GCRI · Programmes
Early warning capability
Early warning saves lives only when forecasts, thresholds, institutions and actions work together under pressure. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) strengthens that chain with forecast verification, warning-support information, preparedness analysis and controlled exercises. It issues no warnings. Warnings and dispatch stay with authorised national services. Part of GCRI programmes.
01Workspace
The workspace for early warning capability.
GCRI · GCRI · Programme boardIllustrative
Programme board
Country programme A · Early warning capability · Cycle 1 of 4 · Example interface, not a record
- Workstreams active8Active
- Milestones due this quarter3Watch
- Decisions pending with owners4Watch
- Open risks7
Quarter review dueGCRI · GCRI
Workstreams
by stage
Scoping02
Report edition planningWS-427 · owner: National Desk
Evidence label auditWS-362 · owner: National Desk
In delivery02
Country programme formationMilestone M4 · slipping
Methods review cycleMilestone M3 · on plan
Review01
National Model buildIndependent reviewer named
Closed01
Annual mission designClosure note on record
Gates
- Requestowner named
- Scoping noteboundary
- Qualifiedinputs
- BuildFoundry
- Testcontrolled
- Publishwith limits
- Decisionauthority
GCRI · Programme board. Programme board: example names and illustrative values, not a record.
02Contribution
Where GCRI contributes to the warning chain.
| Link in the chain | Contribution | Stays with |
|---|---|---|
| Forecast fitness | Verification of forecasts against observations, with uncertainty | The forecasting service |
| Thresholds and triggers | Evaluation of trigger definitions and their performance | The authority that sets them |
| Warning support | Information that helps a service prepare a warning | The authorised issuer |
| Preparedness | Gap analysis of readiness, logistics and roles | The responsible agencies |
| Exercises | Controlled exercises with independent observation | The exercise owner |
03Geography
Hazards now worldwide.
Flood water, active fires and rain across the world, from NASA GIBS. Each layer carries its own date.
The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.
Layers 3
Hazards now, for this page
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed (clouds leave gaps)
- Source
- VIIRS Global Flood Product (NASA LANCE)
- Provider
- NASA LANCE
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite detection; clouds leave gaps
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-14
- Resolution
- about 250 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite detection; clouds leave gaps. Satellite or model raster as the provider publishes it. Clouds, swath gaps and retrieval error leave gaps and noise; values are indicators, not measurements at a place.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed (clouds and overpass timing leave gaps)
- Source
- VIIRS NOAA-20 375 m (FIRMS) (NASA LANCE FIRMS)
- Provider
- NASA LANCE FIRMS
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite detection; clouds and overpass timing leave gaps
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-13
- Resolution
- about 500 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite hot-spot detections for the day shown, including gas flares and industrial heat; not a confirmed fire, an incident report or a warning.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Estimated
- Source
- GPM IMERG (NASA GES DISC)
- Provider
- NASA GES DISC
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite estimate, near real time
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-12
- Resolution
- about 2 km grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite estimate, near real time. Satellite or model raster as the provider publishes it. Clouds, swath gaps and retrieval error leave gaps and noise; values are indicators, not measurements at a place.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed
- Source
- VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance (NASA LANCE)
- Provider
- NASA LANCE
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite image
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-14
- Resolution
- about 250 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite image. Satellite or model raster as the provider publishes it. Clouds, swath gaps and retrieval error leave gaps and noise; values are indicators, not measurements at a place.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Estimated
- Source
- Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Columbia University))
- Provider
- NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Columbia University)
- Licence
- CC BY 4.0
- Vintage
- null; Census-based estimate, static (2020)
- Resolution
- about 1 km grid
- Uncertainty
- Census-based estimate of people per square kilometre in 2020, shown as exposure context; not a count of people affected by any hazard.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Modelled (latest year GIBS publishes)
- Source
- MODIS Terra and Aqua land cover (MCD12Q1) (NASA LP DAAC)
- Provider
- NASA LP DAAC
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- yearly; Satellite classification; latest year GIBS publishes
- Newest at build
- 2024-01-01
- Resolution
- about 500 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite land cover classes for the year shown, including croplands; a classification with known errors, not a farm register.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
Keyboard, with the map focused
Hold Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll to zoom
Latest available
NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth
Loading the latest NASA imagery.
Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.
Hazards now, framed on the world.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date. They are indicators, not assessments of any place.
Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · NASA EONET · U.S. Geological Survey · NASA JPL OPERA DIST-ALERTSources and licences
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS), VIIRS 375 m active fire product, NASA LANCE; vector tiles via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- GPM IMERG precipitation, NASA Precipitation Processing System; distributed by the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). doi:10.7927/H49C6VHW. CC BY 4.0
- MODIS land products (vegetation indices, gross primary production, land cover), NASA LP DAAC and LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). Cite as: NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Spacesystems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. doi:10.5067/ASTER/ASTGTM.003. NASA open data
- Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
- © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). ODbL
- Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
- Live events: NASA Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker (EONET); events are indicative and keep their original source links.
- Live: NASA EONET Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
- Live: U.S. Geological Survey Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
- Observed (EO): NASA JPL OPERA DIST-ALERT (contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2026). We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- River discharge forecast, 30 days with range (GloFAS via Open-Meteo): Contains modified Copernicus Emergency Management Service information 2026; not a flood warning.
- Weather data by Open-Meteo.com (https://open-meteo.com/), licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
- Optional layers (20 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.
Layers and dates
- Flood water, 3-day composite: VIIRS Global Flood Product, NASA LANCE · 14 Oct 2026
- Active fires and thermal anomalies: VIIRS NOAA-20 375 m (FIRMS), NASA LANCE FIRMS · 13 Oct 2026
- Precipitation rate, daily mean: GPM IMERG, NASA GES DISC · 12 Oct 2026
- True colour: VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
- Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · static
- Land cover type (IGBP), yearly: MODIS Terra and Aqua land cover (MCD12Q1), NASA LP DAAC · 2024
04Systems
Tools designed for the work.
EWS
Forecast verification
Forecast verification and warning support; issuing warnings stays with authorised parties. See NXS-EWS (multi-hazard monitoring and warning).
AAP
Anticipatory action
Trigger evaluation and preparedness, with no automatic fund release or dispatch. See NXS-AAP (anticipatory action and triggers).
05Process
How the process runs.
Process
Early warning capability: Policy question to decision
A priority becomes a question, evidence, a decision case and a limited publication; the competent authority decides, never the programme.
01 Question
- 01A priority becomes a questionStep · Universe; national counterpartsA priority becomes a researchable question with stated criteria. National counterparts own the agenda, data and decisions.
- 03Scientific and stakeholder challengeStep · GCRI; the Global Risks Forum (GRF)Scientific and affected-stakeholder challenge informs mission selection and methods.
02 Evidence and options
- 04Assemble the evidenceStep · GCRIMethods, labelled data and uncertainty are assembled. Every finding carries one of nine evidence labels.
- 06Decision case with optionsRecord · The decision owner named in the caseA decision case binds owner, alternatives, evidence and deadline. It needs sensitivity and robustness.
03 Review and publication
- 07G6 · Publication authorisedGate · The Global Risks ForumGRF authorises publication of results that have passed scientific and editorial review. It cannot publish personal data.
- 08Publish with method, uncertainty and limitsRecord · ReportsFindings are published with their method, uncertainty and limits. An edition is published after review, not to a calendar.
04 Outside the programme
- 02Competent authority decidesDecision · The competent authorityThe authority or institution decides under its own rules. The authority decides; the programme informs.
- 05Action and implementation stay with the ownersActor · The relevant government, operator or licensed institutionDecisions and execution stay with the relevant government, operator or licensed institution. The programme records one only if shared.
05 Learning
- 09Corrections and lessons feed the next agendaStep · UniverseCorrections and lessons feed the next annual agenda. The findings of one year set the mandate of the next.
The Nexus cycle · Decision rights · The programme yearDesigned programme process, not a record of operation. No cycle has run and every programme is at service level R0. A gate is a programme decision, never a public-authority approval, certification or deployment authorisation.
06Exercise controls
Simulation is never confused with reality.
- A master scenario events list with exercise controllers and simulation cells.
- Independent evaluators who test objectives and observable performance, not attendance.
- Time control, safety holds and an explicit real-world-emergency override.
- Simulated warnings never reach live audiences, and real infrastructure is never an unapproved target.
- Dissent and adverse findings are preserved in the after-action record.
07Deliverables
What a preparedness engagement produces.
- A preparedness gap analysis
- A scenario package
- Warning and trigger verification
- Exercise observations and an improvement plan
- Handoffs to the competent authorities
08Status
What is open today.
Information and enquiries are open today. Disaster-management authorities, hydrometeorological services and humanitarian organisations can write to the contact form. The research is on Early warning research. The Global Risks Forum (GRF) examines the governance of disasters on Disaster and crisis governance. The Consortium is not an emergency service. In immediate danger, contact your local emergency services.
09Questions
Questions and answers.
Does GCRI issue warnings?
No. Authority warnings are issued only by authorised national services. GCRI supports their work with verification, analysis and exercises.
Can a trigger evaluated here release funds automatically?
No. There is no automatic fund release or dispatch. Decisions stay with the competent authority and the financial institution concerned.
Does GCRI work with national hydrometeorological services?
Source agencies such as hydrometeorological and geological services can agree a source and methods interface. Their original source authority is retained, and programme estimates stay labelled as estimates. No specific agreement is claimed on this page.
Who can request an exercise?
A relevant authority, operator, humanitarian organisation or technical programme, with an approved scope and an exercise owner.
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation
Bring a method, a dataset or a question.
Information and enquiries are open today. An enquiry receives a reference and names the next step; applications, payments, compute allocations and registrations open only when their team, terms and review capacity exist.
Legal
Legal documents.
Maps, data and figures on this site are shown for context and general information. They are not advice, forecasts or warnings; the limits of the information are set out in the Disclaimers and Data Notices.