GCRI · زانستی سیستەمەکان و مۆدێلسازی
Methods and uncertainty
The methods سیستەم Science and Modelling relies on: their equations and assumptions, the data they need, how they are validated and the limits of what they can show.
The workspace for methods and uncertainty.
Evidence register
Systems science · Methods and uncertainty · Example interface, not a record
نیشاندەرەکان
unit · cadence · label
| Models in library | وڵات | monthly | ئامارە بڵاوکراوەکان | SP-9504 |
| Models with validation record | of models | monthly | DERIVED | SP-6894 |
| Coupled runs completed | runs | weekly | چاودێریکراو | SP-0370 |
| Reuse across platforms | uses | quarterly | DERIVED | SP-3045 |
Source passport
- سەرچاوە
- Model library
- مۆڵەت
- open · attribution
- پارێزەر
- Research partner
- داپۆشین
- 94 pct of places
- سنووردارییە ناسراوەکان
- sparse in uplands
Coverage by place
Systems Science and Modelling · Evidence register. Evidence register: example names and illustrative values, not a record.
The methods in use.
- 01ئەندازیاری سیستەمەکانRequirements for decision models · Interface control for coupled modelsApplied here
- 02ئەگەر و ئامارBayesian calibration · Proper scoring of predictions · Ensemble statisticsApplied here
- 03ژماردنی نادڵنیایی و پشتڕاستکردنەوەی مۆدێلUncertainty budgets · Surrogate models for expensive simulations · Credibility assessmentApplied here
- 04زانستی تۆڕ و سەرایەتCommon network representations · Contagion model comparison · Multilayer analysisApplied here
- 05سیستەمە ئاڵۆزەکان و مۆدێلسازی بە ئەیجێنتAgent-based model standards · Feedback and tipping point analysis · Early warning indicatorsApplied here
- 06باشترکردن و توێژینەوەی کارپێکردنProblem formulation guidance · Robust and stochastic comparisons · Solver benchmarkingApplied here
- 07شیکاری بڕیار لە ژێر نادڵنیاییداFraming the decision before the model · Value of information for modelsApplied here
- 08کۆمپیوتەری کارایی بەرز، هەور و لێوارEnsemble design within budgets · Workflow orchestration · Reproducible environmentsApplied here
Each method, its role in this field and how it is checked.
- ئەندازیاری سیستەمەکانRole hereSystems engineering is the method this platform stewards for the network.Checks appliedRequirements traceability; Interface review; Change impact analysis
- Probability statisticsRole hereProbability and statistics are the language of uncertainty in modelling.Checks appliedPosterior predictive checks; Prior sensitivity; Scoring on held-out data
- پێوانەکردنی نادڵنیاییRole hereUncertainty quantification and model validation is a method this platform stewards.Checks appliedEmulator validation; Interval coverage; Structural comparison
- زانستی تۆڕRole hereNetwork science and contagion is a method this platform stewards for the network.Checks appliedMissing link sensitivity; Model comparison; Event validation
- سیستەمە ئاڵۆزەکانRole hereComplex systems and agent-based modelling is a method this platform stewards.Checks appliedPattern-oriented validation; Robustness of tipping points; False alarm assessment
- OptimisationRole hereOptimisation and operations research is a method this platform stewards.Checks appliedFormulation review; Solution verification; Out-of-sample testing
- شیکاریی بڕیارRole hereDecision analysis under uncertainty connects models to choices.Checks appliedDecision relevance review; Sensitivity of choice; Communication testing
- ComputingRole hereHigh-performance, cloud and edge computing determine which models can be run, how many ensemble members and scenarios are feasible, and whether results can be reproduced.Checks appliedCross-platform reruns; Resource accounting; Failure recovery testing
چۆن پرۆسەکە کار دەکات.
Process explorer · Process
Methods and uncertainty: PRISMA 2020 review reporting
10 steps·4 قۆناغ
پرۆسە
Methods and uncertainty: PRISMA 2020 review reporting
PRISMA 2020 is a reporting guideline for systematic reviews; the steps follow its checklist, not a mandated sequence, and no Nexus document adopts it.
01 Plan
- 01Registration and protocolRecord · The review teamThe guideline asks for registration details, access to the protocol and any amendments.
- 02Eligibility criteriaRecord · The review teamThe guideline asks for the inclusion and exclusion criteria and how studies were grouped.
02 Find and select
- 03Search: sources and strategiesStep · The review teamThe guideline asks for the information sources and the full search strategies. It does not fix which sources are used.
- 04Selection of studiesStep · The review teamThe guideline asks how studies were judged eligible, including how many reviewers screened. It does not fix the number of reviewers.
- 05Flow diagramتۆمارThe flow diagram shows the number of records found, the number of studies included and the reasons for exclusion.
03 Analyse
- 06Data collectionStep · The review teamThe guideline asks how data were collected from reports and which data items were sought.
- 07Risk of biasStep · The review teamThe guideline asks for the methods and tools used to assess risk of bias.
- 08SynthesisModel · The review teamThe guideline asks for the effect measures and the synthesis methods. It does not prescribe meta-analysis.
- 09Certainty of evidenceStep · The review teamThe guideline asks for the methods used to assess certainty, and reports the result per outcome. It does not name a grading scale.
04 Report
- 10Review reportتۆمارThe guideline helps authors report why the review was done, what they did and what they found.
ReportsOutline of an externally published reporting guideline, not a Nexus process and not a record of operation. PRISMA 2020 mainly covers reviews of intervention effects. No Nexus page names it. Every programme is at service level R0.
Where uncertainty in systems modelling analysis comes from, and how it is shown.
| سەرچاوە | Why it matters here | How it is reported |
|---|---|---|
| هاوبەستی | Interfaces between models introduce inconsistencies | Interface assumptions documented |
| Structural | Different models disagree | Intercomparison |
| Parameters | Many are poorly constrained | شیکاری هەستیاری |
| Scenarios | Deep uncertainty | Scenario discovery |
How uncertainty is reported.
- 01
State assumptions
Each analysis lists its assumptions and the data it depends on.
- 02
Quantify where possible
Ranges and confidence are reported alongside central estimates.
- 03
Validate and compare
Models are checked against observations and, where possible, against other models.
- 04
Publish limits
What an analysis cannot show is stated beside what it can.
Where this page’s references lead.
ئەو لەش و بەڵگەنامانەی ئەم لاپەڕەیەیان لەگەڵ دەخوێنرێتەوە. دۆخ و وەشانەکان دەگۆڕێن؛ هەر بەستەرێک دەچێتە لای لەشی دەرکەر.
پرسیار و وەڵام.
Are the methods open?
لەم لاپەڕەیەوە بەڵگە پێشکەش بکە.
Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.
- ئیمەیڵدەروازەی GW-GCRIلەم لاپەڕەیەوە بینێرەبەڵگە، ڕاستکردنەوە، بابەت، ڕێگا، پێداچوونەوە، وەرگێڕان یان تێکردنی پڕۆفایل. بە نیشانەی ئەم لاپەڕەیە دەگات، بۆ ئەوەی دەستکاریکەری خاوەنەکەی وەریبگرێت.
- Zenodoتەکیەی کراوەدایبنێ و بیدە بە کۆمەڵگاتۆماری خۆت لە Zenodo بە ORCID iD ی خۆت بڵاو بکەرەوە، پاشان لەوێ بیدە بە کۆمەڵگای Reports. سەرپەرشتیارەکان پێداچوونەوەی بۆ دەکەن؛ DOI هەر هی تۆیە.
- ReportsGCRIهەموو ڕێگاکانی بەشداری ببینەجۆرەکانی بەشداری، هەریەکە چۆن پێداچوونەوەی بۆ دەکرێت، چ ناوبردنێک وەردەگریت، مۆڵەتەکە و ئەوەی هەرگیز وەرناگیرێت.
هەرگیز داتای کەسی، وردەکاریی هەستیاری ژێرخان یان هیچ شتێک مەنێرە کە مافی بڵاوکردنەوەت نییە. بەشدارییەک پێش بەکارهێنان پێداچوونەوەی بۆ دەکرێت؛ ناردنی ماف نابەخشێت بە نووسەرایەتی یان بەڕێوەبردنی ڕاگەیاندن، و پاڵپشتی دارایی هەرگیز دۆزینەوەیەک ناکڕێت.
ڕێگایەک، کۆمەڵە داتایەک یان پرسیارێک بهێنە.
زانیاری و پرسیار ئەمڕۆ کراوەن. پرسیارێک ژمارەی ئاماژەی پێدەدرێت و هەنگاوی دواتر دیاری دەکات؛ داواکاری، پارەدان، تەرخانکردنی کۆمپیوتەر و تۆمارکردن تەنیا کاتێک دەکرێنەوە کە تیم، مەرج و توانای پێداچوونەوەیان هەبێت.
بەڵگەنامە یاساییەکان.
نەخشە، داتا و وێنەکانی ئەم ماڵپەڕە بۆ ناوەڕۆک و زانیاریی گشتی پیشان دراون. ئامۆژگاری، پێشبینی یان ئاگادارکردنەوە نین؛ سنوورەکانی زانیارییەکە لە ڕەتکردنەوەی بەرپرسیارێتی و ئاگاداریی داتادا دەستنیشان کراون.