Senegal Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026

S.1Abstract

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the Senegal baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

1. About 31.7 Mt CO₂e in 2024 excluding land use; agricultural methane is 9.4 Mt.⁷

   Where do emissions stand?Reported

2. A 2030 cut of 7% to 29.5% below business as usual; a third contribution validated in April 2026, not confirmed as submitted.¹⁶¹⁷

   What has Senegal committed to?Reported

3. Access reached 82.9%, rural access is 67.1%, and 85% of 2023 generation was non-renewable.⁶¹⁴

   How secure is electricity?Reported

4. Basic drinking water reaches 88.0% but safely managed water only 27.2%.⁵

   How sound are water services?Reported

5. Harvests were above average in 2024, but 836,786 people are projected in Crisis or worse in mid-2026.²⁰²¹

   Is food supply secure?Reported

6. 20 deaths and 8,336 people affected in 2025; flood damage of about US$100 million a year on the World Bank estimate.¹⁹²⁴

   What do floods cost?Reported

7. Forest covers 45.0% of land; mangrove extent and threat status are not bound.⁸

   What is the state of biodiversity?Reported

8. A heavy-rain flood in a dense urban area that interrupts water, power and clinics together. SCN-SEN-FLD-01

   What will Q1 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-SEN-2026-BASELINE-WAT-005

In 2024, 88.0% of people in Senegal used at least basic drinking water, but only 27.2% used safely managed water and 13.2% in rural areas; 62.5% used at least basic sanitation and 30.1% used safely managed sanitation.

Basic access hides how many people drink water or use sanitation that is not safe. A flood, a power cut or a pipe failure reaches those people first, and so the water finding links to the climate and energy systems. Reading the finding by region matters, and a regional split is not bound in this edition⁵.

S.4At a glance

S.5What each steward reads in it

S.6What this edition is, and is not

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1Agence nationale de la statistique et de la démographie (ed.), “État et structure, urbanisation et caractéristiques socioculturelles de la population,” Rapport définitif, RGPH-5 2023 (observation year 2023, published 1 July 2025). ANSD, Dakar. Read on the Vie-Publique.sn record page, accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 12International Monetary Fund (ed.), “IMF Staff Concludes Visit to Senegal,” Press Release No. 26/216, 22 June 2026 (observation year 2025). IMF, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 13International Monetary Fund (ed.), “IMF Reaches Staff-Level Agreement on an Extended Credit Facility Arrangement with Senegal,” Press Release No. 26/282, 1 September 2026 (observation year 2025). IMF, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 7World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: greenhouse-gas emissions by gas and sector and land-use fluxes, Senegal (observation years 2023–2024). World Bank, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 16Government of Senegal (ed.), Contribution déterminée au niveau national du Sénégal, document dated December 2020. Submission document hosted by the UNFCCC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 17allAfrica (ed.), “Sénégal: Lutte contre le changement climatique – Le Sénégal valide sa troisième Contribution déterminée,” 6 April 2026 (observation year 2026). allAfrica, Dakar desk. Press report, accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 18Le Soleil (ed.), “Lutte contre le changement climatique: le Sénégal valide sa troisième contribution déterminée,” 6 April 2026 (observation year 2026). Le Soleil, Dakar. Press report, accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: access to electricity, electric power consumption and transmission losses, Senegal (observation years 2022–2024). World Bank, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 15Ember (ed.), Yearly electricity data, share of electricity by source, Senegal (observation years 2022–2024), read through the Our World in Data grapher files. Ember, London. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: drinking-water, sanitation and freshwater series, Senegal (observation years 2022–2024), drawn from the WHO and UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme and FAO. World Bank, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 24Ministry of Hydraulics and Sanitation (ed.), national evaluation workshop on the 2025 rainy season, 16 December 2025, as reported by allAfrica, “Inondations: plus de 10 millions de m³ d’eau pompés en 2025” (observation year 2025). Press report, accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 22World Health Organization (ed.), “Rift Valley fever: Mauritania and Senegal,” Disease Outbreak News 2025-DON584, 5 November 2025 (observation period 20 September to 30 October 2025). WHO, Geneva. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 20Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: The Republic of Senegal, reference date 3 December 2024 (observation year 2024). FAO, Rome. Latest version served at access, 2026-11-03.back
14. 21CILSS, AGRHYMET and partners (eds.), Cadre Harmonisé: results of the updated projected situation of acute food and nutritional insecurity, Sahel, West Africa and Cameroon, June to August 2026, published 2 July 2026. AGRHYMET, Niamey. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 14International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Energy Profile: Senegal (capacity 2024, generation 2023, energy supply 2022; PDF created September 2025). IRENA, Abu Dhabi. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 19World Bank (ed.), Senegal Country Climate and Development Report, Executive Summary (observation year 2024, published October 2024). World Bank Group, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 8World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: forest area, agricultural land and protected areas, Senegal (observation years 2024–2025). World Bank, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 4World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: poverty headcount at national lines and at US$3.00 a day, Gini index, Senegal (observation year 2021). World Bank, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

• Where is Senegal’s risk concentrated, and in which systems?
• Which couplings carry shocks from one system to the next?
• Which capabilities hold under compound stress, and which are only documented?
• What must the 2027 programme measure first?

In this part

• Narrative
• Headline finding
• Lead figure
• Five system chapters
• Twelve-domain reading
• Sector screens
• Dependency matrix
• Risk objects
• Capability ladder
• Scenario
• Three lenses
• Portfolio

1.2The argument

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The Senegal matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

Transmission paths

1. 01

   CLI → INF → WAT

   Heavy rain overwhelms drainage and floods homes, roads and water points.

   Reported 2025 rainy season²⁴²⁵

2. 02

   CLI → HLT

   River and rain conditions favour outbreaks of vector-borne disease in the valley.

   Inferred Rift Valley fever 2025²²

3. 03

   ENE → FIN

   Oil and gas output lifts growth, while fuel imports and subsidies weigh on the budget.

   Reported growth 6.7% in 2025¹²¹³

4. 04

   CLI → FOO

   Rain deficits and floods cut crops in parts of the north and east.

   Reported GIEWS brief 2024²⁰

5. 05

   ENE → WAT → HLT

   A power cut stops pumping and treatment, and clinics lose supply.

   Inferred access and loss series⁵⁶

1.4Reinforcing loops

A shock entering either system of a loop can return amplified through the other.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1Agence nationale de la statistique et de la démographie (ed.), “État et structure, urbanisation et caractéristiques socioculturelles de la population,” Rapport définitif, RGPH-5 2023 (observation year 2023, published 1 July 2025). ANSD, Dakar. Read on the Vie-Publique.sn record page, accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 2Agence nationale de la statistique et de la démographie (ed.), Projections démographiques 2023–2073 du Sénégal (observation year 2023, published October 2024). ANSD, Dakar. Read on the Vie-Publique.sn record page, accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: access to electricity, electric power consumption and transmission losses, Senegal (observation years 2022–2024). World Bank, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 14International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Energy Profile: Senegal (capacity 2024, generation 2023, energy supply 2022; PDF created September 2025). IRENA, Abu Dhabi. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 15Ember (ed.), Yearly electricity data, share of electricity by source, Senegal (observation years 2022–2024), read through the Our World in Data grapher files. Ember, London. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 26Africanews (ed.), “Senegal’s 2025 oil output exceeds predictions to reach 36.1 million barrels,” 8 January 2026, reporting the Ministry of Energy, Oil and Mines (observation year 2025). Press report, accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 27Seneweb (ed.), “Oil and gas production figures for October 2025,” 6 November 2025, reporting the Minister of Energy, Petroleum and Mines (observation period to 31 October 2025). Press report, accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 16Government of Senegal (ed.), Contribution déterminée au niveau national du Sénégal, document dated December 2020. Submission document hosted by the UNFCCC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 17allAfrica (ed.), “Sénégal: Lutte contre le changement climatique – Le Sénégal valide sa troisième Contribution déterminée,” 6 April 2026 (observation year 2026). allAfrica, Dakar desk. Press report, accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: drinking-water, sanitation and freshwater series, Senegal (observation years 2022–2024), drawn from the WHO and UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme and FAO. World Bank, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 19World Bank (ed.), Senegal Country Climate and Development Report, Executive Summary (observation year 2024, published October 2024). World Bank Group, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 24Ministry of Hydraulics and Sanitation (ed.), national evaluation workshop on the 2025 rainy season, 16 December 2025, as reported by allAfrica, “Inondations: plus de 10 millions de m³ d’eau pompés en 2025” (observation year 2025). Press report, accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 22World Health Organization (ed.), “Rift Valley fever: Mauritania and Senegal,” Disease Outbreak News 2025-DON584, 5 November 2025 (observation period 20 September to 30 October 2025). WHO, Geneva. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 20Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: The Republic of Senegal, reference date 3 December 2024 (observation year 2024). FAO, Rome. Latest version served at access, 2026-11-03.back
15. 21CILSS, AGRHYMET and partners (eds.), Cadre Harmonisé: results of the updated projected situation of acute food and nutritional insecurity, Sahel, West Africa and Cameroon, June to August 2026, published 2 July 2026. AGRHYMET, Niamey. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: cereal production, food production index, undernourishment, food insecurity, stunting, agriculture share, Senegal (observation years 2023–2025). World Bank, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 28Seneweb (ed.), “Rice self-sufficiency: Senegal continues to import 1.3 million tons of white rice per year, minister,” 22 September 2025, reporting the Minister of Agriculture (observation year 2023–2025). Press report, accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 7World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: greenhouse-gas emissions by gas and sector and land-use fluxes, Senegal (observation years 2023–2024). World Bank, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 25Sud Quotidien (ed.), report on the 2025 rainy-season evaluation, 17 December 2025, distributed by allAfrica (observation year 2025). Press report, accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 12International Monetary Fund (ed.), “IMF Staff Concludes Visit to Senegal,” Press Release No. 26/216, 22 June 2026 (observation year 2025). IMF, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21. 13International Monetary Fund (ed.), “IMF Reaches Staff-Level Agreement on an Extended Credit Facility Arrangement with Senegal,” Press Release No. 26/282, 1 September 2026 (observation year 2025). IMF, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-SEN-2026-BASELINE-WAT-005

In 2024, 88.0% of people in Senegal used at least basic drinking water, but only 27.2% used safely managed water and 13.2% in rural areas; 62.5% used at least basic sanitation and 30.1% used safely managed sanitation.

Implication

Basic access hides how many people drink water or use sanitation that is not safe. A flood, a power cut or a pipe failure reaches those people first, and so the water finding links to the climate and energy systems. Reading the finding by region matters, and a regional split is not bound in this edition⁵.

What would move it

The next Joint Monitoring Programme update, regional household survey results, and the Dakar supply figures would each move this finding.

2.2Climate forcing

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-SEN-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001

   Greenhouse-gas emissions were about 31.7 Mt CO₂e in 2024 excluding land use: carbon dioxide 14.2 Mt, methane 12.3 Mt and nitrous oxide 3.7 Mt; agriculture supplied 9.4 Mt of the methane. Land use was a net carbon-dioxide sink of 13 Mt in 2023.⁷

2. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-SEN-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002

   The 2020 contribution targets a 2030 cut of 7% unconditional and 29.5% conditional below business as usual. A third contribution was validated nationally on 5 April 2026 with a reported range of 13 to 17%; its submission was not confirmed at evidence close.¹⁶¹⁷¹⁸

3. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-SEN-2026-BASELINE-CLI-011

   The 2025 rainy season killed 20 people, affected 8,336 and destroyed 946 ha of farmland. The World Bank estimates a drought year costs US$500 million, annual flood damage about US$100 million, and coastal erosion 3.3% of GDP.¹⁹²⁴²⁵

2.3Energy

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-SEN-2026-BASELINE-ENE-003

   Access to electricity was 82.9% in 2024, up from 67.9% in 2022, with 95.7% in urban and 67.1% in rural areas; transmission and distribution losses were 16.5% of output.⁶

2. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-SEN-2026-BASELINE-ENE-004

   Installed capacity was 1,901 MW in 2024, of which 481 MW was renewable; 85% of 2023 generation was non-renewable, and imports were 70% of primary energy supply in 2022. Sangomar produced 36.1 million barrels of oil in 2025 and Grand Tortue Ahmeyim began LNG production in February 2025.¹⁴²⁶²⁷

2.4Water

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-SEN-2026-BASELINE-WAT-005

   In 2024, 88.0% of people used at least basic drinking water but 27.2% used safely managed water, 13.2% in rural areas; 62.5% used basic sanitation and 30.1% safely managed sanitation.⁵

2. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-SEN-2026-BASELINE-WAT-006

   Freshwater withdrawals were 11.9% of internal resources in 2022 and renewable internal water was 1,462 m³ per person; the World Bank projects withdrawals to grow 30% to 60% by 2035, with 81% for irrigation.⁵¹⁹

2.5Food

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-SEN-2026-BASELINE-FOO-007

   The 2024 cereal harvest was forecast at 3.8 million tonnes, 8% above the five-year average. The March 2026 Cadre Harmonisé projected 836,786 people in Crisis or worse for June to August 2026, and 27.7% of people faced moderate or severe food insecurity in 2024.¹⁰²⁰²¹

2.6Health

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-SEN-2026-BASELINE-HLT-008

   WHO counted 358 confirmed human cases and 28 deaths of Rift Valley fever in Senegal between 20 September and 30 October 2025, 78% of them in the Saint-Louis region; life expectancy at birth was 68.9 years in 2024.⁹²²

2.7Biodiversity

1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-SEN-2026-BASELINE-BIO-009

   Forest covered 45.0% of land in 2024, down from 45.4% in 2019; 27.5% of land and 3.1% of territorial waters were protected in 2025. Mangrove extent and ecosystem threat status are not bound.⁸⁵¹

2.8Finance

1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-SEN-2026-BASELINE-FIN-010

   Real GDP grew 6.7% in 2025 while non-hydrocarbon growth was 2.2%; the fiscal deficit narrowed from 13.4% to 6.4% of GDP, and the IMF DataMapper series puts gross debt at 127.7% of GDP.¹¹¹²¹³

2.9Systemic

1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-COUNTRY-SEN-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

   The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a heavy-rain flood in a dense urban area that interrupts water, power and clinics at the same time. §9.3

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: drinking-water, sanitation and freshwater series, Senegal (observation years 2022–2024), drawn from the WHO and UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme and FAO. World Bank, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 7World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: greenhouse-gas emissions by gas and sector and land-use fluxes, Senegal (observation years 2023–2024). World Bank, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 16Government of Senegal (ed.), Contribution déterminée au niveau national du Sénégal, document dated December 2020. Submission document hosted by the UNFCCC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 17allAfrica (ed.), “Sénégal: Lutte contre le changement climatique – Le Sénégal valide sa troisième Contribution déterminée,” 6 April 2026 (observation year 2026). allAfrica, Dakar desk. Press report, accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 18Le Soleil (ed.), “Lutte contre le changement climatique: le Sénégal valide sa troisième contribution déterminée,” 6 April 2026 (observation year 2026). Le Soleil, Dakar. Press report, accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 19World Bank (ed.), Senegal Country Climate and Development Report, Executive Summary (observation year 2024, published October 2024). World Bank Group, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 24Ministry of Hydraulics and Sanitation (ed.), national evaluation workshop on the 2025 rainy season, 16 December 2025, as reported by allAfrica, “Inondations: plus de 10 millions de m³ d’eau pompés en 2025” (observation year 2025). Press report, accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 25Sud Quotidien (ed.), report on the 2025 rainy-season evaluation, 17 December 2025, distributed by allAfrica (observation year 2025). Press report, accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: access to electricity, electric power consumption and transmission losses, Senegal (observation years 2022–2024). World Bank, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 14International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Energy Profile: Senegal (capacity 2024, generation 2023, energy supply 2022; PDF created September 2025). IRENA, Abu Dhabi. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 26Africanews (ed.), “Senegal’s 2025 oil output exceeds predictions to reach 36.1 million barrels,” 8 January 2026, reporting the Ministry of Energy, Oil and Mines (observation year 2025). Press report, accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 27Seneweb (ed.), “Oil and gas production figures for October 2025,” 6 November 2025, reporting the Minister of Energy, Petroleum and Mines (observation period to 31 October 2025). Press report, accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: cereal production, food production index, undernourishment, food insecurity, stunting, agriculture share, Senegal (observation years 2023–2025). World Bank, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 20Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: The Republic of Senegal, reference date 3 December 2024 (observation year 2024). FAO, Rome. Latest version served at access, 2026-11-03.back
15. 21CILSS, AGRHYMET and partners (eds.), Cadre Harmonisé: results of the updated projected situation of acute food and nutritional insecurity, Sahel, West Africa and Cameroon, June to August 2026, published 2 July 2026. AGRHYMET, Niamey. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: life expectancy, child and maternal mortality, malaria and tuberculosis incidence, health expenditure, Senegal (observation years 2023–2024). World Bank, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 22World Health Organization (ed.), “Rift Valley fever: Mauritania and Senegal,” Disease Outbreak News 2025-DON584, 5 November 2025 (observation period 20 September to 30 October 2025). WHO, Geneva. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 8World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: forest area, agricultural land and protected areas, Senegal (observation years 2024–2025). World Bank, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 51UNVERIFIED, not opened: Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), Global Forest Resources Assessment 2025: Senegal country report. FAO, Rome, 2025. The country report was searched for and not reached.back
20. 11International Monetary Fund (ed.), World Economic Outlook database via the DataMapper interface: real GDP growth and general government gross debt, Senegal (observation years 1980–2025). IMF, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03; the database vintage was not stated on the page read.back
21. 12International Monetary Fund (ed.), “IMF Staff Concludes Visit to Senegal,” Press Release No. 26/216, 22 June 2026 (observation year 2025). IMF, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22. 13International Monetary Fund (ed.), “IMF Reaches Staff-Level Agreement on an Extended Credit Facility Arrangement with Senegal,” Press Release No. 26/282, 1 September 2026 (observation year 2025). IMF, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries risk into other systems.

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened on the same grammar, so that later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: drinking-water, sanitation and freshwater series, Senegal (observation years 2022–2024), drawn from the WHO and UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme and FAO. World Bank, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: access to electricity, electric power consumption and transmission losses, Senegal (observation years 2022–2024). World Bank, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 21CILSS, AGRHYMET and partners (eds.), Cadre Harmonisé: results of the updated projected situation of acute food and nutritional insecurity, Sahel, West Africa and Cameroon, June to August 2026, published 2 July 2026. AGRHYMET, Niamey. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 22World Health Organization (ed.), “Rift Valley fever: Mauritania and Senegal,” Disease Outbreak News 2025-DON584, 5 November 2025 (observation period 20 September to 30 October 2025). WHO, Geneva. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 8World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: forest area, agricultural land and protected areas, Senegal (observation years 2024–2025). World Bank, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 24Ministry of Hydraulics and Sanitation (ed.), national evaluation workshop on the 2025 rainy season, 16 December 2025, as reported by allAfrica, “Inondations: plus de 10 millions de m³ d’eau pompés en 2025” (observation year 2025). Press report, accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 14International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Energy Profile: Senegal (capacity 2024, generation 2023, energy supply 2022; PDF created September 2025). IRENA, Abu Dhabi. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 20Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: The Republic of Senegal, reference date 3 December 2024 (observation year 2024). FAO, Rome. Latest version served at access, 2026-11-03.back
9. 12International Monetary Fund (ed.), “IMF Staff Concludes Visit to Senegal,” Press Release No. 26/216, 22 June 2026 (observation year 2025). IMF, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 4World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: poverty headcount at national lines and at US$3.00 a day, Gini index, Senegal (observation year 2021). World Bank, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 16Government of Senegal (ed.), Contribution déterminée au niveau national du Sénégal, document dated December 2020. Submission document hosted by the UNFCCC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 25Sud Quotidien (ed.), report on the 2025 rainy-season evaluation, 17 December 2025, distributed by allAfrica (observation year 2025). Press report, accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 1Agence nationale de la statistique et de la démographie (ed.), “État et structure, urbanisation et caractéristiques socioculturelles de la population,” Rapport définitif, RGPH-5 2023 (observation year 2023, published 1 July 2025). ANSD, Dakar. Read on the Vie-Publique.sn record page, accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 29Government of Senegal (ed.), Loi n° 2018-25 du 12 novembre 2018 portant Code forestier. Dakar, 2018. Read on the Vie-Publique.sn record page (description only), accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 30Government of Senegal (ed.), Loi n° 2019-03 du 1er février 2019 portant Code pétrolier. Dakar, 2019. Read on the Vie-Publique.sn record page (description only), accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 19World Bank (ed.), Senegal Country Climate and Development Report, Executive Summary (observation year 2024, published October 2024). World Bank Group, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

1. ReportedEQL 3RSK-SEN-CLI-001

   Heavy-rain flooding in a dense urban area

   Driver

   intense rainfall over low-lying, built-up land

   Exposure

   Touba: 70,000 people exposed; Lac Rose area: 20,000 vulnerable²⁴

   Vulnerability

   schools, roads and homes flooded in 2025; 296 schools affected²⁵

   Capacity

   national flood committee since 2019; regional emergency plans²⁵

   Cascade

   CLI → INF, WAT, HLT

   Horizon

   annual

2. ReportedEQL 3RSK-SEN-HLT-002

   Rift Valley fever in the river valley

   Driver

   mosquito-borne spread among livestock and people

   Exposure

   Saint-Louis region held 78% of cases²²

   Vulnerability

   358 confirmed cases and 28 deaths by 30 Oct 2025²²

   Capacity

   joint WHO, FAO and WOAH assessment; national response not bound

   Cascade

   HLT → FOO, FIN

   Horizon

   1–5 years

3. ReportedEQL 3RSK-SEN-ENE-003

   Fuel and supply exposure of the power system

   Driver

   fuel-oil dependence and import exposure

   Exposure

   households, water works, clinics, industry

   Vulnerability

   imports 70% of primary energy supply¹⁴; oil 79% of electricity¹⁵

   Capacity

   domestic gas starting; conversion to gas not bound¹⁹²⁷

   Cascade

   ENE → WAT, HLT, FIN

   Horizon

   1–5 years

4. ReportedEQL 3RSK-SEN-CLI-004

   Coastal erosion and sea-level rise

   Driver

   sea-level rise and storm waves on a low coast

   Exposure

   half of people and two-thirds of GDP in coastal zones¹⁹

   Vulnerability

   75% of coastline at risk; losses 3.3% of GDP¹⁹

   Capacity

   coastal resilience projects exist; scope not bound⁵²

   Cascade

   CLI → INF, WAT, FOO

   Horizon

   5–30 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 24Ministry of Hydraulics and Sanitation (ed.), national evaluation workshop on the 2025 rainy season, 16 December 2025, as reported by allAfrica, “Inondations: plus de 10 millions de m³ d’eau pompés en 2025” (observation year 2025). Press report, accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 25Sud Quotidien (ed.), report on the 2025 rainy-season evaluation, 17 December 2025, distributed by allAfrica (observation year 2025). Press report, accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 22World Health Organization (ed.), “Rift Valley fever: Mauritania and Senegal,” Disease Outbreak News 2025-DON584, 5 November 2025 (observation period 20 September to 30 October 2025). WHO, Geneva. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 14International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Energy Profile: Senegal (capacity 2024, generation 2023, energy supply 2022; PDF created September 2025). IRENA, Abu Dhabi. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 15Ember (ed.), Yearly electricity data, share of electricity by source, Senegal (observation years 2022–2024), read through the Our World in Data grapher files. Ember, London. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 19World Bank (ed.), Senegal Country Climate and Development Report, Executive Summary (observation year 2024, published October 2024). World Bank Group, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 27Seneweb (ed.), “Oil and gas production figures for October 2025,” 6 November 2025, reporting the Minister of Energy, Petroleum and Mines (observation period to 31 October 2025). Press report, accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 52UNVERIFIED, not opened: Agence de Presse Sénégalaise or allAfrica (eds.), report on the World Bank-backed Saint-Louis coastal resilience project, June 2025. Search-result listing only; access to the page was refused and no figure is taken from it.back
9. 21CILSS, AGRHYMET and partners (eds.), Cadre Harmonisé: results of the updated projected situation of acute food and nutritional insecurity, Sahel, West Africa and Cameroon, June to August 2026, published 2 July 2026. AGRHYMET, Niamey. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 16Government of Senegal (ed.), Contribution déterminée au niveau national du Sénégal, document dated December 2020. Submission document hosted by the UNFCCC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 1Agence nationale de la statistique et de la démographie (ed.), “État et structure, urbanisation et caractéristiques socioculturelles de la population,” Rapport définitif, RGPH-5 2023 (observation year 2023, published 1 July 2025). ANSD, Dakar. Read on the Vie-Publique.sn record page, accessed 2026-11-03.back

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-SEN-FLD-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline

the 2026 reference state in this edition

Drivers

a rainfall event over Dakar or Touba that exceeds drainage, with a power interruption of several days

Analogues

the 2025 rainy season²⁴²⁵; Senegal River floods of October 2024²⁰³⁸

Interventions

none modelled; the specification describes the unmitigated case

Run state

narrative specification; quantified Foundry run scheduled for Q1 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

1. 1

   CLI → INF

   heavy rain exceeds drainage; roads and schools are flooded

   2025 evidence²⁴²⁵

2. 2

   INF → ENE

   flooded substations and access roads interrupt supply

   loss series⁶

3. 3

   ENE → WAT

   pumping and treatment lose power; unsafe sources are used

   service series⁵

4. 4

   WAT → HLT

   unsafe water and standing water raise exposure to disease

   outbreak record²²

5. 5

   INF → FOO

   cut roads delay food distribution to affected districts

   GIEWS brief²⁰

6. 6

   ENE → FIN

   repair and relief costs fall on the budget

   fiscal series¹²

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-SEN-FLD-01 would travel through Senegal’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: Senegal 2026, scenario SCN-SEN-FLD-01 (2026); Senegal 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 24Ministry of Hydraulics and Sanitation (ed.), national evaluation workshop on the 2025 rainy season, 16 December 2025, as reported by allAfrica, “Inondations: plus de 10 millions de m³ d’eau pompés en 2025” (observation year 2025). Press report, accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 25Sud Quotidien (ed.), report on the 2025 rainy-season evaluation, 17 December 2025, distributed by allAfrica (observation year 2025). Press report, accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 20Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: The Republic of Senegal, reference date 3 December 2024 (observation year 2024). FAO, Rome. Latest version served at access, 2026-11-03.back
4. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Agence de Presse Africaine (ed.), report of 55,600 people affected by the October 2024 Senegal River floods, citing the government. APA News, 2024. Search-result snippet only; the page was not opened.back
5. 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: access to electricity, electric power consumption and transmission losses, Senegal (observation years 2022–2024). World Bank, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: drinking-water, sanitation and freshwater series, Senegal (observation years 2022–2024), drawn from the WHO and UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme and FAO. World Bank, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 22World Health Organization (ed.), “Rift Valley fever: Mauritania and Senegal,” Disease Outbreak News 2025-DON584, 5 November 2025 (observation period 20 September to 30 October 2025). WHO, Geneva. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 12International Monetary Fund (ed.), “IMF Staff Concludes Visit to Senegal,” Press Release No. 26/216, 22 June 2026 (observation year 2025). IMF, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject

Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.

6.2Three lenses

One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.

6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions

How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for Senegal. The standards are preparatory working drafts (October 2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.

6.4GCRI reading: the model card

GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology

6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.

6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: q1 2027 readiness pack

The registers that open the first operational quarter. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.

Publication dispositions

• Publish
• Hold
• Needs evidence
• Restricted
• Superseded

6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Instruments that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.

• IN FORCE
• ADOPTED
• SUBMITTED
• UNDER REVIEW
• PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY

6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments

The review behind this edition covers peer-reviewed science, national and international assessments and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Full systematic reviews begin in Q1 2027 for each agenda item.

Review protocol

Question

What does the published evidence establish about Senegal’s coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity risks?

Sources searched

peer-reviewed literature; national and international assessments; official releases; industry loss data

Window

releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026

Selection

sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition

Next step

systematic reviews for agenda items A-01 to A-05 in Q1 2027

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 13International Monetary Fund (ed.), “IMF Reaches Staff-Level Agreement on an Extended Credit Facility Arrangement with Senegal,” Press Release No. 26/282, 1 September 2026 (observation year 2025). IMF, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNFCCC (ed.), Paris Agreement. United Nations, Paris, 2015. Cited from memory as context.back
3. 16Government of Senegal (ed.), Contribution déterminée au niveau national du Sénégal, document dated December 2020. Submission document hosted by the UNFCCC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 17allAfrica (ed.), “Sénégal: Lutte contre le changement climatique – Le Sénégal valide sa troisième Contribution déterminée,” 6 April 2026 (observation year 2026). allAfrica, Dakar desk. Press report, accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 18Le Soleil (ed.), “Lutte contre le changement climatique: le Sénégal valide sa troisième contribution déterminée,” 6 April 2026 (observation year 2026). Le Soleil, Dakar. Press report, accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 32Agence de Presse Sénégalaise (ed.), “Défis climatiques: le Sénégal engage la révision du 3e cycle de sa Contribution déterminée au niveau national (CDN 3.0),” 7 July 2025. APS, Dakar. Opened; only the headline and metadata were readable, accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 29Government of Senegal (ed.), Loi n° 2018-25 du 12 novembre 2018 portant Code forestier. Dakar, 2018. Read on the Vie-Publique.sn record page (description only), accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 30Government of Senegal (ed.), Loi n° 2019-03 du 1er février 2019 portant Code pétrolier. Dakar, 2019. Read on the Vie-Publique.sn record page (description only), accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of Senegal (ed.), Loi n° 2019-04 du 1er février 2019 relative au contenu local dans le secteur des hydrocarbures. Dakar, 2019. Cited from search-result listings only; one source gave 24 January 2019, the date of adoption.back
10. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of Senegal (ed.), Gas Code, Law No. 2020-06. Dakar, 2020. Named in the IRENA energy profile [14]; the text was not opened and the exact date was not read.back
11. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of Senegal (ed.), Loi n° 2021-31 du 9 juillet 2021 portant Code de l’électricité. Dakar, 2021. Cited from search-result listings of Journal Officiel n° 7446 of 5 August 2021; access to the text was refused.back
12. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of Senegal (ed.), Loi n° 2021-32 du 9 juillet 2021 portant création, organisation et attributions de la Commission de régulation du secteur de l’énergie. Dakar, 2021. Cited from search-result listings only.back
13. 31Government of Senegal (ed.), Loi n° 2023-15 du 2 août 2023 portant Code de l’environnement. Dakar, 2023. Read on the Vie-Publique.sn record page (description only; repeal of the 2001 Code not confirmed), accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Cited from memory as context.back
15. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Cited from memory as context.back
16. 27Seneweb (ed.), “Oil and gas production figures for October 2025,” 6 November 2025, reporting the Minister of Energy, Petroleum and Mines (observation period to 31 October 2025). Press report, accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: C. H. Trisos, I. O. Adelekan, E. Totin et al., “Africa,” in Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. Cambridge University Press, 2022. Cited from memory as context.back
18. 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. Cited from memory as context.back
19. 47UNVERIFIED, not opened: J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Cited from memory as context.back
20. 19World Bank (ed.), Senegal Country Climate and Development Report, Executive Summary (observation year 2024, published October 2024). World Bank Group, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21. 48UNVERIFIED, not opened: World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Africa 2024. WMO, Geneva, 2025. Cited from memory as context.back
22. 49UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2025. UNDRR, Geneva, 2025. Cited from memory as context.back
23. 53UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Energy Agency (ed.), Senegal 2023 energy policy review. IEA, Paris, 2023. Listed in search results; access to the page was refused. Exact title to be confirmed.back
24. 22World Health Organization (ed.), “Rift Valley fever: Mauritania and Senegal,” Disease Outbreak News 2025-DON584, 5 November 2025 (observation period 20 September to 30 October 2025). WHO, Geneva. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
25. 1Agence nationale de la statistique et de la démographie (ed.), “État et structure, urbanisation et caractéristiques socioculturelles de la population,” Rapport définitif, RGPH-5 2023 (observation year 2023, published 1 July 2025). ANSD, Dakar. Read on the Vie-Publique.sn record page, accessed 2026-11-03.back
26. 2Agence nationale de la statistique et de la démographie (ed.), Projections démographiques 2023–2073 du Sénégal (observation year 2023, published October 2024). ANSD, Dakar. Read on the Vie-Publique.sn record page, accessed 2026-11-03.back
27. 3DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: population, urban share, age structure, GDP and growth, Senegal (observation year 2025; database update 8 October 2026). World Bank, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03 through the public indicator interface.back
28. 5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: drinking-water, sanitation and freshwater series, Senegal (observation years 2022–2024), drawn from the WHO and UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme and FAO. World Bank, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
29. 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: access to electricity, electric power consumption and transmission losses, Senegal (observation years 2022–2024). World Bank, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
30. 20Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: The Republic of Senegal, reference date 3 December 2024 (observation year 2024). FAO, Rome. Latest version served at access, 2026-11-03.back
31. 21CILSS, AGRHYMET and partners (eds.), Cadre Harmonisé: results of the updated projected situation of acute food and nutritional insecurity, Sahel, West Africa and Cameroon, June to August 2026, published 2 July 2026. AGRHYMET, Niamey. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
32. 23Seneweb (ed.), “Paludisme au Sénégal: nette baisse des cas et des décès,” 25 March 2026, reporting the national malaria control programme (observation years 2024–2025). Seneweb, Dakar. Press report, accessed 2026-11-03.back
33. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: World Health Organization (ed.), World Malaria Report 2025. WHO, Geneva, December 2025. Cited from search-result summaries; the Senegal country profile was not read.back
34. 12International Monetary Fund (ed.), “IMF Staff Concludes Visit to Senegal,” Press Release No. 26/216, 22 June 2026 (observation year 2025). IMF, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
35. 26Africanews (ed.), “Senegal’s 2025 oil output exceeds predictions to reach 36.1 million barrels,” 8 January 2026, reporting the Ministry of Energy, Oil and Mines (observation year 2025). Press report, accessed 2026-11-03.back
36. 24Ministry of Hydraulics and Sanitation (ed.), national evaluation workshop on the 2025 rainy season, 16 December 2025, as reported by allAfrica, “Inondations: plus de 10 millions de m³ d’eau pompés en 2025” (observation year 2025). Press report, accessed 2026-11-03.back
37. 25Sud Quotidien (ed.), report on the 2025 rainy-season evaluation, 17 December 2025, distributed by allAfrica (observation year 2025). Press report, accessed 2026-11-03.back
38. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of Senegal (ed.), Sénégal 2050: Agenda national de transformation, presented 14 October 2024. Dakar, 2024. Cited from search-result descriptions of the press kit only.back
39. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNICEF (ed.), UNICEF Senegal Flash Update No. 01: Floods, October 2024. UNICEF, Dakar, 2024. Listed on ReliefWeb; access to the page was refused.back
40. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNICEF (ed.), UNICEF Senegal Humanitarian Situation Report: Floods, 17 August to 17 September 2025. UNICEF, Dakar, 2025. Listed on ReliefWeb; the contents were not read.back
41. 14International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Energy Profile: Senegal (capacity 2024, generation 2023, energy supply 2022; PDF created September 2025). IRENA, Abu Dhabi. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
42. 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: cereal production, food production index, undernourishment, food insecurity, stunting, agriculture share, Senegal (observation years 2023–2025). World Bank, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

7.1Questions for the operational series

1. A-01

   How would a heavy-rain flood in Dakar or Touba interrupt water, power and health services, and how long would recovery take?

   INI-SEN-SYS-01 · urban flood continuity; first output: dependency graph for two cities.

2. A-02

   Where are people without safely managed water and sanitation, and which regions carry the gap?

   INI-SEN-WAT-02 · safely managed services gap; first output: regional gap table.

3. A-03

   How will oil and gas output and domestic gas reshape the power system, emissions and the budget?

   INI-SEN-ENE-03 · gas-to-power and emissions; first output: power-mix and emissions table.

4. A-04

   How exposed are cereal and rice supply to rainfall, price and import shocks?

   INI-SEN-FOO-04 · food supply exposure; first output: commodity dependence table.

5. A-05

   How do Senegal River floods, Rift Valley fever and irrigated rice link as one health risk?

   INI-SEN-HLT-05 · river valley one health; first output: case-and-flood timeline.

6. A-06

   How fast is the coast eroding at Saint-Louis and the Petite Côte, and who is exposed?

   INI-SEN-CLI-06 · workstream; first output: coastal exposure note.

7. A-07

   What is the condition of mangroves and forests, and how is it changing?

   To be admitted in Q1 2027; first output: scoping note against national forest records.

8. A-08

   Which capabilities have been tested in real events, and which are only planned?

   National capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for admission at the Q1 2027 alignment. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

7.3The pathway

Senegal is the national pathway through which the Nexus operating system will run in Senegal from 2027. At baseline the pathway is designed and its records are prepared; its councils and working groups are constituted from Q1 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next, nothing more.

1. 01

   One National Agenda

   bounded national questions for the year

   DRAFT 2027 · agenda review at the Q1 alignment

2. 02

   National Desk

   coordination, records, routing and continuity

   DESIGNED · constituted in Q1 2027

3. 03

   National Model

   the country as a system of systems

   v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with the first Foundry cut

4. 04

   National Portfolio

   risks, capabilities, initiatives, projects, missions

   7 PROPOSED · admission at the Q1 alignment

5. 05

   Foundry

   continuous computational environment

   PREPARED · first sealed cut NQ-SEN-2027-Q1

6. 06

   Reports

   quarterly and annual publication

   BASELINE ISSUED · Q1 2027 · State & Agenda

7. 07

   Universe

   annual proving environment

   CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate set in 2027

8. 08

   Evidence and correction

   after-action, correction and renewal

   OPEN · first correction cycle in Q2 2027

7.4Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission

1. 01

   Mandate

2. 02

   Core Build · 1 month

3. 03

   Action · 1 week

4. 04

   Evidence seal

5. 05

   Portfolio correction

6. 06

   Next mandate

Mission

ID

MSN-SEN-2027-01 · Urban flood and river valley Universe mission

Role spine

Leadership sponsor (NLC) · Institutional anchor (NNC) · Mission lead (NWG)

Receiving actors

to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

7.6Feeds and signal register

Escalation routes

• none · keep monitoring
• research question
• project
• risk object
• quarterly publication
• signal report

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 50UNVERIFIED, not opened: Organisation pour la mise en valeur du fleuve Sénégal (OMVS), Manantali and Diama dams and the Senegal River basin. OMVS, Dakar. Cited from search-result descriptions only; no figure is taken from it.back
2. 22World Health Organization (ed.), “Rift Valley fever: Mauritania and Senegal,” Disease Outbreak News 2025-DON584, 5 November 2025 (observation period 20 September to 30 October 2025). WHO, Geneva. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 26Africanews (ed.), “Senegal’s 2025 oil output exceeds predictions to reach 36.1 million barrels,” 8 January 2026, reporting the Ministry of Energy, Oil and Mines (observation year 2025). Press report, accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 24Ministry of Hydraulics and Sanitation (ed.), national evaluation workshop on the 2025 rainy season, 16 December 2025, as reported by allAfrica, “Inondations: plus de 10 millions de m³ d’eau pompés en 2025” (observation year 2025). Press report, accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 25Sud Quotidien (ed.), report on the 2025 rainy-season evaluation, 17 December 2025, distributed by allAfrica (observation year 2025). Press report, accessed 2026-11-03.back

8.1Water, the baseline system chapter

Water services reach most people at a basic level and few at a safe one. Safely managed drinking water reaches 27.2% of people and safely managed sanitation 30.1%.

8.2Energy, the baseline system chapter

Access has risen fast, but 85% of 2023 generation was non-renewable, imports were 70% of primary energy supply, and offshore oil and gas are now being produced.

8.3Food and agrifood, the baseline system chapter

Food supply held up in 2024, but a projected 836,786 people face Crisis or worse in mid-2026, and rice depends on imports.

8.4Health and One Health, the baseline system chapter

A Rift Valley fever outbreak in the river valley caused 358 confirmed cases and 28 deaths by 30 October 2025, which makes service continuity in floods a lifeline question.

8.5Biodiversity and ecosystems, the baseline system chapter

Forest covers 45.0% of land and 27.5% of land is protected, but mangrove extent and ecosystem threat status are not bound in this edition.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: drinking-water, sanitation and freshwater series, Senegal (observation years 2022–2024), drawn from the WHO and UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme and FAO. World Bank, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 19World Bank (ed.), Senegal Country Climate and Development Report, Executive Summary (observation year 2024, published October 2024). World Bank Group, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 50UNVERIFIED, not opened: Organisation pour la mise en valeur du fleuve Sénégal (OMVS), Manantali and Diama dams and the Senegal River basin. OMVS, Dakar. Cited from search-result descriptions only; no figure is taken from it.back
4. 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: access to electricity, electric power consumption and transmission losses, Senegal (observation years 2022–2024). World Bank, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 14International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Energy Profile: Senegal (capacity 2024, generation 2023, energy supply 2022; PDF created September 2025). IRENA, Abu Dhabi. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 26Africanews (ed.), “Senegal’s 2025 oil output exceeds predictions to reach 36.1 million barrels,” 8 January 2026, reporting the Ministry of Energy, Oil and Mines (observation year 2025). Press report, accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 27Seneweb (ed.), “Oil and gas production figures for October 2025,” 6 November 2025, reporting the Minister of Energy, Petroleum and Mines (observation period to 31 October 2025). Press report, accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of Senegal (ed.), Loi n° 2021-32 du 9 juillet 2021 portant création, organisation et attributions de la Commission de régulation du secteur de l’énergie. Dakar, 2021. Cited from search-result listings only.back
9. 20Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: The Republic of Senegal, reference date 3 December 2024 (observation year 2024). FAO, Rome. Latest version served at access, 2026-11-03.back
10. 21CILSS, AGRHYMET and partners (eds.), Cadre Harmonisé: results of the updated projected situation of acute food and nutritional insecurity, Sahel, West Africa and Cameroon, June to August 2026, published 2 July 2026. AGRHYMET, Niamey. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: cereal production, food production index, undernourishment, food insecurity, stunting, agriculture share, Senegal (observation years 2023–2025). World Bank, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 28Seneweb (ed.), “Rice self-sufficiency: Senegal continues to import 1.3 million tons of white rice per year, minister,” 22 September 2025, reporting the Minister of Agriculture (observation year 2023–2025). Press report, accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 22World Health Organization (ed.), “Rift Valley fever: Mauritania and Senegal,” Disease Outbreak News 2025-DON584, 5 November 2025 (observation period 20 September to 30 October 2025). WHO, Geneva. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: life expectancy, child and maternal mortality, malaria and tuberculosis incidence, health expenditure, Senegal (observation years 2023–2024). World Bank, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 23Seneweb (ed.), “Paludisme au Sénégal: nette baisse des cas et des décès,” 25 March 2026, reporting the national malaria control programme (observation years 2024–2025). Seneweb, Dakar. Press report, accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: World Health Organization (ed.), World Malaria Report 2025. WHO, Geneva, December 2025. Cited from search-result summaries; the Senegal country profile was not read.back
17. 8World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: forest area, agricultural land and protected areas, Senegal (observation years 2024–2025). World Bank, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 51UNVERIFIED, not opened: Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), Global Forest Resources Assessment 2025: Senegal country report. FAO, Rome, 2025. The country report was searched for and not reached.back

A.1Methods

The baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.

A.2Model card, National Model v0

Model ID

MDL-SEN-NATIONAL · v0.1

Purpose

represent Senegal as coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems with forcing and transmission layers

Family

graph-based system of systems

Inputs

the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data

Method

expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from evidence and analogue events

Validation

none yet, first validation against Q1 2027 Foundry evidence

Uncertainty

qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements

Domain of validity

national scale; not for region or asset-level use

Reproducibility

strength table and sources published in this edition

A.3The baseline evidence cut

Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Model runs begin with the first Foundry cut in Q1 2027.

Cut ID

NQ-SEN-2026-Q0-1

Type

baseline documentary cut

Resolution policy

pinned · as of 30 September 2026

Sources pinned

55 cited sources, each at the edition and retrieval date in the references

Model runs

none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method

Digest

computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record

Supersedes

nothing, first cut of the series

Superseded by

NQ-SEN-2027-Q1-1 at the Q1 2027 close

Lineage

1. 01

   source edition

2. 02

   pinned citation

3. 03

   finding

4. 04

   page

5. 05

   publication record

A.4Evidence age and coverage

A 2026 edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.

A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources

Evidence cards to follow in Q1 2027

• ANSD regional census tables and the full definitive report¹, for regional splits
• Official national inventory and transparency report⁷, when published
• Senelec and regulator generation data for 2025¹⁴¹⁵
• Monitoring programme country file⁵, for regional water and sanitation

A.6Publication acceptance record

Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.

A.7Status words

A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected

Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.

A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).

Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.

A.9Glossary and abbreviations

A.10Technical annex

A.1 · indicator definition, safely managed drinking water

Construct

a drinking-water source that is improved, located on premises, available when needed and free of contamination

Unit

share of people

Scope

national population, with urban and rural splits

Source

World Bank WDI series carrying the WHO and UNICEF monitoring results⁵

Revision

revised in each monitoring update

Known limits

the monitoring programme definition was read through the database, not the programme report

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1Agence nationale de la statistique et de la démographie (ed.), “État et structure, urbanisation et caractéristiques socioculturelles de la population,” Rapport définitif, RGPH-5 2023 (observation year 2023, published 1 July 2025). ANSD, Dakar. Read on the Vie-Publique.sn record page, accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 22World Health Organization (ed.), “Rift Valley fever: Mauritania and Senegal,” Disease Outbreak News 2025-DON584, 5 November 2025 (observation period 20 September to 30 October 2025). WHO, Geneva. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 7World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: greenhouse-gas emissions by gas and sector and land-use fluxes, Senegal (observation years 2023–2024). World Bank, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 14International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Energy Profile: Senegal (capacity 2024, generation 2023, energy supply 2022; PDF created September 2025). IRENA, Abu Dhabi. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 15Ember (ed.), Yearly electricity data, share of electricity by source, Senegal (observation years 2022–2024), read through the Our World in Data grapher files. Ember, London. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: drinking-water, sanitation and freshwater series, Senegal (observation years 2022–2024), drawn from the WHO and UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme and FAO. World Bank, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

B.1The indicator set

B.2National source register

The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.

Domains bound by the register

• WAT
• ENE
• FOO
• HLT
• BIO
• CLI
• INF
• FIN
• TRD
• MIN

B.3Regional reading, Senegal by region

Map plates for every region follow in Q2 2027, when boundary sources and public-safe resolutions are bound. This page gives the regional reading in table form.

Density and urbanisation, 2023¹

B.4Atlas card, Saint-Louis

• region
• river
• coast
• one health

Systems in view

river, coast, rice farms, health and homes

Defining events

Rift Valley fever outbreak of 2025; river floods of October 2024²²²⁰

Couplings

CLI → HLT; CLI → INF; CLI → FOO

Capability evidence

not bound

Gaps

coastal erosion rates; clinic continuity; irrigation water quality

Agenda items

A-05 · A-06

B.5Senegal system card

The card through which Senegal appears in the Africa regional edition and the global series. It summarises; it does not rank.

Context

Archetype

young, urbanising coastal Sahel economy beginning offshore oil and gas output

Population

18.1 million (2023 census)¹

Trade

rice importer; wider trade not bound²⁸

Hazard

river and urban floods; coastal erosion¹⁹²⁴

B.6Licences

B.7Formats and provenance

Provenance

Edition pack

The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built

Evidence cut

NQ-SEN-2026-Q0-1, closed 30 September 2026

Reproducibility

sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters

Self-check

14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release

Review

five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)

Publisher of record

GCRI for the Nexus Consortium

Corrections

Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 7World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: greenhouse-gas emissions by gas and sector and land-use fluxes, Senegal (observation years 2023–2024). World Bank, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 16Government of Senegal (ed.), Contribution déterminée au niveau national du Sénégal, document dated December 2020. Submission document hosted by the UNFCCC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: access to electricity, electric power consumption and transmission losses, Senegal (observation years 2022–2024). World Bank, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 14International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Energy Profile: Senegal (capacity 2024, generation 2023, energy supply 2022; PDF created September 2025). IRENA, Abu Dhabi. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 26Africanews (ed.), “Senegal’s 2025 oil output exceeds predictions to reach 36.1 million barrels,” 8 January 2026, reporting the Ministry of Energy, Oil and Mines (observation year 2025). Press report, accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: drinking-water, sanitation and freshwater series, Senegal (observation years 2022–2024), drawn from the WHO and UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme and FAO. World Bank, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 21CILSS, AGRHYMET and partners (eds.), Cadre Harmonisé: results of the updated projected situation of acute food and nutritional insecurity, Sahel, West Africa and Cameroon, June to August 2026, published 2 July 2026. AGRHYMET, Niamey. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 22World Health Organization (ed.), “Rift Valley fever: Mauritania and Senegal,” Disease Outbreak News 2025-DON584, 5 November 2025 (observation period 20 September to 30 October 2025). WHO, Geneva. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 24Ministry of Hydraulics and Sanitation (ed.), national evaluation workshop on the 2025 rainy season, 16 December 2025, as reported by allAfrica, “Inondations: plus de 10 millions de m³ d’eau pompés en 2025” (observation year 2025). Press report, accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 1Agence nationale de la statistique et de la démographie (ed.), “État et structure, urbanisation et caractéristiques socioculturelles de la population,” Rapport définitif, RGPH-5 2023 (observation year 2023, published 1 July 2025). ANSD, Dakar. Read on the Vie-Publique.sn record page, accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 8World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: forest area, agricultural land and protected areas, Senegal (observation years 2024–2025). World Bank, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 50UNVERIFIED, not opened: Organisation pour la mise en valeur du fleuve Sénégal (OMVS), Manantali and Diama dams and the Senegal River basin. OMVS, Dakar. Cited from search-result descriptions only; no figure is taken from it.back
13. 51UNVERIFIED, not opened: Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), Global Forest Resources Assessment 2025: Senegal country report. FAO, Rome, 2025. The country report was searched for and not reached.back
14. 2Agence nationale de la statistique et de la démographie (ed.), Projections démographiques 2023–2073 du Sénégal (observation year 2023, published October 2024). ANSD, Dakar. Read on the Vie-Publique.sn record page, accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 3DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: population, urban share, age structure, GDP and growth, Senegal (observation year 2025; database update 8 October 2026). World Bank, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03 through the public indicator interface.back
16. 4World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: poverty headcount at national lines and at US$3.00 a day, Gini index, Senegal (observation year 2021). World Bank, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: life expectancy, child and maternal mortality, malaria and tuberculosis incidence, health expenditure, Senegal (observation years 2023–2024). World Bank, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: cereal production, food production index, undernourishment, food insecurity, stunting, agriculture share, Senegal (observation years 2023–2025). World Bank, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 11International Monetary Fund (ed.), World Economic Outlook database via the DataMapper interface: real GDP growth and general government gross debt, Senegal (observation years 1980–2025). IMF, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03; the database vintage was not stated on the page read.back
20. 12International Monetary Fund (ed.), “IMF Staff Concludes Visit to Senegal,” Press Release No. 26/216, 22 June 2026 (observation year 2025). IMF, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21. 13International Monetary Fund (ed.), “IMF Reaches Staff-Level Agreement on an Extended Credit Facility Arrangement with Senegal,” Press Release No. 26/282, 1 September 2026 (observation year 2025). IMF, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22. 15Ember (ed.), Yearly electricity data, share of electricity by source, Senegal (observation years 2022–2024), read through the Our World in Data grapher files. Ember, London. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23. 17allAfrica (ed.), “Sénégal: Lutte contre le changement climatique – Le Sénégal valide sa troisième Contribution déterminée,” 6 April 2026 (observation year 2026). allAfrica, Dakar desk. Press report, accessed 2026-11-03.back
24. 18Le Soleil (ed.), “Lutte contre le changement climatique: le Sénégal valide sa troisième contribution déterminée,” 6 April 2026 (observation year 2026). Le Soleil, Dakar. Press report, accessed 2026-11-03.back
25. 32Agence de Presse Sénégalaise (ed.), “Défis climatiques: le Sénégal engage la révision du 3e cycle de sa Contribution déterminée au niveau national (CDN 3.0),” 7 July 2025. APS, Dakar. Opened; only the headline and metadata were readable, accessed 2026-11-03.back
26. 19World Bank (ed.), Senegal Country Climate and Development Report, Executive Summary (observation year 2024, published October 2024). World Bank Group, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
27. 20Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: The Republic of Senegal, reference date 3 December 2024 (observation year 2024). FAO, Rome. Latest version served at access, 2026-11-03.back
28. 23Seneweb (ed.), “Paludisme au Sénégal: nette baisse des cas et des décès,” 25 March 2026, reporting the national malaria control programme (observation years 2024–2025). Seneweb, Dakar. Press report, accessed 2026-11-03.back
29. 25Sud Quotidien (ed.), report on the 2025 rainy-season evaluation, 17 December 2025, distributed by allAfrica (observation year 2025). Press report, accessed 2026-11-03.back
30. 27Seneweb (ed.), “Oil and gas production figures for October 2025,” 6 November 2025, reporting the Minister of Energy, Petroleum and Mines (observation period to 31 October 2025). Press report, accessed 2026-11-03.back
31. 28Seneweb (ed.), “Rice self-sufficiency: Senegal continues to import 1.3 million tons of white rice per year, minister,” 22 September 2025, reporting the Minister of Agriculture (observation year 2023–2025). Press report, accessed 2026-11-03.back
32. 29Government of Senegal (ed.), Loi n° 2018-25 du 12 novembre 2018 portant Code forestier. Dakar, 2018. Read on the Vie-Publique.sn record page (description only), accessed 2026-11-03.back
33. 30Government of Senegal (ed.), Loi n° 2019-03 du 1er février 2019 portant Code pétrolier. Dakar, 2019. Read on the Vie-Publique.sn record page (description only), accessed 2026-11-03.back
34. 31Government of Senegal (ed.), Loi n° 2023-15 du 2 août 2023 portant Code de l’environnement. Dakar, 2023. Read on the Vie-Publique.sn record page (description only; repeal of the 2001 Code not confirmed), accessed 2026-11-03.back
35. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of Senegal (ed.), Loi n° 2021-31 du 9 juillet 2021 portant Code de l’électricité. Dakar, 2021. Cited from search-result listings of Journal Officiel n° 7446 of 5 August 2021; access to the text was refused.back
36. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of Senegal (ed.), Loi n° 2021-32 du 9 juillet 2021 portant création, organisation et attributions de la Commission de régulation du secteur de l’énergie. Dakar, 2021. Cited from search-result listings only.back
37. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of Senegal (ed.), Loi n° 2019-04 du 1er février 2019 relative au contenu local dans le secteur des hydrocarbures. Dakar, 2019. Cited from search-result listings only; one source gave 24 January 2019, the date of adoption.back
38. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of Senegal (ed.), Gas Code, Law No. 2020-06. Dakar, 2020. Named in the IRENA energy profile [14]; the text was not opened and the exact date was not read.back
39. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Agence de Presse Africaine (ed.), report of 55,600 people affected by the October 2024 Senegal River floods, citing the government. APA News, 2024. Search-result snippet only; the page was not opened.back
40. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNICEF (ed.), UNICEF Senegal Flash Update No. 01: Floods, October 2024. UNICEF, Dakar, 2024. Listed on ReliefWeb; access to the page was refused.back
41. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNICEF (ed.), UNICEF Senegal Humanitarian Situation Report: Floods, 17 August to 17 September 2025. UNICEF, Dakar, 2025. Listed on ReliefWeb; the contents were not read.back
42. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: World Health Organization (ed.), World Malaria Report 2025. WHO, Geneva, December 2025. Cited from search-result summaries; the Senegal country profile was not read.back
43. 52UNVERIFIED, not opened: Agence de Presse Sénégalaise or allAfrica (eds.), report on the World Bank-backed Saint-Louis coastal resilience project, June 2025. Search-result listing only; access to the page was refused and no figure is taken from it.back
44. 53UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Energy Agency (ed.), Senegal 2023 energy policy review. IEA, Paris, 2023. Listed in search results; access to the page was refused. Exact title to be confirmed.back
45. 54S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.back
46. 55S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.back

C.155 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

1. 1Agence nationale de la statistique et de la démographie (ed.), “État et structure, urbanisation et caractéristiques socioculturelles de la population,” Rapport définitif, RGPH-5 2023 (observation year 2023, published 1 July 2025). ANSD, Dakar. Read on the Vie-Publique.sn record page, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
2. 2Agence nationale de la statistique et de la démographie (ed.), Projections démographiques 2023–2073 du Sénégal (observation year 2023, published October 2024). ANSD, Dakar. Read on the Vie-Publique.sn record page, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6
3. 3DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: population, urban share, age structure, GDP and growth, Senegal (observation year 2025; database update 8 October 2026). World Bank, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03 through the public indicator interface. Cited in chapter 6
4. 4World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: poverty headcount at national lines and at US$3.00 a day, Gini index, Senegal (observation year 2021). World Bank, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 3
5. 5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: drinking-water, sanitation and freshwater series, Senegal (observation years 2022–2024), drawn from the WHO and UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme and FAO. World Bank, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
6. 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: access to electricity, electric power consumption and transmission losses, Senegal (observation years 2022–2024). World Bank, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
7. 7World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: greenhouse-gas emissions by gas and sector and land-use fluxes, Senegal (observation years 2023–2024). World Bank, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2
8. 8World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: forest area, agricultural land and protected areas, Senegal (observation years 2024–2025). World Bank, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8
9. 9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: life expectancy, child and maternal mortality, malaria and tuberculosis incidence, health expenditure, Senegal (observation years 2023–2024). World Bank, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 8
10. 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: cereal production, food production index, undernourishment, food insecurity, stunting, agriculture share, Senegal (observation years 2023–2025). World Bank, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
11. 11International Monetary Fund (ed.), World Economic Outlook database via the DataMapper interface: real GDP growth and general government gross debt, Senegal (observation years 1980–2025). IMF, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03; the database vintage was not stated on the page read. Cited in chapter 2
12. 12International Monetary Fund (ed.), “IMF Staff Concludes Visit to Senegal,” Press Release No. 26/216, 22 June 2026 (observation year 2025). IMF, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 6
13. 13International Monetary Fund (ed.), “IMF Reaches Staff-Level Agreement on an Extended Credit Facility Arrangement with Senegal,” Press Release No. 26/282, 1 September 2026 (observation year 2025). IMF, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6
14. 14International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Energy Profile: Senegal (capacity 2024, generation 2023, energy supply 2022; PDF created September 2025). IRENA, Abu Dhabi. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
15. 15Ember (ed.), Yearly electricity data, share of electricity by source, Senegal (observation years 2022–2024), read through the Our World in Data grapher files. Ember, London. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 4
16. 16Government of Senegal (ed.), Contribution déterminée au niveau national du Sénégal, document dated December 2020. Submission document hosted by the UNFCCC. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
17. 17allAfrica (ed.), “Sénégal: Lutte contre le changement climatique – Le Sénégal valide sa troisième Contribution déterminée,” 6 April 2026 (observation year 2026). allAfrica, Dakar desk. Press report, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6
18. 18Le Soleil (ed.), “Lutte contre le changement climatique: le Sénégal valide sa troisième contribution déterminée,” 6 April 2026 (observation year 2026). Le Soleil, Dakar. Press report, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6
19. 19World Bank (ed.), Senegal Country Climate and Development Report, Executive Summary (observation year 2024, published October 2024). World Bank Group, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
20. 20Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: The Republic of Senegal, reference date 3 December 2024 (observation year 2024). FAO, Rome. Latest version served at access, 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
21. 21CILSS, AGRHYMET and partners (eds.), Cadre Harmonisé: results of the updated projected situation of acute food and nutritional insecurity, Sahel, West Africa and Cameroon, June to August 2026, published 2 July 2026. AGRHYMET, Niamey. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
22. 22World Health Organization (ed.), “Rift Valley fever: Mauritania and Senegal,” Disease Outbreak News 2025-DON584, 5 November 2025 (observation period 20 September to 30 October 2025). WHO, Geneva. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
23. 23Seneweb (ed.), “Paludisme au Sénégal: nette baisse des cas et des décès,” 25 March 2026, reporting the national malaria control programme (observation years 2024–2025). Seneweb, Dakar. Press report, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
24. 24Ministry of Hydraulics and Sanitation (ed.), national evaluation workshop on the 2025 rainy season, 16 December 2025, as reported by allAfrica, “Inondations: plus de 10 millions de m³ d’eau pompés en 2025” (observation year 2025). Press report, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7
25. 25Sud Quotidien (ed.), report on the 2025 rainy-season evaluation, 17 December 2025, distributed by allAfrica (observation year 2025). Press report, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7
26. 26Africanews (ed.), “Senegal’s 2025 oil output exceeds predictions to reach 36.1 million barrels,” 8 January 2026, reporting the Ministry of Energy, Oil and Mines (observation year 2025). Press report, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
27. 27Seneweb (ed.), “Oil and gas production figures for October 2025,” 6 November 2025, reporting the Minister of Energy, Petroleum and Mines (observation period to 31 October 2025). Press report, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
28. 28Seneweb (ed.), “Rice self-sufficiency: Senegal continues to import 1.3 million tons of white rice per year, minister,” 22 September 2025, reporting the Minister of Agriculture (observation year 2023–2025). Press report, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 8
29. 29Government of Senegal (ed.), Loi n° 2018-25 du 12 novembre 2018 portant Code forestier. Dakar, 2018. Read on the Vie-Publique.sn record page (description only), accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
30. 30Government of Senegal (ed.), Loi n° 2019-03 du 1er février 2019 portant Code pétrolier. Dakar, 2019. Read on the Vie-Publique.sn record page (description only), accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
31. 31Government of Senegal (ed.), Loi n° 2023-15 du 2 août 2023 portant Code de l’environnement. Dakar, 2023. Read on the Vie-Publique.sn record page (description only; repeal of the 2001 Code not confirmed), accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
32. 32Agence de Presse Sénégalaise (ed.), “Défis climatiques: le Sénégal engage la révision du 3e cycle de sa Contribution déterminée au niveau national (CDN 3.0),” 7 July 2025. APS, Dakar. Opened; only the headline and metadata were readable, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
33. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of Senegal (ed.), Loi n° 2021-31 du 9 juillet 2021 portant Code de l’électricité. Dakar, 2021. Cited from search-result listings of Journal Officiel n° 7446 of 5 August 2021; access to the text was refused. Cited in chapter 6
34. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of Senegal (ed.), Loi n° 2021-32 du 9 juillet 2021 portant création, organisation et attributions de la Commission de régulation du secteur de l’énergie. Dakar, 2021. Cited from search-result listings only. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
35. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of Senegal (ed.), Loi n° 2019-04 du 1er février 2019 relative au contenu local dans le secteur des hydrocarbures. Dakar, 2019. Cited from search-result listings only; one source gave 24 January 2019, the date of adoption. Cited in chapter 6
36. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of Senegal (ed.), Gas Code, Law No. 2020-06. Dakar, 2020. Named in the IRENA energy profile [14]; the text was not opened and the exact date was not read. Cited in chapter 6
37. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of Senegal (ed.), Sénégal 2050: Agenda national de transformation, presented 14 October 2024. Dakar, 2024. Cited from search-result descriptions of the press kit only. Cited in chapter 6
38. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Agence de Presse Africaine (ed.), report of 55,600 people affected by the October 2024 Senegal River floods, citing the government. APA News, 2024. Search-result snippet only; the page was not opened. Cited in chapter 5
39. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNICEF (ed.), UNICEF Senegal Flash Update No. 01: Floods, October 2024. UNICEF, Dakar, 2024. Listed on ReliefWeb; access to the page was refused. Cited in chapter 6
40. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNICEF (ed.), UNICEF Senegal Humanitarian Situation Report: Floods, 17 August to 17 September 2025. UNICEF, Dakar, 2025. Listed on ReliefWeb; the contents were not read. Cited in chapter 6
41. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: World Health Organization (ed.), World Malaria Report 2025. WHO, Geneva, December 2025. Cited from search-result summaries; the Senegal country profile was not read. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
42. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNFCCC (ed.), Paris Agreement. United Nations, Paris, 2015. Cited from memory as context. Cited in chapter 6
43. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Cited from memory as context. Cited in chapter 6
44. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Cited from memory as context. Cited in chapter 6
45. 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: C. H. Trisos, I. O. Adelekan, E. Totin et al., “Africa,” in Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. Cambridge University Press, 2022. Cited from memory as context. Cited in chapter 6
46. 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. Cited from memory as context. Cited in chapter 6
47. 47UNVERIFIED, not opened: J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Cited from memory as context. Cited in chapter 6
48. 48UNVERIFIED, not opened: World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Africa 2024. WMO, Geneva, 2025. Cited from memory as context. Cited in chapter 6
49. 49UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2025. UNDRR, Geneva, 2025. Cited from memory as context. Cited in chapter 6
50. 50UNVERIFIED, not opened: Organisation pour la mise en valeur du fleuve Sénégal (OMVS), Manantali and Diama dams and the Senegal River basin. OMVS, Dakar. Cited from search-result descriptions only; no figure is taken from it. Cited in chapter 7, chapter 8
51. 51UNVERIFIED, not opened: Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), Global Forest Resources Assessment 2025: Senegal country report. FAO, Rome, 2025. The country report was searched for and not reached. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 8
52. 52UNVERIFIED, not opened: Agence de Presse Sénégalaise or allAfrica (eds.), report on the World Bank-backed Saint-Louis coastal resilience project, June 2025. Search-result listing only; access to the page was refused and no figure is taken from it. Cited in chapter 4
53. 53UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Energy Agency (ed.), Senegal 2023 energy policy review. IEA, Paris, 2023. Listed in search results; access to the page was refused. Exact title to be confirmed. Cited in chapter 6
54. 54S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.
55. 55S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.

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