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Senegal 2026

Senegal

Senegal (République du Sénégal) enters 2027 with 18.1 million residents at the 2023 census, 54.7% of them urban and 39.1% under 15. The economy grew 6.7% in 2025 as oil production began, while non-hydrocarbon growth was 2.2% and the IMF describes fiscal and debt vulnerabilities as elevated.

Read the editionHazard exposure
Matokeo ya uchunguzi
12
each with its status and source
Sectors with findings
5 of 6
Infrastructure not assessed
Risk objects
4
order carries no rank
Vyanzo
55
Evidence close 30 September 2026

01 · Readings

Senegal in six readings.

Six readings that frame the Senegal baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

  • 18.1millionpopulation, 2023 census [1]
  • 54.7%urban population, 2023 [1]
  • 39.1%aged under 15, 2023 [1]
  • 31.7Mt CO₂eemissions excl. land use, 2024 [7]
  • 82.9%access to electricity, 2024 [6]
  • 37.5%poverty at the national line, 2021 [4]

02 · Sectors

Six sectors, one hexagon.

Water first, then Energy, Infrastructure, Food, Health and Biodiversity. Each count is the findings of this edition in that sector: coverage of the evidence, never a score. Infrastructure is not assessed: the edition holds no Infrastructure finding and its coupling matrix does not assess it.

  1. WATMaji2 findings

    27.2% People using safely managed drinking water, 2024. Reported

    Basic drinking water 88.0%, safely managed 27.2%; basic sanitation 62.5%.

  2. ENENishati2 findings

    82.9% Access to electricity, 2024. Reported

    Access 82.9%; 85% of generation non-renewable; oil and gas now produced offshore.

  3. INFMiundombinunot assessed

    Drainage, roads and pipes cut by floods; grid losses of 16.5%.

  4. FOOChakula1 finding

    0.84 million People in Crisis or worse, projected June to August 2026, 2026. Reported

    Cereal harvest above average in 2024; 836,786 people projected in Crisis or worse.

  5. HLTAfya1 finding

    358 cases Confirmed Rift Valley fever cases, 20 Sep to 30 Oct, 2025. Reported

    Rift Valley fever outbreak with 28 deaths; life expectancy 68.9 years.

  6. BIOBioanuwai1 finding

    45.0 % of land Forest area, 2024. Reported

    Forest 45.0% of land; protected land 27.5%, protected waters 3.1%.

Outside the six sectors: Climate forcing 3, Finance 1, Systemic 1.

03 · Hazard exposure

The hazards this edition reads.

The edition’s own risk objects, in its order, each read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and horizon. The hexagon marks the sectors the cascade reaches; the domain beside each is an editorial reading of its hazard words.

  • RSK-SEN-CLI-001

    Heavy-rain flooding in a dense urban area

    ReportedEQL 3

    Driver
    intense rainfall over low-lying, built-up land
    Exposure
    Touba: 70,000 people exposed; Lac Rose area: 20,000 vulnerable [24]
    Vulnerability
    schools, roads and homes flooded in 2025; 296 schools affected [25]
    Capacity
    national flood committee since 2019; regional emergency plans [25]
    Cascade
    CLI → INF, WAT, HLT
    Horizon
    annual

    Water systems

  • RSK-SEN-HLT-002

    Rift Valley fever in the river valley

    ReportedEQL 3

    Driver
    mosquito-borne spread among livestock and people
    Exposure
    Saint-Louis region held 78% of cases [22]
    Vulnerability
    358 confirmed cases and 28 deaths by 30 Oct 2025 [22]
    Capacity
    joint WHO, FAO and WOAH assessment; national response not bound
    Cascade
    HLT → FOO, FIN
    Horizon
    1–5 years

    No domain reading

  • RSK-SEN-ENE-003

    Fuel and supply exposure of the power system

    ReportedEQL 3

    Driver
    fuel-oil dependence and import exposure
    Exposure
    households, water works, clinics, industry
    Vulnerability
    imports 70% of primary energy supply [14]; oil 79% of electricity [15]
    Capacity
    domestic gas starting; conversion to gas not bound [19] [27]
    Cascade
    ENE → WAT, HLT, FIN
    Horizon
    1–5 years

    No domain reading

  • RSK-SEN-CLI-004

    Coastal erosion and sea-level rise

    ReportedEQL 3

    Driver
    sea-level rise and storm waves on a low coast
    Exposure
    half of people and two-thirds of GDP in coastal zones [19]
    Vulnerability
    75% of coastline at risk; losses 3.3% of GDP [19]
    Capacity
    coastal resilience projects exist; scope not bound [52]
    Cascade
    CLI → INF, WAT, FOO
    Horizon
    5–30 years

    Angahewa na hali ya hewa

Scenario · SCN-SEN-FLD-01

Urban flood with a water, power and clinic interruption

Under this scenario, results describe a conditional season under stated assumptions. It is not a forecast, and no intervention described here has been carried out.

2 of 12 findings name a hazard in their text. Show them

  1. 1CLI → INFheavy rain exceeds drainage; roads and schools are flooded
  2. 2INF → ENEflooded substations and access roads interrupt supply
  3. 3ENE → WATpumping and treatment lose power; unsafe sources are used
  4. 4WAT → HLTunsafe water and standing water raise exposure to disease
  5. 5INF → FOOcut roads delay food distribution to affected districts
  6. 6ENE → FINrepair and relief costs fall on the budget

04 · Couplings

How the sectors carry risk into each other.

The Senegal matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core mifumo. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

Coupling matrix, from row to column
FromWATENEFOOHLTBIO
WAT·StrongStrongModerateStrong
ENEModerate·StrongStrongModerate
FOOModerateWeak·StrongStrong
HLTWeakWeakModerate·Weak
BIOStrongModerateStrongModerate·

Water: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Energy: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Food: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Health: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Biodiversity: 4 couplings out, 4 in. Infrastructure is not in the coupling matrix: none of the edition matrices types it, so it carries no value.

Cascade paths, in the edition’s order

  1. CLI → INF → WATheavy rain overwhelms drainage and floods homes, roads and water pointsReported
  2. CLI → HLTriver and rain conditions favour outbreaks of vector-borne disease in the valleyInferred
  3. ENE → FINoil and gas output lifts growth, while fuel imports and subsidies weigh on the budgetReported
  4. CLI → FOOrain deficits and floods cut crops in parts of the north and eastReported
  5. ENE → WAT → HLTa power cut stops pumping and treatment, and clinics lose supplyInferred

05 · Findings

Every finding of Senegal.

Search, filter by sector, system or status, and sort. The address bar keeps the view, so a filtered list can be shared. Every row opens the finding at its source.

All 12 findings

Findings of Senegal
IDEditionSector or systemHaliStatement
CLI-001SenegalCLI Climate forcing ReportedGreenhouse-gas emissions were about 31.7 Mt CO₂e in 2024 excluding land use: carbon dioxide 14.2 Mt, methane 12.3 Mt and nitrous oxide 3.7 Mt; agriculture supplied 9.4 Mt of the methane. Land use was a net carbon-dioxide sink of 13 Mt in 2023.
CLI-002SenegalCLI Climate forcing ReportedThe 2020 contribution targets a 2030 cut of 7% unconditional and 29.5% conditional below business as usual. A third contribution was validated nationally on 5 April 2026 with a reported range of 13 to 17%; its submission was not confirmed at evidence close.
ENE-003SenegalENE Nishati ReportedAccess to electricity was 82.9% in 2024, up from 67.9% in 2022, with 95.7% in urban and 67.1% in rural areas; transmission and distribution losses were 16.5% of output.
ENE-004SenegalENE Nishati ReportedInstalled capacity was 1,901 MW in 2024, of which 481 MW was renewable; 85% of 2023 generation was non-renewable, and imports were 70% of primary energy supply in 2022. Sangomar produced 36.1 million barrels of oil in 2025 and Grand Tortue Ahmeyim began LNG production in February 2025.
WAT-005SenegalWAT Maji ReportedIn 2024, 88.0% of people used at least basic drinking water but 27.2% used safely managed water, 13.2% in rural areas; 62.5% used basic sanitation and 30.1% safely managed sanitation.
WAT-006SenegalWAT Maji ReportedFreshwater withdrawals were 11.9% of internal resources in 2022 and renewable internal water was 1,462 m³ per person; the World Bank projects withdrawals to grow 30% to 60% by 2035, with 81% for irrigation.
FOO-007SenegalFOO Chakula ReportedThe 2024 cereal harvest was forecast at 3.8 million tonnes, 8% above the five-year average. The March 2026 Cadre Harmonisé projected 836,786 people in Crisis or worse for June to August 2026, and 27.7% of people faced moderate or severe food insecurity in 2024.
HLT-008SenegalHLT Afya ReportedWHO counted 358 confirmed human cases and 28 deaths of Rift Valley fever in Senegal between 20 September and 30 October 2025, 78% of them in the Saint-Louis region; life expectancy at birth was 68.9 years in 2024.
BIO-009SenegalBIO Bioanuwai ReportedForest covered 45.0% of land in 2024, down from 45.4% in 2019; 27.5% of land and 3.1% of territorial waters were protected in 2025. Mangrove extent and ecosystem threat status are not bound.
FIN-010SenegalFIN Fedha ReportedReal GDP grew 6.7% in 2025 while non-hydrocarbon growth was 2.2%; the fiscal deficit narrowed from 13.4% to 6.4% of GDP, and the IMF DataMapper series puts gross debt at 127.7% of GDP.
CLI-011SenegalCLI Climate forcing ReportedThe 2025 rainy season killed 20 people, affected 8,336 and destroyed 946 ha of farmland. The World Bank estimates a drought year costs US$500 million, annual flood damage about US$100 million, and coastal erosion 3.3% of GDP.
SYS-012SenegalSYS Systemic Expert inputThe leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a heavy-rain flood in a dense urban area that interrupts water, power and clinics at the same time.
The full ledger, without scripts

06 · Editions and calendar

The desks’ editions for Senegal.

The desks’ editions for Senegal
DeskEditionStateIdentifier
GCRI Systems EvidenceSenegal 2026Drafted, in stewardship reviewNR-COUNTRY-SEN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
GRF Public DeliberationPublic Deliberation: Senegal 2026In preparation
GRA Capital ReadinessCapital Readiness: Senegal 2026In preparation
Standards ProgressNo edition in the 2026 Baseline cycleNot in this cycle
Academy CapabilityNo edition in the 2026 Baseline cycleNot in this cycle
Index MeasurementMeasurement: Senegal 2026In preparation

Calendar · 2026 Baseline

  1. 01Call opensset by the editor
  2. 02Contribution closeset by the editor
  3. 03Evidence close30 September 2026
  4. 04Desk review and releaseset by the editor
  5. 05Collection compilationset by the editor
  6. 06Collection releaseset by the editor
  7. 07Masahihishoafter release, as needed

Evidence cut NQ-SEN-2026-Q0-1. Next cycles: Q1 2027, Q2 2027, Q3 2027, Q4 2027; their dates are set by the editor.

07 · Take part

Read it, improve it, cite it.

Corrections log

Versions and corrections
VersionDateStateChangeNotice
NR-COUNTRY-SEN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026DRAFTBaseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,none
Data gaps3What the repository does not hold yet, and the source proposed for each
Data gaps and proposed sources
GapShown here asProposed source
Exposure values per hazard (people, assets, hectares)the edition’s own risk objects, without valuesthe Index country profile once the Index releases values, risksindex.com/sen/
The NHS-1 hazard types and their assignment to this edition’s risk objectsan editorial reading of the hazard wordsthe NHS-1 type assignment through the Registry
Infrastructure in the coupling matrixInfrastructure marked not assessedan Infrastructure row and column in the edition matrix at the next cut
RipotiChangia

Send evidence or a correction on Senegal.

Ripoti is the Consortium’s quarterly publication, written by six desks. This page sits with the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) Mifumo Evidence desk. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work. Sent to the wrong desk, it is forwarded, not refused.

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