References and record

Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

10 min read0 figures1 table0 notesNR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1AI is infrastructure, not only software
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Chip supply disruption under grid constraint
  8. 6Lenses and readings
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
    1. C.1 40 sources
    2. C.2 Publication record
    3. C.3 Corrections log
    4. C.4 Open record
    5. C.5 Where this edition sits among the six pillars
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

C.140 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

  1. 1International Energy Agency (ed.), Energy and AI. World Energy Outlook Special Report. IEA, Paris, 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  2. 2Stanford Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence (ed.), Artificial Intelligence Index Report 2025. Stanford HAI, Stanford, 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  3. 3Y. Bengio (ed.), International AI Safety Report. Department for Science, Innovation and Technology, London, January 2025. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  4. 4European Parliament and Council of the European Union (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2024/1689 laying down harmonised rules on artificial intelligence (Artificial Intelligence Act). Official Journal L, 12 July 2024, as amended. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
  5. 5NIST (ed.), Artificial Intelligence Risk Management Framework (AI RMF 1.0), NIST AI 100-1. NIST, Gaithersburg, MD, 2023. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  6. 6NIST (ed.), Artificial Intelligence Risk Management Framework: Generative Artificial Intelligence Profile, NIST AI 600-1. NIST, Gaithersburg, MD, 2024. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  7. 7ISO and IEC (eds.), ISO/IEC 42001:2023, Information technology, Artificial intelligence, Management system. ISO, Geneva, 2023. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  8. 8OECD (ed.), Recommendation of the Council on Artificial Intelligence, OECD/LEGAL/0449, as amended in 2024. OECD, Paris, 2024. Cited in chapter 6
  9. 9UNESCO (ed.), Recommendation on the Ethics of Artificial Intelligence. UNESCO, Paris, 2021. Cited in chapter 6
  10. 10Council of Europe (ed.), Framework Convention on Artificial Intelligence and Human Rights, Democracy and the Rule of Law, CETS No. 225. Council of Europe, Vilnius, 2024. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
  11. 11United Nations General Assembly (ed.), Pact for the Future, resolution 79/1, annex I: Global Digital Compact. United Nations, New York, 2024. Cited in chapter 6
  12. 12United Nations General Assembly (ed.), Resolution establishing the Independent International Scientific Panel on Artificial Intelligence and the Global Dialogue on Artificial Intelligence Governance. United Nations, New York, August 2025. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6
  13. 13UK Government (ed.), The Bletchley Declaration by Countries Attending the AI Safety Summit, 1–2 November 2023. London, 2023. Cited in chapter 4
  14. 14J. Sevilla and E. Roldán, “Training compute of frontier AI models grows by 4–5x per year.” Epoch AI, 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  15. 15A. Shehabi, S. J. Smith, A. Hubbard et al., 2024 United States Data Center Energy Usage Report. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, December 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  16. 16M. Cazzaniga, F. Jaumotte, L. Li et al., “Gen-AI: Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Work,” IMF Staff Discussion Note SDN/2024/001. IMF, Washington, DC, 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  17. 17Semiconductor Industry Association and Boston Consulting Group (eds.), Strengthening the Global Semiconductor Supply Chain in an Uncertain Era. SIA and BCG, Washington, DC, 2021. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  18. 18International Energy Agency (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025. IEA, Paris, 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
  19. 19Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China (ed.), Announcement on implementing export control on gallium- and germanium-related items. MOFCOM, Beijing, July 2023. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  20. 20World Economic Forum (ed.), Future of Jobs Report 2025. WEF, Cologny/Geneva, January 2025. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
  21. 21World Economic Forum (ed.), Global Cybersecurity Outlook 2025. WEF, Cologny/Geneva, January 2025. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  22. 22Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2025. Ember, London, 2025. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  23. 23E. Strubell, A. Ganesh and A. McCallum, “Energy and policy considerations for deep learning in NLP,” in Proceedings of the 57th Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics, pp. 3645–3650, 2019. Cited in chapter 6
  24. 24D. Patterson, J. Gonzalez, Q. Le et al., “Carbon emissions and large neural network training,” arXiv:2104.10350 (preprint, not peer-reviewed), 2021. Cited in chapter 6
  25. 25P. Li, J. Yang, M. A. Islam and S. Ren, “Making AI less ‘thirsty’: uncovering and addressing the secret water footprint of AI models,” arXiv:2304.03271 (preprint), 2023. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6, chapter 8
  26. 26R. Bommasani, D. A. Hudson, E. Adeli et al., “On the opportunities and risks of foundation models,” arXiv:2108.07258 (preprint), 2021. Cited in chapter 6
  27. 27Responsible AI Collaborative (ed.), AI Incident Database. incidentdatabase.ai, retrieved 2026-09-30. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  28. 28OECD (ed.), OECD AI Incidents and Hazards Monitor. OECD.AI, retrieved 2026-09-30. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  29. 29U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Industry and Security (ed.), Implementation of additional export controls: certain advanced computing and semiconductor manufacturing items. Federal Register, October 2022, as updated. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  30. 30G7 Hiroshima AI Process (ed.), Hiroshima Process International Code of Conduct for Organizations Developing Advanced AI Systems. G7, Hiroshima, 2023. Cited in chapter 6
  31. 31UN High-level Advisory Body on Artificial Intelligence (ed.), Governing AI for Humanity: Final Report. United Nations, New York, September 2024. Cited in chapter 6
  32. 32International Labour Organization (ed.), Generative AI and Jobs: A Refined Global Index of Occupational Exposure. ILO, Geneva, 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  33. 33UNCTAD (ed.), Technology and Innovation Report 2025: Inclusive Artificial Intelligence for Development. UNCTAD, Geneva, 2025. Cited in chapter 6
  34. 34ITU (ed.), Measuring Digital Development: Facts and Figures 2024. International Telecommunication Union, Geneva, 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
  35. 35S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports, The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.
  36. 36S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. NR-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0. Cited in chapter 3
  37. 37S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Water Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. NR-SECTOR-WATER-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 8
  38. 38S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Canada Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. NR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0.
  39. 39International Energy Agency (ed.), Global Energy Review 2025. IEA, Paris, 2025.
  40. 40IFRS Foundation (ed.), IFRS S2 Climate-related Disclosures. ISSB, London, 2023.

C.2Publication record

Publication

Title
Exponential Technology Report 2026, AI and Agentic Systems, Baseline Edition
Series
Reports · Exponential Technology Series XT-01
Edition
Baseline Edition 2026 · inaugural annual
Version
v1.0.0 · draft for stewardship review
Publication ID
NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Evidence close
30 September 2026
Publication date
October 2026
DOI
concept and version DOI at deposit

Publisher

Publisher of record
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium
Place
Toronto
Editor
Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor
Stewards
GCRI · technical truth · the Global Risks Forum (GRF) · public meaning · the Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · capital meaning
Licence
text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source
Copyright
© 2026 GCRI · Nexus Consortium
Language
English (en-GB) source edition
Correspondence
Registry correction pathway · editorial office

Colophon

Format
A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF
Typefaces
Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)
Design standard
Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII
Accessibility
tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure
Production
Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version

Table C.1Release path for this version
StepWhat happensWhen
Drafteditorial self-check complete at evidence closeOctober 2026
Steward reviewfive passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N)Q4 2026
Approvalpublication authority approves the exact digestbefore release
Depositconcept and version DOI minted; registry pointer setat release
Successionthe 2027 AI edition reports changes against this baseline2027
Current version
v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review
Previous edition
none, first edition of the series
Next edition
NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2027-v1.0.0
Latest version
resolve the concept DOI or the registry record
Correction route
Registry correction pathway
Notice types
erratum · addendum · supersession · withdrawal

C.3Corrections log

0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition’s current version.

EditionVersionDateStateChangeNotice
XT-01NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026DraftBaseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,None

Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.

C.4Open record

This edition’s open record

Publication ID
NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Series alias
NR-XTC-XT-01-2026-BL
DOI
Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata
Versions
Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest
Bundle
RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest
Licence
CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0

Credit and identity

ORCID
Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record
ROR
Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone
CRediT
Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing
Account
None needed to contribute; never a password

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C.5Where this edition sits among the six pillars

Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.

  1. F03 Sealed observations and indicator series Foundry Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
  2. F04 After-action and scenario findings for Universe After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
  3. F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter Foundry National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
  4. Applied in editions Standards Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
  5. XT-01 edition Reports AI and Agentic Systems 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.
  6. F06 Method and correction findings as change Standards Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
  7. F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year Universe Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
  8. Taught in the open Academy Risk Academy: taught in the open.

What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; XT-01 is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.

HandoffBetweenWhat crosses, and when
F03Foundry to ReportsSealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04Universe to ReportsAfter-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05Foundry to ReportsNational Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
RingNexus Standards to ReportsNexus Standards: applied in editions.
F06Reports to Nexus StandardsMethod and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12Reports to UniverseQ4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
RingReports to Risk AcademyRisk Academy: taught in the open.

Cite this annex

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Annex C: References and record. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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