Exponential Technology Report 2026: 6G, AI-RAN and Next-Generation Connectivity

S.1Abstract

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the 6G baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

1. IMT-2030 is the ITU framework, with research targets; 3GPP Release 21 is the first normative 6G release.¹³

   What is 6G?Reported

2. The Stage-3 freeze is planned for December 2028; ITU proposals run to February 2029.²³

   When do the standards settle?Reported

3. Close to 3.3 billion subscriptions after Q2 2026.⁶

   How far has 5G come?Reported

4. Stable in 2025 and concentrated; 1% a year growth forecast.⁹

   What does the equipment market look like?Reported

5. A company announcement and a survey; no independent measurement was found.¹⁰¹⁶

   What is AI-RAN evidence?Reported

6. Not published for AI-RAN platforms; the energy cost of AI is often overlooked.¹⁶

   What is the energy footprint?Reported

7. A Digital Networks Act and EUR 900 million of public funding for 6G research.¹¹¹²

   What does Europe propose?Reported

8. Compute-heavy radio built ahead of the standards, with energy cost unmeasured. SCN-XT09-CMP-01

   What will 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 5NRF-XTECH-6G-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-002

3GPP agreed in June 2026 that Release 21 is the first normative 6G release, with a Stage-3 freeze in December 2028.

The first 6G protocol text freezes in late 2028, so 6G radio equipment cannot be specified before then. Release 20 carries 6G studies, and its Stage-3 work for 5G-Advanced is targeted for March 2027⁴. ITU runs a parallel process with candidate proposals to February 2029².

S.4At a glance

S.5What each steward reads in it

S.6What this edition is, and is not

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1ITU-R (ed.), Recommendation ITU-R M.2160-0, Framework and overall objectives of the future development of IMT for 2030 and beyond, November 2023 (PDF opened; capability research targets in section 4). International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 33GPP (ed.), Release 21 page (timetable agreed at the June 2026 TSG#112 plenaries; first normative 6G release; Stage-3 freeze December 2028; ASN.1 freeze March 2029). 3rd Generation Partnership Project, Sophia Antipolis. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 2ITU-R (ed.), IMT-2030 process page of Working Party 5D (timeline; candidate proposal window February 2027 to February 2029; draft reports 5/116 and 5/119 completed in 2026 and due for SG 5 approval in December 2026). International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 6Ericsson (ed.), Ericsson Mobility Report, June 2026, mobile subscriptions outlook (company report and forecast; 5G subscriptions close to 3.3 billion after Q2 2026; forecast 6.4 billion for 2031; over 90 providers with 5G standalone of about 390 with 5G; regional 5G penetration). Ericsson, Stockholm. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 9Dell’Oro Group (ed.), RAN market stabilised in 2025 (press release of 17 February 2026; analyst release; stable 2025 revenue; Huawei, Ericsson, Nokia, ZTE and Samsung in unchanged order; concentration at a ten-year high; 1% a year growth forecast 2025 to 2030; about a fifth of value lost 2022 to 2024). Dell’Oro Group, Redwood City. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 10NVIDIA and Nokia (eds.), NVIDIA to invest USD 1 billion in Nokia to accelerate AI-RAN innovation (joint company press release of 28 October 2025; USD 6.01 per share; ARC-Pro platform; T-Mobile field evaluations from 2026; company announcement, weak evidence). NVIDIA, Santa Clara, and Nokia, Espoo. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 16Sthankiya, K., Saeed, N., McSorley, G., Jaber, M. and Clegg, R.G., A Survey on AI-driven Energy Optimisation in Terrestrial Next Generation Radio Access Networks, IEEE Access 12, 157540 to 157555, 2024 (arXiv:2411.02164, submitted 4 November 2024; abstract page opened). IEEE, Piscataway. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 11European Commission (ed.), Digital Networks Act policy page (proposal adopted 21 January 2026; single passport; EU satellite spectrum authorisation; copper phase-out plans; preparedness plan). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 12European Commission (ed.), Smart Networks and Services Joint Undertaking policy page (at least EUR 1.8 billion for 2021 to 2027; EUR 900 million public contribution; 20 6G research projects with EUR 116 million announced March 2026). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 43GPP (ed.), Release 20 page (5G-Advanced timeline; early 6G studies listed, including TR 22.870 and TR 38.914; work plan of March 2026). 3rd Generation Partnership Project, Sophia Antipolis. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

• Where is 6G risk concentrated?
• Which couplings carry 6G shocks into other systems?
• Which 6G capabilities hold under compound stress?
• What must 2027 evidence measure first?

In this part

• Narrative
• Headline finding
• Lead figure
• Five footprint and governance chapters
• Twelve-domain reading
• Sector screens
• Dependency matrix
• Risk objects
• Capability ladder
• Scenario
• Three lenses
• Portfolio

1.2The argument

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The 6G-centred matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems, read for their 6G content. Strengths are Nexus estimates (ESTIMATED) from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the graph that 2027 evidence will test.

Transmission paths

1. 01

   TRD → INF

   Supplier concentration and rules shape which radio and compute platforms operators can buy.

   Reported RAN concentration⁹; EU proposal¹¹

2. 02

   AIC → ENE

   Compute-heavy radio sites raise power demand if AI load is added.

   Inferred survey on the energy cost of AI¹⁶

3. 03

   INF → DAT

   Sensing and positioning turn base stations into data sources.

   Inferred ITU targets¹; sensing survey¹⁹

4. 04

   FIN → INF

   Operator investment in 5G sets the base for 6G.

   Reported RAN market⁹; Ericsson forecast⁶

5. 05

   GOV → INF

   Spectrum and standards decisions set timing.

   Reported ITU process²; 3GPP³

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1ITU-R (ed.), Recommendation ITU-R M.2160-0, Framework and overall objectives of the future development of IMT for 2030 and beyond, November 2023 (PDF opened; capability research targets in section 4). International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 6Ericsson (ed.), Ericsson Mobility Report, June 2026, mobile subscriptions outlook (company report and forecast; 5G subscriptions close to 3.3 billion after Q2 2026; forecast 6.4 billion for 2031; over 90 providers with 5G standalone of about 390 with 5G; regional 5G penetration). Ericsson, Stockholm. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 9Dell’Oro Group (ed.), RAN market stabilised in 2025 (press release of 17 February 2026; analyst release; stable 2025 revenue; Huawei, Ericsson, Nokia, ZTE and Samsung in unchanged order; concentration at a ten-year high; 1% a year growth forecast 2025 to 2030; about a fifth of value lost 2022 to 2024). Dell’Oro Group, Redwood City. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 33GPP (ed.), Release 21 page (timetable agreed at the June 2026 TSG#112 plenaries; first normative 6G release; Stage-3 freeze December 2028; ASN.1 freeze March 2029). 3rd Generation Partnership Project, Sophia Antipolis. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 2ITU-R (ed.), IMT-2030 process page of Working Party 5D (timeline; candidate proposal window February 2027 to February 2029; draft reports 5/116 and 5/119 completed in 2026 and due for SG 5 approval in December 2026). International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 10NVIDIA and Nokia (eds.), NVIDIA to invest USD 1 billion in Nokia to accelerate AI-RAN innovation (joint company press release of 28 October 2025; USD 6.01 per share; ARC-Pro platform; T-Mobile field evaluations from 2026; company announcement, weak evidence). NVIDIA, Santa Clara, and Nokia, Espoo. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 16Sthankiya, K., Saeed, N., McSorley, G., Jaber, M. and Clegg, R.G., A Survey on AI-driven Energy Optimisation in Terrestrial Next Generation Radio Access Networks, IEEE Access 12, 157540 to 157555, 2024 (arXiv:2411.02164, submitted 4 November 2024; abstract page opened). IEEE, Piscataway. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 11European Commission (ed.), Digital Networks Act policy page (proposal adopted 21 January 2026; single passport; EU satellite spectrum authorisation; copper phase-out plans; preparedness plan). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 19Liu, F., Cui, Y., Masouros, C., Xu, J., Han, T.X., Eldar, Y.C. and Buzzi, S., Integrated Sensing and Communications: Towards Dual-functional Wireless Networks for 6G and Beyond, arXiv:2108.07165, submitted 16 August 2021 (abstract page opened). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 5NRF-XTECH-6G-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-002

3GPP agreed in June 2026 that Release 21 is the first normative 6G release, with a Stage-3 freeze in December 2028.

Implication

The first 6G protocol text freezes in late 2028, so 6G radio equipment cannot be specified before then. Release 20 carries 6G studies, and its Stage-3 work for 5G-Advanced is targeted for March 2027⁴. ITU runs a parallel process with candidate proposals to February 2029².

What would move it

The Release 21 package approval in March 2027, the ITU evaluation reports and the WRC-27 outcomes would each move this finding.

2.2Infrastructure

1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-XTECH-6G-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-001

   ITU-R M.2160 sets research-target examples for IMT-2030 of 50, 100 and 200 Gbit/s peak data rate, 300 and 500 Mbit/s user experienced data rate, 0.1 to 1 ms air-interface latency and 1 to 10 cm positioning accuracy.¹

2. ReportedEQL 5NRF-XTECH-6G-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-002

   3GPP agreed in June 2026 that Release 21 is the first normative 6G release, with a Stage-1 freeze in March 2027, a Stage-3 freeze in December 2028 and an ASN.1 freeze in March 2029.³⁴

3. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-6G-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-003

   ITU expects candidate IMT-2030 radio interface proposals between February 2027 and February 2029, and WP 5D completed draft technical performance requirements, with 20 minimum requirements, in February 2026.²

4. ReportedEQL 3NRF-XTECH-6G-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-004

   Ericsson reports close to 3.3 billion 5G subscriptions after the second quarter of 2026 and forecasts 6.4 billion, two thirds of mobile subscriptions, by the end of 2031.⁶

5. ReportedEQL 3NRF-XTECH-6G-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-005

   More than 90 of about 390 service providers with commercial 5G had launched 5G standalone by mid-2026, and Ericsson cut its 2031 standalone forecast to about 3.9 billion subscriptions.⁶

2.3Finance

1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-XTECH-6G-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-006

   The RAN market was stable in 2025 after losing about a fifth of its value from 2022 to 2024, supplier concentration reached a ten-year high, and Dell’Oro forecasts growth of 1% a year from 2025 to 2030.⁹

2.4AIC

1. ReportedEQL 2NRF-XTECH-6G-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-AIC-007

   NVIDIA and Nokia announced on 28 October 2025 a USD 1 billion NVIDIA investment and AI-RAN products, with T-Mobile field evaluations from 2026, in a company announcement.¹⁰

2.5Energy

1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-XTECH-6G-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-008

   A peer-reviewed survey finds that the energy cost of AI techniques in radio networks is often overlooked and that real-world power data is hard to obtain.¹⁶

2. ReportedEQL 2NRF-XTECH-6G-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-009

   GSMA Intelligence is reported to put the radio access network at about 73% of an operator’s energy use, while another figure of 87% circulates, from search summaries.²²

2.6Governance

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-6G-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-010

   The European Commission proposed the Digital Networks Act on 21 January 2026, with a single passport for spectrum authorisation, an EU satellite authorisation and national copper phase-out plans.¹¹

2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-6G-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-011

   The EU contributes EUR 900 million to the Smart Networks and Services Joint Undertaking for 2021 to 2027, and in March 2026 announced 20 6G research projects receiving EUR 116 million.¹²

2.7Systemic

1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-XTECH-6G-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

   The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is compute-heavy radio networks built before the first normative 6G specifications settle, with energy cost unmeasured. § scenario

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 33GPP (ed.), Release 21 page (timetable agreed at the June 2026 TSG#112 plenaries; first normative 6G release; Stage-3 freeze December 2028; ASN.1 freeze March 2029). 3rd Generation Partnership Project, Sophia Antipolis. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 43GPP (ed.), Release 20 page (5G-Advanced timeline; early 6G studies listed, including TR 22.870 and TR 38.914; work plan of March 2026). 3rd Generation Partnership Project, Sophia Antipolis. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 2ITU-R (ed.), IMT-2030 process page of Working Party 5D (timeline; candidate proposal window February 2027 to February 2029; draft reports 5/116 and 5/119 completed in 2026 and due for SG 5 approval in December 2026). International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 1ITU-R (ed.), Recommendation ITU-R M.2160-0, Framework and overall objectives of the future development of IMT for 2030 and beyond, November 2023 (PDF opened; capability research targets in section 4). International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 6Ericsson (ed.), Ericsson Mobility Report, June 2026, mobile subscriptions outlook (company report and forecast; 5G subscriptions close to 3.3 billion after Q2 2026; forecast 6.4 billion for 2031; over 90 providers with 5G standalone of about 390 with 5G; regional 5G penetration). Ericsson, Stockholm. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 9Dell’Oro Group (ed.), RAN market stabilised in 2025 (press release of 17 February 2026; analyst release; stable 2025 revenue; Huawei, Ericsson, Nokia, ZTE and Samsung in unchanged order; concentration at a ten-year high; 1% a year growth forecast 2025 to 2030; about a fifth of value lost 2022 to 2024). Dell’Oro Group, Redwood City. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 10NVIDIA and Nokia (eds.), NVIDIA to invest USD 1 billion in Nokia to accelerate AI-RAN innovation (joint company press release of 28 October 2025; USD 6.01 per share; ARC-Pro platform; T-Mobile field evaluations from 2026; company announcement, weak evidence). NVIDIA, Santa Clara, and Nokia, Espoo. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 16Sthankiya, K., Saeed, N., McSorley, G., Jaber, M. and Clegg, R.G., A Survey on AI-driven Energy Optimisation in Terrestrial Next Generation Radio Access Networks, IEEE Access 12, 157540 to 157555, 2024 (arXiv:2411.02164, submitted 4 November 2024; abstract page opened). IEEE, Piscataway. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 22UNVERIFIED, not opened: GSMA Intelligence (ed.), analysis of mobile network energy use (RAN about 73% of operator energy; energy 20% to 40% of operator operating cost), taken from search-result summaries; another figure of 87% circulates and the two are not reconciled. GSMA, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 11European Commission (ed.), Digital Networks Act policy page (proposal adopted 21 January 2026; single passport; EU satellite spectrum authorisation; copper phase-out plans; preparedness plan). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 12European Commission (ed.), Smart Networks and Services Joint Undertaking policy page (at least EUR 1.8 billion for 2021 to 2027; EUR 900 million public contribution; 20 6G research projects with EUR 116 million announced March 2026). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read through 6G, in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries 6G risk into each domain.

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened for their dependence on 6G, on the same grammar as every national edition. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 33GPP (ed.), Release 21 page (timetable agreed at the June 2026 TSG#112 plenaries; first normative 6G release; Stage-3 freeze December 2028; ASN.1 freeze March 2029). 3rd Generation Partnership Project, Sophia Antipolis. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 1ITU-R (ed.), Recommendation ITU-R M.2160-0, Framework and overall objectives of the future development of IMT for 2030 and beyond, November 2023 (PDF opened; capability research targets in section 4). International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 6Ericsson (ed.), Ericsson Mobility Report, June 2026, mobile subscriptions outlook (company report and forecast; 5G subscriptions close to 3.3 billion after Q2 2026; forecast 6.4 billion for 2031; over 90 providers with 5G standalone of about 390 with 5G; regional 5G penetration). Ericsson, Stockholm. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 9Dell’Oro Group (ed.), RAN market stabilised in 2025 (press release of 17 February 2026; analyst release; stable 2025 revenue; Huawei, Ericsson, Nokia, ZTE and Samsung in unchanged order; concentration at a ten-year high; 1% a year growth forecast 2025 to 2030; about a fifth of value lost 2022 to 2024). Dell’Oro Group, Redwood City. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 12European Commission (ed.), Smart Networks and Services Joint Undertaking policy page (at least EUR 1.8 billion for 2021 to 2027; EUR 900 million public contribution; 20 6G research projects with EUR 116 million announced March 2026). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 2ITU-R (ed.), IMT-2030 process page of Working Party 5D (timeline; candidate proposal window February 2027 to February 2029; draft reports 5/116 and 5/119 completed in 2026 and due for SG 5 approval in December 2026). International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 16Sthankiya, K., Saeed, N., McSorley, G., Jaber, M. and Clegg, R.G., A Survey on AI-driven Energy Optimisation in Terrestrial Next Generation Radio Access Networks, IEEE Access 12, 157540 to 157555, 2024 (arXiv:2411.02164, submitted 4 November 2024; abstract page opened). IEEE, Piscataway. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 22UNVERIFIED, not opened: GSMA Intelligence (ed.), analysis of mobile network energy use (RAN about 73% of operator energy; energy 20% to 40% of operator operating cost), taken from search-result summaries; another figure of 87% circulates and the two are not reconciled. GSMA, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 43GPP (ed.), Release 20 page (5G-Advanced timeline; early 6G studies listed, including TR 22.870 and TR 38.914; work plan of March 2026). 3rd Generation Partnership Project, Sophia Antipolis. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 15ETSI (ed.), Industry Specification Group on Integrated Sensing and Communications, technology page (pre-standards coordination; reports ETSI GR ISC 003 announced 26 February 2026 and ETSI GR ISC 004 announced 2 March 2026). European Telecommunications Standards Institute, Sophia Antipolis. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 10NVIDIA and Nokia (eds.), NVIDIA to invest USD 1 billion in Nokia to accelerate AI-RAN innovation (joint company press release of 28 October 2025; USD 6.01 per share; ARC-Pro platform; T-Mobile field evaluations from 2026; company announcement, weak evidence). NVIDIA, Santa Clara, and Nokia, Espoo. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 11European Commission (ed.), Digital Networks Act policy page (proposal adopted 21 January 2026; single passport; EU satellite spectrum authorisation; copper phase-out plans; preparedness plan). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 8ITU (ed.), Facts and Figures 2025 (almost three quarters of the world online; 2.2 billion offline; 5G coverage above half of the population; page read, no absolute online count stated). International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 19Liu, F., Cui, Y., Masouros, C., Xu, J., Han, T.X., Eldar, Y.C. and Buzzi, S., Integrated Sensing and Communications: Towards Dual-functional Wireless Networks for 6G and Beyond, arXiv:2108.07165, submitted 16 August 2021 (abstract page opened). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 143GPP (ed.), Non-terrestrial networks overview (first normative requirements in Release 17; Release 19 core completed September 2025 and performance March 2026). 3rd Generation Partnership Project, Sophia Antipolis. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 18Polese, M., Bonati, L., D’Oro, S., Basagni, S. and Melodia, T., Understanding O-RAN: Architecture, Interfaces, Algorithms, Security, and Research Challenges, arXiv:2202.01032, submitted 2 February 2022 (abstract page opened). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 20Liu, A. et al., A Survey on Fundamental Limits of Integrated Sensing and Communication, arXiv:2104.09954, submitted 16 April 2021 (abstract page opened). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 21Zhang, D. et al., Integrated Sensing and Communications Over the Years: An Evolution Perspective, arXiv:2504.06830, submitted 9 April 2025, version 4 of 19 January 2026 (abstract page opened). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

1. InferredEQL 3RSK-XT09-SPC-001

   Spectrum timetable and fragmentation

   Driver

   WRC-27 decisions on candidate bands are pending and the ITU window runs to 2029²²⁵

   Exposure

   timing and cost of 6G launch

   Vulnerability

   regional differences in band choice

   Capacity

   ITU process and 3GPP timetable²³

   Cascade

   GOV → INF, FIN

   Horizon

   1 to 5 years

2. Expert inputEQL 2RSK-XT09-CMP-002

   Compute-heavy radio before standards settle

   Driver

   AI-RAN platforms announced for current networks while the first 6G release freezes in 2028³¹⁰

   Exposure

   operator capital and site power

   Vulnerability

   platform lock-in; unmeasured energy cost

   Capacity

   open interfaces and common benchmarks¹³¹⁸

   Cascade

   AIC → ENE, FIN

   Horizon

   1 to 5 years

3. InferredEQL 3RSK-XT09-ENE-003

   Network energy and AI load

   Driver

   traffic growth of about 2.2 times to 2031 and added AI load⁷¹⁶

   Exposure

   operator energy cost; site power supply

   Vulnerability

   no common measure of energy per bit

   Capacity

   energy-saving methods surveyed¹⁶²²

   Cascade

   ENE → INF, CLI

   Horizon

   1 to 10 years

4. InferredEQL 3RSK-XT09-SUP-004

   Supplier concentration

   Driver

   concentration at a ten-year high⁹

   Exposure

   national networks; procurement choices

   Vulnerability

   few suppliers; chip and mineral inputs not mapped³⁴

   Capacity

   open interfaces, the EU proposal and the 2020 toolbox¹¹¹³³⁵

   Cascade

   TRD → INF, FIN

   Horizon

   1 to 5 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence for 6G at the global level.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 2ITU-R (ed.), IMT-2030 process page of Working Party 5D (timeline; candidate proposal window February 2027 to February 2029; draft reports 5/116 and 5/119 completed in 2026 and due for SG 5 approval in December 2026). International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: ITU (ed.), World Radiocommunication Conference 2023 final acts and Resolution 256 on agenda item 1.7 (IMT in 4400 to 4800 MHz, 7125 to 8400 MHz and 14.8 to 15.35 GHz), taken from conference slides and national briefs in search results. International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 33GPP (ed.), Release 21 page (timetable agreed at the June 2026 TSG#112 plenaries; first normative 6G release; Stage-3 freeze December 2028; ASN.1 freeze March 2029). 3rd Generation Partnership Project, Sophia Antipolis. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 10NVIDIA and Nokia (eds.), NVIDIA to invest USD 1 billion in Nokia to accelerate AI-RAN innovation (joint company press release of 28 October 2025; USD 6.01 per share; ARC-Pro platform; T-Mobile field evaluations from 2026; company announcement, weak evidence). NVIDIA, Santa Clara, and Nokia, Espoo. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 13O-RAN Alliance (ed.), About page (founded February 2018 by AT&T, China Mobile, Deutsche Telekom, NTT DOCOMO and Orange; German entity since August 2018; no member count or AI statement on the page). O-RAN Alliance, Alfter. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 18Polese, M., Bonati, L., D’Oro, S., Basagni, S. and Melodia, T., Understanding O-RAN: Architecture, Interfaces, Algorithms, Security, and Research Challenges, arXiv:2202.01032, submitted 2 February 2022 (abstract page opened). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 7Ericsson (ed.), Ericsson Mobility Report, June 2026, mobile traffic forecast (company forecast; 146 EB per month excluding FWA at the end of 2025; 328 EB per month in 2031; 22 GB per active smartphone per month in 2025). Ericsson, Stockholm. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 16Sthankiya, K., Saeed, N., McSorley, G., Jaber, M. and Clegg, R.G., A Survey on AI-driven Energy Optimisation in Terrestrial Next Generation Radio Access Networks, IEEE Access 12, 157540 to 157555, 2024 (arXiv:2411.02164, submitted 4 November 2024; abstract page opened). IEEE, Piscataway. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 22UNVERIFIED, not opened: GSMA Intelligence (ed.), analysis of mobile network energy use (RAN about 73% of operator energy; energy 20% to 40% of operator operating cost), taken from search-result summaries; another figure of 87% circulates and the two are not reconciled. GSMA, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 9Dell’Oro Group (ed.), RAN market stabilised in 2025 (press release of 17 February 2026; analyst release; stable 2025 revenue; Huawei, Ericsson, Nokia, ZTE and Samsung in unchanged order; concentration at a ten-year high; 1% a year growth forecast 2025 to 2030; about a fifth of value lost 2022 to 2024). Dell’Oro Group, Redwood City. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026, which returned an access error when fetched; no figure taken from it. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 11European Commission (ed.), Digital Networks Act policy page (proposal adopted 21 January 2026; single passport; EU satellite spectrum authorisation; copper phase-out plans; preparedness plan). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Commission and NIS Cooperation Group (eds.), Cybersecurity of 5G networks, EU toolbox of risk mitigating measures, January 2020, cited from memory; the policy page returned not-found. Brussels. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 1ITU-R (ed.), Recommendation ITU-R M.2160-0, Framework and overall objectives of the future development of IMT for 2030 and beyond, November 2023 (PDF opened; capability research targets in section 4). International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 43GPP (ed.), Release 20 page (5G-Advanced timeline; early 6G studies listed, including TR 22.870 and TR 38.914; work plan of March 2026). 3rd Generation Partnership Project, Sophia Antipolis. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 12European Commission (ed.), Smart Networks and Services Joint Undertaking policy page (at least EUR 1.8 billion for 2021 to 2027; EUR 900 million public contribution; 20 6G research projects with EUR 116 million announced March 2026). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 15ETSI (ed.), Industry Specification Group on Integrated Sensing and Communications, technology page (pre-standards coordination; reports ETSI GR ISC 003 announced 26 February 2026 and ETSI GR ISC 004 announced 2 March 2026). European Telecommunications Standards Institute, Sophia Antipolis. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 6Ericsson (ed.), Ericsson Mobility Report, June 2026, mobile subscriptions outlook (company report and forecast; 5G subscriptions close to 3.3 billion after Q2 2026; forecast 6.4 billion for 2031; over 90 providers with 5G standalone of about 390 with 5G; regional 5G penetration). Ericsson, Stockholm. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 19Liu, F., Cui, Y., Masouros, C., Xu, J., Han, T.X., Eldar, Y.C. and Buzzi, S., Integrated Sensing and Communications: Towards Dual-functional Wireless Networks for 6G and Beyond, arXiv:2108.07165, submitted 16 August 2021 (abstract page opened). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 20Liu, A. et al., A Survey on Fundamental Limits of Integrated Sensing and Communication, arXiv:2104.09954, submitted 16 April 2021 (abstract page opened). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-XT09-CMP-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline

the 2026 reference state in this edition

Drivers

operators add AI compute to radio sites for 5G-Advanced while the first normative 6G specifications freeze only in 2028

Analogues

the vendor announcement of 2025 and the Release 21 timetable³¹⁰

Interventions

none modelled: the specification describes the unmitigated case

Run state

narrative specification; quantified run scheduled for 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

1. 1

   AIC → INF

   operators begin field evaluations of AI-RAN platforms

   2026

2. 2

   INF → ENE

   site power rises where compute is added; energy per bit is not measured

   2024

3. 3

   FIN → INF

   capital commits to platforms before 6G text freezes

   2025

4. 4

   TRD → INF

   supplier concentration limits the platform choices

   2025

5. 5

   GOV → INF

   spectrum decisions and national rules diverge

   2026

6. 6

   ENE → CLI

   network energy enters emissions reporting

   2024

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-XT09-CMP-01 would travel through 6G, AI-RAN and Next-Generation Connectivity’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: 6G, AI-RAN and Next-Generation Connectivity 2026, scenario SCN-XT09-CMP-01 (2026); 6G, AI-RAN and Next-Generation Connectivity 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 33GPP (ed.), Release 21 page (timetable agreed at the June 2026 TSG#112 plenaries; first normative 6G release; Stage-3 freeze December 2028; ASN.1 freeze March 2029). 3rd Generation Partnership Project, Sophia Antipolis. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 10NVIDIA and Nokia (eds.), NVIDIA to invest USD 1 billion in Nokia to accelerate AI-RAN innovation (joint company press release of 28 October 2025; USD 6.01 per share; ARC-Pro platform; T-Mobile field evaluations from 2026; company announcement, weak evidence). NVIDIA, Santa Clara, and Nokia, Espoo. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject

Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.

6.2Three lenses

One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.

6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions

How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for 6G. The standards are a preparatory working draft (2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.

6.4GCRI reading: the model card

GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology

6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.

6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 6G readiness pack

The registers that open the 2027 global cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.

Publication dispositions

• Publish
• Hold
• Needs evidence
• Restricted
• Superseded

6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Instruments and published guidance that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.

• IN FORCE
• PUBLISHED
• DRAFT
• PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY

6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments

The review behind this edition covers 6G assessments, peer-reviewed science and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Systematic reviews for each agenda item begin in 2027.

Review protocol

Question

What does the published evidence establish about 6G and next-generation connectivity as infrastructure and its couplings?

Sources searched

peer-reviewed journals and preprints; standards bodies; policy pages; market and company releases

Window

releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026

Selection

sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition

Next step

systematic reviews for agenda items 01 to 05 in 2027

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 8ITU (ed.), Facts and Figures 2025 (almost three quarters of the world online; 2.2 billion offline; 5G coverage above half of the population; page read, no absolute online count stated). International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 9Dell’Oro Group (ed.), RAN market stabilised in 2025 (press release of 17 February 2026; analyst release; stable 2025 revenue; Huawei, Ericsson, Nokia, ZTE and Samsung in unchanged order; concentration at a ten-year high; 1% a year growth forecast 2025 to 2030; about a fifth of value lost 2022 to 2024). Dell’Oro Group, Redwood City. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 12European Commission (ed.), Smart Networks and Services Joint Undertaking policy page (at least EUR 1.8 billion for 2021 to 2027; EUR 900 million public contribution; 20 6G research projects with EUR 116 million announced March 2026). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 1ITU-R (ed.), Recommendation ITU-R M.2160-0, Framework and overall objectives of the future development of IMT for 2030 and beyond, November 2023 (PDF opened; capability research targets in section 4). International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: ITU-R (ed.), Report ITU-R M.2516, Future technology trends of terrestrial IMT systems towards 2030 and beyond, December 2022, named in Recommendation M.2160 and the ITU process page. International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: ITU-R (ed.), Report ITU-R M.2541, technical feasibility of IMT in bands above 100 GHz, 2024, named on the ITU process page. International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 43GPP (ed.), Release 20 page (5G-Advanced timeline; early 6G studies listed, including TR 22.870 and TR 38.914; work plan of March 2026). 3rd Generation Partnership Project, Sophia Antipolis. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: 3GPP (ed.), TR 22.870, Study on 6G use cases and service requirements, named on the Release 20 and 21 pages as completed in Release 20. 3rd Generation Partnership Project, Sophia Antipolis. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: 3GPP (ed.), TR 38.914, 6G scenarios and requirements, named on the Release 20 and 21 pages. 3rd Generation Partnership Project, Sophia Antipolis. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 33GPP (ed.), Release 21 page (timetable agreed at the June 2026 TSG#112 plenaries; first normative 6G release; Stage-3 freeze December 2028; ASN.1 freeze March 2029). 3rd Generation Partnership Project, Sophia Antipolis. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 15ETSI (ed.), Industry Specification Group on Integrated Sensing and Communications, technology page (pre-standards coordination; reports ETSI GR ISC 003 announced 26 February 2026 and ETSI GR ISC 004 announced 2 March 2026). European Telecommunications Standards Institute, Sophia Antipolis. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 13O-RAN Alliance (ed.), About page (founded February 2018 by AT&T, China Mobile, Deutsche Telekom, NTT DOCOMO and Orange; German entity since August 2018; no member count or AI statement on the page). O-RAN Alliance, Alfter. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 11European Commission (ed.), Digital Networks Act policy page (proposal adopted 21 January 2026; single passport; EU satellite spectrum authorisation; copper phase-out plans; preparedness plan). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: ITU (ed.), World Radiocommunication Conference 2023 final acts and Resolution 256 on agenda item 1.7 (IMT in 4400 to 4800 MHz, 7125 to 8400 MHz and 14.8 to 15.35 GHz), taken from conference slides and national briefs in search results. International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Commission and NIS Cooperation Group (eds.), Cybersecurity of 5G networks, EU toolbox of risk mitigating measures, January 2020, cited from memory; the policy page returned not-found. Brussels. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 2ITU-R (ed.), IMT-2030 process page of Working Party 5D (timeline; candidate proposal window February 2027 to February 2029; draft reports 5/116 and 5/119 completed in 2026 and due for SG 5 approval in December 2026). International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 16Sthankiya, K., Saeed, N., McSorley, G., Jaber, M. and Clegg, R.G., A Survey on AI-driven Energy Optimisation in Terrestrial Next Generation Radio Access Networks, IEEE Access 12, 157540 to 157555, 2024 (arXiv:2411.02164, submitted 4 November 2024; abstract page opened). IEEE, Piscataway. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 17Saad, W., Bennis, M. and Chen, M., A Vision of 6G Wireless Systems: Applications, Trends, Technologies, and Open Research Problems, IEEE Network, 2019 (arXiv:1902.10265, submitted 26 February 2019; abstract page opened). IEEE, Piscataway. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 18Polese, M., Bonati, L., D’Oro, S., Basagni, S. and Melodia, T., Understanding O-RAN: Architecture, Interfaces, Algorithms, Security, and Research Challenges, arXiv:2202.01032, submitted 2 February 2022 (abstract page opened). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 19Liu, F., Cui, Y., Masouros, C., Xu, J., Han, T.X., Eldar, Y.C. and Buzzi, S., Integrated Sensing and Communications: Towards Dual-functional Wireless Networks for 6G and Beyond, arXiv:2108.07165, submitted 16 August 2021 (abstract page opened). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21. 20Liu, A. et al., A Survey on Fundamental Limits of Integrated Sensing and Communication, arXiv:2104.09954, submitted 16 April 2021 (abstract page opened). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22. 21Zhang, D. et al., Integrated Sensing and Communications Over the Years: An Evolution Perspective, arXiv:2504.06830, submitted 9 April 2025, version 4 of 19 January 2026 (abstract page opened). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Rappaport, T.S. et al., Wireless Communications and Applications Above 100 GHz: Opportunities and Challenges for 6G and Beyond, IEEE Access 7, 78729 to 78757, 2019, cited from memory. IEEE, Piscataway. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24. 143GPP (ed.), Non-terrestrial networks overview (first normative requirements in Release 17; Release 19 core completed September 2025 and performance March 2026). 3rd Generation Partnership Project, Sophia Antipolis. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
25. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: US National Telecommunications and Information Administration (ed.), National Spectrum Strategy, November 2023, cited from memory; the page fetched did not carry it. NTIA, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
26. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: IMT-2030 (6G) Promotion Group (ed.), white papers on 6G vision and candidate technologies, 2021 to 2023, cited from memory. China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, Beijing. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
27. 6Ericsson (ed.), Ericsson Mobility Report, June 2026, mobile subscriptions outlook (company report and forecast; 5G subscriptions close to 3.3 billion after Q2 2026; forecast 6.4 billion for 2031; over 90 providers with 5G standalone of about 390 with 5G; regional 5G penetration). Ericsson, Stockholm. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
28. 7Ericsson (ed.), Ericsson Mobility Report, June 2026, mobile traffic forecast (company forecast; 146 EB per month excluding FWA at the end of 2025; 328 EB per month in 2031; 22 GB per active smartphone per month in 2025). Ericsson, Stockholm. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
29. 23UNVERIFIED, not opened: Omdia (ed.), RAN market estimate of about USD 35 billion for 2025, taken from a trade summary of an analyst release. Omdia, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
30. 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: Omdia (ed.), projection that the AI-RAN market could exceed USD 200 billion by 2030, taken from coverage of the NVIDIA and Nokia announcement; analyst projection, weak evidence. Omdia, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
31. 10NVIDIA and Nokia (eds.), NVIDIA to invest USD 1 billion in Nokia to accelerate AI-RAN innovation (joint company press release of 28 October 2025; USD 6.01 per share; ARC-Pro platform; T-Mobile field evaluations from 2026; company announcement, weak evidence). NVIDIA, Santa Clara, and Nokia, Espoo. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
32. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: ABI Research (ed.), Are GPUs worth considering for 5G RAN? (analyst commentary on GPU-based RAN efficiency and vendor trial claims), taken from a search-result summary. ABI Research, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
33. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Next G Alliance (ed.), Roadmap to 6G, 2022, cited from memory. ATIS, Washington. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

7.1Questions for the operational series

1. Q-01

   What do radio sites with AI compute use in energy per bit of traffic, and how does that compare with conventional radio sites?

   INI-XT09-ENE-01 · network energy per bit; first output: footprint estimates by platform.

2. Q-02

   How can AI-RAN performance and energy claims be compared on a common basis?

   INI-XT09-CMP-02 · AI-RAN claims on a common basis; first output: benchmark table.

3. Q-03

   Which candidate 6G bands did WRC-27 identify, and how do regional positions differ?

   INI-XT09-SPC-03 · spectrum outcomes; first output: band overlay.

4. Q-04

   Which chips and materials are single points of failure for radio equipment?

   INI-XT09-SUP-04 · radio supply chain; first output: dependence map.

5. Q-05

   Which operators have committed to 5G-Advanced and 6G investment, and on what timetable?

   INI-XT09-DEP-05 · deployment and readiness; first output: commitment register.

6. Q-06

   Which national spectrum and supplier rules differ most from the EU proposal?

   To be admitted in 2027; first output: rules overlay.

7. Q-07

   What workforce exists for radio, compute and network engineering?

   To be admitted in 2027; first output: scoping note.

8. Q-08

   Which readiness capabilities have been tested in real outages, and which are only planned?

   Readiness capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 connectivity portfolio. They are programme objects: no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

7.3The pathway

The connectivity edition reads national readiness chapters, the coupled sector reports on energy, semiconductors and cyber, and the global edition through one governed evidence graph. At baseline the federation is designed; the global energy and semiconductor editions are drafted. This page states what exists today and what comes next.

1. 01

   National readiness chapters

   connectivity and spectrum readiness in each national edition

   IN PREPARATION · national baselines

2. 02

   Sector couplings

   GS-02 energy · XT-06 semiconductors · XT-08 cloud and edge

   GS-02 AND XT-06 DRAFTED · sector baselines

3. 03

   Technology system model

   radio, compute, spectrum, energy, supply chain, governance

   v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with federation evidence

4. 04

   Strategic links

   SR-02 lifeline systems · SR-13 strategic technology

   PLANNED · strategic baselines

5. 05

   Universe

   annual proving environment

   CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate in 2027

6. 06

   XT-09 report

   this series

   BASELINE DRAFT · 2027 annual edition

7. 07

   Evidence and correction

   one graph, many projections

   OPEN · first correction cycle in 2027

7.4Universe 2027: evidence pack for the 6G candidate mission

1. 01

   Mandate

2. 02

   Core Build · 1 month

3. 03

   Action · 1 week

4. 04

   Evidence seal

5. 05

   Portfolio correction

6. 06

   Next mandate

Mission

ID

MSN-XT09-2027-01 · Compute-ahead-of-standards Universe mission

Role spine

Leadership sponsor · Institutional anchor · Mission lead: drawn from national pathways

Receiving actors

to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

7.6Feeds and signal register

Escalation routes

• none · keep monitoring
• research question
• project
• risk object
• annual publication
• signal report

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 33GPP (ed.), Release 21 page (timetable agreed at the June 2026 TSG#112 plenaries; first normative 6G release; Stage-3 freeze December 2028; ASN.1 freeze March 2029). 3rd Generation Partnership Project, Sophia Antipolis. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 9Dell’Oro Group (ed.), RAN market stabilised in 2025 (press release of 17 February 2026; analyst release; stable 2025 revenue; Huawei, Ericsson, Nokia, ZTE and Samsung in unchanged order; concentration at a ten-year high; 1% a year growth forecast 2025 to 2030; about a fifth of value lost 2022 to 2024). Dell’Oro Group, Redwood City. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 10NVIDIA and Nokia (eds.), NVIDIA to invest USD 1 billion in Nokia to accelerate AI-RAN innovation (joint company press release of 28 October 2025; USD 6.01 per share; ARC-Pro platform; T-Mobile field evaluations from 2026; company announcement, weak evidence). NVIDIA, Santa Clara, and Nokia, Espoo. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

8.1Radio and compute platforms

Mobile networks run on radio sites and baseband compute. Evidence is strongest for standards and subscription counts, and weakest where claims rest on company announcements.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• GS-02 Energy
• XT-06 Advanced Semiconductors and AI Compute
• XT-08 Cloud, Edge and Distributed Computing
• XT-18 Space and Orbital Infrastructure
• XT-10 Cybersecurity and Advanced Cryptography

8.2Energy and sustainability

Networks run on electricity at every site. The energy footprint of AI-RAN is not published, and the energy cost of AI itself is often overlooked.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• GS-02 Energy
• XT-06 Advanced Semiconductors and AI Compute
• XT-08 Cloud, Edge and Distributed Computing
• XT-18 Space and Orbital Infrastructure
• XT-10 Cybersecurity and Advanced Cryptography

8.3Chips, spectrum and materials

Radio equipment depends on spectrum, chips and materials. Spectrum decisions are dated; chip and mineral dependence is not bound.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• GS-02 Energy
• XT-06 Advanced Semiconductors and AI Compute
• XT-08 Cloud, Edge and Distributed Computing
• XT-18 Space and Orbital Infrastructure
• XT-10 Cybersecurity and Advanced Cryptography

8.4Economy, investment and workforce

The RAN market is stable and concentrated. Public research funding is modest, and operator investment and workforce numbers are the thin parts of the evidence.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• GS-02 Energy
• XT-06 Advanced Semiconductors and AI Compute
• XT-08 Cloud, Edge and Distributed Computing
• XT-18 Space and Orbital Infrastructure
• XT-10 Cybersecurity and Advanced Cryptography

8.5Security, spectrum and governance watch

Standards, spectrum and supplier rules set the pace of 6G. The EU proposal and the ITU process are the nearest dated steps.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• GS-02 Energy
• XT-06 Advanced Semiconductors and AI Compute
• XT-08 Cloud, Edge and Distributed Computing
• XT-18 Space and Orbital Infrastructure
• XT-10 Cybersecurity and Advanced Cryptography

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1ITU-R (ed.), Recommendation ITU-R M.2160-0, Framework and overall objectives of the future development of IMT for 2030 and beyond, November 2023 (PDF opened; capability research targets in section 4). International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 33GPP (ed.), Release 21 page (timetable agreed at the June 2026 TSG#112 plenaries; first normative 6G release; Stage-3 freeze December 2028; ASN.1 freeze March 2029). 3rd Generation Partnership Project, Sophia Antipolis. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 10NVIDIA and Nokia (eds.), NVIDIA to invest USD 1 billion in Nokia to accelerate AI-RAN innovation (joint company press release of 28 October 2025; USD 6.01 per share; ARC-Pro platform; T-Mobile field evaluations from 2026; company announcement, weak evidence). NVIDIA, Santa Clara, and Nokia, Espoo. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 43GPP (ed.), Release 20 page (5G-Advanced timeline; early 6G studies listed, including TR 22.870 and TR 38.914; work plan of March 2026). 3rd Generation Partnership Project, Sophia Antipolis. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 13O-RAN Alliance (ed.), About page (founded February 2018 by AT&T, China Mobile, Deutsche Telekom, NTT DOCOMO and Orange; German entity since August 2018; no member count or AI statement on the page). O-RAN Alliance, Alfter. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 18Polese, M., Bonati, L., D’Oro, S., Basagni, S. and Melodia, T., Understanding O-RAN: Architecture, Interfaces, Algorithms, Security, and Research Challenges, arXiv:2202.01032, submitted 2 February 2022 (abstract page opened). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 143GPP (ed.), Non-terrestrial networks overview (first normative requirements in Release 17; Release 19 core completed September 2025 and performance March 2026). 3rd Generation Partnership Project, Sophia Antipolis. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 7Ericsson (ed.), Ericsson Mobility Report, June 2026, mobile traffic forecast (company forecast; 146 EB per month excluding FWA at the end of 2025; 328 EB per month in 2031; 22 GB per active smartphone per month in 2025). Ericsson, Stockholm. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 16Sthankiya, K., Saeed, N., McSorley, G., Jaber, M. and Clegg, R.G., A Survey on AI-driven Energy Optimisation in Terrestrial Next Generation Radio Access Networks, IEEE Access 12, 157540 to 157555, 2024 (arXiv:2411.02164, submitted 4 November 2024; abstract page opened). IEEE, Piscataway. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 22UNVERIFIED, not opened: GSMA Intelligence (ed.), analysis of mobile network energy use (RAN about 73% of operator energy; energy 20% to 40% of operator operating cost), taken from search-result summaries; another figure of 87% circulates and the two are not reconciled. GSMA, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: ITU-R (ed.), Report ITU-R M.2541, technical feasibility of IMT in bands above 100 GHz, 2024, named on the ITU process page. International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: ITU (ed.), World Radiocommunication Conference 2023 final acts and Resolution 256 on agenda item 1.7 (IMT in 4400 to 4800 MHz, 7125 to 8400 MHz and 14.8 to 15.35 GHz), taken from conference slides and national briefs in search results. International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Rappaport, T.S. et al., Wireless Communications and Applications Above 100 GHz: Opportunities and Challenges for 6G and Beyond, IEEE Access 7, 78729 to 78757, 2019, cited from memory. IEEE, Piscataway. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: ABI Research (ed.), Are GPUs worth considering for 5G RAN? (analyst commentary on GPU-based RAN efficiency and vendor trial claims), taken from a search-result summary. ABI Research, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026, which returned an access error when fetched; no figure taken from it. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 9Dell’Oro Group (ed.), RAN market stabilised in 2025 (press release of 17 February 2026; analyst release; stable 2025 revenue; Huawei, Ericsson, Nokia, ZTE and Samsung in unchanged order; concentration at a ten-year high; 1% a year growth forecast 2025 to 2030; about a fifth of value lost 2022 to 2024). Dell’Oro Group, Redwood City. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 12European Commission (ed.), Smart Networks and Services Joint Undertaking policy page (at least EUR 1.8 billion for 2021 to 2027; EUR 900 million public contribution; 20 6G research projects with EUR 116 million announced March 2026). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: Omdia (ed.), projection that the AI-RAN market could exceed USD 200 billion by 2030, taken from coverage of the NVIDIA and Nokia announcement; analyst projection, weak evidence. Omdia, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: GSMA (ed.), The Mobile Economy 2026, which returned a not-found error when fetched; no figure taken from it. GSMA, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 11European Commission (ed.), Digital Networks Act policy page (proposal adopted 21 January 2026; single passport; EU satellite spectrum authorisation; copper phase-out plans; preparedness plan). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21. 2ITU-R (ed.), IMT-2030 process page of Working Party 5D (timeline; candidate proposal window February 2027 to February 2029; draft reports 5/116 and 5/119 completed in 2026 and due for SG 5 approval in December 2026). International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22. 53GPP (ed.), Introducing 3GPP (seven organisational partners: ARIB, ATIS, CCSA, ETSI, TSDSI, TTA, TTC). 3rd Generation Partnership Project, Sophia Antipolis. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Commission and NIS Cooperation Group (eds.), Cybersecurity of 5G networks, EU toolbox of risk mitigating measures, January 2020, cited from memory; the policy page returned not-found. Brussels. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: ENISA (ed.), Threat Landscape for 5G Networks, 2019, cited from memory. European Union Agency for Cybersecurity, Athens. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

A.1Methods

The global baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.

A.2Model card, 6G System Model v0

Model ID

MDL-XT09-6G · v0.1

Purpose

represent next-generation connectivity as infrastructure coupled to energy, compute chips, spectrum, materials, finance, workforce and security

Family

graph-based system of systems

Inputs

the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data

Method

expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from assessments and analogue events

Validation

none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027

Uncertainty

qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements

Domain of validity

global scale; not for asset-, site- or country-level use

Reproducibility

strength table and sources published in this edition

A.3The baseline evidence cut

Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The global baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.

Cut ID

DC-XTECH-6G-GLOBAL-2026-B0

Type

baseline documentary cut

Resolution policy

pinned · as of 30 September 2026

Sources pinned

42 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references

Model runs

none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method

Digest

computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record

Supersedes

nothing, first cut of the series

Superseded by

the 2027 6G annual cut

Lineage

1. 01

   source edition

2. 02

   pinned citation

3. 03

   finding

4. 04

   page

5. 05

   publication record

A.4Evidence age and coverage

A 2026 global edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.

A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources

Evidence cards to follow in 2027

• ITU²: text of the draft requirements and evaluation reports
• GSMA²²: primary energy report
• ITU²⁵: final texts on WRC-27 item 1.7
• 3GPP³: Release 21 description when published

A.6Publication acceptance record

Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.

A.7Status words

A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected

Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.

A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).

Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.

A.9Glossary and abbreviations

A.10Technical annex

A.1 · indicator definition: peak data rate

Construct

maximum achievable data rate per device under ideal conditions

Unit

Gbit/s

Method

research-target example set by ITU-R for specific usage scenarios

Source

Recommendation ITU-R M.2160-0 (2023)¹

Uncertainty

examples of 50, 100 and 200 Gbit/s; other values may be considered

Known limits

values depend on frequency range, bandwidth and deployment scenario and may not be reached together

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 10NVIDIA and Nokia (eds.), NVIDIA to invest USD 1 billion in Nokia to accelerate AI-RAN innovation (joint company press release of 28 October 2025; USD 6.01 per share; ARC-Pro platform; T-Mobile field evaluations from 2026; company announcement, weak evidence). NVIDIA, Santa Clara, and Nokia, Espoo. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 16Sthankiya, K., Saeed, N., McSorley, G., Jaber, M. and Clegg, R.G., A Survey on AI-driven Energy Optimisation in Terrestrial Next Generation Radio Access Networks, IEEE Access 12, 157540 to 157555, 2024 (arXiv:2411.02164, submitted 4 November 2024; abstract page opened). IEEE, Piscataway. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 22UNVERIFIED, not opened: GSMA Intelligence (ed.), analysis of mobile network energy use (RAN about 73% of operator energy; energy 20% to 40% of operator operating cost), taken from search-result summaries; another figure of 87% circulates and the two are not reconciled. GSMA, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: ITU (ed.), World Radiocommunication Conference 2023 final acts and Resolution 256 on agenda item 1.7 (IMT in 4400 to 4800 MHz, 7125 to 8400 MHz and 14.8 to 15.35 GHz), taken from conference slides and national briefs in search results. International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 33GPP (ed.), Release 21 page (timetable agreed at the June 2026 TSG#112 plenaries; first normative 6G release; Stage-3 freeze December 2028; ASN.1 freeze March 2029). 3rd Generation Partnership Project, Sophia Antipolis. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: 3GPP (ed.), TR 22.870, Study on 6G use cases and service requirements, named on the Release 20 and 21 pages as completed in Release 20. 3rd Generation Partnership Project, Sophia Antipolis. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: 3GPP (ed.), TR 38.914, 6G scenarios and requirements, named on the Release 20 and 21 pages. 3rd Generation Partnership Project, Sophia Antipolis. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 2ITU-R (ed.), IMT-2030 process page of Working Party 5D (timeline; candidate proposal window February 2027 to February 2029; draft reports 5/116 and 5/119 completed in 2026 and due for SG 5 approval in December 2026). International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: ITU-R (ed.), Report ITU-R M.2516, Future technology trends of terrestrial IMT systems towards 2030 and beyond, December 2022, named in Recommendation M.2160 and the ITU process page. International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: GSMA (ed.), The Mobile Economy 2026, which returned a not-found error when fetched; no figure taken from it. GSMA, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 9Dell’Oro Group (ed.), RAN market stabilised in 2025 (press release of 17 February 2026; analyst release; stable 2025 revenue; Huawei, Ericsson, Nokia, ZTE and Samsung in unchanged order; concentration at a ten-year high; 1% a year growth forecast 2025 to 2030; about a fifth of value lost 2022 to 2024). Dell’Oro Group, Redwood City. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 23UNVERIFIED, not opened: Omdia (ed.), RAN market estimate of about USD 35 billion for 2025, taken from a trade summary of an analyst release. Omdia, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: Omdia (ed.), projection that the AI-RAN market could exceed USD 200 billion by 2030, taken from coverage of the NVIDIA and Nokia announcement; analyst projection, weak evidence. Omdia, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: ABI Research (ed.), Are GPUs worth considering for 5G RAN? (analyst commentary on GPU-based RAN efficiency and vendor trial claims), taken from a search-result summary. ABI Research, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026, which returned an access error when fetched; no figure taken from it. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Energy and AI, 2025, which returned an access error when fetched; no figure taken from it. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: US Federal Communications Commission (ed.), framework for supplemental coverage from space, 2024, cited from memory; the page returned an access error. FCC, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 143GPP (ed.), Non-terrestrial networks overview (first normative requirements in Release 17; Release 19 core completed September 2025 and performance March 2026). 3rd Generation Partnership Project, Sophia Antipolis. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Next G Alliance (ed.), Roadmap to 6G, 2022, cited from memory. ATIS, Washington. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: IMT-2030 (6G) Promotion Group (ed.), white papers on 6G vision and candidate technologies, 2021 to 2023, cited from memory. China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, Beijing. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Hexa-X project consortium (eds.), European 6G flagship project deliverables, 2021 to 2023, cited from memory; the project site could not be reached. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: AI-RAN Alliance (ed.), organisation website, which returned only its title when fetched; no figure taken from it. AI-RAN Alliance. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23. 1ITU-R (ed.), Recommendation ITU-R M.2160-0, Framework and overall objectives of the future development of IMT for 2030 and beyond, November 2023 (PDF opened; capability research targets in section 4). International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

B.1The indicator set

B.2Global source register

The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.

Domains bound by the register

• INF
• AIC
• ENE
• FIN
• TRD
• DAT
• MIN
• CLI
• WAT
• HLT

B.3Regional reading, 6G across ten clusters

Regional plates follow with the regional editions. This page gives the regional reading of connectivity infrastructure in table form and orders no region.

B.4Cluster card: radio access network supply chain

• supply chain
• RAN
• compute
• open interfaces

Systems in view

radio equipment, baseband compute, operators, standards bodies

Defining events

concentration at a ten-year high in 2025⁹; AI-RAN announcement in October 2025¹⁰

Couplings

TRD → INF suppliers; AIC → ENE compute power

Capability evidence

open interface work reported¹³¹⁸

Gaps

supplier shares; chip and mineral inputs; compute volumes

Agenda items

Q-02 · Q-04

B.5How countries appear in the 6G edition

Countries enter the connectivity edition through the readiness chapters of their own national editions, on one card grammar. They are read against peer distributions and thresholds, never ordered.

Editions in the 2026 Baseline programme

How to read a country card

• Each system is shown against the distribution of its peers, with thresholds where they exist
• Couplings and risk objects come from the country’s own national edition
• Capability rungs record evidence, not a judgement of institutions
• Evidence age is printed, so older national data are visible as such

B.6Licences

B.7Formats and provenance

Provenance

Edition pack

The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built

Evidence cut

DC-XTECH-6G-GLOBAL-2026-B0, closed 30 September 2026

Reproducibility

sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters

Self-check

14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release

Review

five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)

Publisher of record

GCRI for the Nexus Consortium

Corrections

Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1ITU-R (ed.), Recommendation ITU-R M.2160-0, Framework and overall objectives of the future development of IMT for 2030 and beyond, November 2023 (PDF opened; capability research targets in section 4). International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 33GPP (ed.), Release 21 page (timetable agreed at the June 2026 TSG#112 plenaries; first normative 6G release; Stage-3 freeze December 2028; ASN.1 freeze March 2029). 3rd Generation Partnership Project, Sophia Antipolis. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 2ITU-R (ed.), IMT-2030 process page of Working Party 5D (timeline; candidate proposal window February 2027 to February 2029; draft reports 5/116 and 5/119 completed in 2026 and due for SG 5 approval in December 2026). International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 6Ericsson (ed.), Ericsson Mobility Report, June 2026, mobile subscriptions outlook (company report and forecast; 5G subscriptions close to 3.3 billion after Q2 2026; forecast 6.4 billion for 2031; over 90 providers with 5G standalone of about 390 with 5G; regional 5G penetration). Ericsson, Stockholm. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 7Ericsson (ed.), Ericsson Mobility Report, June 2026, mobile traffic forecast (company forecast; 146 EB per month excluding FWA at the end of 2025; 328 EB per month in 2031; 22 GB per active smartphone per month in 2025). Ericsson, Stockholm. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 9Dell’Oro Group (ed.), RAN market stabilised in 2025 (press release of 17 February 2026; analyst release; stable 2025 revenue; Huawei, Ericsson, Nokia, ZTE and Samsung in unchanged order; concentration at a ten-year high; 1% a year growth forecast 2025 to 2030; about a fifth of value lost 2022 to 2024). Dell’Oro Group, Redwood City. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 12European Commission (ed.), Smart Networks and Services Joint Undertaking policy page (at least EUR 1.8 billion for 2021 to 2027; EUR 900 million public contribution; 20 6G research projects with EUR 116 million announced March 2026). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 8ITU (ed.), Facts and Figures 2025 (almost three quarters of the world online; 2.2 billion offline; 5G coverage above half of the population; page read, no absolute online count stated). International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 43GPP (ed.), Release 20 page (5G-Advanced timeline; early 6G studies listed, including TR 22.870 and TR 38.914; work plan of March 2026). 3rd Generation Partnership Project, Sophia Antipolis. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 10NVIDIA and Nokia (eds.), NVIDIA to invest USD 1 billion in Nokia to accelerate AI-RAN innovation (joint company press release of 28 October 2025; USD 6.01 per share; ARC-Pro platform; T-Mobile field evaluations from 2026; company announcement, weak evidence). NVIDIA, Santa Clara, and Nokia, Espoo. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 11European Commission (ed.), Digital Networks Act policy page (proposal adopted 21 January 2026; single passport; EU satellite spectrum authorisation; copper phase-out plans; preparedness plan). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 16Sthankiya, K., Saeed, N., McSorley, G., Jaber, M. and Clegg, R.G., A Survey on AI-driven Energy Optimisation in Terrestrial Next Generation Radio Access Networks, IEEE Access 12, 157540 to 157555, 2024 (arXiv:2411.02164, submitted 4 November 2024; abstract page opened). IEEE, Piscataway. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 22UNVERIFIED, not opened: GSMA Intelligence (ed.), analysis of mobile network energy use (RAN about 73% of operator energy; energy 20% to 40% of operator operating cost), taken from search-result summaries; another figure of 87% circulates and the two are not reconciled. GSMA, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 13O-RAN Alliance (ed.), About page (founded February 2018 by AT&T, China Mobile, Deutsche Telekom, NTT DOCOMO and Orange; German entity since August 2018; no member count or AI statement on the page). O-RAN Alliance, Alfter. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 18Polese, M., Bonati, L., D’Oro, S., Basagni, S. and Melodia, T., Understanding O-RAN: Architecture, Interfaces, Algorithms, Security, and Research Challenges, arXiv:2202.01032, submitted 2 February 2022 (abstract page opened). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

C.142 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

1. 1ITU-R (ed.), Recommendation ITU-R M.2160-0, Framework and overall objectives of the future development of IMT for 2030 and beyond, November 2023 (PDF opened; capability research targets in section 4). International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
2. 2ITU-R (ed.), IMT-2030 process page of Working Party 5D (timeline; candidate proposal window February 2027 to February 2029; draft reports 5/116 and 5/119 completed in 2026 and due for SG 5 approval in December 2026). International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
3. 33GPP (ed.), Release 21 page (timetable agreed at the June 2026 TSG#112 plenaries; first normative 6G release; Stage-3 freeze December 2028; ASN.1 freeze March 2029). 3rd Generation Partnership Project, Sophia Antipolis. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
4. 43GPP (ed.), Release 20 page (5G-Advanced timeline; early 6G studies listed, including TR 22.870 and TR 38.914; work plan of March 2026). 3rd Generation Partnership Project, Sophia Antipolis. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
5. 53GPP (ed.), Introducing 3GPP (seven organisational partners: ARIB, ATIS, CCSA, ETSI, TSDSI, TTA, TTC). 3rd Generation Partnership Project, Sophia Antipolis. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
6. 6Ericsson (ed.), Ericsson Mobility Report, June 2026, mobile subscriptions outlook (company report and forecast; 5G subscriptions close to 3.3 billion after Q2 2026; forecast 6.4 billion for 2031; over 90 providers with 5G standalone of about 390 with 5G; regional 5G penetration). Ericsson, Stockholm. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
7. 7Ericsson (ed.), Ericsson Mobility Report, June 2026, mobile traffic forecast (company forecast; 146 EB per month excluding FWA at the end of 2025; 328 EB per month in 2031; 22 GB per active smartphone per month in 2025). Ericsson, Stockholm. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
8. 8ITU (ed.), Facts and Figures 2025 (almost three quarters of the world online; 2.2 billion offline; 5G coverage above half of the population; page read, no absolute online count stated). International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
9. 9Dell’Oro Group (ed.), RAN market stabilised in 2025 (press release of 17 February 2026; analyst release; stable 2025 revenue; Huawei, Ericsson, Nokia, ZTE and Samsung in unchanged order; concentration at a ten-year high; 1% a year growth forecast 2025 to 2030; about a fifth of value lost 2022 to 2024). Dell’Oro Group, Redwood City. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
10. 10NVIDIA and Nokia (eds.), NVIDIA to invest USD 1 billion in Nokia to accelerate AI-RAN innovation (joint company press release of 28 October 2025; USD 6.01 per share; ARC-Pro platform; T-Mobile field evaluations from 2026; company announcement, weak evidence). NVIDIA, Santa Clara, and Nokia, Espoo. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
11. 11European Commission (ed.), Digital Networks Act policy page (proposal adopted 21 January 2026; single passport; EU satellite spectrum authorisation; copper phase-out plans; preparedness plan). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
12. 12European Commission (ed.), Smart Networks and Services Joint Undertaking policy page (at least EUR 1.8 billion for 2021 to 2027; EUR 900 million public contribution; 20 6G research projects with EUR 116 million announced March 2026). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
13. 13O-RAN Alliance (ed.), About page (founded February 2018 by AT&T, China Mobile, Deutsche Telekom, NTT DOCOMO and Orange; German entity since August 2018; no member count or AI statement on the page). O-RAN Alliance, Alfter. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
14. 143GPP (ed.), Non-terrestrial networks overview (first normative requirements in Release 17; Release 19 core completed September 2025 and performance March 2026). 3rd Generation Partnership Project, Sophia Antipolis. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
15. 15ETSI (ed.), Industry Specification Group on Integrated Sensing and Communications, technology page (pre-standards coordination; reports ETSI GR ISC 003 announced 26 February 2026 and ETSI GR ISC 004 announced 2 March 2026). European Telecommunications Standards Institute, Sophia Antipolis. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
16. 16Sthankiya, K., Saeed, N., McSorley, G., Jaber, M. and Clegg, R.G., A Survey on AI-driven Energy Optimisation in Terrestrial Next Generation Radio Access Networks, IEEE Access 12, 157540 to 157555, 2024 (arXiv:2411.02164, submitted 4 November 2024; abstract page opened). IEEE, Piscataway. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
17. 17Saad, W., Bennis, M. and Chen, M., A Vision of 6G Wireless Systems: Applications, Trends, Technologies, and Open Research Problems, IEEE Network, 2019 (arXiv:1902.10265, submitted 26 February 2019; abstract page opened). IEEE, Piscataway. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
18. 18Polese, M., Bonati, L., D’Oro, S., Basagni, S. and Melodia, T., Understanding O-RAN: Architecture, Interfaces, Algorithms, Security, and Research Challenges, arXiv:2202.01032, submitted 2 February 2022 (abstract page opened). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
19. 19Liu, F., Cui, Y., Masouros, C., Xu, J., Han, T.X., Eldar, Y.C. and Buzzi, S., Integrated Sensing and Communications: Towards Dual-functional Wireless Networks for 6G and Beyond, arXiv:2108.07165, submitted 16 August 2021 (abstract page opened). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
20. 20Liu, A. et al., A Survey on Fundamental Limits of Integrated Sensing and Communication, arXiv:2104.09954, submitted 16 April 2021 (abstract page opened). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
21. 21Zhang, D. et al., Integrated Sensing and Communications Over the Years: An Evolution Perspective, arXiv:2504.06830, submitted 9 April 2025, version 4 of 19 January 2026 (abstract page opened). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
22. 22UNVERIFIED, not opened: GSMA Intelligence (ed.), analysis of mobile network energy use (RAN about 73% of operator energy; energy 20% to 40% of operator operating cost), taken from search-result summaries; another figure of 87% circulates and the two are not reconciled. GSMA, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 8
23. 23UNVERIFIED, not opened: Omdia (ed.), RAN market estimate of about USD 35 billion for 2025, taken from a trade summary of an analyst release. Omdia, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
24. 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: Omdia (ed.), projection that the AI-RAN market could exceed USD 200 billion by 2030, taken from coverage of the NVIDIA and Nokia announcement; analyst projection, weak evidence. Omdia, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
25. 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: ITU (ed.), World Radiocommunication Conference 2023 final acts and Resolution 256 on agenda item 1.7 (IMT in 4400 to 4800 MHz, 7125 to 8400 MHz and 14.8 to 15.35 GHz), taken from conference slides and national briefs in search results. International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
26. 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: ITU-R (ed.), Report ITU-R M.2516, Future technology trends of terrestrial IMT systems towards 2030 and beyond, December 2022, named in Recommendation M.2160 and the ITU process page. International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
27. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: ITU-R (ed.), Report ITU-R M.2541, technical feasibility of IMT in bands above 100 GHz, 2024, named on the ITU process page. International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
28. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: 3GPP (ed.), TR 22.870, Study on 6G use cases and service requirements, named on the Release 20 and 21 pages as completed in Release 20. 3rd Generation Partnership Project, Sophia Antipolis. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
29. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: 3GPP (ed.), TR 38.914, 6G scenarios and requirements, named on the Release 20 and 21 pages. 3rd Generation Partnership Project, Sophia Antipolis. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
30. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: AI-RAN Alliance (ed.), organisation website, which returned only its title when fetched; no figure taken from it. AI-RAN Alliance. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
31. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: ABI Research (ed.), Are GPUs worth considering for 5G RAN? (analyst commentary on GPU-based RAN efficiency and vendor trial claims), taken from a search-result summary. ABI Research, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
32. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: GSMA (ed.), The Mobile Economy 2026, which returned a not-found error when fetched; no figure taken from it. GSMA, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
33. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Energy and AI, 2025, which returned an access error when fetched; no figure taken from it. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.
34. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026, which returned an access error when fetched; no figure taken from it. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 8
35. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Commission and NIS Cooperation Group (eds.), Cybersecurity of 5G networks, EU toolbox of risk mitigating measures, January 2020, cited from memory; the policy page returned not-found. Brussels. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
36. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: US Federal Communications Commission (ed.), framework for supplemental coverage from space, 2024, cited from memory; the page returned an access error. FCC, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.
37. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: US National Telecommunications and Information Administration (ed.), National Spectrum Strategy, November 2023, cited from memory; the page fetched did not carry it. NTIA, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
38. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Next G Alliance (ed.), Roadmap to 6G, 2022, cited from memory. ATIS, Washington. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
39. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: IMT-2030 (6G) Promotion Group (ed.), white papers on 6G vision and candidate technologies, 2021 to 2023, cited from memory. China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, Beijing. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
40. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Hexa-X project consortium (eds.), European 6G flagship project deliverables, 2021 to 2023, cited from memory; the project site could not be reached. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.
41. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Rappaport, T.S. et al., Wireless Communications and Applications Above 100 GHz: Opportunities and Challenges for 6G and Beyond, IEEE Access 7, 78729 to 78757, 2019, cited from memory. IEEE, Piscataway. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
42. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: ENISA (ed.), Threat Landscape for 5G Networks, 2019, cited from memory. European Union Agency for Cybersecurity, Athens. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8

C.2Publication record

Colophon

Format

A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF

Typefaces

Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)

Design standard

Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII

Accessibility

tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure

Production

Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version