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China 2026

China

China enters 2027 with 1,404.89 million people, a population that fell by 3.39 million in 2025 and in which 15.9% are aged 65 or over. The climate is moving visibly: 2025 tied 2024 as the warmest year since 1951 at 10.9 °C, the national average of hot days was the highest since 1961, and the rainy season in North China set records for both rainfall and duration.

Read the editionHazard exposure
Findings
12
each with its status and source
Sectors with findings
5 of 6
Infrastructure not assessed
Risk objects
4
order carries no rank
Sources
46
Evidence close 30 September 2026

01 · Readings

China in six readings.

Six readings that frame the China baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

  • 1,404.89millionpopulation, end-2025 [1]
  • 15.9%aged 65 or over, 2025 [1]
  • 15,536Mt CO₂eemissions excl. land use, 2024 [9]
  • 54.8%coal share of electricity, 2025 [4]
  • 24.0%net energy imports as share of energy use, 2024 [10]
  • 31unitsprovincial-level on the mainland [3]

02 · Sectors

Six sectors, one hexagon.

Water first, then Energy, Infrastructure, Food, Health and Biodiversity. Each count is the findings of this edition in that sector: coverage of the evidence, never a score. Infrastructure is not assessed: the edition holds no Infrastructure finding and its coupling matrix does not assess it.

  1. WATWater1 finding

    1,992 m³ Renewable internal freshwater per person, 2022. Reported

    About 1,990 m³ of renewable freshwater per person; rain is uneven in space and time; floods and scarcity coexist.

  2. ENEEnergy2 findings

    54.8% Coal share of electricity generation, 2025. Reported

    Coal 54.8% of electricity; wind and solar fast-growing at 21.9%.

  3. INFInfrastructurenot assessed

    Dense networks and underground spaces; failures in flood events documented.

  4. FOOFood1 finding

    714.88 million t Grain output, 2025. Reported

    Grain output 714.88 million t; cereal imports forecast well below average.

  5. HLTHealth1 finding

    15.9% Population aged 65 or over, 2025. Reported

    Life expectancy 78.0 years; population 15.9% aged 65 or over and shrinking.

  6. BIOBiodiversity1 finding

    15.6% Land in protected areas, 2025. Reported

    Protected land 15.6%, protected waters 4.8%, forest 24.0% of land.

Outside the six sectors: Climate forcing 3, Finance 1, SEI 1, Systemic 1.

03 · Hazard exposure

The hazards this edition reads.

The edition’s own risk objects, in its order, each read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and horizon. The hexagon marks the sectors the cascade reaches; the domain beside each is an editorial reading of its hazard words.

  • RSK-CHN-CLI-001

    Record heat and hot-day extremes

    EstimatedEQL 4

    Driver
    warming and persistent heat processes
    Exposure
    central and eastern provinces; 11 units had record annual temperature [3]
    Vulnerability
    older population (15.9% aged 65 or over) [1]
    Capacity
    not bound: heat alert and cooling-shelter records
    Cascade
    CLI → HLT → ENE peak
    Horizon
    seasonal

    Atmosphere and weather

  • RSK-CHN-CLI-002

    Extreme rain and river flooding

    ReportedEQL 4

    Driver
    more intense rainfall and long rainy seasons [3]
    Exposure
    dense plains, reservoirs and underground spaces [14]
    Vulnerability
    drainage and reservoir condition not bound
    Capacity
    red rainstorm warnings issued in 2021 [14]
    Cascade
    CLI → WAT → INF, HLT
    Horizon
    annual

    Water systems

  • RSK-CHN-SEI-003

    Strong earthquakes on the plateau and in basins

    ReportedEQL 3

    Driver
    continental collision tectonics
    Exposure
    Dingri 2025: 126 deaths by the evening of the event [15]
    Vulnerability
    building condition by province not bound
    Capacity
    not bound: seismic code and response records
    Cascade
    SEI → INF, HLT
    Horizon
    30 years

    Solid Earth

  • RSK-CHN-ENE-004

    Coal-led power under rising demand and import exposure

    EstimatedEQL 3

    Driver
    demand growth and heat peaks
    Exposure
    power, industry, households
    Vulnerability
    coal 54.8% of electricity; net energy imports 24.0% of energy use [4] [10]
    Capacity
    1,842 GW of wind and solar installed [1]
    Cascade
    ENE → WAT, HLT, FOO
    Horizon
    1 to 5 years

    Atmosphere and weather

Scenario · SCN-CHN-FLD-01

Extreme rain on a dense plain in a hot summer

Under this scenario, results describe a conditional season under stated assumptions. It is not a forecast, and no intervention described here has been carried out.

2 of 12 findings name a hazard in their text. Show them

  1. 1CLI → INFstreets, tunnels and metro lines flood
  2. 2CLI → WATrivers exceed warning levels; reservoirs and levees threatened
  3. 3INF → HLTpeople trapped in underground spaces; ambulances delayed
  4. 4CLI → FOOstanding water and lodging damage crops
  5. 5CLI → HLTa preceding hot spell raises the base load on health services
  6. 6INF → ENEsubstations and pumping stations at risk

04 · Couplings

How the sectors carry risk into each other.

The China matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

Coupling matrix, from row to column
FromWATENEFOOHLTBIO
WAT·StrongStrongModerateStrong
ENEModerate·StrongStrongModerate
FOOModerateWeak·StrongStrong
HLTWeakWeakModerate·Weak
BIOStrongModerateStrongModerate·

Water: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Energy: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Food: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Health: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Biodiversity: 4 couplings out, 4 in. Infrastructure is not in the coupling matrix: none of the edition matrices types it, so it carries no value.

Cascade paths, in the edition’s order

  1. CLI → WAT → INFextreme rain floods streets, metro trains and road tunnelsReported
  2. CLI → HLTrecord hot days load health services and cooling demandEstimated
  3. SEI → HLTa strong plateau earthquake causes mass casualtiesReported
  4. CLI → FOOunseasonal autumn rain damages grain quality and delays sowingReported
  5. CLI → ENE → HLTheat raises cooling demand on a coal-led power systemEstimated

05 · Findings

Every finding of China.

Search, filter by sector, system or status, and sort. The address bar keeps the view, so a filtered list can be shared. Every row opens the finding at its source.

All 12 findings

Findings of China
IDEditionSector or systemStatusStatement
CLI-001ChinaCLI Climate forcing ReportedThe national mean temperature was 10.9 °C in 2025, 1.0 °C above the 1991 to 2020 normal and tied with 2024 as the highest since 1951; hot days averaged 16.5, the most since 1961.
CLI-002ChinaCLI Climate forcing ReportedNorth China had the highest rainy-season rainfall and the longest rainy season on record in 2025, and the Haihe basin had its third-largest annual rainfall.
FIN-003ChinaFIN Finance ReportedMeteorological disasters in 2025 left 628 people dead or missing and caused 231.78 billion yuan of direct loss, 26.3% fewer deaths and missing and 28.8% less loss than the 2015 to 2024 average.
SEI-004ChinaSEI SEI ReportedThe Dingri (Tibet) earthquake of 7 January 2025 had killed 126 people by that evening, according to official reports.
WAT-005ChinaWAT Water ReportedThe 2021 Henan flood left 398 people dead or missing and affected 14.786 million, with 120.06 billion yuan of direct loss; the Zhengzhou station recorded 201.9 mm in one hour.
ENE-006ChinaENE Energy ReportedCoal supplied 54.8% of electricity in 2025 and 51.4% of total energy consumption, while wind and solar supplied 21.9% of electricity.
ENE-007ChinaENE Energy EstimatedWind and solar capacity reached about 1,842 GW at the end of 2025, about 51% of the 3,600 GW the 2035 contribution strives for (sum and ratio ESTIMATED).
CLI-008ChinaCLI Climate forcing ReportedEmissions excluding land use were 15,536 Mt CO₂e in 2024, 0.8% above 2023 (ESTIMATED change); the 2035 aim is net emissions 7 to 10% below peak levels, and the peak year is not established.
FOO-009ChinaFOO Food ReportedGrain output was 714.88 million tonnes in 2025; the FAO records 657.5 million tonnes of cereals and cereal imports well below average for 2025/26.
HLT-010ChinaHLT Health ReportedThe population fell by 3.39 million to 1,404.89 million in 2025; 15.9% were aged 65 or over and births were 7.92 million.
BIO-011ChinaBIO Biodiversity ReportedProtected areas covered 15.6% of land and 4.8% of territorial waters in 2025, and forest 24.0% of land in 2024, against a global 30% target for 2030.
SYS-012ChinaSYS Systemic Expert inputThe leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is extreme rain on a dense plain in a hot summer that cuts roads, underground transport, water and care together.
The full ledger, without scripts

06 · Editions and calendar

The desks’ editions for China.

The desks’ editions for China
DeskEditionStateIdentifier
GCRI Systems EvidenceChina 2026Drafted, in stewardship reviewNR-COUNTRY-CHN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
GRF Public DeliberationPublic Deliberation: China 2026In preparation
GRA Capital ReadinessCapital Readiness: China 2026In preparation
Standards ProgressNo edition in the 2026 Baseline cycleNot in this cycle
Academy CapabilityNo edition in the 2026 Baseline cycleNot in this cycle
Index MeasurementMeasurement: China 2026In preparation

Calendar · 2026 Baseline

  1. 01Call opensset by the editor
  2. 02Contribution closeset by the editor
  3. 03Evidence close30 September 2026
  4. 04Desk review and releaseset by the editor
  5. 05Collection compilationset by the editor
  6. 06Collection releaseset by the editor
  7. 07Correctionsafter release, as needed

Evidence cut NQ-CHN-2026-Q0-1. Next cycles: Q1 2027, Q2 2027, Q3 2027, Q4 2027; their dates are set by the editor.

07 · Take part

Read it, improve it, cite it.

Corrections log

Versions and corrections
VersionDateStateChangeNotice
NR-COUNTRY-CHN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026DRAFTBaseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,none
Data gaps3What the repository does not hold yet, and the source proposed for each
Data gaps and proposed sources
GapShown here asProposed source
Exposure values per hazard (people, assets, hectares)the edition’s own risk objects, without valuesthe Index country profile once the Index releases values, risksindex.com/chn/
The NHS-1 hazard types and their assignment to this edition’s risk objectsan editorial reading of the hazard wordsthe NHS-1 type assignment through the Registry
Infrastructure in the coupling matrixInfrastructure marked not assessedan Infrastructure row and column in the edition matrix at the next cut
ReportsContribute

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