Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

References and record

Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

11 min read0 figures1 table0 notesNR-COUNTRY-TUR-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Turkiye’s risk is seismic, climatic and import-dependent at once
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5A drought year across water, hydropower, wheat and budgets
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
    1. C.1 46 sources
    2. C.2 Publication record
    3. C.3 Corrections log
    4. C.4 Open record
    5. C.5 Where this edition sits among the six pillars
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

C.146 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

  1. 1Turkish Statistical Institute (ed.), Address Based Population Registration System Results 2025. TurkStat, Ankara, 9 February 2026. Observation year 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  2. 2Turkish Statistical Institute (ed.), Greenhouse Gas Emissions Statistics, 1990–2024. TurkStat, Ankara, 27 March 2026. Observation year 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6
  3. 3Ministry of Environment, Urbanisation and Climate Change (ed.), “Türkiye submits its second Nationally Determined Contribution to the United Nations.” Ankara, November 2025. Observation year 2035 target. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6
  4. 4Climate Action Tracker (ed.), Türkiye: 2035 NDC assessment. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, Berlin, 2025–2026. Observation year 2035 target. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6
  5. 5University of Maryland Center for Global Sustainability (ed.), 2035 NDC Assessment: Türkiye. UMD CGS, College Park, August 2026. Observation year 2035 target. Cited in chapter 6
  6. 6Grand National Assembly of Türkiye (ed.), Climate Law, Law No. 7552. Official Gazette No. 32951, Ankara, 9 July 2025. Observation year 2025. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  7. 7International Carbon Action Partnership (ed.), “Türkiye adopts landmark climate law paving way for national ETS.” ICAP, Berlin, July 2025. Observation year 2025. Cited in chapter 6
  8. 8Turkish State Meteorological Service (ed.), 2025 Climate Assessment of Türkiye (in Turkish). MGM, Ankara, 2026. Observation year 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
  9. 9Union of Chambers of Turkish Engineers and Architects (ed.), Report on the first year after the 6 February 2023 earthquakes, citing official figures. TMMOB, Ankara, 2024. Observation year 2023. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 7
  10. 10World Bank and GFDRR (eds.), Global Rapid Post-Disaster Damage Estimation (GRADE) Report: February 6, 2023 Kahramanmaraş Earthquakes, Türkiye Report. World Bank, Washington DC, February 2023. Observation year 2023. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
  11. 11Presidency of the Republic of Türkiye, Strategy and Budget Office (ed.), Türkiye Earthquakes Recovery and Reconstruction Assessment (TERRA). Ankara, March 2023, with UNDP, World Bank and EU support. Observation year 2023. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  12. 12Al Jazeera (ed.), “Magnitude 6.2 earthquake jolts Türkiye’s Istanbul,” reporting AFAD data. Doha, 23 April 2025. Observation year 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 7
  13. 13T. Parsons, “Recalculated probability of M ≥ 7 earthquakes beneath the Sea of Marmara, Turkey,” Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, vol. 109, B05304, 2004. doi:10.1029/2003JB002667. Observation period 2004–2034. doi:10.1029/2003JB002667 Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  14. 14Ember (ed.), Türkiye Electricity Review 2026. Ember, London, 2026. Observation year 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  15. 15Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources (ed.), Primary Energy Mix of Türkiye 2024, presentation at the IENE conference. Ankara and Athens, 19 March 2026. Observation year 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
  16. 16SHURA Energy Transition Center (ed.), Türkiye Energy Transition Outlook 2025. SHURA, Istanbul, 2026. Observation year 2025. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
  17. 17Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources (ed.), installed power capacity at the end of 2025, as reported by SolarQuarter citing SHURA. Ankara, 22 January 2026. Observation year 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 8
  18. 18Engineering News (ed.), “Akkuyu nuclear power plant project, Türkiye: update.” Johannesburg, 4 September 2026, with Interfax report of 21 September 2026. Observation year 2026. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  19. 19Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Türkiye. FAO, Rome, reference date 7 September 2026. Observation years 2025–2026. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  20. 20Turkish Statistical Institute (ed.), Crop Production Statistics 2025, as reported by eFeedLink. Ankara, 30 December 2025. Observation year 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 7, chapter 8
  21. 21State Hydraulic Works (DSİ), per-person annual water availability 2000 and 2024, as reported by Anadolu Agency and Milliyet. Ankara, 2025. Observation year 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8
  22. 22Istanbul Water and Sewerage Administration (İSKİ), reservoir occupancy of 17 October 2025, as reported by TRT Haber. Istanbul, October 2025. Observation date 17 October 2025. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 5, chapter 8
  23. 23Reuters, “Sinkholes in Turkey’s agricultural heartland fuel farmers’ concerns,” with AFAD assessment of 684 sinkholes, as published by Al-Monitor and The Star. 23 December 2025. Observation year 2025. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 5, chapter 8
  24. 24General Directorate of Forestry (OGM), 2025 forest-fire statistics, as reported by Turkish Minute. Ankara, 11 March 2026. Observation year 2025. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 8
  25. 25Turkish Statistical Institute (ed.), Elderly Statistics 2025. TurkStat, Ankara, March 2026. Observation year 2025. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  26. 26Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (ed.), legally protected areas at the end of 2025, as reported by Daily Sabah. Ankara, 2026. Observation year 2025. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8
  27. 27Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, General Directorate of Nature Conservation and National Parks (ed.), Nature Conservation Status Report 2023. Ankara, 2023. Observation year 2023. Cited in chapter 8
  28. 28Ministry of Environment, Urbanisation and Climate Change (ed.), 7th State of the Environment Report of Türkiye. Ankara, 2024. Observation year 2023. Cited in chapter 8
  29. 29Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool (DASK), compulsory earthquake insurance coverage, as reported by Daily Sabah. Ankara and Istanbul, August 2026. Observation year 2026. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6
  30. 30UNHCR (ed.), Annual Results Report 2025: Türkiye. UNHCR, Geneva, 2026. Observation year 2025. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
  31. 31OECD (ed.), OECD Economic Surveys: Türkiye 2025. OECD Publishing, Paris, April 2025. Observation year 2025. Cited in chapter 6
  32. 32H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. Observation year 2023. Cited in chapter 6
  33. 33UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Observation year 2015. Cited in chapter 6
  34. 34Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Observation year 2022. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  35. 35UNFCCC (ed.), Paris Agreement. United Nations, Paris, 2015. Observation year 2015. Cited in chapter 6
  36. 36International Energy Agency (ed.), Global Energy Review 2025. IEA, Paris, 2025. Observation year 2024.
  37. 37Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026. Observation year 2025. Cited in chapter 6
  38. 38P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. Observation year 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054 Cited in chapter 6
  39. 39J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Observation year 2018. Cited in chapter 6
  40. 40World Health Organization (ed.), World Health Statistics 2025. WHO, Geneva, 2025. Observation year 2023. Cited in chapter 6
  41. 41S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026.
  42. 42S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026.
  43. 43Enerdata (ed.), “Türkiye’s NDC aims to cut GHG emissions by 466 MtCO₂eq by 2035, to 643 MtCO₂eq.” Enerdata, Grenoble, November 2025. Observation year 2035 target.
  44. 44Climate Analytics (ed.), 1.5°C national pathway explorer: Türkiye. Climate Analytics, Berlin, 2025. Observation year 2035 pathway. Cited in chapter 6
  45. 45Turkish Statistical Institute (ed.), Life Tables, 2021–2023. TurkStat, Ankara, 2024. Observation years 2021–2023. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  46. 46International Energy Agency (ed.), Türkiye 2021: Energy Policy Review. IEA, Paris, 2021. Observation year 2020. Cited in chapter 6

C.2Publication record

Publication

Title
Turkiye Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition
Series
Reports · Edition 2026–2030
Edition
Baseline Edition 2026 · inaugural annual
Version
v1.0.0 · draft for stewardship review
Publication ID
NR-COUNTRY-TUR-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Evidence close
30 September 2026
Publication date
October 2026
DOI
concept and version DOI at deposit

Publisher

Publisher of record
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium
Place
Toronto
Editor
Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor
Stewards
GCRI · technical truth · the Global Risks Forum (GRF) · public meaning · the Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · capital meaning
Licence
text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source
Copyright
© 2026 GCRI · Nexus Consortium
Language
English (en-GB) source edition
Correspondence
Registry correction pathway · editorial office

Colophon

Format
A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF
Typefaces
Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)
Design standard
Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII
Accessibility
tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure
Production
Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version

Table C.1Release path for this version
StepWhat happensWhen
Drafteditorial self-check complete at evidence closeOctober 2026
Steward reviewfive passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N)Q4 2026
Approvalpublication authority approves the exact digestbefore release
Depositconcept and version DOI minted; registry pointer setat release
Successionthe Q1 2027 edition reports changes against this baselineQ1 2027
Current version
v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review
Previous edition
none, first edition of the series
Next edition
NR-COUNTRY-TUR-2027-Q1-v1.0.0
Latest version
resolve the concept DOI or the registry record
Correction route
Registry correction pathway
Notice types
erratum · addendum · supersession · withdrawal

C.3Corrections log

0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition’s current version.

EditionVersionDateStateChangeNotice
TURNR-COUNTRY-TUR-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026DraftBaseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,None

Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.

C.4Open record

This edition’s open record

Publication ID
NR-COUNTRY-TUR-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Desk identifier and series alias
NR-NAT-TUR-2026-BL
Collection
None
DOI
Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata
Versions
Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest
Bundle
RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest
Licence
CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0

Credit and identity

ORCID
Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record
ROR
Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone
CRediT
Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing
Account
None needed to contribute; never a password

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C.5Where this edition sits among the six pillars

Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.

  1. F03 Sealed observations and indicator series Foundry Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
  2. F04 After-action and scenario findings for Universe After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
  3. F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter Foundry National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
  4. Applied in editions Standards Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
  5. TUR edition Reports Turkiye 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.
  6. F06 Method and correction findings as change Standards Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
  7. F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year Universe Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
  8. Taught in the open Academy Risk Academy: taught in the open.

What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; TUR is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.

HandoffBetweenWhat crosses, and when
F03Foundry to ReportsSealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04Universe to ReportsAfter-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05Foundry to ReportsNational Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
RingNexus Standards to ReportsNexus Standards: applied in editions.
F06Reports to Nexus StandardsMethod and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12Reports to UniverseQ4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
RingReports to Risk AcademyRisk Academy: taught in the open.

Cite this annex

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Annex C: References and record. In Turkiye Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Turkiye’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-TUR-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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