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China 2026

चीन

China enters 2027 with 1,404.89 million people, a population that fell by 3.39 million in 2025 and in which 15.9% are aged 65 or over. The climate is moving visibly: 2025 tied 2024 as the warmest year since 1951 at 10.9 °C, the national average of hot days was the highest since 1961, and the rainy season in North China set records for both rainfall and duration.

Read the editionसंकट जोखिम-संपर्क
निष्कर्ष
12
each with its status and source
Sectors with findings
5 of 6
Infrastructure not assessed
Risk objects
4
order carries no rank
स्रोत
46
Evidence close 30 September 2026

01 · Readings

China in six readings.

Six readings that frame the China baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

  • 1,404.89millionpopulation, end-2025 [1]
  • 15.9%aged 65 or over, 2025 [1]
  • 15,536Mt CO₂eemissions excl. land use, 2024 [9]
  • 54.8%coal share of electricity, 2025 [4]
  • 24.0%net energy imports as share of energy use, 2024 [10]
  • 31unitsprovincial-level on the mainland [3]

02 · Sectors

Six sectors, one hexagon.

Water first, then Energy, Infrastructure, Food, Health and Biodiversity. Each count is the findings of this edition in that sector: coverage of the evidence, never a score. Infrastructure is not assessed: the edition holds no Infrastructure finding and its coupling matrix does not assess it.

  1. WATजल1 finding

    1,992 m³ Renewable internal freshwater per person, 2022. रिपोर्ट किया गया

    About 1,990 m³ of renewable freshwater per person; rain is uneven in space and time; floods and scarcity coexist.

  2. ENEऊर्जा2 findings

    54.8% Coal share of electricity generation, 2025. रिपोर्ट किया गया

    Coal 54.8% of electricity; wind and solar fast-growing at 21.9%.

  3. INFअवसंरचनाnot assessed

    Dense networks and underground spaces; failures in flood events documented.

  4. FOOखाद्य1 finding

    714.88 million t Grain output, 2025. रिपोर्ट किया गया

    Grain output 714.88 million t; cereal imports forecast well below average.

  5. HLTस्वास्थ्य1 finding

    15.9% Population aged 65 or over, 2025. रिपोर्ट किया गया

    Life expectancy 78.0 years; population 15.9% aged 65 or over and shrinking.

  6. BIOजैव विविधता1 finding

    15.6% Land in protected areas, 2025. रिपोर्ट किया गया

    Protected land 15.6%, protected waters 4.8%, forest 24.0% of land.

Outside the six sectors: Climate forcing 3, Finance 1, SEI 1, Systemic 1.

03 · Hazard exposure

The hazards this edition reads.

The edition’s own risk objects, in its order, each read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and horizon. The hexagon marks the sectors the cascade reaches; the domain beside each is an editorial reading of its hazard words.

  • RSK-CHN-CLI-001

    Record heat and hot-day extremes

    अनुमानितEQL 4

    चालक
    warming and persistent heat processes
    जोखिम-अनावरण
    central and eastern provinces; 11 units had record annual temperature [3]
    भेद्यता
    older population (15.9% aged 65 or over) [1]
    क्षमता
    not bound: heat alert and cooling-shelter records
    कैस्केड
    CLI → HLT → ENE peak
    क्षितिज
    seasonal

    वायुमंडल और मौसम

  • RSK-CHN-CLI-002

    Extreme rain and river flooding

    रिपोर्ट किया गयाEQL 4

    चालक
    more intense rainfall and long rainy seasons [3]
    जोखिम-अनावरण
    dense plains, reservoirs and underground spaces [14]
    भेद्यता
    drainage and reservoir condition not bound
    क्षमता
    red rainstorm warnings issued in 2021 [14]
    कैस्केड
    CLI → WAT → INF, HLT
    क्षितिज
    वार्षिक

    जल प्रणालियाँ

  • RSK-CHN-SEI-003

    Strong earthquakes on the plateau and in basins

    रिपोर्ट किया गयाEQL 3

    चालक
    continental collision tectonics
    जोखिम-अनावरण
    Dingri 2025: 126 deaths by the evening of the event [15]
    भेद्यता
    building condition by province not bound
    क्षमता
    not bound: seismic code and response records
    कैस्केड
    SEI → INF, HLT
    क्षितिज
    30 years

    ठोस पृथ्वी

  • RSK-CHN-ENE-004

    Coal-led power under rising demand and import exposure

    अनुमानितEQL 3

    चालक
    demand growth and heat peaks
    जोखिम-अनावरण
    power, industry, households
    भेद्यता
    coal 54.8% of electricity; net energy imports 24.0% of energy use [4] [10]
    क्षमता
    1,842 GW of wind and solar installed [1]
    कैस्केड
    ENE → WAT, HLT, FOO
    क्षितिज
    1 to 5 years

    वायुमंडल और मौसम

Scenario · SCN-CHN-FLD-01

Extreme rain on a dense plain in a hot summer

Under this scenario, results describe a conditional season under stated assumptions. It is not a forecast, and no intervention described here has been carried out.

2 of 12 findings name a hazard in their text. Show them

  1. 1CLI → INFstreets, tunnels and metro lines flood
  2. 2CLI → WATrivers exceed warning levels; reservoirs and levees threatened
  3. 3INF → HLTpeople trapped in underground spaces; ambulances delayed
  4. 4CLI → FOOstanding water and lodging damage crops
  5. 5CLI → HLTa preceding hot spell raises the base load on health services
  6. 6INF → ENEsubstations and pumping stations at risk

04 · Couplings

How the sectors carry risk into each other.

The China matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core प्रणालियाँ. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

Coupling matrix, from row to column
सेWATENEFOOHLTBIO
WAT·StrongStrongमध्यमStrong
ENEमध्यम·StrongStrongमध्यम
FOOमध्यमWeak·StrongStrong
HLTWeakWeakमध्यम·Weak
BIOStrongमध्यमStrongमध्यम·

Water: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Energy: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Food: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Health: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Biodiversity: 4 couplings out, 4 in. Infrastructure is not in the coupling matrix: none of the edition matrices types it, so it carries no value.

Cascade paths, in the edition’s order

  1. CLI → WAT → INFअत्यधिक वर्षा floods streets, metro trains and road tunnelsरिपोर्ट किया गया
  2. CLI → HLTrecord hot days load health services and cooling demandअनुमानित
  3. SEI → HLTa strong plateau भूकंप causes mass casualtiesरिपोर्ट किया गया
  4. CLI → FOOunseasonal autumn rain damages grain quality and delays sowingरिपोर्ट किया गया
  5. CLI → ENE → HLTheat raises cooling demand on a coal-led power systemअनुमानित

05 · Findings

Every finding of China.

Search, filter by sector, system or status, and sort. The address bar keeps the view, so a filtered list can be shared. Every row opens the finding at its source.

All 12 findings

Findings of China
IDसंस्करणSector or systemस्थितिStatement
CLI-001चीनCLI Climate forcing रिपोर्ट किया गयाThe national mean temperature was 10.9 °C in 2025, 1.0 °C above the 1991 to 2020 normal and tied with 2024 as the highest since 1951; hot days averaged 16.5, the most since 1961.
CLI-002चीनCLI Climate forcing रिपोर्ट किया गयाNorth China had the highest rainy-season rainfall and the longest rainy season on record in 2025, and the Haihe basin had its third-largest annual rainfall.
FIN-003चीनFIN वित्त रिपोर्ट किया गयाMeteorological disasters in 2025 left 628 people dead or missing and caused 231.78 billion yuan of direct loss, 26.3% fewer deaths and missing and 28.8% less loss than the 2015 to 2024 average.
SEI-004चीनSEI SEI रिपोर्ट किया गयाThe Dingri (Tibet) भूकंप of 7 January 2025 had killed 126 people by that evening, according to official reports.
WAT-005चीनWAT जल रिपोर्ट किया गयाThe 2021 Henan flood left 398 people dead or missing and affected 14.786 million, with 120.06 billion yuan of direct loss; the Zhengzhou station recorded 201.9 mm in one hour.
ENE-006चीनENE ऊर्जा रिपोर्ट किया गयाCoal supplied 54.8% of electricity in 2025 and 51.4% of total energy consumption, while wind and solar supplied 21.9% of electricity.
ENE-007चीनENE ऊर्जा अनुमानितWind and solar capacity reached about 1,842 GW at the end of 2025, about 51% of the 3,600 GW the 2035 contribution strives for (sum and ratio ESTIMATED).
CLI-008चीनCLI Climate forcing रिपोर्ट किया गयाEmissions excluding land use were 15,536 Mt CO₂e in 2024, 0.8% above 2023 (ESTIMATED change); the 2035 aim is net emissions 7 to 10% below peak levels, and the peak year is not established.
FOO-009चीनFOO खाद्य रिपोर्ट किया गयाGrain output was 714.88 million tonnes in 2025; the FAO records 657.5 million tonnes of cereals and cereal imports well below average for 2025/26.
HLT-010चीनHLT स्वास्थ्य रिपोर्ट किया गयाThe population fell by 3.39 million to 1,404.89 million in 2025; 15.9% were aged 65 or over and births were 7.92 million.
BIO-011चीनBIO जैव विविधता रिपोर्ट किया गयाProtected areas covered 15.6% of land and 4.8% of territorial waters in 2025, and forest 24.0% of land in 2024, against a global 30% target for 2030.
SYS-012चीनSYS प्रणालीगत Expert inputThe leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is अत्यधिक वर्षा on a dense plain in a hot summer that cuts roads, underground transport, water and care together.
The full ledger, without scripts

06 · Editions and calendar

The desks’ editions for China.

The desks’ editions for China
डेस्कसंस्करणस्थितिपहचानकर्ता
GCRI Systems EvidenceChina 2026Drafted, in stewardship reviewNR-COUNTRY-CHN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
GRF Public DeliberationPublic Deliberation: China 2026तैयारी में
GRA Capital ReadinessCapital Readiness: China 2026तैयारी में
Standards ProgressNo edition in the 2026 Baseline cycleNot in this cycle
Academy CapabilityNo edition in the 2026 Baseline cycleNot in this cycle
Index MeasurementMeasurement: China 2026तैयारी में

Calendar · 2026 Baseline

  1. 01Call opensset by the editor
  2. 02Contribution closeset by the editor
  3. 03साक्ष्य समापन30 September 2026
  4. 04Desk review and releaseset by the editor
  5. 05Collection compilationset by the editor
  6. 06Collection releaseset by the editor
  7. 07सुधारafter release, as needed

Evidence cut NQ-CHN-2026-Q0-1. Next cycles: Q1 2027, Q2 2027, Q3 2027, Q4 2027; their dates are set by the editor.

07 · Take part

Read it, improve it, cite it.

सुधार लॉग

Versions and corrections
संस्करणतिथिस्थितिबदलावसूचना
NR-COUNTRY-CHN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026DRAFTBaseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,कोई नहीं
Data gaps3What the repository does not hold yet, and the source proposed for each
Data gaps and proposed sources
अंतरालShown here asProposed source
Exposure values per hazard (people, assets, hectares)the edition’s own risk objects, without valuesthe Index country profile once the Index releases values, risksindex.com/chn/
The NHS-1 hazard types and their assignment to this edition’s risk objectsan editorial reading of the hazard wordsthe NHS-1 type assignment through the Registry
Infrastructure in the coupling matrixInfrastructure marked not assessedan Infrastructure row and column in the edition matrix at the next cut
रिपोर्टयोगदान दें

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