Reports · GCRI · Country profile
China 2026
Chine
China enters 2027 with 1,404.89 million people, a population that fell by 3.39 million in 2025 and in which 15.9% are aged 65 or over. The climate is moving visibly: 2025 tied 2024 as the warmest year since 1951 at 10.9 °C, the national average of hot days was the highest since 1961, and the rainy season in North China set records for both rainfall and duration.
- Constats
- 12
- each with its status and source
- Sectors with findings
- 5 of 6
- Infrastructure not assessed
- Risk objects
- 4
- order carries no rank
- Sources
- 46
- Evidence close 30 September 2026
01 · Readings
China in six readings.
Six readings that frame the China baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.
02 · Sectors
Six sectors, one hexagon.
Water first, then Energy, Infrastructure, Food, Health and Biodiversity. Each count is the findings of this edition in that sector: coverage of the evidence, never a score. Infrastructure is not assessed: the edition holds no Infrastructure finding and its coupling matrix does not assess it.
- WATEau1 finding
1,992 m³ Renewable internal freshwater per person, 2022. □Déclaré
About 1,990 m³ of renewable freshwater per person; rain is uneven in space and time; floods and scarcity coexist.
- ENEÉnergie2 findings
54.8% Coal share of electricity generation, 2025. □Déclaré
Coal 54.8% of electricity; wind and solar fast-growing at 21.9%.
- INFinfrastructuresnot assessed
Dense networks and underground spaces; failures in flood events documented.
- FOOAlimentation1 finding
714.88 million t Grain output, 2025. □Déclaré
Grain output 714.88 million t; cereal imports forecast well below average.
- HLTSanté1 finding
15.9% Population aged 65 or over, 2025. □Déclaré
Life expectancy 78.0 years; population 15.9% aged 65 or over and shrinking.
- BIOBiodiversité1 finding
15.6% Land in protected areas, 2025. □Déclaré
Protected land 15.6%, protected waters 4.8%, forest 24.0% of land.
Outside the six sectors: Climate forcing 3, Finance 1, SEI 1, Systemic 1.
03 · Hazard exposure
The hazards this edition reads.
The edition’s own risk objects, in its order, each read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and horizon. The hexagon marks the sectors the cascade reaches; the domain beside each is an editorial reading of its hazard words.
RSK-CHN-CLI-001
Record heat and hot-day extremes
◆EstiméEQL 4
RSK-CHN-CLI-002
Extreme rain and river flooding
□DéclaréEQL 4
- Facteur
- more intense rainfall and long rainy seasons [3]
- Exposition
- dense plains, reservoirs and underground spaces [14]
- Vulnérabilité
- drainage and reservoir condition not bound
- Capacité
- red rainstorm warnings issued in 2021 [14]
- Cascade
- CLI → WAT → INF, HLT
- Horizon
- annuel
RSK-CHN-SEI-003
Strong earthquakes on the plateau and in basins
□DéclaréEQL 3
- Facteur
- continental collision tectonics
- Exposition
- Dingri 2025: 126 deaths by the evening of the event [15]
- Vulnérabilité
- building condition by province not bound
- Capacité
- not bound: seismic code and response records
- Cascade
- SEI → INF, HLT
- Horizon
- 30 years
RSK-CHN-ENE-004
Coal-led power under rising demand and import exposure
◆EstiméEQL 3
- Facteur
- demand growth and heat peaks
- Exposition
- power, industry, households
- Capacité
- 1,842 GW of wind and solar installed [1]
- Cascade
- ENE → WAT, HLT, FOO
- Horizon
- 1 to 5 years
Scenario · SCN-CHN-FLD-01
Extreme rain on a dense plain in a hot summer
Under this scenario, results describe a conditional season under stated assumptions. It is not a forecast, and no intervention described here has been carried out.
2 of 12 findings name a hazard in their text. Show them
- 1CLI → INFstreets, tunnels and metro lines flood
- 2CLI → WATrivers exceed warning levels; reservoirs and levees threatened
- 3INF → HLTpeople trapped in underground spaces; ambulances delayed
- 4CLI → FOOstanding water and lodging damage crops
- 5CLI → HLTa preceding hot spell raises the base load on health services
- 6INF → ENEsubstations and pumping stations at risk
04 · Couplings
How the sectors carry risk into each other.
The China matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systèmes. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.
| De | WAT | ENE | FOO | HLT | BIO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAT | · | Strong | Strong | Modérée | Strong |
| ENE | Modérée | · | Strong | Strong | Modérée |
| FOO | Modérée | Weak | · | Strong | Strong |
| HLT | Weak | Weak | Modérée | · | Weak |
| BIO | Strong | Modérée | Strong | Modérée | · |
Water: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Energy: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Food: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Health: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Biodiversity: 4 couplings out, 4 in. Infrastructure is not in the coupling matrix: none of the edition matrices types it, so it carries no value.
Cascade paths, in the edition’s order
- CLI → WAT → INFpluies extrêmes floods streets, metro trains and road tunnels□Déclaré
- CLI → HLTrecord hot days load health services and cooling demand◆Estimé
- SEI → HLTa strong plateau séisme causes mass casualties□Déclaré
- CLI → FOOunseasonal autumn rain damages grain quality and delays sowing□Déclaré
- CLI → ENE → HLTheat raises cooling demand on a coal-led power system◆Estimé
05 · Findings
Every finding of China.
Search, filter by sector, system or status, and sort. The address bar keeps the view, so a filtered list can be shared. Every row opens the finding at its source.
All 12 findings
| ID | Édition | Sector or system | Statut | Statement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLI-001 | Chine | CLI Climate forcing | □ Déclaré | The national mean temperature was 10.9 °C in 2025, 1.0 °C above the 1991 to 2020 normal and tied with 2024 as the highest since 1951; hot days averaged 16.5, the most since 1961. |
| CLI-002 | Chine | CLI Climate forcing | □ Déclaré | North China had the highest rainy-season rainfall and the longest rainy season on record in 2025, and the Haihe basin had its third-largest annual rainfall. |
| FIN-003 | Chine | FIN Finance | □ Déclaré | Meteorological disasters in 2025 left 628 people dead or missing and caused 231.78 billion yuan of direct loss, 26.3% fewer deaths and missing and 28.8% less loss than the 2015 to 2024 average. |
| SEI-004 | Chine | SEI SEI | □ Déclaré | The Dingri (Tibet) séisme of 7 January 2025 had killed 126 people by that evening, according to official reports. |
| WAT-005 | Chine | WAT Eau | □ Déclaré | The 2021 Henan flood left 398 people dead or missing and affected 14.786 million, with 120.06 billion yuan of direct loss; the Zhengzhou station recorded 201.9 mm in one hour. |
| ENE-006 | Chine | ENE Énergie | □ Déclaré | Coal supplied 54.8% of electricity in 2025 and 51.4% of total energy consumption, while wind and solar supplied 21.9% of electricity. |
| ENE-007 | Chine | ENE Énergie | ◆ Estimé | Wind and solar capacity reached about 1,842 GW at the end of 2025, about 51% of the 3,600 GW the 2035 contribution strives for (sum and ratio ESTIMATED). |
| CLI-008 | Chine | CLI Climate forcing | □ Déclaré | Emissions excluding land use were 15,536 Mt CO₂e in 2024, 0.8% above 2023 (ESTIMATED change); the 2035 aim is net emissions 7 to 10% below peak levels, and the peak year is not established. |
| FOO-009 | Chine | FOO Alimentation | □ Déclaré | Grain output was 714.88 million tonnes in 2025; the FAO records 657.5 million tonnes of cereals and cereal imports well below average for 2025/26. |
| HLT-010 | Chine | HLT Santé | □ Déclaré | The population fell by 3.39 million to 1,404.89 million in 2025; 15.9% were aged 65 or over and births were 7.92 million. |
| BIO-011 | Chine | BIO Biodiversité | □ Déclaré | Protected areas covered 15.6% of land and 4.8% of territorial waters in 2025, and forest 24.0% of land in 2024, against a global 30% target for 2030. |
| SYS-012 | Chine | SYS Systémique | ◎ Expert input | The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is pluies extrêmes on a dense plain in a hot summer that cuts roads, underground transport, water and care together. |
06 · Editions and calendar
The desks’ editions for China.
| Bureau | Édition | État | Identifiant |
|---|---|---|---|
| GCRI Systems Evidence | China 2026 | Drafted, in stewardship review | NR-COUNTRY-CHN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 |
| GRF Public Deliberation | Public Deliberation: China 2026 | En préparation | |
| GRA Capital Readiness | Capital Readiness: China 2026 | En préparation | |
| Standards Progress | No edition in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Academy Capability | No edition in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Index Measurement | Measurement: China 2026 | En préparation |
Calendar · 2026 Baseline
- 01Call opensset by the editor
- 02Contribution closeset by the editor
- 03Clôture des preuves30 September 2026
- 04Desk review and releaseset by the editor
- 05Collection compilationset by the editor
- 06Collection releaseset by the editor
- 07Rectificatifsafter release, as needed
Evidence cut NQ-CHN-2026-Q0-1. Next cycles: Q1 2027, Q2 2027, Q3 2027, Q4 2027; their dates are set by the editor.
07 · Take part
Read it, improve it, cite it.
- LireThe edition, chapter by chapter, with every source.
- ContribuerSend evidence, a source or a method before the next cut.
- ExamenJoin the stewardship review of this edition.
- CiteAPA, Chicago, BibTeX, RIS and the house style, as a draft.
- PDFThe signed PDF is issued at release; print the complete edition today.
Journal des corrections
| Version | Date | État | Variation | Notice |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NR-COUNTRY-CHN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 | October 2026 | DRAFT | Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition, | aucun |
Data gaps3What the repository does not hold yet, and the source proposed for each
| Écart | Shown here as | Proposed source |
|---|---|---|
| Exposure values per hazard (people, assets, hectares) | the edition’s own risk objects, without values | the Index country profile once the Index releases values, risksindex.com/chn/ |
| The NHS-1 hazard types and their assignment to this edition’s risk objects | an editorial reading of the hazard words | the NHS-1 type assignment through the Registry |
| Infrastructure in the coupling matrix | Infrastructure marked not assessed | an Infrastructure row and column in the edition matrix at the next cut |
Send evidence or a correction on China.
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