Reports · GCRI · Country profile
Senegal 2026
سنگال
Senegal (République du Sénégal) enters 2027 with 18.1 million residents at the 2023 census, 54.7% of them urban and 39.1% under 15. The economy grew 6.7% in 2025 as oil production began, while non-hydrocarbon growth was 2.2% and the IMF describes fiscal and debt vulnerabilities as elevated.
- یافته‌ها
- 12
- each with its status and source
- Sectors with findings
- 5 of 6
- Infrastructure not assessed
- Risk objects
- 4
- order carries no rank
- منابع
- 55
- Evidence close 30 September 2026
01 · Readings
Senegal in six readings.
Six readings that frame the Senegal baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.
02 · Sectors
Six sectors, one hexagon.
Water first, then Energy, Infrastructure, Food, Health and Biodiversity. Each count is the findings of this edition in that sector: coverage of the evidence, never a score. Infrastructure is not assessed: the edition holds no Infrastructure finding and its coupling matrix does not assess it.
- WATآب2 findings
27.2% People using safely managed drinking water, 2024. □گزارش‌شده
Basic drinking water 88.0%, safely managed 27.2%; basic sanitation 62.5%.
- ENEانرژی2 findings
82.9% Access to electricity, 2024. □گزارش‌شده
Access 82.9%; 85% of generation non-renewable; oil and gas now produced offshore.
- INFزیرساختnot assessed
Drainage, roads and pipes cut by floods; grid losses of 16.5%.
- FOOغذا1 finding
0.84 million People in Crisis or worse, projected June to August 2026, 2026. □گزارش‌شده
Cereal harvest above average in 2024; 836,786 people projected in Crisis or worse.
- HLTسلامت1 finding
358 cases Confirmed Rift Valley fever cases, 20 Sep to 30 Oct, 2025. □گزارش‌شده
Rift Valley fever outbreak with 28 deaths; life expectancy 68.9 years.
- BIOتنوع زیستی1 finding
45.0 % of land Forest area, 2024. □گزارش‌شده
Forest 45.0% of land; protected land 27.5%, protected waters 3.1%.
Outside the six sectors: Climate forcing 3, Finance 1, Systemic 1.
03 · Hazard exposure
The hazards this edition reads.
The edition’s own risk objects, in its order, each read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and horizon. The hexagon marks the sectors the cascade reaches; the domain beside each is an editorial reading of its hazard words.
RSK-SEN-CLI-001
Heavy-rain flooding in a dense urban area
□گزارش‌شدهEQL 3
- محرک
- intense rainfall over low-lying, built-up land
- مواجهه
- Touba: 70,000 people exposed; Lac Rose area: 20,000 vulnerable [24]
- آسیب‌پذیری
- schools, roads and homes flooded in 2025; 296 schools affected [25]
- ظرفیت
- national flood committee since 2019; regional emergency plans [25]
- آبشار
- CLI → INF, WAT, HLT
- Horizon
- annual
RSK-SEN-HLT-002
Rift Valley fever in the river valley
□گزارش‌شدهEQL 3
- محرک
- mosquito-borne spread among livestock and people
- مواجهه
- Saint-Louis region held 78% of cases [22]
- آسیب‌پذیری
- 358 confirmed cases and 28 deaths by 30 Oct 2025 [22]
- ظرفیت
- joint WHO, FAO and WOAH assessment; national response not bound
- آبشار
- HLT → FOO, FIN
- Horizon
- 1–5 years
No domain reading
RSK-SEN-ENE-003
Fuel and supply exposure of the power system
□گزارش‌شدهEQL 3
- محرک
- fuel-oil dependence and import exposure
- مواجهه
- households, water works, clinics, industry
- آبشار
- ENE → WAT, HLT, FIN
- Horizon
- 1–5 years
No domain reading
RSK-SEN-CLI-004
Coastal erosion and sea-level rise
□گزارش‌شدهEQL 3
- محرک
- بالا آمدن سطح دریا and storm waves on a low coast
- مواجهه
- half of people and two-thirds of GDP in coastal zones [19]
- آسیب‌پذیری
- 75% of coastline at risk; losses 3.3% of GDP [19]
- ظرفیت
- coastal resilience projects exist; scope not bound [52]
- آبشار
- CLI → INF, WAT, FOO
- Horizon
- 5–30 years
Scenario · SCN-SEN-FLD-01
Urban flood with a water, power and clinic interruption
Under this scenario, results describe a conditional season under stated assumptions. It is not a forecast, and no intervention described here has been carried out.
2 of 12 findings name a hazard in their text. Show them
- 1CLI → INFheavy rain exceeds drainage; roads and schools are flooded
- 2INF → ENEflooded substations and access roads interrupt supply
- 3ENE → WATpumping and treatment lose power; unsafe sources are used
- 4WAT → HLTunsafe water and standing water raise exposure to disease
- 5INF → FOOcut roads delay food distribution to affected districts
- 6ENE → FINrepair and relief costs fall on the budget
04 · Couplings
How the sectors carry risk into each other.
The Senegal matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core سامانه‌ها. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.
| از | WAT | ENE | FOO | HLT | BIO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAT | · | Strong | Strong | متوسط | Strong |
| ENE | متوسط | · | Strong | Strong | متوسط |
| FOO | متوسط | Weak | · | Strong | Strong |
| HLT | Weak | Weak | متوسط | · | Weak |
| BIO | Strong | متوسط | Strong | متوسط | · |
Water: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Energy: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Food: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Health: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Biodiversity: 4 couplings out, 4 in. Infrastructure is not in the coupling matrix: none of the edition matrices types it, so it carries no value.
Cascade paths, in the edition’s order
- CLI → INF → WATheavy rain overwhelms drainage and floods homes, roads and water points□گزارش‌شده
- CLI → HLTriver and rain conditions favour outbreaks of vector-borne disease in the valley▲Inferred
- ENE → FINoil and gas output lifts growth, while fuel imports and subsidies weigh on the budget□گزارش‌شده
- CLI → FOOrain deficits and floods cut crops in parts of the north and east□گزارش‌شده
- ENE → WAT → HLTa power cut stops pumping and treatment, and clinics lose supply▲Inferred
05 · Findings
Every finding of Senegal.
Search, filter by sector, system or status, and sort. The address bar keeps the view, so a filtered list can be shared. Every row opens the finding at its source.
All 12 findings
| ID | ویراست | Sector or system | وضعیت | Statement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLI-001 | سنگال | CLI Climate forcing | □ گزارش‌شده | Greenhouse-gas emissions were about 31.7 Mt CO₂e in 2024 excluding land use: carbon dioxide 14.2 Mt, methane 12.3 Mt and nitrous oxide 3.7 Mt; agriculture supplied 9.4 Mt of the methane. Land use was a net carbon-dioxide sink of 13 Mt in 2023. |
| CLI-002 | سنگال | CLI Climate forcing | □ گزارش‌شده | The 2020 contribution targets a 2030 cut of 7% unconditional and 29.5% conditional below business as usual. A third contribution was validated nationally on 5 April 2026 with a reported range of 13 to 17%; its submission was not confirmed at evidence close. |
| ENE-003 | سنگال | ENE انرژی | □ گزارش‌شده | Access to electricity was 82.9% in 2024, up from 67.9% in 2022, with 95.7% in urban and 67.1% in rural areas; transmission and distribution losses were 16.5% of output. |
| ENE-004 | سنگال | ENE انرژی | □ گزارش‌شده | Installed capacity was 1,901 MW in 2024, of which 481 MW was renewable; 85% of 2023 generation was non-renewable, and imports were 70% of primary energy supply in 2022. Sangomar produced 36.1 million barrels of oil in 2025 and Grand Tortue Ahmeyim began LNG production in February 2025. |
| WAT-005 | سنگال | WAT آب | □ گزارش‌شده | In 2024, 88.0% of people used at least basic drinking water but 27.2% used safely managed water, 13.2% in rural areas; 62.5% used basic sanitation and 30.1% safely managed sanitation. |
| WAT-006 | سنگال | WAT آب | □ گزارش‌شده | Freshwater withdrawals were 11.9% of internal resources in 2022 and renewable internal water was 1,462 m³ per person; the World Bank projects withdrawals to grow 30% to 60% by 2035, with 81% for irrigation. |
| FOO-007 | سنگال | FOO غذا | □ گزارش‌شده | The 2024 cereal harvest was forecast at 3.8 million tonnes, 8% above the five-year average. The March 2026 Cadre Harmonisé projected 836,786 people in Crisis or worse for June to August 2026, and 27.7% of people faced moderate or severe ناامنی غذایی in 2024. |
| HLT-008 | سنگال | HLT سلامت | □ گزارش‌شده | WHO counted 358 confirmed human cases and 28 deaths of Rift Valley fever in Senegal between 20 September and 30 October 2025, 78% of them in the Saint-Louis region; life expectancy at birth was 68.9 years in 2024. |
| BIO-009 | سنگال | BIO تنوع زیستی | □ گزارش‌شده | Forest covered 45.0% of land in 2024, down from 45.4% in 2019; 27.5% of land and 3.1% of territorial waters were protected in 2025. Mangrove extent and ecosystem threat status are not bound. |
| FIN-010 | سنگال | FIN مالی | □ گزارش‌شده | Real GDP grew 6.7% in 2025 while non-hydrocarbon growth was 2.2%; the fiscal deficit narrowed from 13.4% to 6.4% of GDP, and the IMF DataMapper series puts gross debt at 127.7% of GDP. |
| CLI-011 | سنگال | CLI Climate forcing | □ گزارش‌شده | The 2025 rainy season killed 20 people, affected 8,336 and destroyed 946 ha of farmland. The World Bank estimates a drought year costs US$500 million, annual flood damage about US$100 million, and coastal erosion 3.3% of GDP. |
| SYS-012 | سنگال | SYS Systemic | ◎ Expert input | The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a heavy-rain flood in a dense urban area that interrupts water, power and clinics at the same time. |
06 · Editions and calendar
The desks’ editions for Senegal.
| Desk | ویراست | وضعیت | شناسه |
|---|---|---|---|
| GCRI Systems Evidence | Senegal 2026 | Drafted, in stewardship review | NR-COUNTRY-SEN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 |
| GRF Public Deliberation | Public Deliberation: Senegal 2026 | در دست آماده‌سازی | |
| GRA Capital Readiness | Capital Readiness: Senegal 2026 | در دست آماده‌سازی | |
| Standards Progress | No edition in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Academy Capability | No edition in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Index Measurement | Measurement: Senegal 2026 | در دست آماده‌سازی |
Calendar · 2026 Baseline
- 01Call opensset by the editor
- 02Contribution closeset by the editor
- 03بستن شواهد30 September 2026
- 04Desk review and releaseset by the editor
- 05Collection compilationset by the editor
- 06Collection releaseset by the editor
- 07اصلاحیه‌هاafter release, as needed
Evidence cut NQ-SEN-2026-Q0-1. Next cycles: Q1 2027, Q2 2027, Q3 2027, Q4 2027; their dates are set by the editor.
07 · Take part
Read it, improve it, cite it.
- بخوانیدThe edition, chapter by chapter, with every source.
- مشارکتSend evidence, a source or a method before the next cut.
- داوریJoin the stewardship review of this edition.
- CiteAPA, Chicago, BibTeX, RIS and the house style, as a draft.
- PDFThe signed PDF is issued at release; print the complete edition today.
سیاههٔ اصلاحات
| نسخه | Date | وضعیت | تغییر | Notice |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NR-COUNTRY-SEN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 | October 2026 | DRAFT | Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition, | هیچ |
Data gaps3What the repository does not hold yet, and the source proposed for each
| شکاف | Shown here as | Proposed source |
|---|---|---|
| Exposure values per hazard (people, assets, hectares) | the edition’s own risk objects, without values | the Index country profile once the Index releases values, risksindex.com/sen/ |
| The NHS-1 hazard types and their assignment to this edition’s risk objects | an editorial reading of the hazard words | the NHS-1 type assignment through the Registry |
| Infrastructure in the coupling matrix | Infrastructure marked not assessed | an Infrastructure row and column in the edition matrix at the next cut |
Send evidence or a correction on Senegal.
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