with the web edition at release.	NR-COUNTRY-TUR-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Indicator data	CSV · JSON	On this site	23 indicators with unit, year, status and source; the machine-readable copy ships with the evidence bundle at release.	NR-COUNTRY-TUR-2026-BASELINE data release v1
Figures	SVG · PNG	On this site	4 on the web edition: headline figure, figure 1.3, coupling instrument, capability ladder.	FIG-COUNTRY-TUR-2026-BASELINE-*
Slides	PDF	Not recorded	No slide deck is recorded for this edition.
Evidence brief	HTML · PDF	Not recorded	No evidence brief is recorded for this edition.
Dataset with DOI	DataCite	At release	Concept and version DOI are minted at deposit; none is recorded yet.

Provenance

Edition pack: The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built
Evidence cut: NQ-TUR-2026-Q0-1, closed 30 September 2026
Reproducibility: sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters
Self-check: 14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release
Review: five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)
Publisher of record: GCRI for the Nexus Consortium
Corrections: Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

2Turkish Statistical Institute (ed.), Greenhouse Gas Emissions Statistics, 1990–2024. TurkStat, Ankara, 27 March 2026. Observation year 2024.back
3Ministry of Environment, Urbanisation and Climate Change (ed.), “Türkiye submits its second Nationally Determined Contribution to the United Nations.” Ankara, November 2025. Observation year 2035 target.back
17Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources (ed.), installed power capacity at the end of 2025, as reported by SolarQuarter citing SHURA. Ankara, 22 January 2026. Observation year 2025.back
14Ember (ed.), Türkiye Electricity Review 2026. Ember, London, 2026. Observation year 2025.back
15Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources (ed.), Primary Energy Mix of Türkiye 2024, presentation at the IENE conference. Ankara and Athens, 19 March 2026. Observation year 2024.back
16SHURA Energy Transition Center (ed.), Türkiye Energy Transition Outlook 2025. SHURA, Istanbul, 2026. Observation year 2025.back
8Turkish State Meteorological Service (ed.), 2025 Climate Assessment of Türkiye (in Turkish). MGM, Ankara, 2026. Observation year 2025.back
20Turkish Statistical Institute (ed.), Crop Production Statistics 2025, as reported by eFeedLink. Ankara, 30 December 2025. Observation year 2025.back
1Turkish Statistical Institute (ed.), Address Based Population Registration System Results 2025. TurkStat, Ankara, 9 February 2026. Observation year 2025.back
25Turkish Statistical Institute (ed.), Elderly Statistics 2025. TurkStat, Ankara, March 2026. Observation year 2025.back
9Union of Chambers of Turkish Engineers and Architects (ed.), Report on the first year after the 6 February 2023 earthquakes, citing official figures. TMMOB, Ankara, 2024. Observation year 2023.back
11Presidency of the Republic of Türkiye, Strategy and Budget Office (ed.), Türkiye Earthquakes Recovery and Reconstruction Assessment (TERRA). Ankara, March 2023, with UNDP, World Bank and EU support. Observation year 2023.back
24General Directorate of Forestry (OGM), 2025 forest-fire statistics, as reported by Turkish Minute. Ankara, 11 March 2026. Observation year 2025.back
29Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool (DASK), compulsory earthquake insurance coverage, as reported by Daily Sabah. Ankara and Istanbul, August 2026. Observation year 2026.back
27Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, General Directorate of Nature Conservation and National Parks (ed.), Nature Conservation Status Report 2023. Ankara, 2023. Observation year 2023.back
10World Bank and GFDRR (eds.), Global Rapid Post-Disaster Damage Estimation (GRADE) Report: February 6, 2023 Kahramanmaraş Earthquakes, Türkiye Report. World Bank, Washington DC, February 2023. Observation year 2023.back
12Al Jazeera (ed.), “Magnitude 6.2 earthquake jolts Türkiye’s Istanbul,” reporting AFAD data. Doha, 23 April 2025. Observation year 2025.back
19Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Türkiye. FAO, Rome, reference date 7 September 2026. Observation years 2025–2026.back
21State Hydraulic Works (DSİ), per-person annual water availability 2000 and 2024, as reported by Anadolu Agency and Milliyet. Ankara, 2025. Observation year 2024.back
22Istanbul Water and Sewerage Administration (İSKİ), reservoir occupancy of 17 October 2025, as reported by TRT Haber. Istanbul, October 2025. Observation date 17 October 2025.back
43Enerdata (ed.), “Türkiye’s NDC aims to cut GHG emissions by 466 MtCO₂eq by 2035, to 643 MtCO₂eq.” Enerdata, Grenoble, November 2025. Observation year 2035 target.back
23Reuters, “Sinkholes in Turkey’s agricultural heartland fuel farmers’ concerns,” with AFAD assessment of 684 sinkholes, as published by Al-Monitor and The Star. 23 December 2025. Observation year 2025.back

Turkiye 2026
Annex C

References and record

Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

11 min read0 figures1 table0 notesNR-COUNTRY-TUR-2026-BASELINE

C.146 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

1Turkish Statistical Institute (ed.), Address Based Population Registration System Results 2025. TurkStat, Ankara, 9 February 2026. Observation year 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
2Turkish Statistical Institute (ed.), Greenhouse Gas Emissions Statistics, 1990–2024. TurkStat, Ankara, 27 March 2026. Observation year 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6
3Ministry of Environment, Urbanisation and Climate Change (ed.), “Türkiye submits its second Nationally Determined Contribution to the United Nations.” Ankara, November 2025. Observation year 2035 target. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6
4Climate Action Tracker (ed.), Türkiye: 2035 NDC assessment. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, Berlin, 2025–2026. Observation year 2035 target. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6
5University of Maryland Center for Global Sustainability (ed.), 2035 NDC Assessment: Türkiye. UMD CGS, College Park, August 2026. Observation year 2035 target. Cited in chapter 6
6Grand National Assembly of Türkiye (ed.), Climate Law, Law No. 7552. Official Gazette No. 32951, Ankara, 9 July 2025. Observation year 2025. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
7International Carbon Action Partnership (ed.), “Türkiye adopts landmark climate law paving way for national ETS.” ICAP, Berlin, July 2025. Observation year 2025. Cited in chapter 6
8Turkish State Meteorological Service (ed.), 2025 Climate Assessment of Türkiye (in Turkish). MGM, Ankara, 2026. Observation year 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
9Union of Chambers of Turkish Engineers and Architects (ed.), Report on the first year after the 6 February 2023 earthquakes, citing official figures. TMMOB, Ankara, 2024. Observation year 2023. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 7
10World Bank and GFDRR (eds.), Global Rapid Post-Disaster Damage Estimation (GRADE) Report: February 6, 2023 Kahramanmaraş Earthquakes, Türkiye Report. World Bank, Washington DC, February 2023. Observation year 2023. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
11Presidency of the Republic of Türkiye, Strategy and Budget Office (ed.), Türkiye Earthquakes Recovery and Reconstruction Assessment (TERRA). Ankara, March 2023, with UNDP, World Bank and EU support. Observation year 2023. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
12Al Jazeera (ed.), “Magnitude 6.2 earthquake jolts Türkiye’s Istanbul,” reporting AFAD data. Doha, 23 April 2025. Observation year 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 7
13T. Parsons, “Recalculated probability of M ≥ 7 earthquakes beneath the Sea of Marmara, Turkey,” Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, vol. 109, B05304, 2004. doi:10.1029/2003JB002667. Observation period 2004–2034. doi:10.1029/2003JB002667 Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
14Ember (ed.), Türkiye Electricity Review 2026. Ember, London, 2026. Observation year 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
15Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources (ed.), Primary Energy Mix of Türkiye 2024, presentation at the IENE conference. Ankara and Athens, 19 March 2026. Observation year 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
16SHURA Energy Transition Center (ed.), Türkiye Energy Transition Outlook 2025. SHURA, Istanbul, 2026. Observation year 2025. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
17Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources (ed.), installed power capacity at the end of 2025, as reported by SolarQuarter citing SHURA. Ankara, 22 January 2026. Observation year 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 8
18Engineering News (ed.), “Akkuyu nuclear power plant project, Türkiye: update.” Johannesburg, 4 September 2026, with Interfax report of 21 September 2026. Observation year 2026. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
19Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Türkiye. FAO, Rome, reference date 7 September 2026. Observation years 2025–2026. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
20Turkish Statistical Institute (ed.), Crop Production Statistics 2025, as reported by eFeedLink. Ankara, 30 December 2025. Observation year 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 7, chapter 8
21State Hydraulic Works (DSİ), per-person annual water availability 2000 and 2024, as reported by Anadolu Agency and Milliyet. Ankara, 2025. Observation year 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8
22Istanbul Water and Sewerage Administration (İSKİ), reservoir occupancy of 17 October 2025, as reported by TRT Haber. Istanbul, October 2025. Observation date 17 October 2025. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 5, chapter 8
23Reuters, “Sinkholes in Turkey’s agricultural heartland fuel farmers’ concerns,” with AFAD assessment of 684 sinkholes, as published by Al-Monitor and The Star. 23 December 2025. Observation year 2025. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 5, chapter 8
24General Directorate of Forestry (OGM), 2025 forest-fire statistics, as reported by Turkish Minute. Ankara, 11 March 2026. Observation year 2025. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 8
25Turkish Statistical Institute (ed.), Elderly Statistics 2025. TurkStat, Ankara, March 2026. Observation year 2025. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
26Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (ed.), legally protected areas at the end of 2025, as reported by Daily Sabah. Ankara, 2026. Observation year 2025. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8
27Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, General Directorate of Nature Conservation and National Parks (ed.), Nature Conservation Status Report 2023. Ankara, 2023. Observation year 2023. Cited in chapter 8
28Ministry of Environment, Urbanisation and Climate Change (ed.), 7th State of the Environment Report of Türkiye. Ankara, 2024. Observation year 2023. Cited in chapter 8
29Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool (DASK), compulsory earthquake insurance coverage, as reported by Daily Sabah. Ankara and Istanbul, August 2026. Observation year 2026. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6
30UNHCR (ed.), Annual Results Report 2025: Türkiye. UNHCR, Geneva, 2026. Observation year 2025. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
31OECD (ed.), OECD Economic Surveys: Türkiye 2025. OECD Publishing, Paris, April 2025. Observation year 2025. Cited in chapter 6
32H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. Observation year 2023. Cited in chapter 6
33UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Observation year 2015. Cited in chapter 6
34Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Observation year 2022. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
35UNFCCC (ed.), Paris Agreement. United Nations, Paris, 2015. Observation year 2015. Cited in chapter 6
36International Energy Agency (ed.), Global Energy Review 2025. IEA, Paris, 2025. Observation year 2024.
37Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026. Observation year 2025. Cited in chapter 6
38P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. Observation year 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054 Cited in chapter 6
39J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Observation year 2018. Cited in chapter 6
40World Health Organization (ed.), World Health Statistics 2025. WHO, Geneva, 2025. Observation year 2023. Cited in chapter 6
41S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026.
42S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026.
43Enerdata (ed.), “Türkiye’s NDC aims to cut GHG emissions by 466 MtCO₂eq by 2035, to 643 MtCO₂eq.” Enerdata, Grenoble, November 2025. Observation year 2035 target.
44Climate Analytics (ed.), 1.5°C national pathway explorer: Türkiye. Climate Analytics, Berlin, 2025. Observation year 2035 pathway. Cited in chapter 6
45Turkish Statistical Institute (ed.), Life Tables, 2021–2023. TurkStat, Ankara, 2024. Observation years 2021–2023. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
46International Energy Agency (ed.), Türkiye 2021: Energy Policy Review. IEA, Paris, 2021. Observation year 2020. Cited in chapter 6

C.2Publication record

Publication

Title: Turkiye Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition
Series: Reports · Edition 2026–2030
Edition: Baseline Edition 2026 · inaugural annual
Version: v1.0.0 · draft for stewardship review
Publication ID: NR-COUNTRY-TUR-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Evidence close: 30 September 2026
Publication date: October 2026
DOI: concept and version DOI at deposit

Publisher

Publisher of record: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium
Place: Toronto
Editor: Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor
Stewards: GCRI · technical truth · GRF · public meaning · GRA · capital meaning
Licence: text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source
Language: English (en-GB) source edition
Correspondence: Registry correction pathway · editorial office

Colophon

Format: A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF
Typefaces: Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)
Design standard: Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII
Accessibility: tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure
Production: Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version

Table C.1Release path for this version
Step	What happens	When
Draft	editorial self-check complete at evidence close	October 2026
Steward review	five passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N)	Q4 2026
Approval	publication authority approves the exact digest	before release
Deposit	concept and version DOI minted; registry pointer set	at release
Succession	the Q1 2027 edition reports changes against this baseline	Q1 2027

Current version: v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review
Previous edition: none, first edition of the series
Next edition: NR-COUNTRY-TUR-2027-Q1-v1.0.0

Latest version: resolve the concept DOI or the registry record
Correction route: Registry correction pathway
Notice types: erratum · addendum · supersession · withdrawal

C.3Corrections log

0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition’s current version.

Edition	Version	Date	State	Change	Notice
TUR	NR-COUNTRY-TUR-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0	October 2026	Draft	Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,	None

Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.

C.4Open record

This edition’s open record

Publication ID: NR-COUNTRY-TUR-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Desk identifier and series alias: NR-NAT-TUR-2026-BL
Collection: None
DOI: Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata
Versions: Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest
Bundle: RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest
Licence: CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0

Credit and identity

ORCID: Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record
ROR: Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone
CRediT: Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing
Account: None needed to contribute; never a password

Find and follow

Search the open indexes for Turkiye; software is cited by its SWHID from Software Heritage, and a quantified scenario run is preregistered on OSF before it is run. Annotation is your choice: Hypothesis opens this page in its own viewer.

Mirrors and harvest

The DOI is canonical. At release each signed bundle is also given an IPFS content identifier and a bloxberg anchor as mirrors; both are listed in the record once they exist. Zenodo exposes every record over OAI-PMH, and reviews and endorsements can arrive through COAR Notify where the repository supports it.

InvenioRDM metadata for a contribution on Turkiye, prefilled from this page

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C.5Where this edition sits among the six pillars

Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.

F03 Sealed observations and indicator series Foundry Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04 After-action and scenario findings for Universe After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter Foundry National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
Applied in editions Standards Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
TUR edition Reports Turkiye 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.
F06 Method and correction findings as change Standards Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year Universe Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
Taught in the open Academy Risk Academy: taught in the open.

What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; TUR is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.

Handoff	Between	What crosses, and when
F03	Foundry to Reports	Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04	Universe to Reports	After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05	Foundry to Reports	National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
Ring	Nexus Standards to Reports	Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
F06	Reports to Nexus Standards	Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12	Reports to Universe	Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
Ring	Reports to Risk Academy	Risk Academy: taught in the open.

S.1Abstract

S.2Key messages

S.3Headline finding

S.4At a glance

S.5What each steward reads in it

Technical Truth

Public Meaning

Capital Meaning

Synthesis

S.6What this edition is, and is not

What this edition is

What it is not

What comes next

Notes

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

In this part

1.2The argument

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

Transmission paths

1.4Reinforcing loops

Notes

2.1Headline finding

Implication

What would move it

2.2Climate forcing

2.3Energy

2.4SEI

2.5Water

2.6Food

2.7Health

2.8Biodiversity

2.9Finance

2.10Systemic

Notes

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

Renewable water per person, a year

Renewables in installed power capacity

Wheat harvest

Population aged 65 or over

Forest land burned

Recovery and reconstruction need after the 2023 earthquakes

3.2Domain posture

3.3Sector screens

Notes

4.1Risk objects

Marmara-region or North Anatolian great earthquake

Multi-year drought and water stress

Fuel and gas import disruption

Short harvest and import price exposure

4.2Capability ladder

Notes

5.1Assumptions

5.2The cascade, step by step

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

Notes

6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject

6.2Three lenses

Technical Truth

Public Meaning

Capital Meaning

Synthesis

6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions

Standards drafts used in this edition

Standards calendar to watch

6.4GCRI reading: the model card

6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 01

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 02

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 03

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 04

6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: q1 2027 readiness pack

Publication dispositions

6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Changed since 2024

To watch in 2027

6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments

Review protocol

Where the evidence agrees

Where it is unsettled