GCRI · علم سامانه‌ها و مدل‌سازی
روش‌ها و عدم قطعیت
The methods سامانه‌ها Science and Modelling relies on: their equations and assumptions, the data they need, how they are validated and the limits of what they can show.
The workspace for methods and uncertainty.
Evidence register
Systems science · Methods and uncertainty · Example interface, not a record
نشانگرها
unit · cadence · label
| Models in library | کشوری | monthly | آمارهای منتشرشده | SP-9504 |
| Models with validation record | of models | monthly | DERIVED | SP-6894 |
| Coupled runs completed | runs | weekly | مشاهده‌شده | SP-0370 |
| Reuse across platforms | uses | quarterly | DERIVED | SP-3045 |
Source passport
- منبع
- Model library
- پروانه
- open · attribution
- متولی
- Research partner
- پوشش
- 94 pct of places
- محدودیت‌های شناخته‌شده
- sparse in uplands
Coverage by place
Systems Science and Modelling · Evidence register. Evidence register: example names and illustrative values, not a record.
The methods in use.
- 01مهندسی سامانه‌هاRequirements for decision models · Interface control for coupled modelsApplied here
- 02احتمال و آمارBayesian calibration · Proper scoring of predictions · Ensemble statisticsApplied here
- 03کمّی‌سازی عدم قطعیت و اعتبارسنجی مدلUncertainty budgets · Surrogate models for expensive simulations · Credibility assessmentApplied here
- 04علم شبکه و سرایتCommon network representations · Contagion model comparison · Multilayer analysisApplied here
- 05سامانه‌های پیچیده و مدل‌سازی عامل‌بنیانAgent-based model standards · Feedback and tipping point analysis · Early warning indicatorsApplied here
- 06بهینه‌سازی و پژوهش عملیاتProblem formulation guidance · Robust and stochastic comparisons · Solver benchmarkingApplied here
- 07تحلیل تصمیم در شرایط عدم قطعیتFraming the decision before the model · Value of information for modelsApplied here
- 08محاسبات با عملکرد بالا، ابری و لبه‌ایEnsemble design within budgets · Workflow orchestration · Reproducible environmentsApplied here
Each method, its role in this field and how it is checked.
- مهندسی سامانه‌هاRole hereSystems engineering is the method this platform stewards for the network.Checks appliedRequirements traceability; Interface review; Change impact analysis
- Probability statisticsRole hereProbability and statistics are the language of uncertainty in modelling.Checks appliedPosterior predictive checks; Prior sensitivity; Scoring on held-out data
- کمّی‌سازی عدم قطعیتRole hereUncertainty quantification and model validation is a method this platform stewards.Checks appliedEmulator validation; Interval coverage; Structural comparison
- علم شبکهRole hereNetwork science and contagion is a method this platform stewards for the network.Checks appliedMissing link sensitivity; Model comparison; Event validation
- سامانه‌های پیچیدهRole hereComplex systems and agent-based modelling is a method this platform stewards.Checks appliedPattern-oriented validation; Robustness of tipping points; False alarm assessment
- OptimisationRole hereOptimisation and operations research is a method this platform stewards.Checks appliedFormulation review; Solution verification; Out-of-sample testing
- تحلیل تصمیمRole hereDecision analysis under uncertainty connects models to choices.Checks appliedDecision relevance review; Sensitivity of choice; Communication testing
- ComputingRole hereHigh-performance, cloud and edge computing determine which models can be run, how many ensemble members and scenarios are feasible, and whether results can be reproduced.Checks appliedCross-platform reruns; Resource accounting; Failure recovery testing
نحوهٔ اجرای فرایند.
Process explorer · Process
Methods and uncertainty: PRISMA 2020 review reporting
10 steps·4 مرحله
فرایند
Methods and uncertainty: PRISMA 2020 review reporting
PRISMA 2020 is a reporting guideline for systematic reviews; the steps follow its checklist, not a mandated sequence, and no Nexus document adopts it.
01 Plan
- 01Registration and protocolRecord · The review teamThe guideline asks for registration details, access to the protocol and any amendments.
- 02Eligibility criteriaRecord · The review teamThe guideline asks for the inclusion and exclusion criteria and how studies were grouped.
02 Find and select
- 03Search: sources and strategiesStep · The review teamThe guideline asks for the information sources and the full search strategies. It does not fix which sources are used.
- 04Selection of studiesStep · The review teamThe guideline asks how studies were judged eligible, including how many reviewers screened. It does not fix the number of reviewers.
- 05Flow diagramسابقهThe flow diagram shows the number of records found, the number of studies included and the reasons for exclusion.
03 Analyse
- 06Data collectionStep · The review teamThe guideline asks how data were collected from reports and which data items were sought.
- 07Risk of biasStep · The review teamThe guideline asks for the methods and tools used to assess risk of bias.
- 08SynthesisModel · The review teamThe guideline asks for the effect measures and the synthesis methods. It does not prescribe meta-analysis.
- 09Certainty of evidenceStep · The review teamThe guideline asks for the methods used to assess certainty, and reports the result per outcome. It does not name a grading scale.
04 Report
- 10Review reportسابقهThe guideline helps authors report why the review was done, what they did and what they found.
گزارش‌هاOutline of an externally published reporting guideline, not a Nexus process and not a record of operation. PRISMA 2020 mainly covers reviews of intervention effects. No Nexus page names it. Every programme is at service level R0.
Where uncertainty in systems modelling analysis comes from, and how it is shown.
| منبع | Why it matters here | How it is reported |
|---|---|---|
| پیوستگی | Interfaces between models introduce inconsistencies | Interface assumptions documented |
| ساختاری | Different models disagree | Intercomparison |
| Parameters | Many are poorly constrained | تحلیل حساسیت |
| Scenarios | Deep uncertainty | Scenario discovery |
How uncertainty is reported.
- 01
State assumptions
Each analysis lists its assumptions and the data it depends on.
- 02
Quantify where possible
Ranges and confidence are reported alongside central estimates.
- 03
Validate and compare
Models are checked against observations and, where possible, against other models.
- 04
Publish limits
What an analysis cannot show is stated beside what it can.
Where this page’s references lead.
نهادها و اسنادی که این صفحه بر پایهٔ آن‌ها خوانده می‌شود. وضعیت و ویراست‌ها تغییر می‌کنند؛ هر پیوند به نهاد صادرکننده می‌رود.
پرسش و پاسخ.
Are the methods open?
شواهد را از همین صفحه ارسال کنید.
Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.
- ایمیلدرگاه GW-GCRIاز همین صفحه ارسال کنیدشواهد، یک اصلاحیه، یک مورد، یک روش، یک داوری، یک ترجمه یا ورودی نمایه. با برچسب این صفحه میرسد تا ویراستار مسئول آن را دریافت کند.
- Zenodoسپردهٔ بازآن را واگذار کنید و به جامعه ارائه دهیدسابقهٔ خود را با شناسهٔ ORCID خود در Zenodo منتشر کنید و سپس آن را در همانجا به جامعهٔ Reports ارسال کنید. گزینشگران آن را داوری می‌کنند؛ DOI از آنِ شما میماند.
- گزارش‌هاGCRIهمهٔ راههای مشارکت را ببینیدانواع مشارکت، نحوهٔ بررسی هر یک، اعتباری که دریافت میکنید، مجوز و آنچه هرگز پذیرفته نمیشود.
هرگز داده شخصی، جزئیات حساس زیرساخت یا چیزی را که حق اشتراکش را ندارید نفرستید. هر مشارکت پیش از استفاده داوری می‌شود؛ ارسال آن حق مؤلفی یا ویرایشی نمی‌دهد و حمایت مالی هرگز یافته‌ای را نمی‌خرد.
یک روش، یک مجموعه‌داده یا یک پرسش بیاورید.
اطلاعات و درخواست‌ها امروز باز است. هر درخواست یک شمارهٔ پیگیری می‌گیرد و گام بعدی را مشخص می‌کند؛ درخواست‌های عضویت، پرداخت‌ها، تخصیص رایانش و ثبت‌نام‌ها تنها زمانی باز می‌شوند که تیم، شرایط و ظرفیت داوری آن‌ها فراهم باشد.
اسناد حقوقی.
نقشه‌ها، داده‌ها و ارقام این سایت برای زمینه و اطلاعات عمومی نشان داده می‌شوند. توصیه، پیش‌بینی یا هشدار نیستند؛ حدود این اطلاعات در سلب مسئولیت‌ها و اعلامیه‌های داده بیان شده است.