Reports · GCRI · Country profile
United States 2026
美国
The United States enters 2027 as the country carrying the largest share of the world’s recorded disaster losses. North America accounted for US$133 billion of the US$224 billion in global natural-disaster losses in 2025, about 70% of it insured, led by the Los Angeles wildfires at about US$53 billion.
- 发现
- 12
- each with its status and source
- Sectors with findings
- 5 of 6
- Infrastructure not assessed
- Risk objects
- 4
- order carries no rank
- 来源
- 40
- Evidence close 30 September 2026
01 · Readings
United States in six readings.
Six readings that frame the baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.
02 · Sectors
Six sectors, one hexagon.
Water first, then Energy, Infrastructure, Food, Health and Biodiversity. Each count is the findings of this edition in that sector: coverage of the evidence, never a score. Infrastructure is not assessed: the edition holds no Infrastructure finding and its coupling matrix does not assess it.
- WAT水2 findings
322 bn gal/day Total freshwater and saline withdrawals, 2015. □报告值
Ample in the East, tight in the West; Colorado River under 短缺; major aquifers depleting.
- ENE能源1 finding
4.4% Data centres’ share of US electricity, 2023. □报告值
Gas-led power with growing renewables; reliability stressed in extremes; data-centre load rising.
- INF基础设施not assessed
Ageing grids, water 系统 and roads; critical functions defined nationally.
- FOO食品1 finding
13.5% Households food insecure, 2023. □报告值
A leading producer and exporter; 13.5% of households food insecure in 2023.
- HLT卫生1 finding
2,325 deaths Heat-related deaths, 2023. □报告值
Record heat deaths in 2023; smoke and storms load health services.
- BIO生物多样性1 finding
40% Animal species at risk of extinction, 2023. □报告值
About 40% of animal species at risk; 野火 and land use the fastest pressures.
Outside the six sectors: Climate forcing 3, Finance 2, Systemic 1.
03 · Hazard exposure
The hazards this edition reads.
The edition’s own risk objects, in its order, each read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and horizon. The hexagon marks the sectors the cascade reaches; the domain beside each is an editorial reading of its hazard words.
RSK-USA-CLI-001
Wildfire at the urban edge, with insurance retreat
□报告值EQL 4
- 驱动因素
- heat, drought and wind; longer fire seasons
- 风险暴露
- wildland–urban interface communities
- 脆弱性
- rising premiums and non-renewals [21]
- 能力
- fire services; building codes; residual insurers
- 级联
- CLI → BIO → HLT · CLI → FIN
- 地平线
- seasonal · 1 and 5 years
RSK-USA-ENE-002
Grid failure in heat or cold extremes
□报告值EQL 4
RSK-USA-WAT-003
Western drought and Colorado River shortage
□报告值EQL 4
- 驱动因素
- low flows; heat; over-allocation
- 风险暴露
- cities, farms and hydropower of the Southwest
- 脆弱性
- reservoirs near minimum levels
- 能力
- 短缺 rules; conservation; groundwater
- 级联
- WAT → ENE, FOO, cities
- 地平线
- 1–5 years
RSK-USA-CLI-004
Compound hurricane, surge and inland flooding
□报告值EQL 3
- 驱动因素
- warmer oceans; heavier rainfall
- 风险暴露
- Gulf and Atlantic coasts; inland river valleys
- 脆弱性
- low flood-insurance take-up [40]
- 能力
- forecasting and evacuation; flood insurance
- 级联
- CLI → INF → ENE, HLT, FIN
- 地平线
- 年度
Scenario · SCN-USA-HFG-01
Western heat, fire and grid summer
Under this scenario, results describe a conditional season under stated assumptions. It is not a forecast, and no intervention described here has been carried out.
3 of 12 findings name a hazard in their text. Show them
- 1CLI → WATheat and low flows cut reservoir and hydro output
- 2CLI → ENEpeak demand meets thin reserves; emergency alerts
- 3CLI → HLTheat deaths and emergency visits rise
- 4BIO → HLT野火 smoke over large cities
- 5ENE → INFpublic-safety power shut-offs to prevent ignition
- 6CLI → FINinsured losses and further non-renewals
04 · Couplings
How the sectors carry risk into each other.
The United States matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core 系统. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.
| 从 | WAT | ENE | FOO | HLT | BIO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAT | · | Strong | Strong | 中等 | Strong |
| ENE | 中等 | · | Strong | Strong | 中等 |
| FOO | 中等 | Weak | · | Strong | Strong |
| HLT | Weak | Weak | 中等 | · | Weak |
| BIO | Strong | 中等 | Strong | 中等 | · |
Water: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Energy: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Food: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Health: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Biodiversity: 4 couplings out, 4 in. Infrastructure is not in the coupling matrix: none of the edition matrices types it, so it carries no value.
Cascade paths, in the edition’s order
- ENE → WAT → HLTcold or heat fails the grid; water pressure and care settings fail with it□报告值
- CLI → BIO → HLT野火 smoke loads health services far from the fire□报告值
- CLI → FIN野火 与 飓风 losses drive insurance retreat□报告值
- WAT → FOOaquifer decline and drought cut irrigated production▲Inferred
- AIC → ENEdata-centre load narrows reliability margins in extremes▲Inferred
05 · Findings
Every finding of United States.
Search, filter by sector, system or status, and sort. The address bar keeps the view, so a filtered list can be shared. Every row opens the finding at its source.
All 12 findings
| ID | 版本 | Sector or system | 状态 | Statement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLI-001 | 美国 | CLI Climate forcing | □ 报告值 | Gross greenhouse-gas emissions were 6,343 Mt CO₂e in 2022; net emissions were about 17% below 2005. |
| FIN-002 | 美国 | FIN 金融 | □ 报告值 | North America carried US$133 billion of 2025’s US$224 billion in global disaster losses; about US$93 billion was insured. |
| FIN-003 | 美国 | FIN 金融 | □ 报告值 | The January 2025 Los Angeles wildfires caused about US$53 billion in losses, US$40 billion insured, the costliest 野火 disaster on record. |
| CLI-004 | 美国 | CLI Climate forcing | □ 报告值 | The contiguous United States has warmed about 1.4 °C since 1970, faster than the global average. |
| CLI-005 | 美国 | CLI Climate forcing | □ 报告值 | There were 27 billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in 2024, after a record 28 in 2023. |
| ENE-006 | 美国 | ENE 能源 | □ 报告值 | Data centres used about 4.4% of US electricity in 2023, with 6.7–12% projected for 2028. |
| WAT-007 | 美国 | WAT 水 | □ 报告值 | Water withdrawals were about 322 billion gallons a day in 2015; thermoelectric power took 41% and irrigation 37%. |
| WAT-008 | 美国 | WAT 水 | □ 报告值 | The first-ever 短缺 on the Colorado River was declared in August 2021 for the lower basin. |
| HLT-009 | 美国 | HLT 卫生 | □ 报告值 | Heat-related deaths reached a record 2,325 in 2023. |
| FOO-010 | 美国 | FOO 食品 | □ 报告值 | 13.5% of US households were food insecure in 2023. |
| BIO-011 | 美国 | BIO 生物多样性 | □ 报告值 | About 40% of animal species and 34% of plant species in the United States are at risk of extinction. |
| SYS-012 | 美国 | SYS 系统性 | ◎ Expert input | The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing runs from Western heat and drought through 野火 and grid stress into health, water and insurance availability. |
06 · Editions and calendar
The desks’ editions for United States.
| 办事处 | 版本 | 状态 | 标识符 |
|---|---|---|---|
| GCRI Systems Evidence | United States 2026 | Drafted, in stewardship review | NR-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 |
| GRF Public Deliberation | Public Deliberation: United States 2026 | 筹备中 | |
| GRA Capital Readiness | Capital Readiness: United States 2026 | 筹备中 | |
| Standards Progress | No edition in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Academy Capability | No edition in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Index Measurement | Measurement: United States 2026 | 筹备中 |
Calendar · 2026 Baseline
- 01Call opensset by the editor
- 02Contribution closeset by the editor
- 03证据截止30 September 2026
- 04Desk review and releaseset by the editor
- 05Collection compilationset by the editor
- 06Collection releaseset by the editor
- 07更正after release, as needed
Evidence cut NQ-USA-2026-Q0-1. Next cycles: Q1 2027, Q2 2027, Q3 2027, Q4 2027; their dates are set by the editor.
07 · Take part
Read it, improve it, cite it.
- 阅读The edition, chapter by chapter, with every source.
- 贡献Send evidence, a source or a method before the next cut.
- 审核Join the stewardship review of this edition.
- CiteAPA, Chicago, BibTeX, RIS and the house style, as a draft.
- PDFThe signed PDF is issued at release; print the complete edition today.
更正记录
| 版本 | 日期 | 状态 | 变化 | 通知 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NR-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 | October 2026 | DRAFT | Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition, | 无 |
Data gaps3What the repository does not hold yet, and the source proposed for each
| 差距 | Shown here as | Proposed source |
|---|---|---|
| Exposure values per hazard (people, assets, hectares) | the edition’s own risk objects, without values | the Index country profile once the Index releases values, risksindex.com/usa/ |
| The NHS-1 hazard types and their assignment to this edition’s risk objects | an editorial reading of the hazard words | the NHS-1 type assignment through the Registry |
| Infrastructure in the coupling matrix | Infrastructure marked not assessed | an Infrastructure row and column in the edition matrix at the next cut |
Send evidence or a correction on United States.
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