Early warning capability
Early warning saves lives only when forecasts, thresholds, institutions and actions work together under pressure. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) contributes science and programme capacity to that chain: forecast verification, warning-support information, preparedness analysis and controlled exercises. It does not issue official warnings. Official issuance and dispatch stay with the authorized national services, and nothing on this page or in the programme is designed to replace them. Return to GCRI programmes.
- Institution
- The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
- Service level
- R0: information and enquiries
Programme board
Country programme A · Early warning capability · Cycle 1 of 4
- Workstreams active8Active
- Milestones due this quarter3Watch
- Decisions pending with owners4Watch
- Open risks7
Workstreams
by stage
Gates
- Requestowner named
- Scoping noteboundary
- Qualifiedinputs
- BuildFoundry
- Testcontrolled
- Publishwith limits
- Decisionauthority
GCRI · Programme boardProgramme board, in outline: domain structure with placeholder names and illustrative values, not a record.
The short answer.
Early warning capability at GCRI is its science and programme support to the warning chain: forecast verification, warning-support information, preparedness analysis and controlled exercises. GCRI issues no official warnings; issuance and dispatch stay with the authorized national agencies, and simulated warnings in exercises are never confused with reality.
Scoping to review.
Fig.A programme from scoping to the owner's decision. Design, not a record.
Disaster exposure and reach in Indonesia.
Where response must travel furthest from a large city, with the roads, airports and ports that carry relief, shown for Indonesia as an example geography for this subject.
Where GCRI contributes to the warning chain.
| Link in the chain | Contribution | Stays with |
|---|---|---|
| Forecast fitness | Verification of forecasts against observations, with uncertainty | The forecasting service |
| Thresholds and triggers | Evaluation of trigger definitions and their performance | The authority that sets them |
| Warning support | Information that helps a service prepare a warning | The authorized issuer |
| Preparedness | Gap analysis of readiness, logistics and roles | The responsible agencies |
| Exercises | Controlled exercises with independent observation | The exercise owner |
Simulation is never confused with reality.
- A master scenario events list with exercise controllers and simulation cells.
- Independent evaluators who test objectives and observable performance, not attendance.
- Time control, safety holds and an explicit real-world-emergency override.
- Simulated warnings never reach live audiences, and real infrastructure is never an unapproved target.
- Dissent and adverse findings are preserved in the after-action record.
What a preparedness engagement produces.
- A preparedness gap analysis
- A scenario package
- Warning and trigger verification
- Exercise observations and an improvement plan
- Handoffs to the competent authorities
Terms used on this page.
Each term as this page uses it. Where a standard-setting body defines the term, the wording follows that body.
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| Early warning system | An integrated system of hazard monitoring, forecasting, risk assessment, warning communication and preparedness that lets people and institutions act before a hazard strikes, in UNDRR terminology. |
| Anticipatory action | Pre-agreed action and finance released on a forecast or early warning trigger, before a hazard's peak impact. |
| Simulation exercise | A practice, training or evaluation activity in which an emergency is described or simulated and participants respond as they would in reality, so that plans and capacities can be tested, as WHO's exercise manual describes. |
| Forecast skill | How much better a forecast performs than a reference such as climatology, measured over many past forecasts with scores such as the continuous ranked probability score. |
What is open today.
The current service level is R0: information and enquiries. Disaster-management authorities, hydrometeorological services and humanitarian organizations can enquire at programmes@therisk.global. Research is described on Early warning research; governance of disasters and crises is examined by The Global Risks Forum (GRF) on Disaster and crisis governance. Nexus is not an emergency service. In immediate danger, contact your local emergency services.
Questions and answers.
Does GCRI issue warnings?
Can a trigger evaluated here release funds automatically?
Does GCRI work with national hydrometeorological services?
Who can request an exercise?
Around GCRI.
Start with an enquiry.
The current service level is R0: information and enquiries. An enquiry receives a reference and names the next step; applications, payments, compute allocations and registrations open only when their team, terms and review capacity exist.