Reports · GCRI · Country profile
United States 2026
Estados Unidos
The United States enters 2027 as the country carrying the largest share of the world’s recorded disaster losses. North America accounted for US$133 billion of the US$224 billion in global natural-disaster losses in 2025, about 70% of it insured, led by the Los Angeles wildfires at about US$53 billion.
- Constatações
- 12
- each with its status and source
- Sectors with findings
- 5 of 6
- Infrastructure not assessed
- Risk objects
- 4
- order carries no rank
- Fontes
- 40
- Evidence close 30 September 2026
01 · Readings
United States in six readings.
Six readings that frame the baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.
02 · Sectors
Six sectors, one hexagon.
Water first, then Energy, Infrastructure, Food, Health and Biodiversity. Each count is the findings of this edition in that sector: coverage of the evidence, never a score. Infrastructure is not assessed: the edition holds no Infrastructure finding and its coupling matrix does not assess it.
- WATÁgua2 findings
322 bn gal/day Total freshwater and saline withdrawals, 2015. □Declarado
Ample in the East, tight in the West; Colorado River under escassez; major aquifers depleting.
- ENEEnergia1 finding
4.4% Data centres’ share of US electricity, 2023. □Declarado
Gas-led power with growing renewables; reliability stressed in extremes; data-centre load rising.
- INFinfraestruturanot assessed
Ageing grids, water sistemas and roads; critical functions defined nationally.
- FOOAlimentação1 finding
13.5% Households food insecure, 2023. □Declarado
A leading producer and exporter; 13.5% of households food insecure in 2023.
- HLTSaúde1 finding
2,325 deaths Heat-related deaths, 2023. □Declarado
Record heat deaths in 2023; smoke and storms load health services.
- BIOBiodiversidade1 finding
40% Animal species at risk of extinction, 2023. □Declarado
About 40% of animal species at risk; incêndios florestais and land use the fastest pressures.
Outside the six sectors: Climate forcing 3, Finance 2, Systemic 1.
03 · Hazard exposure
The hazards this edition reads.
The edition’s own risk objects, in its order, each read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and horizon. The hexagon marks the sectors the cascade reaches; the domain beside each is an editorial reading of its hazard words.
RSK-USA-CLI-001
Wildfire at the urban edge, with insurance retreat
□DeclaradoEQL 4
- Fator
- heat, drought and wind; longer fire seasons
- Exposição
- wildland–urban interface communities
- Vulnerabilidade
- rising premiums and non-renewals [21]
- Capacidade
- fire services; building codes; residual insurers
- Cascata
- CLI → BIO → HLT · CLI → FIN
- Horizonte
- seasonal · 1 and 5 years
RSK-USA-ENE-002
Grid failure in heat or cold extremes
□DeclaradoEQL 4
- Fator
- calor extremo and cold; new load growth
- Exposição
- regions with thin reserve margins [32]
- Vulnerabilidade
- winterisation gaps; gas–power interdependence [31]
- Capacidade
- interconnection; demand response; storage
- Cascata
- ENE → WAT → HLT
- Horizonte
- seasonal
RSK-USA-WAT-003
Western drought and Colorado River shortage
□DeclaradoEQL 4
- Fator
- low flows; heat; over-allocation
- Exposição
- cities, farms and hydropower of the Southwest
- Vulnerabilidade
- reservoirs near minimum levels
- Capacidade
- escassez rules; conservation; groundwater
- Cascata
- WAT → ENE, FOO, cities
- Horizonte
- 1–5 years
RSK-USA-CLI-004
Compound hurricane, surge and inland flooding
□DeclaradoEQL 3
- Fator
- warmer oceans; heavier rainfall
- Exposição
- Gulf and Atlantic coasts; inland river valleys
- Vulnerabilidade
- low flood-insurance take-up [40]
- Capacidade
- forecasting and evacuation; flood insurance
- Cascata
- CLI → INF → ENE, HLT, FIN
- Horizonte
- anual
Scenario · SCN-USA-HFG-01
Western heat, fire and grid summer
Under this scenario, results describe a conditional season under stated assumptions. It is not a forecast, and no intervention described here has been carried out.
3 of 12 findings name a hazard in their text. Show them
- 1CLI → WATheat and low flows cut reservoir and hydro output
- 2CLI → ENEpeak demand meets thin reserves; emergency alerts
- 3CLI → HLTheat deaths and emergency visits rise
- 4BIO → HLTincêndios florestais smoke over large cities
- 5ENE → INFpublic-safety power shut-offs to prevent ignition
- 6CLI → FINinsured losses and further non-renewals
04 · Couplings
How the sectors carry risk into each other.
The United States matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core sistemas. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.
| De | WAT | ENE | FOO | HLT | BIO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAT | · | Strong | Strong | Moderado | Strong |
| ENE | Moderado | · | Strong | Strong | Moderado |
| FOO | Moderado | Weak | · | Strong | Strong |
| HLT | Weak | Weak | Moderado | · | Weak |
| BIO | Strong | Moderado | Strong | Moderado | · |
Water: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Energy: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Food: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Health: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Biodiversity: 4 couplings out, 4 in. Infrastructure is not in the coupling matrix: none of the edition matrices types it, so it carries no value.
Cascade paths, in the edition’s order
- ENE → WAT → HLTcold or heat fails the grid; water pressure and care settings fail with it□Declarado
- CLI → BIO → HLTincêndios florestais smoke loads health services far from the fire□Declarado
- CLI → FINincêndios florestais e furacões losses drive insurance retreat□Declarado
- WAT → FOOaquifer decline and drought cut irrigated production▲Inferred
- AIC → ENEdata-centre load narrows reliability margins in extremes▲Inferred
05 · Findings
Every finding of United States.
Search, filter by sector, system or status, and sort. The address bar keeps the view, so a filtered list can be shared. Every row opens the finding at its source.
All 12 findings
| ID | Edição | Sector or system | Situação | Statement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLI-001 | Estados Unidos | CLI Climate forcing | □ Declarado | Gross greenhouse-gas emissions were 6,343 Mt CO₂e in 2022; net emissions were about 17% below 2005. |
| FIN-002 | Estados Unidos | FIN Finanças | □ Declarado | North America carried US$133 billion of 2025’s US$224 billion in global disaster losses; about US$93 billion was insured. |
| FIN-003 | Estados Unidos | FIN Finanças | □ Declarado | The January 2025 Los Angeles wildfires caused about US$53 billion in losses, US$40 billion insured, the costliest incêndios florestais disaster on record. |
| CLI-004 | Estados Unidos | CLI Climate forcing | □ Declarado | The contiguous United States has warmed about 1.4 °C since 1970, faster than the global average. |
| CLI-005 | Estados Unidos | CLI Climate forcing | □ Declarado | There were 27 billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in 2024, after a record 28 in 2023. |
| ENE-006 | Estados Unidos | ENE Energia | □ Declarado | Data centres used about 4.4% of US electricity in 2023, with 6.7–12% projected for 2028. |
| WAT-007 | Estados Unidos | WAT Água | □ Declarado | Water withdrawals were about 322 billion gallons a day in 2015; thermoelectric power took 41% and irrigation 37%. |
| WAT-008 | Estados Unidos | WAT Água | □ Declarado | The first-ever escassez on the Colorado River was declared in August 2021 for the lower basin. |
| HLT-009 | Estados Unidos | HLT Saúde | □ Declarado | Heat-related deaths reached a record 2,325 in 2023. |
| FOO-010 | Estados Unidos | FOO Alimentação | □ Declarado | 13.5% of US households were food insecure in 2023. |
| BIO-011 | Estados Unidos | BIO Biodiversidade | □ Declarado | About 40% of animal species and 34% of plant species in the United States are at risk of extinction. |
| SYS-012 | Estados Unidos | SYS Sistêmico | ◎ Expert input | The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing runs from Western heat and drought through incêndios florestais and grid stress into health, water and insurance availability. |
06 · Editions and calendar
The desks’ editions for United States.
| Escritório | Edição | Situação | Identificador |
|---|---|---|---|
| GCRI Systems Evidence | United States 2026 | Drafted, in stewardship review | NR-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 |
| GRF Public Deliberation | Public Deliberation: United States 2026 | Em preparação | |
| GRA Capital Readiness | Capital Readiness: United States 2026 | Em preparação | |
| Standards Progress | No edition in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Academy Capability | No edition in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Index Measurement | Measurement: United States 2026 | Em preparação |
Calendar · 2026 Baseline
- 01Call opensset by the editor
- 02Contribution closeset by the editor
- 03Fecho das evidências30 September 2026
- 04Desk review and releaseset by the editor
- 05Collection compilationset by the editor
- 06Collection releaseset by the editor
- 07Correçõesafter release, as needed
Evidence cut NQ-USA-2026-Q0-1. Next cycles: Q1 2027, Q2 2027, Q3 2027, Q4 2027; their dates are set by the editor.
07 · Take part
Read it, improve it, cite it.
- LerThe edition, chapter by chapter, with every source.
- ContribuirSend evidence, a source or a method before the next cut.
- AnáliseJoin the stewardship review of this edition.
- CiteAPA, Chicago, BibTeX, RIS and the house style, as a draft.
- PDFThe signed PDF is issued at release; print the complete edition today.
Corrections log
| Versão | Date | Situação | Variação | Notice |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NR-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 | October 2026 | DRAFT | Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition, | nenhum |
Data gaps3What the repository does not hold yet, and the source proposed for each
| Lacuna | Shown here as | Proposed source |
|---|---|---|
| Exposure values per hazard (people, assets, hectares) | the edition’s own risk objects, without values | the Index country profile once the Index releases values, risksindex.com/usa/ |
| The NHS-1 hazard types and their assignment to this edition’s risk objects | an editorial reading of the hazard words | the NHS-1 type assignment through the Registry |
| Infrastructure in the coupling matrix | Infrastructure marked not assessed | an Infrastructure row and column in the edition matrix at the next cut |
Send evidence or a correction on United States.
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