Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

References and record

Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

14 min read0 figures1 table0 notesNR-XTECH-6G-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Connectivity is radio, compute and electricity
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Compute-heavy radio networks built ahead of Release 21
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
    1. C.1 42 sources
    2. C.2 Publication record
    3. C.3 Corrections log
    4. C.4 Open record
    5. C.5 Where this edition sits among the six pillars
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

C.142 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

  1. 1ITU-R (ed.), Recommendation ITU-R M.2160-0, Framework and overall objectives of the future development of IMT for 2030 and beyond, November 2023 (PDF opened; capability research targets in section 4). International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  2. 2ITU-R (ed.), IMT-2030 process page of Working Party 5D (timeline; candidate proposal window February 2027 to February 2029; draft reports 5/116 and 5/119 completed in 2026 and due for SG 5 approval in December 2026). International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  3. 33GPP (ed.), Release 21 page (timetable agreed at the June 2026 TSG#112 plenaries; first normative 6G release; Stage-3 freeze December 2028; ASN.1 freeze March 2029). 3rd Generation Partnership Project, Sophia Antipolis. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  4. 43GPP (ed.), Release 20 page (5G-Advanced timeline; early 6G studies listed, including TR 22.870 and TR 38.914; work plan of March 2026). 3rd Generation Partnership Project, Sophia Antipolis. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  5. 53GPP (ed.), Introducing 3GPP (seven organisational partners: ARIB, ATIS, CCSA, ETSI, TSDSI, TTA, TTC). 3rd Generation Partnership Project, Sophia Antipolis. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
  6. 6Ericsson (ed.), Ericsson Mobility Report, June 2026, mobile subscriptions outlook (company report and forecast; 5G subscriptions close to 3.3 billion after Q2 2026; forecast 6.4 billion for 2031; over 90 providers with 5G standalone of about 390 with 5G; regional 5G penetration). Ericsson, Stockholm. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  7. 7Ericsson (ed.), Ericsson Mobility Report, June 2026, mobile traffic forecast (company forecast; 146 EB per month excluding FWA at the end of 2025; 328 EB per month in 2031; 22 GB per active smartphone per month in 2025). Ericsson, Stockholm. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  8. 8ITU (ed.), Facts and Figures 2025 (almost three quarters of the world online; 2.2 billion offline; 5G coverage above half of the population; page read, no absolute online count stated). International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
  9. 9Dell’Oro Group (ed.), RAN market stabilised in 2025 (press release of 17 February 2026; analyst release; stable 2025 revenue; Huawei, Ericsson, Nokia, ZTE and Samsung in unchanged order; concentration at a ten-year high; 1% a year growth forecast 2025 to 2030; about a fifth of value lost 2022 to 2024). Dell’Oro Group, Redwood City. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  10. 10NVIDIA and Nokia (eds.), NVIDIA to invest USD 1 billion in Nokia to accelerate AI-RAN innovation (joint company press release of 28 October 2025; USD 6.01 per share; ARC-Pro platform; T-Mobile field evaluations from 2026; company announcement, weak evidence). NVIDIA, Santa Clara, and Nokia, Espoo. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  11. 11European Commission (ed.), Digital Networks Act policy page (proposal adopted 21 January 2026; single passport; EU satellite spectrum authorisation; copper phase-out plans; preparedness plan). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  12. 12European Commission (ed.), Smart Networks and Services Joint Undertaking policy page (at least EUR 1.8 billion for 2021 to 2027; EUR 900 million public contribution; 20 6G research projects with EUR 116 million announced March 2026). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  13. 13O-RAN Alliance (ed.), About page (founded February 2018 by AT&T, China Mobile, Deutsche Telekom, NTT DOCOMO and Orange; German entity since August 2018; no member count or AI statement on the page). O-RAN Alliance, Alfter. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  14. 143GPP (ed.), Non-terrestrial networks overview (first normative requirements in Release 17; Release 19 core completed September 2025 and performance March 2026). 3rd Generation Partnership Project, Sophia Antipolis. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  15. 15ETSI (ed.), Industry Specification Group on Integrated Sensing and Communications, technology page (pre-standards coordination; reports ETSI GR ISC 003 announced 26 February 2026 and ETSI GR ISC 004 announced 2 March 2026). European Telecommunications Standards Institute, Sophia Antipolis. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  16. 16Sthankiya, K., Saeed, N., McSorley, G., Jaber, M. and Clegg, R.G., A Survey on AI-driven Energy Optimisation in Terrestrial Next Generation Radio Access Networks, IEEE Access 12, 157540 to 157555, 2024 (arXiv:2411.02164, submitted 4 November 2024; abstract page opened). IEEE, Piscataway. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  17. 17Saad, W., Bennis, M. and Chen, M., A Vision of 6G Wireless Systems: Applications, Trends, Technologies, and Open Research Problems, IEEE Network, 2019 (arXiv:1902.10265, submitted 26 February 2019; abstract page opened). IEEE, Piscataway. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  18. 18Polese, M., Bonati, L., D’Oro, S., Basagni, S. and Melodia, T., Understanding O-RAN: Architecture, Interfaces, Algorithms, Security, and Research Challenges, arXiv:2202.01032, submitted 2 February 2022 (abstract page opened). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  19. 19Liu, F., Cui, Y., Masouros, C., Xu, J., Han, T.X., Eldar, Y.C. and Buzzi, S., Integrated Sensing and Communications: Towards Dual-functional Wireless Networks for 6G and Beyond, arXiv:2108.07165, submitted 16 August 2021 (abstract page opened). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  20. 20Liu, A. et al., A Survey on Fundamental Limits of Integrated Sensing and Communication, arXiv:2104.09954, submitted 16 April 2021 (abstract page opened). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  21. 21Zhang, D. et al., Integrated Sensing and Communications Over the Years: An Evolution Perspective, arXiv:2504.06830, submitted 9 April 2025, version 4 of 19 January 2026 (abstract page opened). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
  22. 22UNVERIFIED, not opened: GSMA Intelligence (ed.), analysis of mobile network energy use (RAN about 73% of operator energy; energy 20% to 40% of operator operating cost), taken from search-result summaries; another figure of 87% circulates and the two are not reconciled. GSMA, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 8
  23. 23UNVERIFIED, not opened: Omdia (ed.), RAN market estimate of about USD 35 billion for 2025, taken from a trade summary of an analyst release. Omdia, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  24. 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: Omdia (ed.), projection that the AI-RAN market could exceed USD 200 billion by 2030, taken from coverage of the NVIDIA and Nokia announcement; analyst projection, weak evidence. Omdia, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  25. 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: ITU (ed.), World Radiocommunication Conference 2023 final acts and Resolution 256 on agenda item 1.7 (IMT in 4400 to 4800 MHz, 7125 to 8400 MHz and 14.8 to 15.35 GHz), taken from conference slides and national briefs in search results. International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  26. 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: ITU-R (ed.), Report ITU-R M.2516, Future technology trends of terrestrial IMT systems towards 2030 and beyond, December 2022, named in Recommendation M.2160 and the ITU process page. International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  27. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: ITU-R (ed.), Report ITU-R M.2541, technical feasibility of IMT in bands above 100 GHz, 2024, named on the ITU process page. International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  28. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: 3GPP (ed.), TR 22.870, Study on 6G use cases and service requirements, named on the Release 20 and 21 pages as completed in Release 20. 3rd Generation Partnership Project, Sophia Antipolis. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  29. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: 3GPP (ed.), TR 38.914, 6G scenarios and requirements, named on the Release 20 and 21 pages. 3rd Generation Partnership Project, Sophia Antipolis. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  30. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: AI-RAN Alliance (ed.), organisation website, which returned only its title when fetched; no figure taken from it. AI-RAN Alliance. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
  31. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: ABI Research (ed.), Are GPUs worth considering for 5G RAN? (analyst commentary on GPU-based RAN efficiency and vendor trial claims), taken from a search-result summary. ABI Research, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  32. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: GSMA (ed.), The Mobile Economy 2026, which returned a not-found error when fetched; no figure taken from it. GSMA, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
  33. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Energy and AI, 2025, which returned an access error when fetched; no figure taken from it. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.
  34. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026, which returned an access error when fetched; no figure taken from it. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 8
  35. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Commission and NIS Cooperation Group (eds.), Cybersecurity of 5G networks, EU toolbox of risk mitigating measures, January 2020, cited from memory; the policy page returned not-found. Brussels. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  36. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: US Federal Communications Commission (ed.), framework for supplemental coverage from space, 2024, cited from memory; the page returned an access error. FCC, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.
  37. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: US National Telecommunications and Information Administration (ed.), National Spectrum Strategy, November 2023, cited from memory; the page fetched did not carry it. NTIA, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  38. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Next G Alliance (ed.), Roadmap to 6G, 2022, cited from memory. ATIS, Washington. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  39. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: IMT-2030 (6G) Promotion Group (ed.), white papers on 6G vision and candidate technologies, 2021 to 2023, cited from memory. China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, Beijing. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  40. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Hexa-X project consortium (eds.), European 6G flagship project deliverables, 2021 to 2023, cited from memory; the project site could not be reached. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.
  41. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Rappaport, T.S. et al., Wireless Communications and Applications Above 100 GHz: Opportunities and Challenges for 6G and Beyond, IEEE Access 7, 78729 to 78757, 2019, cited from memory. IEEE, Piscataway. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  42. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: ENISA (ed.), Threat Landscape for 5G Networks, 2019, cited from memory. European Union Agency for Cybersecurity, Athens. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8

C.2Publication record

Publication

Title
Exponential Technology Report 2026: 6G, AI-RAN and Next-Generation Connectivity, Baseline Edition
Series
Reports · Exponential Technology Series XT-09
Edition
Baseline Edition 2026 · inaugural annual
Version
v1.0.0 · draft for stewardship review
Publication ID
NR-XTECH-6G-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Evidence close
30 September 2026
Publication date
October 2026
DOI
concept and version DOI at deposit

Publisher

Publisher of record
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium
Place
Toronto
Editor
Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor
Stewards
GCRI · technical truth · the Global Risks Forum (GRF) · public meaning · the Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · capital meaning
Licence
text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source
Copyright
© 2026 GCRI · Nexus Consortium
Language
English (en-GB) source edition
Correspondence
Registry correction pathway · editorial office

Colophon

Format
A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF
Typefaces
Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)
Design standard
Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII
Accessibility
tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure
Production
Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version

Table C.1Release path for this version
StepWhat happensWhen
Drafteditorial self-check complete at evidence closeOctober 2026
Steward reviewfive passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N)Q4 2026
Approvalpublication authority approves the exact digestbefore release
Depositconcept and version DOI minted; registry pointer setat release
Successionthe 2027 6G edition reports changes against this baseline2027
Current version
v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review
Previous edition
none, first edition of the series
Next edition
NR-XTECH-6G-GLOBAL-2027-v1.0.0
Latest version
resolve the concept DOI or the registry record
Correction route
Registry correction pathway
Notice types
erratum · addendum · supersession · withdrawal

C.3Corrections log

0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition’s current version.

EditionVersionDateStateChangeNotice
XT-09NR-XTECH-6G-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026DraftBaseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,None

Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.

C.4Open record

This edition’s open record

Publication ID
NR-XTECH-6G-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Desk identifier and series alias
NR-XTC-XT-09-2026-BL
Collection
None
DOI
Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata
Versions
Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest
Bundle
RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest
Licence
CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0

Credit and identity

ORCID
Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record
ROR
Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone
CRediT
Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing
Account
None needed to contribute; never a password

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C.5Where this edition sits among the six pillars

Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.

  1. F03 Sealed observations and indicator series Foundry Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
  2. F04 After-action and scenario findings for Universe After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
  3. F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter Foundry National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
  4. Applied in editions Standards Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
  5. XT-09 edition Reports 6G, AI-RAN and Next-Generation Connectivity 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.
  6. F06 Method and correction findings as change Standards Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
  7. F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year Universe Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
  8. Taught in the open Academy Risk Academy: taught in the open.

What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; XT-09 is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.

HandoffBetweenWhat crosses, and when
F03Foundry to ReportsSealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04Universe to ReportsAfter-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05Foundry to ReportsNational Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
RingNexus Standards to ReportsNexus Standards: applied in editions.
F06Reports to Nexus StandardsMethod and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12Reports to UniverseQ4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
RingReports to Risk AcademyRisk Academy: taught in the open.

Cite this annex

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Annex C: References and record. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: 6G, AI-RAN and Next-Generation Connectivity (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-6G-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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