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United States 2026

United States

The United States enters 2027 as the country carrying the largest share of the world’s recorded disaster losses. North America accounted for US$133 billion of the US$224 billion in global natural-disaster losses in 2025, about 70% of it insured, led by the Los Angeles wildfires at about US$53 billion.

Read the editionHazard exposure
Okutholiwe
12
each with its status and source
Sectors with findings
5 of 6
Infrastructure not assessed
Risk objects
4
order carries no rank
Imithombo
40
Evidence close 30 September 2026

01 · Readings

United States in six readings.

Six readings that frame the baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

  • 340.1millionpopulation, 2024 [4]
  • 1.4°Cwarming since 1970 [3]
  • 6,343Mt CO₂egross emissions, 2022 [1]
  • ≈43%electricity from natural gas [5]
  • 50mineralson the critical list [12]
  • 27eventsbillion-dollar disasters, 2024 [15]

02 · Sectors

Six sectors, one hexagon.

Water first, then Energy, Infrastructure, Food, Health and Biodiversity. Each count is the findings of this edition in that sector: coverage of the evidence, never a score. Infrastructure is not assessed: the edition holds no Infrastructure finding and its coupling matrix does not assess it.

  1. WATAmanzi2 findings

    322 bn gal/day Total freshwater and saline withdrawals, 2015. Reported

    Ample in the East, tight in the West; Colorado River under shortage; major aquifers depleting.

  2. ENEAmandla1 finding

    4.4% Data centres’ share of US electricity, 2023. Reported

    Gas-led power with growing renewables; reliability stressed in extremes; data-centre load rising.

  3. INFIngqalasizindanot assessed

    Ageing grids, water ezinqamula and roads; critical functions defined nationally.

  4. FOOUkudla1 finding

    13.5% Households food insecure, 2023. Reported

    A leading producer and exporter; 13.5% of households food insecure in 2023.

  5. HLTImpilo1 finding

    2,325 deaths Heat-related deaths, 2023. Reported

    Record heat deaths in 2023; smoke and storms load health services.

  6. BIOUkuhlukahluka kwemvelo1 finding

    40% Animal species at risk of extinction, 2023. Reported

    About 40% of animal species at risk; wildfire and land use the fastest pressures.

Outside the six sectors: Climate forcing 3, Finance 2, Systemic 1.

03 · Hazard exposure

The hazards this edition reads.

The edition’s own risk objects, in its order, each read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and horizon. The hexagon marks the sectors the cascade reaches; the domain beside each is an editorial reading of its hazard words.

  • RSK-USA-CLI-001

    Wildfire at the urban edge, with insurance retreat

    ReportedEQL 4

    Driver
    heat, drought and wind; longer fire seasons
    Exposure
    wildland–urban interface communities
    Vulnerability
    rising premiums and non-renewals [21]
    Capacity
    fire services; building codes; residual insurers
    Cascade
    CLI → BIO → HLT · CLI → FIN
    Horizon
    seasonal · 1 and 5 years

    Land and ecosystemsUmkhathi nesimo sezuluWater systems

  • RSK-USA-ENE-002

    Grid failure in heat or cold extremes

    ReportedEQL 4

    Driver
    extreme heat and cold; new load growth
    Exposure
    regions with thin reserve margins [32]
    Vulnerability
    winterisation gaps; gas–power interdependence [31]
    Capacity
    interconnection; demand response; storage
    Cascade
    ENE → WAT → HLT
    Horizon
    seasonal

    Umkhathi nesimo sezulu

  • RSK-USA-WAT-003

    Western drought and Colorado River shortage

    ReportedEQL 4

    Driver
    low flows; heat; over-allocation
    Exposure
    cities, farms and hydropower of the Southwest
    Vulnerability
    reservoirs near minimum levels
    Capacity
    shortage rules; conservation; groundwater
    Cascade
    WAT → ENE, FOO, cities
    Horizon
    1–5 years

    Water systemsUmkhathi nesimo sezulu

  • RSK-USA-CLI-004

    Compound hurricane, surge and inland flooding

    ReportedEQL 3

    Driver
    warmer oceans; heavier rainfall
    Exposure
    Gulf and Atlantic coasts; inland river valleys
    Vulnerability
    low flood-insurance take-up [40]
    Capacity
    forecasting and evacuation; flood insurance
    Cascade
    CLI → INF → ENE, HLT, FIN
    Horizon
    annual

    Umkhathi nesimo sezuluWater systems

Scenario · SCN-USA-HFG-01

Western heat, fire and grid summer

Under this scenario, results describe a conditional season under stated assumptions. It is not a forecast, and no intervention described here has been carried out.

3 of 12 findings name a hazard in their text. Show them

  1. 1CLI → WATheat and low flows cut reservoir and hydro output
  2. 2CLI → ENEpeak demand meets thin reserves; emergency alerts
  3. 3CLI → HLTheat deaths and emergency visits rise
  4. 4BIO → HLTwildfire smoke over large cities
  5. 5ENE → INFpublic-safety power shut-offs to prevent ignition
  6. 6CLI → FINinsured losses and further non-renewals

04 · Couplings

How the sectors carry risk into each other.

The United States matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core ezinqamula. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

Coupling matrix, from row to column
FromWATENEFOOHLTBIO
WAT·StrongStrongModerateStrong
ENEModerate·StrongStrongModerate
FOOModerateWeak·StrongStrong
HLTWeakWeakModerate·Weak
BIOStrongModerateStrongModerate·

Water: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Energy: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Food: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Health: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Biodiversity: 4 couplings out, 4 in. Infrastructure is not in the coupling matrix: none of the edition matrices types it, so it carries no value.

Cascade paths, in the edition’s order

  1. ENE → WAT → HLTcold or heat fails the grid; water pressure and care settings fail with itReported
  2. CLI → BIO → HLTwildfire smoke loads health services far from the fireReported
  3. CLI → FINwildfire and hurricane losses drive insurance retreatReported
  4. WAT → FOOaquifer decline and drought cut irrigated productionInferred
  5. AIC → ENEdata-centre load narrows reliability margins in extremesInferred

05 · Findings

Every finding of United States.

Search, filter by sector, system or status, and sort. The address bar keeps the view, so a filtered list can be shared. Every row opens the finding at its source.

All 12 findings

Findings of United States
IDEditionSector or systemIsimoStatement
CLI-001United StatesCLI Climate forcing ReportedGross greenhouse-gas emissions were 6,343 Mt CO₂e in 2022; net emissions were about 17% below 2005.
FIN-002United StatesFIN Ezezimali ReportedNorth America carried US$133 billion of 2025’s US$224 billion in global disaster losses; about US$93 billion was insured.
FIN-003United StatesFIN Ezezimali ReportedThe January 2025 Los Angeles wildfires caused about US$53 billion in losses, US$40 billion insured, the costliest wildfire disaster on record.
CLI-004United StatesCLI Climate forcing ReportedThe contiguous United States has warmed about 1.4 °C since 1970, faster than the global average.
CLI-005United StatesCLI Climate forcing ReportedThere were 27 billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in 2024, after a record 28 in 2023.
ENE-006United StatesENE Amandla ReportedData centres used about 4.4% of US electricity in 2023, with 6.7–12% projected for 2028.
WAT-007United StatesWAT Amanzi ReportedWater withdrawals were about 322 billion gallons a day in 2015; thermoelectric power took 41% and irrigation 37%.
WAT-008United StatesWAT Amanzi ReportedThe first-ever shortage on the Colorado River was declared in August 2021 for the lower basin.
HLT-009United StatesHLT Impilo ReportedHeat-related deaths reached a record 2,325 in 2023.
FOO-010United StatesFOO Ukudla Reported13.5% of US households were food insecure in 2023.
BIO-011United StatesBIO Ukuhlukahluka kwemvelo ReportedAbout 40% of animal species and 34% of plant species in the United States are at risk of extinction.
SYS-012United StatesSYS Systemic Expert inputThe leading compound pathway for 2027 testing runs from Western heat and drought through wildfire and grid stress into health, water and insurance availability.
The full ledger, without scripts

06 · Editions and calendar

The desks’ editions for United States.

The desks’ editions for United States
DeskEditionStateIdentifier
GCRI Systems EvidenceUnited States 2026Drafted, in stewardship reviewNR-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
GRF Public DeliberationPublic Deliberation: United States 2026In preparation
GRA Capital ReadinessCapital Readiness: United States 2026In preparation
Standards ProgressNo edition in the 2026 Baseline cycleNot in this cycle
Academy CapabilityNo edition in the 2026 Baseline cycleNot in this cycle
Index MeasurementMeasurement: United States 2026In preparation

Calendar · 2026 Baseline

  1. 01Call opensset by the editor
  2. 02Contribution closeset by the editor
  3. 03Evidence close30 September 2026
  4. 04Desk review and releaseset by the editor
  5. 05Collection compilationset by the editor
  6. 06Collection releaseset by the editor
  7. 07Ukulungiswaafter release, as needed

Evidence cut NQ-USA-2026-Q0-1. Next cycles: Q1 2027, Q2 2027, Q3 2027, Q4 2027; their dates are set by the editor.

07 · Take part

Read it, improve it, cite it.

Corrections log

Versions and corrections
VersionDateStateChangeNotice
NR-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026DRAFTBaseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,none
Data gaps3What the repository does not hold yet, and the source proposed for each
Data gaps and proposed sources
GapShown here asProposed source
Exposure values per hazard (people, assets, hectares)the edition’s own risk objects, without valuesthe Index country profile once the Index releases values, risksindex.com/usa/
The NHS-1 hazard types and their assignment to this edition’s risk objectsan editorial reading of the hazard wordsthe NHS-1 type assignment through the Registry
Infrastructure in the coupling matrixInfrastructure marked not assessedan Infrastructure row and column in the edition matrix at the next cut
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