Reports · GCRI · Country profile
Senegal 2026
塞内加尔
Senegal (République du Sénégal) enters 2027 with 18.1 million residents at the 2023 census, 54.7% of them urban and 39.1% under 15. The economy grew 6.7% in 2025 as oil production began, while non-hydrocarbon growth was 2.2% and the IMF describes fiscal and debt vulnerabilities as elevated.
- 发现
- 12
- each with its status and source
- Sectors with findings
- 5 of 6
- Infrastructure not assessed
- Risk objects
- 4
- order carries no rank
- 来源
- 55
- Evidence close 30 September 2026
01 · Readings
Senegal in six readings.
Six readings that frame the Senegal baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.
02 · Sectors
Six sectors, one hexagon.
Water first, then Energy, Infrastructure, Food, Health and Biodiversity. Each count is the findings of this edition in that sector: coverage of the evidence, never a score. Infrastructure is not assessed: the edition holds no Infrastructure finding and its coupling matrix does not assess it.
- WAT水2 findings
27.2% People using safely managed drinking water, 2024. □报告值
Basic drinking water 88.0%, safely managed 27.2%; basic sanitation 62.5%.
- ENE能源2 findings
82.9% Access to electricity, 2024. □报告值
Access 82.9%; 85% of generation non-renewable; oil and gas now produced offshore.
- INF基础设施not assessed
Drainage, roads and pipes cut by floods; grid losses of 16.5%.
- FOO食品1 finding
0.84 million People in Crisis or worse, projected June to August 2026, 2026. □报告值
Cereal harvest above average in 2024; 836,786 people projected in Crisis or worse.
- HLT卫生1 finding
358 cases Confirmed Rift Valley fever cases, 20 Sep to 30 Oct, 2025. □报告值
Rift Valley fever outbreak with 28 deaths; life expectancy 68.9 years.
- BIO生物多样性1 finding
45.0 % of land Forest area, 2024. □报告值
Forest 45.0% of land; protected land 27.5%, protected waters 3.1%.
Outside the six sectors: Climate forcing 3, Finance 1, Systemic 1.
03 · Hazard exposure
The hazards this edition reads.
The edition’s own risk objects, in its order, each read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and horizon. The hexagon marks the sectors the cascade reaches; the domain beside each is an editorial reading of its hazard words.
RSK-SEN-CLI-001
Heavy-rain flooding in a dense urban area
□报告值EQL 3
- 驱动因素
- intense rainfall over low-lying, built-up land
- 风险暴露
- Touba: 70,000 people exposed; Lac Rose area: 20,000 vulnerable [24]
- 脆弱性
- schools, roads and homes flooded in 2025; 296 schools affected [25]
- 能力
- national flood committee since 2019; regional emergency plans [25]
- 级联
- CLI → INF, WAT, HLT
- 地平线
- 年度
RSK-SEN-HLT-002
Rift Valley fever in the river valley
□报告值EQL 3
- 驱动因素
- mosquito-borne spread among livestock and people
- 风险暴露
- Saint-Louis region held 78% of cases [22]
- 脆弱性
- 358 confirmed cases and 28 deaths by 30 Oct 2025 [22]
- 能力
- joint WHO, FAO and WOAH assessment; national response not bound
- 级联
- HLT → FOO, FIN
- 地平线
- 1–5 years
No domain reading
RSK-SEN-ENE-003
Fuel and supply exposure of the power system
□报告值EQL 3
- 驱动因素
- fuel-oil dependence and import exposure
- 风险暴露
- households, water works, clinics, industry
- 级联
- ENE → WAT, HLT, FIN
- 地平线
- 1–5 years
No domain reading
RSK-SEN-CLI-004
Coastal erosion and sea-level rise
□报告值EQL 3
Scenario · SCN-SEN-FLD-01
Urban flood with a water, power and clinic interruption
Under this scenario, results describe a conditional season under stated assumptions. It is not a forecast, and no intervention described here has been carried out.
2 of 12 findings name a hazard in their text. Show them
- 1CLI → INFheavy rain exceeds drainage; roads and schools are flooded
- 2INF → ENEflooded substations and access roads interrupt supply
- 3ENE → WATpumping and treatment lose power; unsafe sources are used
- 4WAT → HLTunsafe water and standing water raise exposure to disease
- 5INF → FOOcut roads delay food distribution to affected districts
- 6ENE → FINrepair and relief costs fall on the budget
04 · Couplings
How the sectors carry risk into each other.
The Senegal matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core 系统. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.
| 从 | WAT | ENE | FOO | HLT | BIO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAT | · | Strong | Strong | 中等 | Strong |
| ENE | 中等 | · | Strong | Strong | 中等 |
| FOO | 中等 | Weak | · | Strong | Strong |
| HLT | Weak | Weak | 中等 | · | Weak |
| BIO | Strong | 中等 | Strong | 中等 | · |
Water: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Energy: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Food: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Health: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Biodiversity: 4 couplings out, 4 in. Infrastructure is not in the coupling matrix: none of the edition matrices types it, so it carries no value.
Cascade paths, in the edition’s order
- CLI → INF → WATheavy rain overwhelms drainage and floods homes, roads and water points□报告值
- CLI → HLTriver and rain conditions favour outbreaks of vector-borne disease in the valley▲Inferred
- ENE → FINoil and gas output lifts growth, while fuel imports and subsidies weigh on the budget□报告值
- CLI → FOOrain deficits and floods cut crops in parts of the north and east□报告值
- ENE → WAT → HLTa power cut stops pumping and treatment, and clinics lose supply▲Inferred
05 · Findings
Every finding of Senegal.
Search, filter by sector, system or status, and sort. The address bar keeps the view, so a filtered list can be shared. Every row opens the finding at its source.
All 12 findings
| ID | 版本 | Sector or system | 状态 | Statement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLI-001 | 塞内加尔 | CLI Climate forcing | □ 报告值 | Greenhouse-gas emissions were about 31.7 Mt CO₂e in 2024 excluding land use: carbon dioxide 14.2 Mt, methane 12.3 Mt and nitrous oxide 3.7 Mt; agriculture supplied 9.4 Mt of the methane. Land use was a net carbon-dioxide sink of 13 Mt in 2023. |
| CLI-002 | 塞内加尔 | CLI Climate forcing | □ 报告值 | The 2020 contribution targets a 2030 cut of 7% unconditional and 29.5% conditional below business as usual. A third contribution was validated nationally on 5 April 2026 with a reported range of 13 to 17%; its submission was not confirmed at evidence close. |
| ENE-003 | 塞内加尔 | ENE 能源 | □ 报告值 | Access to electricity was 82.9% in 2024, up from 67.9% in 2022, with 95.7% in urban and 67.1% in rural areas; transmission and distribution losses were 16.5% of output. |
| ENE-004 | 塞内加尔 | ENE 能源 | □ 报告值 | Installed capacity was 1,901 MW in 2024, of which 481 MW was renewable; 85% of 2023 generation was non-renewable, and imports were 70% of primary energy supply in 2022. Sangomar produced 36.1 million barrels of oil in 2025 and Grand Tortue Ahmeyim began LNG production in February 2025. |
| WAT-005 | 塞内加尔 | WAT 水 | □ 报告值 | In 2024, 88.0% of people used at least basic drinking water but 27.2% used safely managed water, 13.2% in rural areas; 62.5% used basic sanitation and 30.1% safely managed sanitation. |
| WAT-006 | 塞内加尔 | WAT 水 | □ 报告值 | Freshwater withdrawals were 11.9% of internal resources in 2022 and renewable internal water was 1,462 m³ per person; the World Bank projects withdrawals to grow 30% to 60% by 2035, with 81% for irrigation. |
| FOO-007 | 塞内加尔 | FOO 食品 | □ 报告值 | The 2024 cereal harvest was forecast at 3.8 million tonnes, 8% above the five-year average. The March 2026 Cadre Harmonisé projected 836,786 people in Crisis or worse for June to August 2026, and 27.7% of people faced moderate or severe 粮食不安全 in 2024. |
| HLT-008 | 塞内加尔 | HLT 卫生 | □ 报告值 | WHO counted 358 confirmed human cases and 28 deaths of Rift Valley fever in Senegal between 20 September and 30 October 2025, 78% of them in the Saint-Louis region; life expectancy at birth was 68.9 years in 2024. |
| BIO-009 | 塞内加尔 | BIO 生物多样性 | □ 报告值 | Forest covered 45.0% of land in 2024, down from 45.4% in 2019; 27.5% of land and 3.1% of territorial waters were protected in 2025. Mangrove extent and ecosystem threat status are not bound. |
| FIN-010 | 塞内加尔 | FIN 金融 | □ 报告值 | Real GDP grew 6.7% in 2025 while non-hydrocarbon growth was 2.2%; the fiscal deficit narrowed from 13.4% to 6.4% of GDP, and the IMF DataMapper series puts gross debt at 127.7% of GDP. |
| CLI-011 | 塞内加尔 | CLI Climate forcing | □ 报告值 | The 2025 rainy season killed 20 people, affected 8,336 and destroyed 946 ha of farmland. The World Bank estimates a drought year costs US$500 million, annual flood damage about US$100 million, and coastal erosion 3.3% of GDP. |
| SYS-012 | 塞内加尔 | SYS 系统性 | ◎ Expert input | The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a heavy-rain flood in a dense urban area that interrupts water, power and clinics at the same time. |
06 · Editions and calendar
The desks’ editions for Senegal.
| 办事处 | 版本 | 状态 | 标识符 |
|---|---|---|---|
| GCRI Systems Evidence | Senegal 2026 | Drafted, in stewardship review | NR-COUNTRY-SEN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 |
| GRF Public Deliberation | Public Deliberation: Senegal 2026 | 筹备中 | |
| GRA Capital Readiness | Capital Readiness: Senegal 2026 | 筹备中 | |
| Standards Progress | No edition in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Academy Capability | No edition in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Index Measurement | Measurement: Senegal 2026 | 筹备中 |
Calendar · 2026 Baseline
- 01Call opensset by the editor
- 02Contribution closeset by the editor
- 03证据截止30 September 2026
- 04Desk review and releaseset by the editor
- 05Collection compilationset by the editor
- 06Collection releaseset by the editor
- 07更正after release, as needed
Evidence cut NQ-SEN-2026-Q0-1. Next cycles: Q1 2027, Q2 2027, Q3 2027, Q4 2027; their dates are set by the editor.
07 · Take part
Read it, improve it, cite it.
- 阅读The edition, chapter by chapter, with every source.
- 贡献Send evidence, a source or a method before the next cut.
- 审核Join the stewardship review of this edition.
- CiteAPA, Chicago, BibTeX, RIS and the house style, as a draft.
- PDFThe signed PDF is issued at release; print the complete edition today.
更正记录
| 版本 | 日期 | 状态 | 变化 | 通知 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NR-COUNTRY-SEN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 | October 2026 | DRAFT | Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition, | 无 |
Data gaps3What the repository does not hold yet, and the source proposed for each
| 差距 | Shown here as | Proposed source |
|---|---|---|
| Exposure values per hazard (people, assets, hectares) | the edition’s own risk objects, without values | the Index country profile once the Index releases values, risksindex.com/sen/ |
| The NHS-1 hazard types and their assignment to this edition’s risk objects | an editorial reading of the hazard words | the NHS-1 type assignment through the Registry |
| Infrastructure in the coupling matrix | Infrastructure marked not assessed | an Infrastructure row and column in the edition matrix at the next cut |
Send evidence or a correction on Senegal.
报告 is the Consortium’s quarterly publication, written by six desks. This page sits with the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) 系统 证据编辑部。您对此主题的了解可以成为下一期的证据、案例或更正，署您的名，若为您本人的作品则以 CC BY 4.0 发布。若发送到错误的编辑部，会被转交，不会被拒绝。
- 电子邮件网关 GW-GCRI从本页发送证据、更正、案例、方法、审查、翻译或概况投稿。它会带上本页标签送达，由负责的编辑接收。
- Zenodo开放存缴存缴并提交到社区用您的 ORCID iD 在 Zenodo 上发布您自己的记录，然后提交到那里的 Reports 社区。由策展人审核；DOI 仍归您所有。
- 报告GCRI查看哪个办事处受理您的事项路由表通向投稿页面：您拥有什么、由哪个编辑部受理、每项投稿如何审查和署名，以及许可。
切勿发送个人数据、敏感基础设施细节或您无权分享的任何内容。贡献在使用前会经过审查；发送贡献不赋予署名权或编辑权，赞助也绝不能换取研究结论。
CC BY 4.0 Free to read. Text and figures: CC BY 4.0. Data: CC0 1.0. Authors keep copyright. Published by GCRI Canada.